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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS NOVEMBER 28, 2009 by Dick Powell Everything I want as a bettor will be available to me this Thanksgiving weekend as racing conducts its last hurrah for the 2009 season. Stakes races all over the country, turf, dirt and synthetic, and a card at Churchill with all juveniles highlight the racing action. I love juvenile racing since it plays to my strengths. I use pedigree information in my handicapping equation as well as jockey/trainer data. With few starts to handicap, you better know what their pedigrees are and how well the humans that are guiding their careers perform in these situations. For those of you that complain that the big bettors have a decided advantage in the pari-mutuel pools, Saturday's all-juvenile card at Churchill should put you on equal footing. Big bettors that use computers for their handicapping will be avoiding the many races with first time starters since there will not be enough data to run through their models so it’s an opportunity for you to step forward and show what you got. Between Friday, Saturday and Sunday, you should be able to find wagering opportunities from 12:30 p.m. (EST) through about 9 p.m.. From Aqueduct through the last at Hollywood Park with Churchill and Fair Grounds in between, there should be many playable races for those with the discipline to pick their spots. With all the information that you have available in your BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, you should be able to find many playable horses at juicy odds. With first time starters, I like to see a trainer that wins at least 10 percent in this spot and a sire that does as well. If a horse has both, it's worth a look. If it only has one, I would prefer it be on the pedigree side. Learn to use the trainer and pedigree data found in these must-have past performances. With second time starters, what I like to see is a horse that showed some interest in running first time out -- either early or late. I then want to see how the trainer does second time out. Many trainers like to school their horses in their debut so you can excuse a poor effort first time out. If they show a large improvement second time out you can expect the horse to run better by many lengths. For instance, Rusty Arnold wins with 12 percent of his first time starters. But with a race under their belt, Arnold's second time starters win 17 percent and show a flat-bet profit. I'm not saying pass up his firsters since 12 percent is a good figure, but his second time starters are better -- SAINTLY WAYS (Saint Liam) in Churchill's 1ST race on Saturday is one to watch even though he's moving up a bit in class. Watching the board is always important with lightly-raced horses, but don't be a slave to it. If you like a horse and it keeps going up in odds stick with it. This past summer, I gave out HOUSE OF GRACE (Limehouse), a first time starter from Ken McPeek on TV in the Saratoga area. She was 12-1 on the morning line, took no money and eventually went off at 23-1 odds. She romped. There was no buzz about her at all but she won like a champ. Watch the board to see if a horse is taking more money than you would think but don't let the board sway your ultimate decision. If you are a TwinSpires.com member you have had the luxury of watching live action from Churchill and Fair Grounds in high-definition. If you are not, what is holding you back? When trying to decide whether ZENYATTA or RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) should be Horse of the Year, consider these three facts that seem to have been lost in all the emotion: First, Rachel Alexandra won an allowance at Keeneland on Polytrack when she was trained by Hal Wiggins. Her jockey described the way she handled the synthetic surface as "awesome." It was her current owner that decided that she would not run on "plastic" for reasons that had nothing to do with Rachel's ability to run on it. Second, trainer John Shirreffs shipped Zenyatta to Churchill Downs the first week in May to run in the Louisville Distaff Handicap (G2) this year on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) undercard. A very wet main track caused him to scratch his undefeated mare, but she did leave the comforts of home in Southern California. Third, the reason that the Zenyatta camp was so reluctant to come to New York to face Rachel was Giacomo's experience in the detention barn before the 2005 Belmont S. (G1). Shirreffs has said that he would not ship Zenyatta, or any other horse, to New York because of it. Three-year-old horses invariably have seasons that are front-loaded. Most of the big races are in the first six months of the year and they are obviously restricted by age. Older horses have the end-of-the-season races like the Breeders' Cup as their goal and their year is usually back-loaded. Yes, it's unfair to judge sophomores at the end of the season after they have been knocking heads in the first half of the year and might be worn out. But it is equally unfair to judge older horses whose seasons are just getting underway and compare them to their younger counterparts. The point of having weight-for-age events at the end of the season is to get them on the track against each other and let the finish line be the judge.
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