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FILLY & MARE TURF DIARY OCTOBER 7, 2008 by Kellie Reilly This edition will focus on three recent North American preps for the October 24 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), and a fourth race that I hope will produce at least one contender for the showdown at Santa Anita, if not two. I'll conclude with a glance at Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1) for sophomores at Keeneland. Whether it has a bearing on the Breeders' Cup or not, the QEII usually identifies top prospects for next season. Partly because it was contested over the same course and distance as the Filly & Mare Turf, the September 27 Yellow Ribbon S. (G1) ranks as the most informative of the three explicit preps. The other reason for its importance was the presence of champion WAIT A WHILE (Maria's Mon), arguably the best American-based turf distaffer of them all when competing at her favorite venues, and she duly delivered. In contrast, the September 27 Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1) and this past Saturday's E.P. Taylor S. (Can-G1) are not above reproach. Each featured a front-running winner, DYNAFORCE (Dynaformer) and FOLK OPERA (Ire) (Singspiel [Ire]), respectively, who got away with larceny in conditions unlikely to be repeated in the Breeders' Cup. The contest that I am ardently promoting as a Breeders' Cup tune-up, last Friday's First Lady S. (G1) at Keeneland, witnessed a first-rate performance from FOREVER TOGETHER (Belong to Me) and a solid one from PRECIOUS KITTEN (Catienus). Both deserve a chance to line up nearly three weeks hence, but neither may go. Yellow Ribbon: Wait a While's margin of victory was not as eye-popping as her 2006 Yellow Ribbon triumph, when she romped by 4 1/2 lengths, but it would be fatuous to hold that against her. Indeed, this year's field was considerably deeper, and I also suspect that an older, wiser Wait a While is just not going to be as exuberantly dominant as she was as a three-year-old. Based on those premises, I believe that her 2008 Yellow Ribbon victory is every bit as good, if not better, than her score of two years ago. Despite being marooned in the far outside post 10, John Velazquez was able to maneuver her into a perfect stalking position early. From that point on, it was a patented Wait a While performance, as the Todd Pletcher mare accosted the leader on the far turn, seized command and held sway throughout the stretch to win by a convincing three-quarters of a length. The gray blitzed her final quarter in roughly :23.53 to finish 1 1/4 miles in 1:59.16. Now a perfect three-for-three at Santa Anita, Wait a While ranks as America's top hope to thwart the Europeans in the Breeders' Cup. For whatever it's worth, I'm compelled to mention that CARRIAGE TRAIL (Giant's Causeway), who ran an excellent second to Wait a While in the Ballston Spa H. (G2) last time out, annihilated the field in Sunday's Spinster S. (G1) on Keeneland's Polytrack. Extrapolating to different surfaces is hazardous, but this underscores the class of the mare that pressed Wait a While. For a similar reason, Yellow Ribbon runner-up VACARE (Lear Fan) deserves praise for posing the only danger to Wait a While in that final furlong. Vacare frittered away some energy when being very rank early, an especially counterproductive move when trying 1 1/4 miles for the first time. The Christophe Clement trainee eventually settled into her ground-saving spot, but she had to hold fire and await room just when Wait a While made her decisive move. Following the winner into the stretch, Vacare was about 1 1/2 lengths behind at the eighth-pole and did well to cut her deficit in half gradually. She is eligible to improve in her second try at the trip, but unless she ever manages to get first run on Wait a While, she's going to find it tough to turn the tables. Still, a repeat of this effort would make Vacare a major threat to crack the top three in the Breeders' Cup. Finishing fastest of all for third in the Yellow Ribbon was the honest BLACK MAMBA (NZ) (Black Minnaloushe), who filled that same spot in the 2007 edition behind Nashoba's Key and Citronnade. By the time she really gained momentum, the race was effectively over. If the John Sadler mare could mobilize earlier, she may be able to get a bit closer, but she still looks a shade below the top tier. In any event, Black Mamba always gives a good account of herself. Flower Bowl: Judging by her first two American outings, Dynaforce was entitled to land a major prize at some point. The Bill Mott trainee was just outdueled by MAURALAKANA (Fr) (Muhtathir [GB]) in the New York S. (G2) after a 10-month layoff, and next time out, ran a winning race in the Diana S. (G1), only be to be caught by the whirlwind known as Forever