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SPRINT DIARY NOVEMBER 4, 2009 by Vance Hanson To regular readers of this column hoping to meet or exceed last year's Return on Investment (ROI) by backing my top selections in the three Breeders' Cup sprint races: it isn't going to happen. I'm not far off the mark when saying lucrative selections on the scale of DESERT CODE (E Dubai) come with Halley's Comet frequency when uttered from my mouth or typed on my keyboard, so getting back $25 for every $2 wagered this time is unrealistic given who I'm supporting. I really don't see any major surprises in either the Sprint (G1) or Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), but I have included a longshot or two among my top selections in the Turf Sprint, which I consider to be one of the best betting races over the two-day fixture. SPRINT
2nd -- ZENSATIONAL (Unbridled's Song) will be the favorite off comfortable wins in the Pat O'Brien S. (G1), Bing Crosby S. (G1) and Triple Bend H. (G1), an unprecedented sequence of wins for a three-year-old. While I'm not so convinced of his vulnerability as I was of Lost in the Fog's in 2005, the two do share the commonality of having earned a lofty reputation while facing little in the way of serious competition. His trio of wins were Grade 1s in name only as the sprint division in Southern California this year was as mediocre as I can ever recall. The gray colt might prove to be everything his fans have said he is, but there were certainly underlying reasons why a three-year-old unexpectedly dominated a division with such a rich history of producing quality dash specialists. The bottom line is that the Sprint will be his first serious test all year, and at a price hovering around even-money I'm taking a stand against him. 3rd -- CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Ride [Arg]) is now the sentimental choice after breeder and co-owner Dr. Joseph Rauch unexpectedly died last weekend. I'm still not quite sure why I put him here instead of the seemingly more logical GAYEGO (Gilded Time), a course and distance specialist. Perhaps it was to be intellectually consistent since he finished within a half-length of my top selection in the Phoenix. Or maybe it's because I'm not as enthralled with Gayego's Ancient Title S. (G1) now as before, which could be an entirely wrong-headed feeling. Capt. Candyman Can is certainly competing on a surface that is not his preferred one and over a distance about a furlong shorter than optimum, but I can't completely overlook his progressive form over the past several months and I think he can clear some of the more obvious hurdles to land a minor share. Longshot -- COST OF FREEDOM (Cee's Tizzy) could not have been entering this race any better...a year ago. A failure to pass a veterinary inspection forced his withdrawal from the 2008 Sprint following a minor upset win in the Ancient Title, and while he hasn't shown his very best form since then, do note he was returning from an 11-month layoff when fourth in the Pirate's Bounty S. on September 9 and was far sharper when occupying the same position behind Gayego in this year's renewal of the Ancient Title. He actually made the lead briefly in the stretch in the latter and might be ready to peak in his third race back. FILLY & MARE SPRINT 1st -- VENTURA (Chester House) was nowhere to be found on my list of selections last year. Lesson learned. Though her campaign has been much shorter this season, she really hasn't done anything to dispel the notion that seven furlongs on Pro-Ride is her game and the fillies and mares she'll be facing will just be playing it. No, she hasn't completely shaken off her habit of missing by narrow margins on occasion, but from all appearances she couldn't be entering this race any better physically or form-wise. 2nd -- SARA LOUISE (Malibu Moon), one could argue, is Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) competing in the Breeders' Cup by proxy. Okay, I might be stretching that a little as the likely Horse of the Year certainly wouldn't have been running in this race if she had come to California. But the Godolphin colorbearer is the last one to have beaten the great filly, in the 2008 Pocahontas S. (G3), and has validated that juvenile form with two outstanding efforts this season in the Victory Ride S. (G3) and in the Gallant Bloom H. (G2), where she bowed by a head to dual champion Indian Blessing (Indian Charlie). She has reportedly taken to the Pro-Ride well in her local works, and certainly has the class and form to run a good one behind Ventura. Given how imposing that one looks on paper, however, she's more than likely a year away from her destined coronation in the next renewal over dirt at Churchill Downs. 