|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS NOVEMBER 28, 2008 by Dick Powell Just like on Thanksgiving when it pays to pace yourself, this weekend's delicious menu of racing will require a wagering regulator when it comes to our appetite. It's that good and knowing that there will be slim pickings the next five weeks, the temptation is to overdo it this weekend and pay for it later. If you like turf, Hollywood Park has the Turf Festival. If you like older dirt horses, Aqueduct has the Cigar Mile (G1) and Churchill has the Clark H. (G2). If you are looking forward to next year's classics, Aqueduct has the Remsen S. (G2) for juvenile males and the Demoiselle S. (G2) for juvenile fillies while Churchill has the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) for the boys and the Golden Rod S. (G2) for the girls. And, if you are like me and love to bet babies, it's heaven on earth this Saturday with the juvenile stakes at Aqueduct and an entire card devoted to juveniles at Churchill as they finish their season. Thus, in order to make it to Saturday with a healthy bankroll and attitude, I need to pace myself on Thursday and Friday even though the Fall Highweight H. is one of my favorite races at Aqueduct and those turf races at Hollywood Park look real tempting. Churchill has every imaginable baby race that you could ever want. Graded stakes going two turns, maidens going short, maidens going long, allowance races and turf stakes going long comprise the Churchill card that is my cup of tea. So assuming that I do not overdose on tryptothan on Thursday and can stay awake and study on Friday, I should be peaking on Saturday. The 12-race Churchill Saturday card begins with a main track first-level allowance race going a mile for juvenile fillies. Ken McPeek sends out PASSION DU COEUR (Distorted Humor), who broke her maiden second time out at Churchill going seven furlongs in good time from post 10 while earning a BRIS Speed rating of 93. She draws outside and should be able to stalk the pace while clear down the backside. She looks like the one to beat and I'll use her with A. P. ELEGANCE (A.P. Indy), a second-out winner from Steve Asmussen that is certainly bred to go longer, and EMMA DARLING (Hennessy), a turf-to-dirt filly from the red-hot Mike Maker. The second half of the early double on Saturday at Churchill has a dozen juvenile fillies trying to break their maidens going two turns on the main track. McPeek sends out an uncoupled entry of THE BEST DAY EVER (Brahms), fourth in her first two well-bet starts going two turns on synthetic and turf, and SATIN THUNDER (Thunder Gulch) who missed by a length as the beaten favorite last out here at this distance. Satin Thunder will be the horse to beat despite drawing post 11 and I;ll use her Passion du Coeur in early doubles with her and The Best Day Ever. Hard to gauge the others who have run since very few of them took any money in their debuts. ONE HOT TODDY (Congaree) ran an even fourth to A. P. Elegance in her second start and could stretch out. Race three is a first-level allowance race for males going 6 1/2 furlongs that drew nine. I'M IT WAYNE (Lightnin N Thunder) was a monster maiden winner first time out for Wayne Catalano at Hawthorne and has trained well since then. He has the perfect picket fence past performance line from that gate-to-wire win from post one and will get tested here by a field that is loaded with early speed types. McPeek, who has runners in ten of the dozen races, sends out MYROSLAW (Alke) who broke his maiden two starts back at Keeneland going seven furlongs then ran well here against this class level last time out. TURFISTE (Military) is a speedball from Bob Holthus that was used hard last out going seven but has trained well for this. SPECIAL HEART (Lion Heart) looks to be the only one that can pass horses and will get our nod. Next is a seven-furlong maiden race for males on the main track Eight of the dozen starters are making their career debuts and considering that the ones that have run have not distinguished themselves we’ll look for a first time starter. Steve Asmussen sends out JUSTIN (Speightstown) that cost $700,000 as a yearling and is training well. We'll bet him to win and let the chips fall where they may. Race five is the Grand Canyon H. for juvenile males going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. SMART SHOT (Smart Strike) rallied from far back to break his maiden first time out on the turf for Michael