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THOROUGHBRED BEAT

JANUARY 22, 2010

by James Scully

Outcome: Horse of the Year went to the younger filly on Monday night, and the vote wasn't that close. Jess Jackson and Jerry Moss each displayed plenty of class and grace during their acceptance speeches, and I loved Moss' comments afterward: "Nobody's beaten her on the racetrack. So they beat her by proxy as far as I'm concerned."

Even though a tie would've been preferable, I wasn't disappointed to see RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) win over ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]). I thought it was a shame, though, that neither the Mosses nor John Shirreffs (finalists in the leading owner and trainer categories) were honored with an Eclipse Award. In addition to the unbeaten Zenyatta, who became the first female winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), the Moss' light green and pink silks were represented by graded stakes performers like Zardana (Brz) (Crimson Tide), Madeo (Mizzen Mast) and Neko Bay (Giant's Causeway) last season.

Shirreffs was even more deserving. With about 200 fewer horses than Steve Asmussen, he got the absolute most out his runners in 2009. It was a marvelous training job with multiple Grade 1 heroine Life is Sweet (Storm Cat), who earned the first of her four graded victories in the January 18 El Encino S. (G2). Shirreffs kept her going all year, and the filly delivered a career-best when romping by 2 1/2 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1).

Both parties wound up finishing second in their respective categories. There are always complaints about an East Coast bias with the Eclipse Awards, so we probably shouldn't have been surprised to see the Mosses and Shirreffs fall short.

Anticipation: After being retired following the Classic, Zenyatta returned to the worktab in early December. She recorded three half-mile breezes before the Mosses confirmed the rumors last Saturday, announcing that the six-year-old mare will be back under silks in 2010. That decision brought pure joy to Thoroughbred racing fans everywhere, setting the stage for the elusive match-up that everybody craves: Rachel Alexandra vs. Zenyatta.

Where, when and how often that happens is now a topic of endless speculation and debate. The April 3 Apple Blossom H. (G1) at Oaklawn Park, where both distaffers have won before, looked like the perfect spot before Jackson dismissed the idea at the Eclipse Awards, stating that Rachel probably won't be ready in time. She's based at Fair Grounds this winter, and the wet weather in New Orleans has had a negative impact upon her early-season conditioning.

The La Troienne S. (G2) (formerly the Louisville Distaff) on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) undercard is positioned favorably on the calendar for both runners. Zenyatta, who shipped to Churchill Downs last year for the race but was scratched due to the wet track, could easily target a return trip, and Rachel loves Churchill. It makes sense as long as the track is fast.

However, field size should be a concern for Zenyatta's connections. They don't want to hook Rachel in a tiny field that essentially sets up as a match race because it plays to the speedster's advantage. And how many other fillies or mares will enter a race with these two heavy-hitters present?

That brings males into the equation; they won't be scared off by the ladies even if they have little chance of beating them. The Pimlico Special H. (G1), which returns to the stakes schedule this year before the 135th running of the Preakness (G1), is on the table, but it's tough to envision Zenyatta shipping to the Maryland track. The June 12 Stephen Foster H. (G1) at Churchill Downs may be the best spot for their initial encounter.

With the Breeders' Cup Classic being held at Churchill Downs, the 1 1/8-mile Foster holds even more importance for the best older horses in training this year. Imagine what Rachel and Zenyatta would add to the equation.

Gulfstream bias: The rail wasn't the place to be in one-turn dirt races early in the Gulfstream Park meeting. After the first seven days of racing (through January 13), horses starting from the innermost post captured only one of 48 races (2 percent win rate). And that came in a 7 1/2-furlong, off-the-turf event. It was almost the equivalent of starting in quicksand for horses at the rail.

As a result of the bias, horses breaking from inside posts (1-3) were at a big disadvantage on the main track, producing only six victories from 144 starters. I'm willing to excuse a poor showing from an inside gate during that time period and will upgrade any horse who ran well from there. QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) falls into the latter category. He easily won the one-mile Hal's Hope S. (G3) on the opening-day program, but people have knocked his final time. However, critics are probably overlooking the fact that he had to overcome post 2. In the first two races at a mile that afternoon, the exacta paid on 9-10 and 13-12.

The rail is still not preferable going one turn on dirt, but horses have performed better from inside posts recently.


 

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