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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS DECEMBER 24, 2009 by Dick Powell Santa Anita finishes up its opening day card on Saturday with three fantastic races -- two Grade 1 stakes and a maiden special weight that should make a great Pick 3 to play. The La Brea S. (G1) will be run as race 8 for three-year-old fillies going seven furlongs on the main track. At the recently-concluded Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita, speed did very well going seven furlongs on the Pro-Ride, but last year's numbers were pretty even. A dozen fillies have entered and there is the usual assortment of sprinters, turnbacks and turf-to-synthetic runners. GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL (Medaglia d'Oro) won the Acorn S. (G1) on dirt going a mile two starts back and returns to the races off a 175-day layoff for Bob Baffert. She broke her maiden last February at Santa Anita going six furlongs, so she can handle synthetics. Mike Smith rides her for the first time which may be an indicator of how fit she is since Garrett Gomez, who you would think would ride for Baffert here, takes the mount on Philadeplphia Park shipper AMAZED BY GRACE (Bowman's Band). Amazed by Grace is owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, but this $35,000 yearling purchase has taken an obscure route to a Grade 1. She has raced exclusively at Philadelphia Park and Charles Town, and has won her last five races in a row. Trained by the always dangerous Guadalupe Preciado, she has excellent early speed which Gomez will have to use with eight horses drawn to her outside. She's never been farther than six furlongs and has never tried synthetics, but shows two solid workouts over it here. Patrick Biancone sends out an interesting runner in ROSE DIAMOND (Ire) (Daylami [Ire]). Group 3-placed in England, she made her American debut a winning one in a downhill sprint here on the turf with Joe Talamo aboard. She came back and ran evenly at Hollywood in a six-furlong turf sprint that had little pace. In the La Brea, she draws outside and there should be more than enough pace to set her up for a big, late run. PINKARELLA (Malibu Moon) beat older fillies and mares last out in fast time and takes a big move up in class for Doug O'Neill. Race 9 is the Malibu S. (G1) which drew 13 sophomores going seven furlongs on the main track. Many in here are going from turf-to-synthetic or long-to-short, and there aren't many that you would call a true sprinter. SMART BID (Smart Strike) has a win at the course and distance in the Damascus S. last out in fast time for Graham Motion. He'll be making his second start off a long layoff and could still be improving. Bob Baffert sends out a pair of contenders in MISREMEMBERED (Candy Ride [Arg]) and MYTHICAL POWER (Congaree). The former won the Swaps S. (G2) this summer going nine furlongs and just missed in the Clark H. (G2) last out at Churchill Downs against a deep field going long. He turns back in distance and will have to keep from getting shuffled back from post 1. The latter returns off a 231-day layoff after winning the Lone Star Derby (G3) last out going two turns and picks up the red-hot Joel Rosario in the irons. PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) turns back in distance after winning the Arkansas Derby (G2) last spring, but he did break his maiden here last year going a mile in good time and has enough speed to keep up early. CORONET OF A BARON (Pure Prize) was a good two-year-old when just missing in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He had a good win here two races back then lost all chance last out when he broke slow from post 1 at today's distance. The finale on the Santa Anita opening day card is a maiden special weight going 6 1/2 furlongs with eight of the eleven entrants being first time starters. What makes this race so tough is all three runners with race experience ran well enough to win here. ZIGGY'S STARDUST (Maria's Mon) rallied for fourth after being bumped at the start. NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (Lido Palace [Chi]) was a good second going seven furlongs first time out and has trained well since then. And LEOTHELION (Lion Heart) missed by a length in his career debut going six furlongs for Mike Puype, who shows a flat-bet profit and a 22 percent strike rate with his second time starters. None of the eight firsters can be dismissed either as they all have either pedigree or trainer angles to support their chances. Bob Baffert sends out CONCORD POINT (Tapit) off a series of strong workouts here. Baffert's win percentage with firsters has risen to 18 percent and Tapit can produce winning debut runners. VICTORY WITH HONOR (Tiznow) hasn't been working very fast for Eoin Harty, but he has a pedigree that suggests first-out success being by a stakes-winning dam plus he gets Garrett Gomez. Humberto Ascanio sends out AD INFINITUM (Storm Cat) for Juddmonte off a steady diet of five-furlong works and a half-mile tightener on Sunday. His dam is ETOILE MONTANTE (Miswaki) who beat males in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1) and then came over here and won two graded stakes for Bobby Frankel on the turf. BIG MAN HAS A SIGN (Petionville) could be a toss since his trainer/pedigree angle with firsters is weak, but his dam is a three-quarter sister to Indian Charlie. SCREAMING DESTINY (Street Cry [Ire]) is a half-brother to two stakes winners. LET GO INDIAN (Indian Charlie) has a speedy pedigree, and while trainer Dan Hendricks only wins with 9 percent of his firsters, he shows a flat-bet profit with them. MIKEYMIKE (Grand Reward) is another firster from Canani that might be worth playing next time. IMPERIAL PRIDE (Limehouse) is by a sire that produced 16 percent first-out winners in his first crop but trainer Bob Hess Jr. only wins with 6 percent of them. My strategy for the late Pick 3 on Saturday at Santa Anita will be to spread out just enough to include contenders at a price. In race 8, I'll go with Gabby's Golden Gal, Amazed by Grace and Pinkarella. In race nine, I'll spread out with Smart Bid, Misremembered, Mythical Power and Cornonet of a Baron. Papa Clem will probably be the favorite and we'll try to beat him. In the finale, Leothelion should improve the most with a race under his belt and a better post and I have a sneaking suspicion that Canani has Big Man Has a Sign cranked up for a big effort.
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