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THOROUGHBRED BEAT NOVEMBER 13, 2008 by James Scully Derby Watch -- Any discussion of the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1) picture begins with Sheikh Mohammed. Through Godolphin, Darley and Princess Haya silks, Sheikh Mohammed has the ammunition to win scores of three-year-old stakes races next season. The big question is whether he can win the Derby. He's in the catbird seat right now with MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled's Song), who stamped himself the top early contender with his powerful victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). The probable two-year-old champion overcame the bias at Santa Anita, posting the only front-end victory over the Pro Ride on the two-day Breeders' Cup program, and Midshipman is super impressive from a physical standpoint. He's built to win the Derby, but the colt will have to do so from Dubai. Champagne (G1) and Hopeful (G1) winner VINEYARD HAVEN (Lido Palace [Chi]) is another blue-chip prospect who will make his first start for Godolphin in the desert this winter. It's an abundance of riches for Sheikh Mohammed. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner DONATIVUM (GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) will be pointed toward the Kentucky Derby by John Gosden in England. CORONET OF A BARON (Pure Prize), who finished second by a nose to Midshipman in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) before recording a third in the Juvenile Turf, has the potential to be a major player if he handles dirt. Sanford S. (G2) winner DESERT PARTY (Street Cry [Ire]) missed the Breeders' Cup due to a minor physical setback, but he quickly recovered and owns plenty of promise for 2009. Recently acquired JOSE ADAN (Crypto Star), who crossed the wire first in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) before being disqualified to second, adds further depth to the legion of stakes-proven runners. There's too many possible Derby horses to mention. Darley's REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) was an outstanding debut winner at Saratoga who couldn't handle the synthetic track out west in the Norfolk S. (G1), and I'm eager to see his next start on dirt. Maiden victors MAJESTIC BLUE (Forestry) and GIROLAMO (A.P. Indy) also have the potential to develop into top-class three-year-olds for Sheikh Mohammed. While the top hopefuls have been selected for Dubai, the possibility remains that Sheikh Mohammed will win the Derby in 2009 with a horse wintering in the United States or Europe -- he has too many horses in training to send them all to Dubai. Following the recent success of Big Brown and Barbaro, who both broke long-recognized conventional standards to win at Churchill Downs, it would be foolish to discount the chances of the Dubai-based horses, but they won't enjoy the same advantages of their American counterparts. Midshipman, Vineyard Haven and other Dubai-based three-year-olds won't race again in the United States prior to Derby Day (May 2). One can argue about the importance of a final prep stateside, but that's not the only factor against them. The Dubai horses will be turned over to Saeed bin Suroor, who replaces trainers like Bob Baffert, Bobby Frankel, Kiaran McLaughlin and Eoin Harty. When it comes to preparing a Kentucky Derby contender, bin Suroor isn't in the same class with those horsemen. Sheikh Mohammed is committed to winning the Derby via the Dubai route, but he hasn't had the horses in recent years. That changes in 2009. As a result, we will be paying much more attention to the March 28 U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) and the races leading up to it at Nad al Sheba. Enjoy the Mischief -- Last week, John Mucciolo expressed his disappointment in a column about the early retirement of Red Giant, who was poised to make a serious run at champion turf horse honors in 2009. The colt loves the course at Santa Anita, setting a world record in the Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship S. (G1) in late September, and that's where the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) will be held next year. I'm similarly dismayed by the possible retirement of INTO MISCHIEF (Harlan's Holiday), who looms as a potential beast on the synthetic tracks in Southern California if he continues racing next season. One race following this year's Classic, I watched the post parade for the Damascus S. at Oak Tree. Into Mischief looked nervous on the track, breaking out in a sweat in anticipation of his first start in nearly nine months, and I wouldn't have been surprised if he came up a little flat. The colt lacked racing experience, with one start this year and only four lifetime efforts to his credit prior to the seven-furlong Damascus, and he was facing a solid group of 10 challengers. But the Richard Mandella trainee showed no signs of rust, easily dusting his nearest rival by a two-length margin while registering a career-best 103 BRIS Speed rating, and left little doubt that he's headed to bigger and better things if he remains healthy. He's scheduled to be retired following the December 26 Malibu S. (G1), but it's not set in stone. Into Mischief will stand at owner B. Wayne Hughes' Spendthrift Farm, and Hughes undoubtedly reserves the right to change his mind. I think he would enjoy watching Into Mischief pilfer some of the major prizes on the West Coast in 2009, including possibly the Breeders' Cup Classic. It would significantly increase Into Mischief's stud value, and this is a situation where the risk is clearly worth the reward. Hughes has every right to dream big. He owns a Horse of the Year contender. In his lone start around two turns, the 1 1/16-mile CashCall Futurity (G1), Into Mischief won by 1 1/4 lengths over eventual Travers S. (G1) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) hero Colonel John (Tiznow). We witnessed a horse this year, Raven's Pass, win the 10-furlong Classic without a start past a mile on his resume, and Into Mischief is certainly eligible to excel at a route of ground as he continues to improve. The Malibu is scheduled to be his career finale, but I don't want to believe it. Australian disaster -- After being shut out in the Breeders' Cup, Aidan O'Brien directed a three-horse assault upon the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) that was led by SEPTIMUS (Sadler's Wells), who was bet down to favoritism in the 22-horse field off his rousing 13-length victory in the Irish St Leger (Ire-G1). Unfortunately for O'Brien, Johnny Murtagh was at the helm of the Ballydoyle colorbearer and it turned out to be a disaster. Here is a pre-race analysis of Septimus on racingandsports.com.au: "In danger of being outsprinted, his best chance behind to grind his rivals into the ground." With plenty of speed signed on, Septimus figured to be rating well off the pace in the two-mile marathon, and his two stablemates were sent straight to the front, guaranteeing the set-up for late runners. The firmness of the ground did Septimus no favors, but we don't know how much of an impact it played due to the ride of Murtagh. Murtagh's mindless performance aboard Breeders' Cup Turf favorite, Soldier of Fortune (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), is one for the ages. In a sprint from the outset, Murtagh chased his no-hope stablemate through fractions of :24 1/5, :47 and 1:10 in the 12-furlong affair. The suicidal tactics left the best horse in the field out of gas by the top of the stretch, but Soldier of Fortune still managed to finish fourth on class alone. Murtagh gave Septimus the "Soldier of Fortune ride." He wasn't racing off the heels of the pacesetter like he did in the Breeders' Cup, but he was much too close to his front-running stablemates during the opening stages of Australia's greatest race. He should have been 20 lengths back, biding his time. Instead, he settled close to a ridiculous pace, and Septimus was spent by the final straight, eventually fading to 18th. Murtagh didn't give his mount his best chance. He's one of the better jockeys in Europe, but Murtagh loses all his skills when he travels to the United States and Australia.
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