Company seeks to go out on top in Mile Championship

Eight-year-old veteran COMPANY (Miracle Admire), who became the oldest horse ever to win a Japanese Grade 1 race when capturing the Tenno Sho (Autumn) (Jpn-G1) last time out, will attempt to conclude his career on a high note in Sunday's $2.2 million Mile Championship (Jpn-G1). The bay horse has tried the Kyoto feature twice before, finishing fifth in 2007 and fourth last year, but is in his all-time best form at present.

A fixture on the Japanese scene for several years, Company originally appeared to have reached his plateau as a Grade 2 winner who was not quite up to handling Grade 1 competition. Over time, he gradually improved his results at the top level, until reaching the peak of his powers this season.

Company kicked off his 2009 campaign with a successful title defense in the Nakayama Kinen (Jpn-G2), followed by a near-miss in the Yomiuri Milers Cup (Jpn-G2) and a pair of commendable fourths in both the Yasuda Kinen (Jpn-G1) and Takarazuka Kinen (Jpn-G1). The Hidetaka Otonashi trainee turned the corner when returning from his summer break in the Mainichi Okan (Jpn-G2), rallying from midpack to defeat reigning Horse of the Year Vodka (Tanino Gimlet) by one length. In the process, Company gained revenge on Vodka for beating him previously in the Yasuda Kinen.

Conventional wisdom had it that the Mainichi Okan was merely a prep for the about 1 1/4-mile Tenno Sho (Autumn), where a sharper Vodka was expected to prevail. Instead, however, it was Company who confirmed the form by bursting to a 1 3/4-length decision over Screen Hero (Grass Wonder), with Vodka back in third.

Company is dropping back in trip to the metric mile for the first time since the Yasuda Kinen, but will not meet any of the top three from that race here. His current form makes him the one to beat with regular rider Norihiro Yokoyama.

Two international shippers will test the strength of the Japanese form. Both are fillies who arrive in the wake of career-best performances.

French-based SAHPRESA (Sahm), who had finished fourth to mile star Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) in the Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1) this summer, comes off an upset score in the Sun Chariot S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket. In that test, Sahpresa dismissed favored Ghanaati, heroine of the One Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) and Coronation S. (Eng-G1), by 1 1/2 lengths. Olivier Peslier, a two-time winner of the Mile Championship with Zenno El Cid (2001) and Hat Trick (Jpn) (2005), picks up the mount aboard the Rod Collet trainee at Kyoto.

Trainer Mick Channon, who sent out Lahaleeb (Ire) (Redback) to shock the E. P. Taylor S. (Can-G1) at Woodbine last month, will be represented by a more logical contender in EVA'S REQUEST (Soviet Star). The four-year-old, who had been unplaced behind Goldikova twice this summer, is two-for-two since teaming up with new rider Alan Munro. Successful in the Istanbul Trophy on the turf two back at Veliefendi, she got up in time in a blanket finish in the recent Premio Lydia Tesio (Ity-G1) at Capannelle. Like Company, Eva's Request is turning back in trip on the heels of that about 10-furlong event. Munro makes the trek to the Far East to renew their partnership.

Of the remaining members of the 18-horse field, perhaps the most intriguing is CAPTAIN THULE (Agnes Tachyon), the winner of last year's Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas) (Jpn-G1), who has strong historical precedent on his side. Both Satsuki Sho winners who have attempted the Mile Championship have won: Genuine (1995 Satsuki Sho/1996 Mile Championship) and Daiwa Major (2004 Satsuki Sho), who lost by a nose in his first crack at the Mile Championship in 2005, but went on to win the next two runnings in 2006-07.

Captain Thule was sidelined by injury following his Satsuki Sho coup and did not reappear for nearly 16 months. The Hideyuki Mori pupil won his second start back, taking the Asahi Challenge Cup (Jpn-G3) at Hanshin, but flopped when 12th in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). Captain Thule could prosper back at the metric mile here, as could Grade 3 victor SMILE JACK (Tanino Gimlet).