Together. If one ignored her subpar fifth in the Glens Falls H. (G3) on Labor Day, Dynaforce rated as a top contender in the Flower Bowl, and the bald fact that she won, upsetting Mauralakana, should occasion no great surprise. Her victory was rendered less than straightforward, though, by the race conditions. First, Belmont was a virtual bog, which immediately begs the question of who did, or didn't, cope with the yielding turf. Second, Dynaforce was allowed to enjoy an uncontested lead through a risible pace, even allowing for the ground. Compared to the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational S. (G1) held on the same day, her fractions were far slower in the 1 1/4-mile Flower Bowl: the Hirsch went in :24.97, :50.52 and 1:16.84 on the Widener Course, while the Flower Bowl went in :26.23, :52.87 and 1:19.22 on the inner turf. When this kind of tactical advantage is conceded to a classy mare, the result is probably a foregone conclusion, and so it proved here. To her credit, Mauralakana ran her heart out in defeat as the 123-pound highweight, spotting four pounds to Dynaforce. The Clement mare looked miserable early, tossing her head in disapproval when the pace slowed down to a crawl in front of her, but she managed to produce a blistering change of gear on the far turn to collar Dynaforce. For a few strides, as Mauralakana was revving up beneath a quiet Kent Desormeaux, Dynaforce was being shoved along vigorously by Alan Garcia, and it appeared as if Mauralakana had the upper hand. As soon as the pair entered the stretch, Dynaforce regrouped, lengthened stride and took off. She clearly enjoyed the rain-softened ground while rattling off her final quarter in :24.14 and galloped home by four lengths. Her time for the soggy 10 furlongs was 2:07.59, a far cry from the 2:01.31 posted by Mauralakana in their New York clash over the same course and distance in June. Mauralakana could not go with Dynaforce when the Flower Bowl became a test of brute strength in the mire, and her stride became noticeably shorter. She just held second by a neck from COMMUNIQUE (Smart Strike), whom she had defeated by 1 1/4 lengths in the Beverly D. S. (G1). This was not her best effort, and on firm turf, she may well have won. At the same time, it's no sure thing that Mauralakana would have beaten Dynaforce on firm turf. She barely did so in the New York, when she was at the peak of her powers and Dynaforce was ring-rusty. This sets the stage for a potential rubber match in the Filly & Mare Turf, if Dynaforce agrees to go. Mauralakana will get the ground she prefers, Dynaforce won't get the same pace set-up, and they'll come to blows at level weights. E.P. Taylor: Like Dynaforce in the Flower Bowl, Folk Opera was a logical threat in the E.P. Taylor, based on her solid European form. Successful in the Prix Jean Romanet (Fr-G2) over the classy Fair Breeze (Silvano [Ger]) two back, she was coming off a distant eighth to the phenomenal Zarkava (Zamindar) in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1). Moreover, Folk Opera habitually goes to the front, so no one should have been caught off guard by the fact that the Godolphin filly went straight to the lead at Woodbine. It's all the more mystifying, then, that her E.P. Taylor opponents let Frankie Dettori steal the race. Granted, there was not an abundance of early dash in here, but a couple of her foes had shown tactical speed in the past. In the circumstances, it was far worse for them to let Folk Opera traipse around the course, and they should have applied meaningful pressure. Predictably, she stayed on strongly in the stretch to defeat CALLWOOD DANCER (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) and an unlucky SEALY HILL (Point Given), who was trapped in traffic when the serious running started. J'RAY (Distant View), who was next to last through the first six furlongs, was a commendable fourth, but HOSTESS (Chester House) never landed a blow and raced evenly in seventh. This was not the same mare who set a new Saratoga course record in the Glens Falls, and just missed to Mauralakana and Dynaforce in the New York. Indeed, this was the second straight year that Hostess ran a poor seventh in the E.P. Taylor, suggesting that she does not enjoy Woodbine. She was originally supposed to run in the Flower Bowl, but scratched when the rains came. Had she gone to the Yellow Ribbon instead, we might be having a completely different discussion. At her best on rock-hard turf, Hostess could be a sneaky longshot if she lines up in the Filly & Mare Turf. If Folk Opera appears at Santa Anita, her forwardly placed style should serve her well. On the other hand, she's never encountered the Southern California-style of firm turf before, and she will find a much sharper course, unlike the