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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS NOVEMBER 13, 2009 by Dick Powell It was not a good Breeders' Cup for me until about 3:57 p.m. Pacific time when it was worth all the money I had lost on Saturday. My handicapping angle that Aidan O'Brien was going to have a great Breeders' Cup for a change looked good on Friday when MAN OF IRON (Giant's Causeway) upset the Marathon by a nose for Team Ballydoyle. But that was the only O'Brien trainee that raced with Lasix and whether it was a coincidence or not, the others that did not race with the diuretic ran terribly. So instead of having 24-1 longshot Ready's Echo (More than Ready) on top in the Dirt Mile (G1), I had him second with O'Brien trainee Mastercraftsman (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) on top. In the Juvenile (G1), I went with O'Brien's Alfred Nobel (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) and had the 30-1 winner only third. On Friday, I went with 3-2 favorite Lillie Langtry (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) on top and 10-1 winner TAPITSFLY (Tapit) picked for second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. And in the biggest screw-up of the weekend, I went with Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) instead of ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) in the Classic (G1). It's not like any of this should have been a surprise since O'Brien's Breeders' Cup record has been poor. Somehow, I thought he would make the necessary changes and show up loaded for bear. To add salt to the wound, his horses were all overbet so they represented little pari-mutuel value. One reason that O'Brien has had so much trouble when racing in the United States is how poorly his horses get away from the gate. Here is how the O'Brien horses broke from the gate during the Breeders' Cup: Man of Iron: 9th of 10 In American racing, that's too much ground to concede whether it's the main track or the turf. But, years ago, Hall of Fame trainer John Nerud was quoted as saying, "A bad day at the track is better than a good day anywhere else." It couldn't have been any truer than last Saturday at Santa Anita. The Breeders' Cup Classic has been run 26 times (not 25 like I wrote last week), and Saturday's running ranks up there with the first one with Wild Again desperately holding on and surviving a long stewards' inquiry; the 1988 edition with Alysheba rallying to win in near darkness, the 1989 edition with Sunday Silence holding off Easy Goer; and the 2001 edition with Tiznow "wins it for America." I'm not saying Saturday's edition was better, but that it ranks right with these great championship races. My personal favorite has always been the 1989 edition because of all the tension and drama attached to the race. Much of handicapping is extrapolation. A horse is successful in one circumstance and now you have to project how it will do in a different one. Zenyatta was undefeated in 13 starts and most of those races were at 1 1/16 miles. She had never run 1 1/4 miles, so even at the age of five she was entering unknown territory. A big handicapping mistake that we all make is that we extrapolate a horse that makes up ground in a shorter race and conclude that they will be able to handle longer distances. Another big handicapping mistake that we all make is that we conclude that a horse that tires at a shorter distance will tire more at a longer distance without ever taking pace scenarios into consideration. In Zenyatta's case, I've been waiting for her to stretch out in distance based not only on running style but on a truly stout pedigree. Her sire, Street Cry (Ire), has become a major source of stamina in pedigrees both here and abroad, as his son SHOCKING won the two-mile Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) earlier in the week in Australia. As her trainer John Shirreffs has said, the fact that she was undefeated in 13 starts while coming from behind is truly remarkable. A lot can go wrong when you do not dictate your own circumstances, but she was always good enough to overcome anything thrown in her path. Finally, last Saturday, we got to see her run at what should be her optimum distance. In Zenyatta's case, it didn't matter who she was facing. What was more important was that she was facing them at 10 furlongs. That extra furlong between nine and 10 seems to separate many pretenders from contenders. On Saturday, it confirmed greatness. After Quality Road (Elusive Quality) had to be scratched at the gate due to a physical and mental meltdown, Mike Smith had Zenyatta away last from the gate. She ran very awkwardly through the stretch the first time as he was trying to get her to race on her correct lead. We have written in this space many times how Zenyatta does not warm up before the race, and that the first half-mile is used for that purpose, so we had little cause for concern. Down the backstretch with 11 male rivals ahead of her, Smith was able to close the gap and with a half-mile to go she was in contact with the field. He kept her to the inside as much as possible to save ground and she began to find her best stride around the far turn. Despite her enormous size and stride, Zenyatta is amazingly athletic. She runs with her weight underneath her with great balance. In the past, Smith rode like you are supposed to ride a 1-5 favorite -- go around horses using a clear path. Now, he had to ride her like any other racehorse and he steered her inside horses nearing the top of the stretch. Zenyatta's response was without hesitation and she shot through the hole like a bullet. With a wall of about five horses in front of her, Smith switched her to the outside but had to wait a few strides for Twice Over (GB) (Observatory) to clear. With about a furlong to go, Smith had her in the position that he wanted and just like in the Clement Hirsch S. (G1) at Del Mar, when she used her incredible stride to get to the wire, her male rivals never had a chance. She flew the last furlong like Forego in the Marlboro Cup (G1) and won going away. To show you how strong she was going 10 furlongs, she galloped out even farther in front after the wire in a brazen display of dominance. Forget the fact that she was a female facing males, Zenyatta's Classic win was not to be denied. If she was ever going to beat, it was at the shorter distances. If she ran 10 furlongs 14 times, she would be 14-for-14 as well. But, it would have been a lot easier. I'll leave all the comparisons between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) to others. But there is one issue I have to comment on. I was at Saratoga sitting in section C for the Woodward S. (G1) and Rachel's exciting win. It was the loudest crowd I ever heard at Saratoga. I was at Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup on Saturday sitting in section K. There was no comparison between the crowd noise and how long the celebratory mood after the race was sustained. Saturday was better. And this is from someone that lost a lot of money. I'd do it again in a heartbeat. It was a great day at the track.
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