Other contenders include Grade 1 veteran FINE GRAIN (Fuji Kiseki), who was third in last year's Mile Championship but has been well beaten in his three starts this season; New Zealand Trophy (Jpn-G2) victor SAN CARLO (Symboli Kris S), who figures to show much more in his second start off a layoff; ABSOLUTE (Tanino Gimlet) and MARUKA SHENCK (Sunday Silence), the respective top two who fought out a photo-finish in the Saudi Arabia Royal Cup Fuji S. (Jpn-G3) last out; Keio Hai Spring Cup (Jpn-G2) scorer SUZUKA CAUSEWAY (Giant's Causeway), who is steadily rounding into form at present; sophomore stakes winner FIFTH PETAL (King Kamehameha), a troubled eighth in the Mainichi Broadcast Swan S. (Jpn-G2) who lures Christophe Lemaire into the saddle; and multiple Grade 3-placed filly ZAREMA (Dance in the Dark), who gets the services of Christophe Soumillon.

Conduit, Summer Bird arrive in Japan

Four international invaders jetted into Narita Airport in Japan on Thursday. Two-time Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) hero CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani), Canadian Grade 1 victor MARSH SIDE (Gone West) and Italian Group 1 winner SCINTILLO (Fantastic Light) are all contenders for the November 29 Japan Cup (Jpn-G1). Multiple Grade 1 star SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) is bound for the December 6 Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-G1).

Conduit and Scintillo endured a 15-hour journey from England, while Marsh Side and Summer Bird's travel time from Southern California was 12 hours. Marsh Side left Neil Drysdale's base at Hollywood Park, and the Tim Ice-trained Summer Bird departed Santa Anita.

Once arriving in Japan, the quartet was then transported to the JRA Horseracing School Quarantine Center in Shiroi City.

"The horse is in fine condition and does not seem to be worn out from the trip," said Conduit's groom Neil Varley. "This visit to Japan and the race will probably be the highlight of my life, so I'm looking forward to it. It's an honor just to be here for the Japan Cup, but since we've come all this way, we will give it our best."

Conduit, a strong fourth in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) two back, is coming off his second straight score in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita. The Sir Michael Stoute charge is expected to make his final career start in the approximately $6 million Japan Cup. Plans call for the chestnut to retire to stud next year at Shigeyuki Okada's Big Red Farm in Japan.

Conduit has won two races this season that qualify him for lucrative bonuses if he performs well in the about 1 1/2-mile turf test at Tokyo. In addition to the Breeders' Cup Turf, he also captured the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot this summer, and either one would have made him eligible according to the Japan Cup bonus structure. Conduit stands to pocket a $1,368,000 bonus if he wins the Japan Cup, a $547,000 windfall if he places second, and an extra $342,000 if he finishes third.

Marsh Side, most recently fourth as the defending champion in the Canadian International (Can-G1), walked around the stable area on Friday and seems to be in fine form with great appetite.

"He's in very good condition," assistant trainer Marcelino Olguin said. "(The Japan Cup) is expected to be a tough race. We'll give it our best to get the best result."

Marsh Side hopes to have a better experience in his second foray to the Japan Cup. Last year, he developed a fever and cough after arriving and had to be scratched at the last minute.

Runner-up to American divisional leader Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat) in the Manhattan H. (G1) in June, Marsh Side crossed the wire first in the Northern Dancer Turf S. (Can-G1) at Woodbine in September, only to be disqualified and placed fourth for causing interference.

Marsh Side is the third and final American-based hope to arrive for the Japan Cup. JUST AS WELL (A.P. Indy), who was awarded the victory in the Northern Dancer Turf, and INTERPATATION (Langfuhr), who upset Gio Ponti in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational S. (G1), both shipped in Monday.

