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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING JULY 1, 2006 Kentucky Juvenile Colts by Tim Holland With the current Churchill Downs meet nearing its completion and the most important race for the two-year-old colts to date, the Bashford Manor S. (G3), to be run on July 8, this is a good time for handicappers to look back at the juvenile maiden races run during the past couple of months. Of all the colts to break their maiden at Churchill Downs this meet, the Steve Asmussen trained CHACE CITY (Carson City) is the most accomplished. After winning on Derby Day, he shipped to Woodbine to capture the Victoria S. on June 18. Dispatched as the second choice in the seven-horse field, he broke well and took the lead before, according to the chart comment, he "ducked in repeatedly while gawking around, brushed the rail with a furlong to run then continued to widen under a hand ride." Back training at Churchill, Chace City will certainly be the one to beat if the Bashford Manor is his chosen target, and sprinting definitely looks like his game As a $400,000 Keeneland September Sales purchase, Chace City was half as expensive as NAPA CAT, who cost Stonestreet Stables $800,000. Also trained by Asmussen, Napa Cat is by Storm Cat and is out of Compassionate (Housebuster), who won the Miss Grillo S.(G3), and is in turn out of Santa Margarita Invitational H. (G1) winner Adored (Seattle Slew). This colt won his maiden in good fashion on opening day but has only turned in two moderate looking works since, the most recent being on May 22, which leads one to believe that he may have encountered a problem. The highest BRIS Speed figure for any colt in a maiden race during the meet is the 97 earned by MINEFIELD (Silver Deputy), who drew off to win by 8 1/2 lengths on May 14. One of several successful juveniles at Churchill trained by Todd Pletcher, Minefield cost $400,000 as a yearling at Saratoga last summer and was the public's second choice in his debut. CARSON CAMP (Carson City) was the favorite and lost all chance when badly bumped at the break, but it probably wouldn't have made a difference to the result as he raced poorly in his next start against slightly easier at Arlington Park. One important factor when handicapping baby races is to locate "key" races and while Carson Camp did nothing to make the form of Minefield's victory look solid, others have. Indeed, third-place finisher NO LAC O ZIP (City Zip) placed third in his next two starts versus maiden special weight company, while also-rans EL POCO DIABLO (Menifee) and SHIPMATE (Cryptoclearance) won and finished second, respectively, in their next races. Using his rivals and his Speed Figure as an indication, it is clear that Minefield is as good as any maiden winner during the meet and will provide legitimate competition for Chace City if they both show up in the Bashford Manor. By Silver Deputy, whose progeny are generally precocious with an average winning distance of under seven furlongs, as well as being out of a mare by Tricky Creek, whose offspring are best sprinting, one could surmise that Minefield will have distance limitations. However, the same cannot be said for CIRCULAR QUAY, who broke his maiden at Churchill in mid-June and is another colt nominated to the Bashford Manor by Pletcher. By Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch, whose offspring often improve with time and distance, Circular Quay is out of 1999 Spinaway S. (G1) winner Circle of Light. This makes Circular Quay a half-brother to the unbeaten, and very promising, Circle the World (Fusaichi Pegasus), who was scheduled to run in the Iowa Derby on Friday evening. Ridden to victory by Rafael Bejarano, Circular Quay was slightly slow to start but drew off to win by more than six lengths, earning a BRIS Speed figure of 95 while beating the D. Wayne Lukas-trained FLASHSTORM (Storm Cat), who had finished a respectable fourth to Chace City in his debut. Taking into account the additional fact that Lukas' juveniles generally improve in their second start, Circular Quay's effort was impressive. Much can be expected from this colt with his pedigree and connections. A third Pletcher-trained two-year-old in action at Churchill is BULLARA (Holy Bull), who earned Speed figures of 90 and 93 for runner-up finishes in his first two starts. In his debut, Bullara broke from the 3 post and had a perfect trip chasing fast fractions set by the dueling leaders, Run Alex Run (Officer) and favored PRODICAL EXTREME (Pulpit), who was coming off a fine second to Chace City after suffering a poor trip. Prodical Extreme faded to finish fourth, but surprisingly, first-time starter Run Alex Run ran on to be a convincing winner with a Speed figure of 95. A son of freshman sire Officer, who has already sired three other winners, Run Alex Run is out of a half-sister to the dam of the millionaire and successful sire Slew City Slew, and he's trained by William "Jinks" Fires, whose charges invariably improve after their first start. In his next start on June 25, Bullara had a valid excuse when he was bumped after breaking from the 11 post but still ran well to be beaten a nose, receiving a Speed figure of 93 and providing a boost to the form of Run Alex Run. The winner of this heat, making his second lifetime start, was SHORE (Sea of Secrets), who is a half-brother to Grade 3 winner Bailey's Edge and is trained by Steve Margolis -- another handler whose runners get better after a race or two. However with a sprint-biased pedigree, backed up by a dosage Center of Distribution figure of 1.06, Shore may have distance limitations in the long term. In his debut, Shore was beaten a head when second to L'GRANDE D'ORO (Grand Slam), who had previously been in the money in two maidens races at Keeneland. The Vicki Foley-trained No Lac O Zip, who had previously been third to Minefield, finished just another head back in third. In his next race, No Lack O Zip again finished third, this time behind longshots SPEEDWAY (Forest Wildcat) and LIGHTNING LARRY (Yankee Victor). Speedway had shown little for trainer Bernie Flint in his two earlier starts but turned his form around by leading wire-to-wire in this spot, achieving a Speed figure of 96 and returning a mutuel of nearly $70. Runner-up Lightning Larry is, like Shore, trained by Steve Margolis and turned in a solid performance in his debut. He should be watched closely on his reappearance. The disappointment of this particular race was odds-on favorite CITY SNITCH (Carson City) who raced six wide throughout after breaking slowly before finishing fourth. Trained by Patrick Biancone, City Snitch cost $250k as a yearling and should also be taken note of when he races again. While at times comparisons can be misleading since youngsters are improving at different rates, No Lac O Zip is quite useful as a yardstick when evaluating these maiden races. In his debut behind Minefield, he was followed home by Shipmate, who was also making his first appearance in the 4 1/2-furlong event. One might have expected improvement from the Dallas Stewart-trained Shipmate off this race and he did not disappoint in his next start. Racing over 5 1/2 furlongs on June 11, Shipmate swerved out badly and lost most of his chance after starting form the 12 post. He managed to reach contention at the top of the stretch but continued to run greenly and finished second. It was a good effort but not as impressive as that of easy winner SHERMANESQUE (Fusaichi Pegasus). Shermanesque cost his owners, Willmott Stables, $350,000 as a yearling and is trained by Anthony Reinstedler, who, like many on this circuit, is very patient and only scores with four percent of his first-time starters, according to the TSN Track Stats. To win so impressively in his debut, even though he earned a slightly low Speed Figure of 86, suggests that he may be special, and this assumption is backed up by his pedigree. By the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, he a half-brother to Countess Diana, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and was named champion two-year-old filly in 1997. Two-Year-Olds to watch that might provide some value: Shermanesque
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