|
|
PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING JULY 29, 2006 Some developing angles for first-season sires by Tim Holland With the Saratoga and Del Mar meets underway and two-year-old racing getting into full swing, this may be a good time for handicappers to assess the early performance of some freshman sires. For much of the early part of the season, the leading first-crop sire by earnings was OFFICER (Bertrando). Rated close to the top of many pedigree followers' lists of freshman sires to follow, the stallion has not let his supporters down by siring 10 individual winners so far from his 68 two-year-olds of 2006. Having been an exceptionally precocious juvenile himself, winning his first five starts including the Champagne S. (G1), one could expect Officer's offspring to perform well early in their first year. However, it may have raised a few eyebrows when his first win, through the filly Satulagi in April, was recorded on the turf at Yarmouth in England. However, this becomes more explainable when one considers that not only has Officer's sire Bertrando proven himself as very adaptable and held his own as a turf sire, but Officer's dam is by Septieme Ciel, who is himself a French Group 1 winner out of a classy mare by the turf-oriented Green Dancer. A second grass win for Officer's progeny came in June with Glenwood Ace at Colonial Downs, and Finicius made it three wins on that surface at The Curragh at odds of 9-1 in early July. The most promising of his offspring on the turf may be the Henry Cecil-trained colt, Cavalry Guard, who finished a good second in his debut in a Newmarket maiden last weekend. Sold for $200,000 as a two-year-old in training, Cavalry Guard is the first foal of Leeward City who is by Carson City, the broodmare sire of this year's Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Barbaro. While Officer's runners should be watched on the turf, they should be scrutinized on the main track. Indeed, Les Grands Trois, who cost $220,000 as a yearling and is trained by Bobby Frankel, was very impressive in his debut on July 20 at Belmont when winning by nine lengths, and 10 days later Bill Mott sent out a $230,000 two-year-old in training purchase, the filly Chief Officer (who finished a respectable third in the Schuylerville S. [G3] on Wednesday) to win in just as easy style, albeit in an event for New York-breds. With Officer's offspring getting off to a flying start, one might believe it would be hard for handicappers to find value at the windows. However, it should be noted that Frances G returned $27.80 in her debut win and another first time starter, Run Alex Run, who would finish third in the Bashford Manor S. (G3) in his next start, was dispatched at nearly 9-1 in his maiden victory. To further this point, Anofficerandalady was allowed to start at more than 8-1 when dead-heating for the win in her first outing at Philadelphia Park in early July. Being represented by no less than 127 two-year-olds this year, more than twice as many as most other freshman sires, it is no surprise that JOHANNESBURG (Hennessy) is the leading first-crop sire in both wins and money. Similar to Officer, Johannesburg was a prolific juvenile, winning all of his eight starts and handed the former his first defeat when winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (G1) at Belmont Park in 2001, with Officer finishing a disappointing fifth as the odds-on favorite. Interestingly, both Johannesburg and Officer only made three starts each after the Breeders' Cup, neither reproducing his brilliant two-year-old form. Johannesburg's best runners on the main track to date are Scat Daddy and Teuflesberg, who finished first and second in the Sanford S. (G2) at Saratoga on Thursday. Scat Daddy, a $250,000 Keeneland September Sale yearling, closed determinedly to get up in the final strides and looks to be one of the most talented of Todd Pletcher's juveniles. However, with the stamina of Johannesburg's offspring being questionable and since he is out of a Mr. Prospector mare, one might wonder how Scat Daddy will fare when stretched out over longer distances. The same could be asked about Teuflesberg, who held a clear lead in deep stretch only to be caught late, as he is out of a mare by Devil's Bag and his second dam is by Mr. Prospector. While Scat Daddy may appear to be one of most accomplished two-year-olds in the nation at present, there are some indications that Johannesburg may prove to be a superior turf sire. Indeed, his son Hamoody, trained in England by Peter Chapple-Hyam, showed impressive acceleration when breaking his maiden at Newmarket and is one of the current favorites, admittedly a long way off, for the 2007 Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1). Out of a mare by Gulch, Hamoody cost nearly $400,000 and is one of 10 juveniles by Johannesburg to have recorded a victory on the grass out of 18 that have made at least one start on that surface. Meanwhile, as of July 28, Johannesburg has also had 18 youngsters represent him with at least one race on the main track. These 18 have made 33 starts between them, only three of which resulted in wins. Incidentally and perhaps significantly, Scat Daddy's victory over the five-horse, rather weak, Sanford field is the only victory that has not been achieved on a muddy or sloppy track. In America, Johannesburg's best winner on the grass so far is Marcavelly, who broke his maiden at first asking for Bill Mott at Belmont. Having cost $210,000, Marcavelly is out of a full sister to Santa Anita Oaks (G1) winner Hidden Light, who is the dam of Artie Schiller (El Prado [Ire]), victorious in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile (G1). For horseplayers seeking value, an angle that may well be worth watching for is offspring of Johannesburg that are unsuccessful on the main track and are then switched to the turf. This happened when Johann Star made three unsuccessful starts against tough maiden company at Keeneland and Churchill Downs before being tried on the grass at Colonial Downs. Well supported at the windows, Johann Star led gate-to-wire to post a 4 1/2-length victory, rewarding her followers with an $8 payoff. GIBSON COUNTY (In Excess [Ire]), who is in fourth place in the Leading First-Crop Sire list by earnings, has been somewhat surprising considering he only has 14 two-year-olds to represent him this year. Five of these 14 have run and all have made it to the winner's circle. A beaten favorite in his first two starts when showing speed before stopping, Gibson County went on to win his next three races in his first racing year, all in gate-to-wire fashion, including the California Cup Juvenile. Interestingly, it seems that some of Gibson County's offspring also need a race or two before they can show their best. Indeed, of his five winners, only one won first time out, and that was the useful Genuine Talent who went on to win the Willard L. Proctor Memorial S. in his next start, returning $29.20. Handicappers might be well advised to watch this sire's runners that have disappointed in their first start or two since improvement seems inevitable. Another surprise has been the Canadian champion juvenile of 1999, EXCITING STORY (Diablo), who won his first two lifetime starts and whose biggest victory came in the Metropolitan H. (G1) at odds of more than 56-1. Unfortunately, Exciting Story died in 2004 and will only have 25 foals of 2004 and 14 of 2005 to represent him. Seven of his two-year-olds have started so far of which five have won -- three of these first time out. These include Holly Torque Tango, who finished second in the Landaluce S. at Hollywood Park in her second start and Foolish Girl who returned more than $70 when winning her debut. While, due to the stallion's premature demise, opportunities will be limited, it should pay to take note of all Exciting Story's first time starters. ORIENTATE (Mt. Livermore), champion sprinter and Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner in 2002, was on many peoples' short list to lead the Freshman Sire list, but, at first glance, his results so far seem slightly disappointing. With 96 two-year-olds in his first crop, Orientate has just managed three winners so far. However, it must be said that although he was a fast horse, Orientate himself was not necessarily precocious -- indeed he did not break his maiden until July as a three-year-old and was really at his best toward the end of his four-year-old season. Despite this, two of his first timers have won, including Lost On Champagne who returned more than $30. Several others have been placed, and with improvement anticipated with time and maybe added distance, one can still expect Orientate to be a sire to follow. Second, beaten just a half-length at long odds, to Orientate in the Breeders' Cup Sprint was THUNDERELLO (Montbrook), who has made a solid start to his stallion career with three winners of five races. All three of these were beaten as favorites in their first outings but won in their next attempts, suggesting that Thunderello's offspring, like those of Gibson County and Orientate, can be expected to improve in subsequent races. Horseplayers may also want to give the produce of JUMP START (A.P. Indy) the benefit of a race or two on the evidence of his first few runners. Indeed, from his first five winners, only one scored at first asking. Bold Start showed promise in his first two starts before winning at Churchill returning $23 to his followers and Gulch Jumper was nearly 10-1 when he scored in his second start at Prairie Meadows. Jump Start himself was a promising runner who, having won his first two starts, finished second to Officer in the Champagne at Belmont. On that day, Jump Start was finishing well, suggesting that longer distances may have been an advantage, and he is by A.P. Indy. Unfortunately, Jump Start broke down before this could be proven, but it may ring true for his offspring. ERLTON (Buckaroo) was a $335,000 two-year-old in training purchase who broke his maiden first time out two months later, leading all the way to win by 11 lengths. He earned a BRIS Speed rating of 101 in this victory at Delaware Park which he was unable to better in his next 26 starts. Standing in Louisiana for the lowly fee of $1,500, Erlton produced a relatively small first crop of 23 of which four have already won. Two of these winners, like their sire, won their debuts and both paid handsomely. Indeed, Fine N Dandy returned nearly $70 and Ruston Robber $16, proving that one should pay attention to Erlton's offspring first time out. Another sire whose debutants should be noted is LITTLEEXPECTATIONS (Valid Appeal). A winner of six of his 17 lifetime starts, Littleexpectations was unbeaten in his four starts as a two-year-old. From seven juveniles to represent him, two have become winners. To Vane scored in his initial outing, returning $36.20 at Turf Paradise, and King of the Roxy won in his second try with blinkers added at more than 11-1. Meanwhile a filly, Expect An Echo, made her first appearance in a small stakes race at Lone Star where she was bumped hard at the start but still finished second at odds of 44.90-1. As a racehorse himself, PURE PRIZE (Storm Cat) was at his best going a distance of ground, winning the nine-furlong Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) at Turfway Park, and one might expect the same from his offspring. This may turn out to be the case, but Pure Prize has made a promising start having already sired three winners sprinting. His leading earner so far is Cowgirls Don't Cry, who broke her maiden at Keeneland, returning more than $50, before becoming stakes-placed at Prairie Meadows. Pure Classy and Nice Inheritance are two fillies from the Scott Blasi barn by this stallion who ran well in their debuts at Arlington Park and should be noted next time. STREET CRY (Ire) (Machiavellian) was precocious enough to break his maiden at Del Mar in August, but he, similar to Pure Prize, was better with age and distance. Although he was not tried on the grass himself, it is not surprising, since his dam is by Troy out of a Riverman mare, that three of his first four winners were on the turf. Many of this sire's best runners may have ended up abroad, but it may pay to watch for Street Cry's American-based progeny making their first starts on the grass.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