The Richard Hannon-trained Scintillo was a late addition to the Japan Cup. The four-year-old has failed to shine since landing the Grand Prix de Chantilly (Fr-G2) in May, winding up seventh in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Fr-G1), a tailed-off last of nine behind Conduit in the King George and a distant sixth in the Prix du Conseil de Paris (Fr-G2) last out.

"He is in very good form and seems to have found a liking for the stalls here at the international stables. He looks fresh and is enjoying himself," said Scintillo's groom Anna Kowalczyk. "As for his training, I will wait for orders from the trainer, but tomorrow, we'll only walk him around and not enter the track. The Japan Cup is a world-class race, and I'm delighted that we were invited here and to participate in a race of this caliber." 

"Scintillo left on Thursday, and everything seems to have gone according to plan," Hannon commented on his website, richardhannon.tv, on Friday. "Richard Jr. will be flying out next Tuesday, and we will give the horse a spin on the track midweek.

"I am delighted to have snapped up Gerald Mosse, who has a great record in Japan and is a world-class jockey.

"Scintillo might be one of the outsiders, but he is a decent colt, as he showed when winning at Chantilly last summer. The ground was rattling fast that day and conditions could well be similar in Japan, which would suit him ideally. He has a terrific turn of foot, and, while it is a very hot race, we are not going out there just for the sushi!"

Scintillo will eventually continue his racing career in Australia for new owner Leonard Lucas.

Japan Cup Dirt contender Summer Bird, the leading candidate for an Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male, seemed to have taken his transpacific trek in stride.

"His condition is well. We'll walk him around the track tomorrow (Friday)," Ice said upon the colt's arrival. "I'm not aware of the competition, so I can't say much, but we're very much looking forward to the race."

Ice added that he would decide on his training regimen on a day-to-day basis, based upon Summer Bird's condition.

As the winner of the Belmont S. (G1), Travers S. (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), Summer Bird is eligible for bonuses should he place in the top three in the approximately $3 million Japan Cup Dirt. Summer Bird would rake in an extra $1,052,000 if he wins the Japan Cup Dirt, an extra $421,000 if he finishes second, or an extra $263,000 if he finishes third.

Summer Bird, who was a distant second to Horse of the Year candidate Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) in the Haskell Invitational (G1) in August, was most recently a gallant fourth to Horse of the Year candidate Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).

The Japan Cup Dirt, contested at about 1 1/8 miles at Hanshin, would mark Summer Bird's first try at a right-handed track.

Cigar Mile candidates to work over weekend

Schooling sessions for Edward P. Evans' QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) continue Saturday morning at Aqueduct, where the three-year-old will go through the paddock and load into the gate with jockey John Velazquez aboard as his connections ponder a start in the Cigar Mile H. (G1) on November 28.

"We'll try to simulate a race scenario a little bit, and see if we can load him without incident," said Pletcher of Quality Road, who was scratched from the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Santa Anita on November 7 after a meltdown at the gate. "He'll breeze on Sunday, we'll see how that goes, and get with Mr. Evans and come up with a plan."

Quality Road arrived back in New York on Tuesday by van, and began schooling sessions at Belmont Park the following morning under the supervision of Bob Duncan, the former starter for the New York Racing Association, who frequently works as a consultant.

"I think he's handled everything since he's shipped in," Pletcher said. "He's done as well as you can hope for, but obviously this wouldn't be the way you would draw it up. He's been schooling perfect. The whole gate crew has gone out of their way, which we appreciate."

Pletcher added that MUNNINGS (Speightstown), coming off a trio of third-place finishes in the Vosburgh S. (G1), King's Bishop S. (G1) and Haskell Invitational (G1), will start in the Cigar Mile whether or not Quality Road goes.

"One has nothing to do with the other, really," he said. "I think Munnings gets a mile, no problem. If you look back at his Haskell at a mile and an eighth, he was right there at the eighth pole, and was just beaten by Summer Bird (Birdstone). Obviously, Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) was an impressive winner but I felt he held his own pretty well."

Meanwhile, Rick Mettee, assistant to trainer Saeed bin Suroor, said that VINEYARD HAVEN (Lido Palace [Chi]), who won the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1) in his most recent start, may work once more for the Cigar Mile.