Trombetta at Laurel. He draws well and should be able to run these down. PRESENTS FOR BERTI (Congaree) broke his maiden here last out going a mile on this course and should be tough again for Helen Pitts. We're back on the main track going 6 1/2 furlongs for juvenile fillies in race six which attracted a field of 11. GLACKEN QUEEN (Smoke Glacken) has to overcome post 1, but her three prior races have all been good and she won here last out going six in fast time. The fact that she breaks so well should help Albarado avoid a traffic jam out of the gate. PRETTY PROLIFIC (Lion Heart) has run well against graded stakes company going longer and SELECTIVE (Tapit) made a strong middle move here last out going a mile. I'll key Glacken Queen in an exacta box over Pretty Prolific and Selective. Race seven in a seven-furlong maiden race for females on the main track. AFTER THOUGHT (Fusaichi Pegasus) is out of a dam that won the Churchill Downs Distaff H. (G2) here going seven furlongs on the main track and is a full sister to Grade 3 stakes winner RAVEL (Fusaichi Pegasus). She comes in here off a series of easy breezes for Rusty Arnold and looks ready to go. HEART ASHLEY (Lion Heart) was a good second in her career debut from post nine for Zayat/Asmussen. We'll box these two in the exacta. Race eight is a one-mile first-level allowance event for males on the main track. PHOSPHORESCENT (Rock Slide) broke his maiden first time out here in July going six furlongs then was a distant fourth on a sloppy track at Saratoga in a Grade 2 stakes. After a respite, he was a good second here going seven furlongs in fast time and should handle these if he can run back to that effort. The Golden Rod S. (G2) is race nine; a 1 1/16 mile main track event for juvenile fillies. SARA LOUISE (Malibu Moon) was well intended for her career debut at Saratoga but she got off to a poor start and had to rally from far back to get fourth. She broke her maiden next time out at Belmont then came back here with a sharp win in the Pocahontas S. (G3) which she dominated in fast time and earned a terrific 101 BRIS Speed rating. Today will be her two-turn debut but nothing from her prior three starts would indicate that she can't do it. DREAM EMPRESS (Bernstein) won the Alcibiades S. (G1) two starts back on synthetic at Keeneland then was a good second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) next out. After beginning her career on turf, she makes her dirt debut here for McPeek. WAR ECHO (Tapit) held on gamely in the Frizette S. (G1) when she pressed a fast pace going a mile and could be dangerous here if she gets loose on an easy lead. With only seven runners in the Golden Rod, I'll play straight exactas with Sara Louise over Dream Empress and War Echo. Race 10 has juvenile fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf in the Caressing H. STRIKING DANCER (Smart Strike) exploded to a 5 3/4-length win in her two-turn turf debut last out here and should be tough again for Ken McPeek. I'm going to single her in doubles into the next race. The Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) is race 11 for juvenile males going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Ride [Arg]) has won both of his dirt starts including a sharp win here in the Iroquois S. (G3). He can run near the pace or rally from behind so Julien Leparoux has many options in riding him from post 8. I'll play a daily double from race ten with Striking Dancer and Capt. Candyman Can and then key Capt. Candyman Can over GIANT OAK (Giant's Causeway) and JAZZANDTHEMAGICIAN (Birdstone) in exactas. Finally, race 12 sends us on our way with a 1 1/8 maiden race on the main track for juvenile males. LOHAD (Menifee) rallied from far back from post 12 going two turns on the turf to miss by two lengths and gets in light with apprentice rider Brandon Meier. TRIBAL BEAD (Indian Charlie) was a good third here going two turns and is another that should handle the distance for Bill Mott who also sends out BARYSHNIKOV (Empire Maker) who was a good second in his career debut going two turns on the turf. I'm going to stand alone with Lohad in the finale with a strong win bet. McPeek wins with 13 percent of his first time starters but an amazing 26 percent second time out. He's strong with turf to dirt and second time going long so I expect Lohad to run at least as well as he did first time out and beats these easily if he shows any improvement.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