3rd -- INFORMED DECISION (Monarchos) brings an undefeated record over synthetic surfaces, a 6-5-0-1 mark at the distance and a victory over Ventura in the Madison S. (G1) to the table -- a solid one-two-three punch. She might indeed be the best hope among those not named Ventura, and if you're trying to beat the chalk why not go with the one who has actually done it? However, my gut has been telling me for some time that the gray, who has no Pro-Ride experience, might not like it as much as Polytrack or Tapeta or at least not as much as Ventura. Not all synthetic surfaces are the same, and Ventura would be the first to tell you, if she could, that she kind of prefers the Pro-Ride to Polytrack. I'm guessing Informed Decision is in the opposing camp. Longshot -- EVITA ARGENTINA (Candy Ride [Arg]) is not nearly as bad as she looked in the September 4 Rancho Bernardo H. (G3) at Del Mar. This is the same filly, after all, that beat colts over this course and distance in the San Vicente S. (G2) and whipped her elders in the A Gleam H. (G2) at Hollywood, further evidence of the paucity of quality older sprinters in California this season. On the flip side, her Speed ratings are consistently lower than those earned by the major contenders. Too many things need to break her way in order for her to garner more than a minor share. TURF SPRINT 1st -- DIAMONDRELLA (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) is in the wrong race from a sporting perspective. I would love to have seen how her explosive late kick would have measured up against those of the European challengers in the Mile (G1), in particular Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa). Alas, we can only speculate. This race is certainly the second best option for her as she took a relatively fierce disliking to synthetic two back in the Presque Isle Downs Masters S. (G3). Indeed, if not for that inappropriate placement in the hopes of making her a Filly & Mare Sprint candidate, she'd be riding into town on a seven-race win streak. There are some hurdles here -- facing males for the first time and inexperience over the tricky downhill course that involves crossing the Pro-Ride -- but with the right trip we see this mare in contention late with one of her patented scorching rallies. I've preached for two years that the edge in this race will go to those with positive experience over the course and distance, which proved to be the case last year, but this amazon appears to have the talent to lessen that necessity. I'm prepared to either look like a genius or a fool for outthinking myself. 2nd -- NOBLE COURT (Doneraile Court) is a tip of the hat to my aforementioned dogma of favoring a horse for the course. If not for the presence of Zensational, this one would have made a larger impact on the main track division in California this year and would likely be running in the Sprint. This is by far the more appropriate spot as his two prior turf sprint attempts would suggest. The first was a neck loss in the six-furlong Captain Squire H. across town at Hollywood in 2007, the other a victory in the course-and-distance Joe Hernandez S. in March, a race won last year by my old friend Desert Code, who seems too off-form to back with confidence this time. Not so this five-year-old, who shows only one unplaced finish in his career (he subsequently missed more than 13 months of action following a fifth in a division of the 2008 El Cajon S). His BRIS Late Pace ratings are superb (ranging from 106 to 118 in his last six starts), so if he gets a clear run in this congested field look out. I'll be backing both of my top two selections in the win pool. 3rd -- CANNONBALL (Catienus) nearly scored a historic win for the Americans at Royal Ascot in June when falling short by a neck in the Golden Jubilee S. (Eng-G1) after a less-than-heady ride by Olivier Peslier. The New York-bred gelding finally got off the duck this season in his next outing in the Commentator S. at Saratoga, and before one downgrades that win against mere state-breds note that among the vanquished were SILVER TIMBER (Prime Timber), who had taken the Jaipur S. (G3) and subsequently landed the Woodford S. (G3). Cannonball narrowly missed in a pair of graded events in Kentucky last spring, but probably found those affairs and the King's Stand S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot too short. This distance should hit him between the eyes, so the only real concern here is his ability to handle this unique course. Longshot -- GOTTA HAVE HER (Royal Academy) was a late addition to the list of probables following her score in the Senator Ken Maddy H. (G3) on October 17, one of four wins she has in as many attempts over this course and distance. Trainer Jenine Sahadi, who won back-to-back Breeders' Cup Sprints with Lit de Justice and Elmhurst in 1996-97, has no qualms about bringing her back on short rest nor about putting her in with males, and she looks most interesting as a kicker for trifecta and superfecta wagers.
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