Vineyard Haven worked six furlongs in 1:13 at Belmont Park on Thursday.

"We'll see what the weather does next week. He should be spot on for this race," said Mettee, adding that a decision would be made about Forego S. (G1) winner PYRO (Pulpit), who was 10th in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), following his scheduled work this Sunday.

"If Pyro breezes good on Sunday we may take a shot in the Cigar Mile; he may run as an entry with Vineyard Haven," he said.

Top Godolphin mares retired; Sara Louise confirmed for Top Flight

Rick Mettee, assistant to trainer Saeed bin Suroor, confirmed Friday that Godolphin's Grade 1-winning triumvirate of MUSIC NOTE (A.P. Indy), COCOA BEACH (Chi) (Doneraile Court) and SEVENTH STREET (Street Cry [Ire]) have all been retired.

Music Note finished a close second to Proud Spell in the balloting for champion three-year-old filly in 2008 after wins in the Mother Goose S. (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Gazelle S. (G1). She ran second to Proud Spell in the Alabama S. (G1) and third to Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (G1). This season, Music Note won the Ballerina S. (G1) and Beldame S. (G1) prior to a repeat third in the Ladies' Classic. She retires with a mark of 12-7-1-2, $1,615,000.

Cocoa Beach, the 2008 Horse of the Year in Chile, captured the Beldame and Matriarch S. (G1) in 2008 and was second to Zenyatta in the Ladies' Classic. From five starts this season, the five-year-old captured the De La Rose S. at Saratoga and was third in the Lady's Secret S. (G1). Her career ends with a mark of 16-10-2-2, $1,744,905.

Seventh Street finishes with a record of 10-5-3-1, $716,000. She won the Apple Blossom H. (G1) and Go for Wand H. (G1) and placed second in the Ogden Phipps H. (G1), Ruffian H. (G1) and Barbara Fritchie H. (G2), but was unplaced in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) in her final start.

Mettee also confirmed that stable stars JUSTENUFFHUMOR (Distorted Humor), REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) and GAYEGO (Gilded Time) would winter in Dubai, while SARA LOUISE (Malibu Moon) and VINEYARD HAVEN (Lido Palace [Chi]) will remain in the United States.

"We'll pick them up in the spring when we return," Mettee said.

Sara Louise, fourth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in her most recent start, breezed Thursday morning in in preparation for the November 27 Top Flight H. (G2) over one mile.

"Sara Louise ran okay (in the Breeders' Cup)," Mettee said. "We thought she would actually move up on the synthetic they way she trained over it, but she didn't. We thought she would be a competitive third in there and to see her come in a modest fourth was a little surprising. She'll run in the Top Flight and then get the winter off."

KTO honors Wiggins as Horseman of the Year

Veteran trainer Hal Wiggins, nearing the end of a distinguished training career capped by a record-smashing victory by Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), will be honored on Saturday as the recipient of the 2008 Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year Award, which is presented annually by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners (KTO).

Wiggins will receive the award during the KTO's 21st annual awards dinner, which is scheduled for 6 p.m. (EST) at the Big Spring Country Club, 5901 Dutchmans Lane, in Louisville, Kentucky.

Since 1989 the KTO has presented the Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year Award to a member of the racing industry who displays the spirit and passion for the sport exhibited by the late Warner L. Jones Jr., the famed Kentucky Thoroughbred breeder and owner and former chairman of the board of Churchill Downs.

Wiggins, 66, plans to retire at the conclusion of the Churchill Downs fall meet on November 28, ending a distinguished training career than spans 34 years. The third-generation horseman launched that career with Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses in Louisiana in 1975, but Wiggins enjoyed his greatest success after he moved his training base to Kentucky.

