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TURF DIARY NOVEMBER 4, 2009 For only the third time in Breeders' Cup history, the reigning champions in both the Turf (G1) and Mile (G1) are back to defend their crowns in the same year. The results of those previous twin defenses may be instructive. In the 1993 championships at Santa Anita, Lure won his second straight Mile, but Fraise failed to repeat in the Turf and wound up fourth. A dozen years later, in 2005 at Belmont, both defending champions were dethroned in their respective events -- Singletary finished eighth in the Mile and Better Talk Now checked in seventh in the Turf. As tiny as that sample is, it points to a larger historical pattern. It's not easy to win two Breeders' Cup titles, but the Mile has yielded more two-time winners than the Turf. While the electric Miesque (1987-88), the speedy Lure (1992-93) and the stout-hearted Da Hoss (1996, 1998) all won two runnings of the Mile, only the top-class High Chaparral (Ire) managed to capture two editions of the Turf (2002-03). And famously, he had to share that second victory in a dead-heat with Johar, who got up to join him at the wire. These historical clues reinforce my instincts about our current defending champions. Mile superstar GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa) belongs on that elite list of dual Breeders' Cup winners, but does Turf hero CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani)? I'm not guilty of dithering over that particular question. I made a crystal-clear decision some time ago about my top selections in the Turf, which features a stellar cast of Europeans and a less persuasive group of Americans. When it came to ranking the placed horses in the Mile, however, I must admit that I've toyed with the order almost as much as the House and Senate leadership have tinkered with the various health care bills. So, with the usual disclaimer that I make no pretense of being a steely-eyed handicapper, but rather an observer with transparent rooting interests, here are my top three, and intriguing longshot, for the Turf and Mile. TURF
Rerouted to France, Spanish Moon captured both of his subsequent starts, the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Fr-G1) in June and the Prix Foy (Fr-G2) in September. That entitled him to be a serious player in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), but the Juddmonte brain trust decided to swerve Sea the Stars and keep Spanish Moon fresh for a late autumn campaign. Interestingly, one previous Turf winner, In the Wings (GB) (1990), had also landed the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and Prix Foy on the way to the Breeders' Cup. He ran in the Arc, finishing fourth, before heading to the Turf. Spanish Moon's form looks rock solid and stacks up tantalizingly well against Conduit. He has defeated three-time Arc runner-up Youmzain (Sinndar) twice this season, and last time out, he beat Vision d'Etat (Chichicastenango), who had in turn handled subsequent King George runner-up Tartan Bearer (Spectrum). Moreover, Spanish Moon has tactical speed, which should help him to get first run on Conduit at Santa Anita, and he picks up a gifted rider in Kieren Fallon. A victory by Spanish Moon would be satisfying on several levels -- as the belated fulfillment of his potential; as a tribute to his recently-deceased sire, El Prado (Ire); and as a long overdue first Turf trophy for Juddmonte. 2nd -- At her best, the four-year-old filly DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) could spoil the prospects for a Stoute exacta. Ironically, her sire, Singspiel (Ire), was the bottom half of the Stoute exacta in the 1996 Turf. Singspiel was the even-money favorite, but he was upstaged by his 13-1 stablemate, Pilsudski (Ire). (Like Spanish Moon upstaging Conduit, perhaps?) The John Gosden trainee may not have the cache of the first distaff winner of the Turf, Pebbles (GB) (1985), but she has much more to recommend her than Miss Alleged, who upset the 1991 Turf. Out of the first-rate Darara (Ire) (Top Ville), from a terrific Aga Khan family, Dar Re Mi is tough as nails and excels at the 1 1/2-mile distance. Last year, Dar Re Mi had the misfortune of playing second fiddle to the peerless Zarkava in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1), which Zarkava won in stakes-record time. Prior to that, Dar Re Mi had finished runner-up to Lush Lashes when she smashed the course record in the Yorkshire Oaks (Eng-G1) (held at Newmarket in 2008). This season, Dar Re Mi has exposed the pretensions of the two most hyped sophomore fillies in Europe, while spotting them significant weight: she upended Oaks (Eng-G1) heroine Sariska (Pivotal) in the Yorkshire Oaks (back at York this time) and beat French Oaks (Fr-G1) star Stacelita (Monsun) fair and square in the Vermeille, only to be disqualified in a travesty of justice. Dar Re Mi is coming off a better-than-appears fifth in the Arc. As noted in my last International Diary, she was up close in the main body of the field throughout, threw down a bold challenge in the stretch before Sea the Stars bolted clear, and was passed late by fourth-placer Conduit. Dar Re Mi figures to stay on more strongly at Santa Anita than she did at Longchamp, and if she doesn't take top honors herself, she is likely to make the winner work for the trophy. With the late-breaking news that Frankie Dettori will ride, Dar Re Mi looks all the more appealing. 