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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MARCH 10, 2006 by Dick Powell Is the glass half full or half empty? Or in FIRST SAMURAI's (Giant's Causeway) case, is it one-tenth full or nine-tenths empty? Last Saturday's Fountain of Youth S. (G2) from Gulfstream Park was First Samurai's first chance to try two turns. He was an even third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Belmont going 1 1/16 miles to end his juvenile season on a sour note, setting off the naysayers. The two horses that beat him that day will not be competing in this year's Triple Crown, so many handicappers made First Samurai a reluctant leader in the division earlier in the year. In the Hutcheson S. (G2) going 7 1/2 furlongs on a very sloppy track at Gulfstream, First Samurai was not able to get by the brilliant KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) and finished 1 1/2 lengths behind in very fast time as the 3-5 favorite. More disappointment followed, setting off a mad rush to find someone else to hype for this year's Kentucky Derby (G1). But the fact is that even if First Samurai were to win the Triple Crown this year he wasn't going to beat Keyed Entry that day at that distance on that track. BRIS gave him a career best 110 speed rating for the Hutcheson and he looked primed and ready for his two-turn debut in the Fountain of Youth. However, one thing that First Samurai had against him was the dreaded "bounce" theory. When a horse runs a career-best race, they usually react negatively to the stress of the effort and run poorly next time out. Even with two strong workouts since his last start, First Samurai was a definite candidate for a bounce. In the Fountain of Youth, Edgar Prado sent First Samurai right to the front in the short run to the first turn. He showed he is athletic enough to break well and use his natural speed to gain position but mature enough to relax once Prado asked him to. So far, very impressive. They were able to hold the lead in the run down the backstretch while covering the first half in :48.30 over a track that seemed to get slower as the day went on. After a :24.06 second third quarter, First Samurai still had the lead around the far turn but he was under heavy pressure. Flashy Bull (Holy Bull) was pressing the pace on the outside and the enigmatic Corinthian (Pulpit) was passing horses willingly to gain ground on the outside. As the field straightened out in the stretch, Corinthian seized the lead and looked like a sure winner, but the fireworks were just about to begin. An impressive winner of a first-level allowance event going nine furlongs here a month ago, he lugged in before the eighth pole and forced Prado to take up aboard First Samurai. Prado swung to the outside and began to get back into the race, but Corinthian began to bear out in the stretch, carrying First Samurai out about four paths and into Flashy Bull as they neared the finish line. Corinthian finished first by a length and Prado won the battle for the place by a neck over Flashy Bull. Immediately, Corinthian's number began to blink and Prado filed a claim of foul. Once the head-on replay was shown, it was obvious that Corinthian was coming down and First Samurai's gutsy response after being interfered with enabled him to win his two-turn debut. You can analyze the Fountain of Youth 10 times and come up with 10 different reactions. With the dearth of Derby prep races, how you analyze this race will have dramatic implications on how you are going to handicap the Derby itself. Here's my take: On Saturday, Corinthian ran the best race in terms of effort. He gained ground on the leaders with no trouble despite a slow pace and exploded when Javier Castellano asked him to go. His fourth quarter of :23 and change was extremely impressive. However, his fourth quarter, run from midway around the far turn to midstretch, was faster than his others and his erratic running was not a sign that he was getting tired, but that he is still very green. Yes, he has a world of talent and I love his pedigree for distance racing on the dirt. The Fountain of Youth was his second start of the year, second start going two turns and only his fourth lifetime start. His trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, is a top horsemen but still hasn't found the key to getting him to run straight. In today's world of racing as little as possible, he will probably only have one start between now and the first Saturday of May, and he is going to have to gain the experience and maturity he needs in the morning, not in the afternoon. Some horses figure it out but others never do, so Corinthian will always be a risk until he can prove he can run straight and fully utilize his world of talent. Flashy Bull and My Golden Song (Unbridled's Song) ran strong races despite eventful trips. They were part of a three-horse place photo, but if you dislike First Samurai -- and many do since he closed at 16-1 odds in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool Two -- how do you like these two horses he beat after he was taken up and then carried out? My take is that First Samurai showed that he can rate nicely, show late energy (last three-eighths run in :36.64) and show courage under adverse conditions. Sometimes the Kentucky Derby resembles a Demolition Derby, and First Samurai showed that he can get down and dirty. The fact that he was passed after setting a very slow pace is less important to me since I don't believe that he'll be anywhere near the early lead when the big money is on the line. He gave four pounds to the entire field and BRIS gave him a 101 speed rating, so even when he bounced he was right there with Grade 2 types. Here's what worries me about First Samurai. Not only is he racing at Gulfstream Park, but he's training there. He's had nine timed workouts -- many of them very fast -- and two races. Last year, when Gulfstream re-surfaced their main track it was dramatically slower with a deeper, kinder cushion. This year, Gulfstream looks like the old Gulfstream with blazing-fast running times being run on the main track. The effect of racing and training over a rock-hard surface usually shows up down the road. If First Samurai goes to Keeneland for the Blue Grass S. (G1), he'll be virtually unbeatable on that speed-favoring track. But the key will be how much wear and tear he has to endure between now and May 6. Is he the best of his class? In my mind, the answer is yes, but obviously I am in a shrinking minority. But whether or not he will be the same horse two months from now is the real question. If he is, we'll all be kicking ourselves for not betting more money at 16-1 odds.
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