His clear career highlight came this spring when he saddled Dolphus Morrison and Mike Lauffer's Rachel Alexandra to score a record-smashing 20 1/4-length victory in the 135th running of the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill. The homebred miss was purchased after that win by Stonestreet Stable and went on to record one of the most remarkable campaigns by a three-year-old filly in American racing history. Rachel Alexandra is among the front-runners for the Eclipse Award for 2009 Horse of the Year.

Wiggins has saddled nearly 870 winners in his training career. Other stars conditioned by the native of Port Arthur, Texas, include Chorwon, a three-time winner of the Louisville H. at Churchill who earned more than $1 million in his career, as well as Morris Code, a multiple stakes winner who earned $745,000 in her career.

Upon retirement, Wiggins and his wife, Renee, plan to move back home to Texas. Their son, Lon, is a Thoroughbred trainer based in Illinois.

The previous winners of the KTO's Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year Award are Shug McGaughey (1989), Arthur B. Hancock III (1990), Woodford C. "Woody" Stephens (1991), Pat Day (1992), MacKenzie "Mack" Miller (1993), William. T. Young (1994), D. Wayne Lukas (1995), Allen R. Paulson (1996), James M. "Jim" Bolus (1997), W. Elliott Walden (1998), William S. Farish (1999), James E. "Ted" Basset III (2000), Jennie Rees (2001), Kenneth McPeek (2002), Dale Romans (2003), Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey (2004), John Asher (2005), Thomas H. Meeker (2006), Carl Nafzger (2007) and Brereton C. Jones (2008).

Jockeys to contribute to Brimo fund

On November 28, jockeys across North America will be asked to contribute one mount fee to the Julia Brimo Fund, set up to assist with her expenses during rehabilitation for her injuries.

Brimo suffered head and back injuries in a spill at Keeneland on October 30 and is currently a patient at the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto. Early next week, she is expected to be transferred to the Lyndhurst Centre, a leading spinal cord rehabilitation facility also in Toronto.

In honor of Brimo, and to raise awareness of the plight of seriously injured jockeys, riders across North America will wear two patches on their boots on November 28. One patch will feature her name, "Julia," on it while the other will highlight the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund (PDJF).

The Julia Brimo Fund was established at Fifth Third Bank by Cindy Werner, the wife of trainer Ronny Werner. Contributions can be made to the Fund by sending a check, made out to the Julia Brimo Fund, to Cindy Werner at 1116 Flat Rock Road, Louisville, KY, 40245.

Mafaaz recuperating at farm after summer scare

Mafaaz still has a way to go before returning to the races (Courtesy of Britain's Jockey Club Racecourses) Shadwell Stable's MAFAAZ (GB) (Medicean), the winner of the March 18 Kentucky Derby Challenge at Kempton Park in England, suffered a serious illness over the summer after joining Kiaran McLaughlin, assistant trainer Neal McLaughlin revealed Thursday. Formerly conditioned by John Gosden, Mafaaz earned an automatic berth in the 135th Run for the Roses by virtue of his victory at Kempton. Gosden shipped him to Keeneland for the April 11 Blue Grass S. (G1) to see how he would fare against U.S. competition before going on to the Derby. Mafaaz ran eighth behind General Quarters (Sky Mesa) and was subsequently transferred to the McLaughlin barn. His Derby quest was abandoned, with a view toward switching him to turf. Mafaaz has not raced since.

"He is back on the farm and he seems like a happy horse," Neal McLaughlin said. "After we got him, he was gelded and then went to Saratoga the first of June.

"He was there about a week and got real sick. He lost muscle and started losing protein through his liver. It was pretty dangerous and we have no idea what caused it."

Mafaaz spent more than three months at the Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine at Tufts University in Massachusetts.

"I got a little jealous because the vet there got to spend more time with him than I have," McLaughlin said. "I only got to see him a few days in the spring and then again at the farm.

"He's a neat horse and I was excited about American racing for him. I don't know if he will make it back to the races. Hopefully he will. Things seem to be going well."