3rd -- I may well be selling CONDUIT short here, and it won't be a surprise if he overturns my finely-reasoned speculation. Although he's clearly better than the past defending Turf champions who have flopped in their ensuing runs, I'm not quite convinced that he measures up to High Chaparral. Let's compare their resumes: High Chaparral won the Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1) at two; swept the Derby and Irish Derby (Ire-G1) the following season; at four, he added the 1 1/4-mile Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) to his haul; and he was twice third in the Arc. In contrast, Conduit was modest at two; began his sophomore season in handicap company, progressing to take the St Leger (Eng-G1) and Turf; was blown away by Sea the Stars and Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) in the 1 1/4-mile Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) this summer; and relished the step back up to 1 1/2 miles to garner the King George in solid if unspectacular fashion. Furthermore, I think that Conduit faces tougher European opposition this time. Last year's runner-up, Eagle Mountain (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]), was making his second start off a year-long layoff at a distance that may have been a shade too far, and the fourth-place finisher was the one-paced Soldier of Fortune (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), who just didn't strike me as a horse who'd be suited by Santa Anita. Neither can hold a candle, in my view, to Spanish Moon or Dar Re Mi. Having stated the case for the prosecution, I am duty-bound to point out that Conduit stands to move forward off his closing fourth in the Arc. He had not raced since the King George, and only the rarest of horses is capable of winning the Arc off that kind of layoff. The Arc may prove to be the ideal prep for the Turf, and indeed, no fewer than six Turf winners came out of the Arc (seven if you include Miss Alleged, who ran in the Arc two starts before her Turf score). There is one way that Conduit does resemble High Chaparral: both were arguably better suited to racing left-handed than right-handed. All four of Conduit's 2009 starts have come on right-handed courses, so he could improve considerably going left-handed at Santa Anita. Just two further thoughts, whose relevance is questionable but nevertheless worth stating. First, Conduit was mildly colicky a few weeks ago, when rumors were rife that he may miss the Turf, but Stoute quashed that gossip in short order, and Conduit has reportedly been training sharply ever since. That's a non-issue at this point. The second matter is slightly more curious, not in and of itself, but because of the timing: Ballymacoll Stud has just sold Conduit to a Japanese stud farm. The sale makes perfect commercial sense, but why was it finalized prior to the Turf? Is his market value at its height right now, when he's the raging favorite for the Turf, but may not be if he's beaten? Longshot -- TELLING (A.P. Indy) came from out of the blue this campaign, but he is a well-bred individual who began life with Darley, and is putting it all together at the right time for trainer Steve Hobby. I think that he has not gotten the credit he deserves for a convincing victory in the Sword Dancer Invitational (G1) at Saratoga, where he raced within striking distance of a ferocious pace but powered home strongly. His losses on either side of that 33-1 upset were both sneakily good. Telling finished fast for fifth in the 1 1/4-mile Arlington H. (G3), beaten all of 1 1/2 lengths by Just as Well (A.P. Indy), who went on to chase Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat) in the Arlington Million (G1) and then took the Northern Dancer Turf S. (Can-G1) via disqualification. As discussed in my previous Turf Diary, Telling's effort in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) was also encouraging. Unlike the lovable PRESIOUS PASSION (Royal Anthem), who will attract some support but whom I just can't envision wiring a field of this stature, Telling should be completely overlooked in the wagering and will be doing his best work in the final quarter-mile. MILE
This year, with two glaring exceptions, Goldikova has been even more dominating. Those two reverses should be disregarded: her 2009 debut is a total throw-out since the Head yard was battling a bug at the time, and her narrow loss in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1) last time out was better than it looks on paper. Goldikova was dropping to about seven furlongs for the first time, broke from a far outside post, forced a very fast pace while wide, sauntered to the front on the bridle, got tired and was run down late. Unlike Goldikova, who looked like the winner in the stretch, the early leader gave way badly and wound up a long way back, underscoring what a breakneck tempo it was. The Foret would be significant if Goldikova were trying one of the Breeders' Cup Sprint races, but it shouldn't portend much for her back over a course and distance that she relishes. Recall that the great Miesque herself entered both of her Breeders' Cups off losses. Over the summer, Goldikova looked sublime, as described at length in a few International Diaries. After a cozy score in the Falmouth S. (Eng-G1), she successfully defended her Rothschild title in grand style, skipping clear and easing down late. Two weeks later, Goldikova throttled males in the Prix Jacques le Marois (Fr-G1) by a dazzling six lengths, shattering the stakes record in one of the continent's most prestigious mile events. Since the bay appears to thrive on racing, I suspect that Head prepped her in the Foret because it was closer to the date of the Breeders' Cup, even though the distance wasn't ideal. If so, then Goldikova should be sitting on a tremendous performance. 