HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

FEBRUARY 25, 2006

by Dick Powell

I like turf racing and I like turf racing at Gulfstream Park. But my bankroll hasn't been liking turf racing at Gulfstream Park this meet and it's been driving me nuts.

Being naturally obsessive and compulsive, I decided that I had to go over every imaginable detail of turf racing at Gulfstream to figure out what I've been doing wrong and how I can correct it.

The biggest mistake I've been making at Gulfstream this year has been not paying enough attention to where the rail is on the turf course and understanding the resulting implications.

When Gulfstream extended their main track from one mile to the current 1 1/8 miles, they installed a new turf course that took advantage of the additional space. The previous seven-furlong turf course is now 160 feet wide and racing can be conducted in eight different "lanes," each one 12 feet out incrementally from the inside. When the rail is set at 60 feet or more (either 72 or 84 feet), the running distance is about one mile.

Normally, with this much room, there would be two separate and distinct turf courses - each with their own characteristics. But at Gulfstream, there is one big, wide turf course that must be treated like two different turf courses.

When the rail is at 0 feet, the turf course behaves like the Inner Turf Course at Saratoga. Inside posts tend to dominate and horses who get wide, stalking trips are severely compromised.

When the rail is at least 60 feet out, the turf course behaves like the Mellon Turf Course at Saratoga. Outside posts now have a fighting chance and horses coming from behind can make a wide, sweeping move and get up in time. Inside speed horses do not have the advantage that they have when the rail is down on the inside.

The following list displays the rail position for each day of racing in the first seven weeks:

January 4, 7, 8		84 feet
January 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16		60 feet
January 19, 20, 21, 22		36 feet
January 25, 26, 27		0 feet
January 28		72 feet
January 29 races 5 and 9		0 feet
January 29 race 7		72 feet
February 1, 2, 3		72 feet
February 4 and 5		off the turf
February 6		72 feet
February 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13		48 feet
February 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20		24 feet

Save this chart and update it as the meet progresses. Charts of the Gulfstream Park turf races usually have the rail position in them -- if there is no notation it means that the rail was set at 0 feet.

However, past performance lines do not have the rail position of prior turf races at Gulfstream, so the above chart should be invaluable.

As you can see, the first three days of racing on the Gulfstream Park turf course had the rail at 84 feet. Not a single horse went gate-to-wire in nine races, and the winning post positions were 8, 7, 10, 8, 7, 12, 10, 3 and 2. The turf was listed as "firm" each day and no matter what the pace scenario, horses that came from far back on the outside dominated.

I think that this is when my slump began because the evidence was there that outside closers were going to be tough at Gulfstream this year on the turf.

In week two, with the rail at 60 feet, we finally had a few horses win on or near the front end in the 16 races conducted. MOONSHINE GAL (Forest Wildcat) went gate-to-wire in race 8 on January 12 in what was the 13th turf race of the meet and was one of four front-end winners on the turf that week. If you still had week one on your mind, you probably had a bad week two.

Week three saw the temporary rail set at 36 feet and three of the nine winners leading gate to wire. Winning running styles were varied and the course played extremely fair.

Week four had the rail set at its innermost position of 0 feet the first three days, at 72 feet for the three turf races on January 28 and the 7TH race on January 29, and at 0 feet for races 5 and 9 on January 29. Of the 11 races run on the far inside, horses forwardly placed or rallying on the inside had the advantage. Of the four races run with the rail set at 72 feet, all were won from off the pace.

Week five had the rail at 72 feet for the four days of racing that survived the only real rainy spell of the meet. At this point, I should have understood the cause-and-effect relationship of the location of the temporary rail on the turf course and at 72 feet, I should have been looking at horses who might need an extra sixteenth of a mile to get up in time.

But, with the rail down for most of week four, the data my brain was processing was recent images of horses up near the lead doing well. Week five contained 10 turf races and only JET PROPULSION (Double Honor) was able to go gate to wire. A few pace prompters were able to win; the rest were deep closers.

There were 18 turf races run in week six when the rail was set at 48 feet. As you would expect from the middle position, a variety of running styles were successful.

Finally, the rail was set at 24 feet in week seven and five of the 19 turf races were won gate to wire. Pace prompters did well and only a few horses were able to rally from far back and get up in time.

I know this is terrible science and an example of what I accuse others of doing, using "anecdotal evidence," but go back to Jerry Bailey's last ride in the saddle. It was on Sunshine Millions day - the Cloverleaf Farms Turf S. Jerry was aboard the 9-10 favorite, Silver Tree (Hennessy), and did everything that made him one of the great riders of his time.

He saved ground, waited for room and exploded when the hole opened up on the rail in the deep stretch.

Unfortunately, the "gods of racing" were against Jerry that day because the rail was set at 72 feet. At 1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream has to run this distance with the rail farther out with the starting gate a furlong from the finish line. If the race were run with the rail down on the inside, the starting gate would have to be two furlongs from the finish line which would put it past the top of the stretch on the far turn.

One-dimensional closer MIESQUE'S APPROVAL (Miesque's Son) was able to rally that day out in the middle of the track on the far turn and get up in time, denying Bailey and horse racing the fairy tale ending that was hoped for. The rail set at 72 feet didn't beat Bailey, but it sure helped Miesque's Approval win.

At Saratoga, favorites win more races on the Mellon Turf Course than on the inner turf course, even with more starters per race. Logic says this happens because the wider turns enable horses that have had traffic trouble enough time to overcome it. The Inner Turf Course at Saratoga has more bad trips with traffic problems being too much to overcome.

However, at Gulfstream, the percentage of winning favorites is not much different from the outer rail positions to the inner rail positions. Overall, 26 favorites have won the 96 turf races run at Gulfstream in the first seven weeks, a win rate of 27 percent.

For 24 turf races where the rail was placed at either 72 or 84 feet, only five favorites won (21 percent win). I would have guessed that favorites would have fared better than the par average of 27 percent with the rail out and the wider turns, but that was not the case. And the average win price was not much different than the overall average win price of $16.63 for the 96 turf races run under all conditions.

So what are we to learn from all this. First and foremost, if you are playing multiple race wagers like Pick-3s and Pick-4s, you better spread out in the turf races. With only 27 percent of the favorites winning and the average win price being $16.63, it would be pretty hard to single a turf race and be confident knowing the trend that you are going against.

Second, I would pay close attention to where the rail is set today and where it was set when today's entrants ran in prior turf races here. There was a strong correlation between the placement of the rail affecting the success of various running styles. If the rail is set 60 feet out or farther, I might be willing to take a chance on a horse breaking from an extreme outside post. I wouldn't go against all speed horses when the rail is set far out, but there would have to be strong factors in their favor for me to expect them to hang on.

With the rail down on the inside, I would give horses breaking from inside posts and/or those with tactical speed an edge over the wide closers. A favorite who only rallies from far back would be worth taking a stand against under these circumstances. Versatile turf horses with smart riders merit the edge in this case.