BST providing Thanksgiving dinner to NYRA backstretch

Bollam, Sheedy, Torani, & Co (BST), Financial and Management Consultants, will once again underwrite a special Thanksgiving meal at both Belmont Park and Aqueduct so that more than 500 backstretch workers will have the opportunity to share in the true spirit of the holiday. It will mark the third year the Albany, New York, based firm has sponsored the feast for the Backstretch Employees Service Team (B.E.S.T).

For many of the grooms, hotwalkers and exercise riders who work on the backstretch at Belmont and Aqueduct, Thanksgiving is just another day in the year-round cycle of caring for racehorses.

"We've been fortunate here at BST for 35 years and we believe in giving back to the community," said Managing Partner Joe Torani, who will be serving meals along with his daughter, Amy, and BST's Eric Kreuter, Mike Murray, and Bill Frietag. "We are happy to again provide the financial support for this event."

Under the supervision of Dennis Zoitos, who runs the concessions on the backstretch for The New York Racing Association (NYRA), the holiday meals will be served in the cafeterias of both racetracks from 10 a.m. (EST) until 2 p.m. on November 24, which is a non-racing day in New York.

In addition to turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce and gravy, the workers will also enjoy salad, a selection of vegetables, dinner rolls, dessert and beverages. For the non-traditional minded, Zoitos will also be offering another option.

"We'll be serving about 150 people at Aqueduct, and about 350 at Belmont," Zoitos said. "And we have lasagna for anyone who doesn't want turkey."

BST, which also has branch offices in Manhattan and Manhasset, originally stepped in to underwrite the holiday dinner after funding for the 2007 event fell through.

"We've been doing it every year since, and we plan on doing it for the foreseeable future," Torani said. "This is the first year I will be able to attend, and I am looking forward to enjoying it and helping out."

BST, headquartered in Albany, is one of the largest accounting and consulting firms in the Empire State. It provides specialized services, tailored solutions, dedicated focus, and professional experience and expertise in a variety of areas.

B.E.S.T. provides a full range of health and human services to support workers in the barn areas of NYRA's three racetracks: Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. Their programs include on-site primary care health clinics, health benefits and counseling services.

Churchill Downs honors Borel

Borel's bobblehead will feature the now familiar silks of Mine That Bird (EquiSport Photos) Popular Churchill Downs-based jockey Calvin Borel, who swept this year's Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1) aboard RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) and MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone), respectively, will be honored at Churchill Downs this weekend with a bobblehead giveaway, autograph session, roast and his very own drink special. The first 7,500 fans through admission gates on Saturday will receive a free Calvin Borel bobblehead. The great majority of the Borel bobbleheads will showcase the 43-year-old Cajun in the familiar silks of Derby winner Mine That Bird. However, as a special treat, there will be 75 autographed, limited-edition Borel bobbleheads mixed in the allotment that showcase the silks of leading Horse of the Year candidate Rachel Alexandra. Only 500 Borel bobbleheads with Rachel Alexandra's silks were made and the remaining 425 will be sold near the PEB mural in the ITW area on the second floor of the clubhouse for $49.95 by Leonard Lusky of Commemorative Derby Promotions. A portion of the proceeds will benefit the Permanently Disabled Jockey Fund. On Sunday, Borel will participate in a free autograph session with fans so they can get their bobbleheads and other memorabilia signed (time to be announced Friday to best accommodate Borel's Sunday riding commitments).

Borel will also be Jill Byrne's special guest during Saturday's "Get in the Game" seminar in the paddock area at 11:50 a.m. (EST).

Additionally, a new thirst-quenching drink called the "Borel Breezer" -- a mix of Woodford Reserve, cranberry juice and a splash of lemon-line served on ice in a commemorative racing-themed mint julep glass -- has been specially created for the weekend. Priced at $7, it will be sold throughout the facility for only $4 immediately after Borel wins a race.

