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FILLY & MARE TURF DIARY OCTOBER 21, 2008 by Kellie Reilly As with my selections for the Turf (G1) and Mile (G1), my chosen few for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) reflect to some degree my own rooting interests, which tend to influence my attempts at cool, dispassionate handicapping analysis. Since I have written at length about the preps in previous diaries over the course of the season, I'll confine myself to an uncharacteristically brief explanation for each of my selections. 1st -- Everything conspires to the advantage of champion WAIT A WHILE (Maria's Mon), in terms of the course, distance and the lack of an absolute European standout. In my very first diary of the year, I said that she would be a "potent force" in this race, and there's no compelling reason to alter that judgment now. Although the subsequent road has not been smooth, the classy gray has ultimately arrived here in peak form. The Todd Pletcher trainee is coming off a convincing score in the Yellow Ribbon S. (G1) at this 1 1/4-mile trip, which extended her local mark to a perfect three-for-three on her preferred firm turf. Her first victory over the course came in the 2006 Yellow Ribbon, during her championship campaign as a sophomore, and it's worth recalling how she concluded that season. In the 2006 Filly & Mare Turf, on a rain-affected course at Churchill Downs, Wait a While finished a creditable fourth to the phenomenal Ouija Board (GB) and the battle-hardened pair of Film Maker and Honey Ryder -- remember that at least one of those three won or placed in the past four straight renewals of this event. It's fair to say that this field, although well up to Breeders' Cup standard, doesn't have quite the same cache. An older Wait a While, on a course she loves, with one or two projected pacesetters to stalk, should earn a deserved triumph. 2nd -- FOREVER TOGETHER (Belong to Me) has a different profile from her fellow gray Wait a While in more ways than one, but her brilliant late kick makes her appealing. She is the late-comer to the party, who took the division by storm with a scintillating, last-to-first burst in the Diana S. (G1), in hindsight arguably the deepest turf distaff contest of the season, and most recently added the First Lady S. (G1) to her resume. A repeat of either of those efforts would render her a top threat here. I am not worried that the Jonathan Sheppard pupil is untested at this distance. While a superficial glance at her pedigree may cause concern, a deeper look offers a good deal of encouragement. Her broodmare sire Relaunch contributes some stamina, and her second damsire, Blushing Groom (Fr), is a high-quality influence who often appears in classic pedigrees, as well as in those of sprinter-milers. A bigger obstacle may be her come-from-the-clouds style, since Wait a While is not exactly easy prey, and Forever Together may have too much to do in the stretch. In any event, she will come charging late in true swashbuckling style. 3rd -- Irish invader HALFWAY TO HEAVEN (Ire) (Pivotal) is not on par with the past European-based winners of the Filly & Mare Turf -- Banks Hill (GB), Islington (Ire) and Ouija Board -- but she is as tough, game and genuine as they come. A natural born fighter, the Aidan O'Brien trainee clawed her way to narrow victories in the Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1), Nassau S. (Eng-G1) and most recently the Sun Chariot S. (Eng-G1), where she led throughout and refused to let the older Darjina, a first-rate yardstick, pass her. Even Halfway to Heaven's losses redound to her credit, since she has been beaten by the sublime Zarkava, Mile threat Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) and the top-class Lush Lashes (Galileo [Ire]). The dark gray has two problems to overcome. First is the distance. Principally a miler, she attempted nearly 1 1/4 miles once, in the aforementioned Nassau. In that contest, she literally had everything her own way, being forwardly placed during the early crawl, and she profited from the nightmare trip encountered by Lush Lashes, but Halfway to Heaven still only just held on by a fast-diminishing head. She won't have another benefit handed to her in this spot. The other matter is her vulnerability to those with a superior turn of foot, and she might be caught for pace in the stretch. Nevertheless, she will run her heart out as she aims to give her outstanding sire Pivotal a long overdue first success in this event, following the failed bids of Golden Apples (Ire) and Megahertz (GB). Longshot -- If I were a pure reasoning machine, I'd probably tout DYNAFORCE (Dynaformer), who could wind up being an overlay in this group. Although her four-length romp over MAURALAKANA (Fr) (Muhtathir [GB]) in the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) can't be taken too literally, since Dynaforce enjoyed a leisurely lead on boggy ground, the Bill Mott mare has other solid credentials. Dynaforce ran a winning race in the Diana, but was just gunned down by Forever Together late, and she narrowly missed to Mauralakana in the New York S. (G2) in her U.S. debut. The Flower Bowl has historically proven to be a valuable guide to this affair, but intriguingly, not in 2003, the only year the Filly & Mare Turf was held at Santa Anita. That's either a tantalizing clue, or a meaningless factoid, and we won't know for sure which one it is until after the race. Despite the reasonable case for Dynaforce, my long-standing loyalties, goaded by an inclination to be bold and go for a real outsider, sway me in favor of the Christophe Clement-trained VACARE (Lear Fan) as my longshot of choice. Unlike Mauralakana, who progressed into a pleasant surprise for the barn, Vacare has targeted the Breeders' Cup all along. As outlined in my last diary, she was a sneakily good second to Wait a While in the Yellow Ribbon in her 1 1/4-mile debut. Bred along similar lines to 2000 Filly & Mare Turf heroine Perfect Sting, and from the family of champion Serena's Song, Vacare has abundant back class that will not be reflected in her odds. With improvement expected in her second try at the trip, she has a solid chance of upsetting the gray brigade.
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