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BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY PREVIEWS
Twelve runners will line up for the $5 million Classic, the main event of the 15-race Breeders' Cup showcase, and the top two storylines involve Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace. Uncle Mo capped his unbeaten two-year-old season with a dominant victory in the Juvenile at Churchill Downs 12 months ago, but he's never won past 8 1/2 furlongs and faces a difficult assignment stretching out to 1 1/4 miles with little foundation. We have much more respect for the chances of Havre de Grace, who is a nose short of being six-for-six this season, but she might be a little better at 1 1/8 miles and didn't impress us in her previous start at Churchill Downs, a third in last year's Ladies' Classic. We will go in a different direction with a thriving five-year-old from the barn of unheralded conditioner Scooter Dickey. 1ST -- FLAT OUT is based at Churchill Downs and has been training as well as any horse on the grounds in advance of his Classic bid. He's proven at the distance, recording a convincing 2 1/4-length victory in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last out, and rates top billing. Sidelined for nearly two years, the stakes winner reappeared at Fair Grounds last December with an easy score over optional claiming rivals. He wasn't seen again until late May, rallying strongly for runner-up honors in the Grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap (Santa Anita Handicap winner Game on Dude was third), but Flat Out likely regressed off that huge effort when sixth in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap next out. He's been a dynamite performer since the Foster. Flat Out earned his first graded win with a 6 1/2-length romp in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap in early July, netting a 111 BRIS Speed rating, and followed with a good second to a razor-sharp Tizway in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap in early August. He continued to move forward in the Grade 1 Woodward next out, overcoming a wide trip and being steadied in midstretch to post a fast-finishing second, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths, to Havre de Grace. The nine-furlong distance benefited the filly that afternoon, but Flat Out can turn the tables with an extra eighth of a mile on Saturday. The Dickey trainee received his final prep in the October 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, making short work of his overmatched rivals that afternoon, and registered another 111 Speed rating. We don't see any reason why he can't continue to move forward on Saturday. He's training great, posting a pair of recent bullet works, including an effortless half-mile in :46 3/5 on Sunday, and jockey Alex Solis has proven to be the perfect fit since picking up the mount four starts back. And the pace should set up beautifully for the late runner. The top three finishers in last year's Classic were all in the back half of the field after three-quarters of a mile, and Flat Out will be biding his time until the far turn. He will look to move into contention on the final bend and can run past his rivals in the stretch. 2ND -- HAVRE DE GRACE is obviously a huge threat. She's dropped both previous starts at the distance but didn't run poorly either time, finishing only a nose back of Blind Luck in the July 16 Delaware Handicap most recently. What is potentially of greater concern is her trip. Havre de Grace likes to race in striking position, within a few lengths of the pacesetter, and last year's Ladies' Classic was the last time she found herself well behind the early tempo. She offered a nice move on the far turn to reach second, but came up flat in the final furlongs. Those concerns could prove meaningless because the four-year-old filly is all class, registering outstanding BRIS Speed ratings of 111, 110 and 109 this season, and trainer Larry Jones knows how to get her ready for her best. Her 8 1/4-length romp in the Grade 1 Beldame last out was visually impressive and we expect her to be in the thick of things turning for home on Saturday, looking to accelerate past the tiring speed. Havre de Grace will take some beating and we will box her with our top choice in the exacta. 3RD -- SO YOU THINK, who established himself as an Australian superstar in 2009-10, made a successful transition to the European turf this season for Aidan O' Brien, posting a pair of Group 1 wins at the 1 1/4-mile distance, and the 10-furlong specialist will be dangerous if he takes to the dirt. That's the great unknown, but Churchill Downs' main track can play favorably for turf runners (Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Foster hero Pool Play were both making their dirt debut) and So You Think owns some tactical speed. In fact, O'Brien will add blinkers in an apparent attempt to sharpen him up during the early stages. Coolmore isn't afraid to point their top horses to the Classic, finishing second with both Giant's Causeway (2000 at Churchill) and Henrythenavigator (2008), and will be sending forth a talented runner in So You Think. We expect to see him stalking the pace in midpack and will use him on the bottom of the top three. OTHERS -- DROSSELMEYER was sidelined after a slow win in the Belmont Stakes last year and didn't show a whole lot in his first five starts this year, but the Bill Mott-trained colt exits an encouraging second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, displaying a nice turn of foot to rally past rivals in the final furlongs. He equaled a career-best 109 BRIS Speed rating last time and has trained forwardly at Churchill in advance of the Classic. And Mike Smith, the second all-time leading rider in Breeders' Cup history with 13 wins, will retake the mount for the first time since last year's Belmont. We will include him on the bottom of the exotics at long odds. RULER ON ICE, this year's Belmont winner, was too far back to make a serious impact in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby last time but offered a solid run for second, netting a 121 BRIS Late Pace rating. The Kelly Breen pupil has posted commendable BRIS numbers in his last four outings and owns a favorable run style here with his closing kick. At 30-1 on the morning line, Ruler on Ice will offer plenty of value and has a chance to get involved late for a minor award. TO HONOR AND SERVE is a very promising prospect for next season, but the speedy colt must avoid going too fast during the early stages here. Bred to relish extended distances, he got tired at the end of the nine-furlong Pennsylvania Derby last out and we're not convinced he's suited for the 1 1/4-mile trip at this stage of his career. But To Honor and Serve has turned things around since a dismal beginning to his three-year-old campaign, when he came up with a suspensory injury, recording Speed ratings of 112 and 107 in his last two wins, and appears to be training splendidly for the Classic. He's a candidate to hold for part. Multiple Grade 1 winner GAME ON DUDE and UNCLE MO will likely be first and second, respectively, during the opening stages and we will take a stand against the front runners. STAY THIRSTY and RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE haven't run poorly in their recent starts, but we can't recommend the chances of either one in this spot. HEADACHE and ICE BOX look overmatched.
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