vast, galloping tracks that suit her to a tee. It also goes without saying the field will be deeper, and less likely to give Dettori carte blanche to work his magic. First Lady: Forever Together rebounded from a subpar third to J'ray and Callwood Dancer in the Canadian S. (Can-G2) with an impressive victory at Keeneland. Demonstrating the wicked acceleration that was absent at Woodbine, the Jonathan Sheppard filly came charging from far back to overwhelm Precious Kitten and score readily by 1 1/2 lengths. Forever Together had to uncork an :11.39 seventh furlong just to get within striking range, summoned an eighth and final furlong in :11.71, and according to Trakus, covered a total of 32 more feet than Precious Kitten. All in all, it was an effort that stands up to scrutiny. In my view, Forever Together has earned a tilt at the Filly & Mare Turf, but her connections have not made a final decision. One key question that has yet to be answered is her ability to handle 1 1/4 miles. As I've mentioned in a previous diary, I'm convinced that the distance will hold no problems for her, both because of her running style and the maternal half of her pedigree. Her come-from-the-clouds victory in the nine-furlong Diana was simply smashing, and on that evidence, an extra furlong would not be insuperable. Of course, I would have preferred her 10-furlong debut to come in a prep, rather than the Breeders' Cup itself, and it would have been a natural progression to do so on the heels of her two races at nine furlongs. A program to drop back to a mile in the First Lady, then stretch out, does not make as much sense to me, and that leads me to suspect that perhaps the Breeders' Cup won't be in the cards. Then again, I'm no Hall of Famer like Sheppard. Precious Kitten ran a much more characteristic race in the First Lady after fading to fifth in the Beverly D. I was a little surprised to see her sprint to the lead, rather than letting DREAMING OF ANNA (Rahy) go. By taking the initiative, however, Precious Kitten denied Dreaming of Anna her most lethal weapon, and the tactic would have succeeded brilliantly, but for the explosiveness of Forever Together. Precious Kitten ran everyone else off their collective feet and crossed the wire with two lengths to spare over third-placer RUTHERIENNE (Pulpit), who has lost her pretensions to stardom but remains a useful yardstick. This was the second straight year that Precious Kitten was an honorable runner-up in the First Lady. In the 2007 edition, then a Grade 2, she was just subdued by Vacare. Notwithstanding her disappointing loss in the 1 3/16-mile Beverly D., I would love to see Precious Kitten take a swing at the Filly & Mare Turf, primarily because her finest hours have come in Southern California. She has yet to grace the Arcadia, California, oval, but she has looked imperious at Hollywood Park and Del Mar. I believe that her affinity for the Golden State could help to stretch her stamina. After all, Precious Kitten scored her only victory of the year, and a commanding one at that, in the 1 1/8-mile Gamely S. (G1) at Hollywood. She has not run up to that level anywhere else this season. If the Breeders' Cup were in any other region this year, it might be understandable for Bobby Frankel to pass and await a title defense in the Matriarch S. (G1). But how can Precious Kitten pass up a Breeders' Cup opportunity, possibly her last, in the state where she prospers? On the horizon: Keeneland has released the list of invitees for the QEII. While most of the expected participants garnered invitations, there was a notable exception. PURE CLAN (Pure Prize), still the divisional leader by my lights despite her runner-up effort in the Garden City S. (G1), has been left out of the party. That's no snub, for she is deliberately training up to the Filly & Mare Turf, according to the IEAH Stables website. Even without Pure Clan, the QEII shapes up as a rematch of the Garden City: winner BACKSEAT RHYTHM (El Corredor), third ARIEGE (Doneraile Court), fourth MY PRINCESS JESS (Stormy Atlantic), fifth RAW SILK (Malibu Moon) and sixth ALWAJEEHA (Dixieland Band) have all been invited to Keeneland. The other invitees are Del Mar Oaks (G1) heroine MAGICAL FANTASY (Diesis [GB]); San Clemente H. (G2) scorer STORM MESA (Sky Mesa); Pucker Up S. (G3) victress CLOSEOUT (Repriced); Flaming Page S. winner LICKETY LEMON (Lemon Drop Kid); Pleasant Temper S. queen MY BABY BABY (Bernstein); ROSA GRACE (GB) (Lomitas [GB]), a stakes winner in England and runner-up to Backseat Rhythm in the Lake Placid S. (G2); and SEFROUA (Kingmambo), a French stakes winner who was third to older mares in the Noble Damsel H. (G3) in her U.S. debut. In our next installment, I'll unveil my selections for the Filly & Mare Turf.
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