2nd -- DELEGATOR (GB) (Dansili [GB]) has claims to be considered best-of-the-rest, but only if he duplicates the early-season form he showed for Brian Meehan, before he was purchased by Godolphin. An impressive winner of the Craven S. (Eng-G3) in his sophomore bow, he battled with Sea the Stars in the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), but was outstayed by that titan in the closing stages and finished a gallant second. Delegator turned in another terrific runner-up effort in the St. James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot, where he briefly threatened to upset Mastercraftsman (Ire) (Danehill Dancer), only to be outstayed again in the final yards. A clear pattern emerges: Delegator is capable of delivering a potent burst of speed, but he can't sustain it for long. Ironically, the fact that he had traffic trouble in the Celebration Mile (Eng-G2) two back may have worked to his benefit: when he finally broke free, he roared clear and won well from Mile rival ZACINTO (GB) (Dansili [GB]). (Delegator may not keep that victory he scored in his Godolphin debut, for he subsequently tested positive for a banned substance.) Delegator disappointed in his second start for Godolphin, folding to a tame third behind Rip Van Winkle and a much-improved Zacinto in the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot. Based on that effort, Zacinto appears to have outstripped Delegator, but for one key fact: Santa Anita's mile puts a premium on speed, which is Delegator's forte, unlike Ascot's stiffer test that so plainly suited Zacinto. Delegator will finally get an easy mile to play to his strengths, instead of the courses that have been pushing him to the limit. If he's still at his best at this late stage of the season, Delegator figures to sprint around the turn and charge home late. 3rd -- I found it past my powers to try to separate the American-based contingent, which boasts several smart late runners who are well qualified to get up for a minor award. So I'm going in a different direction and tabbing the game, genuine pace factor COWBOY CAL (Giant's Causeway) to hold off the spirited closers for third. I've always had a soft spot for the old Stonerside Stable horses, and I was very high on Cowboy Cal in the wake of his devastating triumph in the Laurel Futurity in 2007. His three-year-old season was interrupted in the wake of a poor performance in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but he returned as resilient as ever last fall. It's notable that when Robert and Janice McNair sold their bloodstock and farm to Sheikh Mohammed, they retained Cowboy Cal for themselves, and he has vindicated that decision. Things haven't always panned out for him, and he has been foiled by circumstances at times, but when he gets the right set-up, he is a tenacious competitor. I have an inkling that the Mile is going to unfold well for him. Cowboy Cal is better when he plays a stalking role, and he should have a target here. Also, unlike a couple of his archrivals, COURT VISION (Gulch) and JUSTENUFFHUMOR (Distorted Humor), who would arguably prefer a trifle longer distance, the flat mile is ideal for Cowboy Cal. He's a perfect three-for-three at this trip on the turf, and he exits a victory in the Oak Tree Mile (G2) over the course, an historically productive prep for the Mile. Remember that last year, Stonerside-breds Raven's Pass and Midshipman (Unbridled's Song) covered themselves in Breeders' Cup glory for their new connections. How appropriate, then, would it be for the McNairs to watch Cowboy Cal do well for them here. Longshot -- This choice is either a lightning-bolt of insight, or a lunatic delusion, but I can't ignore Godolphin's ostensible second-stringer GLADIATORUS (Silic [Fr]). As anyone who saw his jaw-dropping romp in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) can attest, he's capable of running a world-class field off its collective feet. Subsequently switched from Mubarak bin Shafya to Godolphin, he was bitterly disappointing in his first three starts in the royal blue silks. I'm not willing to condemn him for those efforts, or write him off as an inflated Dubai wonder who was put in his place in Europe. In the middle of the summer he had foot trouble that ruled him out of a projected tilt at the Arlington Million, and it's possible that he was only just rounding into form when slaughtering a weak field in the Premio Vittorio di Capua (Ity-G1) in Milan last time out. Gladiatorus may be in his element on a turning circuit like Santa Anita, and I wouldn't put it past him to go straight to the front and hold on for a long way. A son of 1999 Mile hero Silic (Fr), Gladiatorus is inbred 3 x 3 to the influential Blushing Groom (Fr), and his second dam is champion and Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) queen Al Bahathri.
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