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BELMONT REPORT MAY 23, 2013 by James Scully Oxbow pulled a classic theft in Saturday's Preakness. Credit Gary Stevens for seizing the initiative. The 50-year-old Hall of Fame jockey took expectations of a contested pace scenario and turned them upside down, guiding Oxbow to a clear lead passing the stands for the first time. The dark bay colt traveled comfortably into the first turn on about a two-length advantage and never felt the brunt of pressure. I had Oxbow pegged as the Kentucky Derby pacesetter and expected him to be on or close to the lead in the Preakness. But I couldn't envision how easily it came, not with Goldencents, Govenor Charlie, Titletown Five and Itsmyluckyday all bringing potential speed to the equation. What looked like a contested pace scenario on paper quickly dissipated as the riders of the other speed horses allowed Stevens to outsmart them. Oxbow strolled through reasonable fractions of :23.94, :48.60 and 1:13.26 before offering his patented move into the stretch, drawing away with authority. He accelerated off the far turn in every previous start this year except the Arkansas Derby, when the rider mistakenly took a hold of him early. Oxbow turned a short advantage into a landslide victory in January's Lecomte Stakes and offered the same move in upper stretch of the Risen Star and Rebel. He couldn't sustain a clear lead in the latter two, which called his overall quality into question, but I was impressed by his sixth-place effort in the Kentucky Derby. After chasing a wicked pace on Derby Day, Oxbow found his best stride leaving the far turn, drawing even with Normandy Invasion with approximately a quarter-mile remaining. "Coming into the stretch, I had a big smile on my face. I'm going to win my fourth (Derby)," Stevens said of Oxbow's move in the Kentucky Derby. "But five strides later, I was attacked from the outside for a couple strides, and they went on." Oxbow saved plenty for the finish after an ideal trip in the Preakness and will look to do the same in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes three weeks later. Of course, this time the competition will be well aware of the consequences of allowing him an easy lead. And the presence of speedball Freedom Child, a runaway winner of the May 11 Peter Pan, should guarantee him company on the front end. At least that's the way it looks on paper. It would have been one thing if Orb had offered a run that came up short, but his no-show Preakness performance proved difficult to watch. He essentially threw in the towel when shuffled back to eighth entering the far turn and clunked up late for fourth after Departing and Goldencents slowed to a crawl in deep stretch. The negative backlash came as no surprise -- Orb was being hailed as Triple Crown worthy by a large segment of the audience and couldn't hit the board at Pimlico. But I'm willing to cut him a little slack considering that he won five straight beforehand, including three graded stakes. I don't expect any other three-year-olds from this crop to match that accomplishment. Itsmyluckyday, who got first run in the Florida Derby before being overhauled by Orb in a convincing victory, also flattered his counterpart by finishing second in the Preakness. The fact remains that it's difficult to get an accurate gauge on Orb at this point in his career. My take is simple: Orb was overrated following the Derby win and is being underrated following the Preakness setback. Let's see what he can do in the future. The Belmont will offer the opportunity for a measure of redemption and Saturday's defeat might be the best thing for fans hoping to see Orb next year. That's something Shug McGaughey spoke repeatedly of earlier this season when stating that they would allow Orb to take them to the Derby not the other way around. He believed Orb would be better at age four and that prospect is an exciting one. Alysheba, the champion three-year-old of 1987, shows the difference an added year of maturity can make. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner posted three consecutive first-place finishes in 1987 before dropping four of his final five starts that season. Alysheba didn't run poorly in all those losses, but there's no debating that he developed into a much more formidable horse at age four, winning seven of nine attempts and Horse of the Year honors. A Belmont victory would go a long way toward Orb securing champion three-year-old honors and he would have the same potential for improvement as an older horse.
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