A roast in honor of Borel, complete with praise, outlandish stories and comedic insults from special guests, will take place after the races on Sunday in the Triple Crown Room. Tickets for the much-anticipated plated dinner are $100 and proceeds will benefit the Kentucky Equine Humane Center. A cocktail reception will begin at 5:30 p.m. with the dinner and ceremonies set to commence at 6:30 p.m. To make reservations to the roast, call Kelly Danner at 502-638-3825.

Borel, a native of St. Martin Parish, La. who rode his first professional winner at age 16 on January 14, 1983, at Delta Downs, began the week with 4,678 career victories, including 73 graded stakes wins, from 31,576 career mounts. His mounts had earned more than $105.7 million.

His career highlights include:

*		Regular rider for 2009 Horse of the Year candidate Rachel Alexandra, including victories in the 2008 Golden Rod (G2) at age two and eight 2009 triumphs at age three including the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Fantasy (G2), Kentucky Oaks, Preakness S. (G1) against three-year-old males, Mother Goose (G1), Haskell Invitational (G1) against three-year-old males and Woodward (G1) against older colts and geldings.
*		Two wins in the Kentucky Derby: Street Sense (2007) and Mine That Bird (2009).
*		Two wins in the Apple Blossom (G1): Halo America (1997) and Gourmet Girl (2001).
*		Additional Grade 1 victories include the 1991 Super Derby (Free Spirit's Joy), 2000 Oaklawn H. (K One King), 2006 Stephen Foster H. (Seek Gold), 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Street Sense), 2007 Sword Dancer (Grand Couturier [GB]), 2007 Alabama (Lady Joanne), 2007 Travers (Street Sense).
*		He has lit up the tote board in three major races: Rockamundo (108-1) in the 1993 Arkansas Derby (G2), Seek Gold (92-1) in the 2006 Stephen Foster and Mine That Bird (50-1) in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Born Nov. 7, 1966, Borel -- nicknamed "Bo-Rail" for his penchant of hugging the inside rail en route to numerous victories -- is second to legendary Hall of Fame jockey Pat Day in career wins at Churchill Downs with 958 trips to the winner's circle, and ranks sixth in local stakes wins with 45. He has cracked the top five of the Churchill Downs jockey standings for 23 of the last 28 meetings since the fall of 1995, including titles during the 1999 and 2006 fall meets. He has been a runner-up on eight occasions.

Following his victories in this spring's Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby, Borel had celebrity-like status with appearances on The Today Show, The Tonight Show with Jay Leno and Late Night with David Letterman to name a few. He and Mine That Bird also graced the cover of Sports Illustrated. Two years earlier, he was invited to the White House for a white-tie dinner honoring Queen Elizabeth immediately after she witnessed Street Sense's 2007 Kentucky Derby triumph.

Borel, the younger brother of Churchill Downs-based trainer Cecil Borel, began riding match races at his home state at age eight before launching his professional career. Known for his tireless work ethic and horsemanship, he currently rides the Kentucky-Arkansas-Louisiana circuit with summer stints at Saratoga. His fiancée is Lisa Funk and his longtime agent is Jerry Hissam.

Championship up for grabs in Colonial Cup

The mid-season exit of two-time champion Good Night Shirt (Concern) due to injury left a huge void in the steeplechase division that has not entirely been filled. That might change pending the results of Saturday's $100,000 Colonial Cup (NSA-G1), the final major jump race of the season, which will be contested over the Springdale course in Camden, South Carolina.

Ten geldings and a mare will answer the call to post for the 2 3/4-mile event over National Fences. All who have won top-level events in Good Night Shirt's absence have been entered, though most have not enjoyed consistent form this season.

The one with perhaps the fewest faults is YOUR SUM MAN (Ire) (Pistolet Bleu [Ire]), the unheralded seven-year-old who coasted home by 3 3/4 lengths in the October 17 Grand National (NSA-G1) in his North American debut in what could be labeled a massive upset. The Tom Voss charge was nearly two years removed from his last win in a novice hurdle at Punchestown, Ireland, and made what is left of the American jumping division look mediocre with a convincing win at Far Hills.

PIERROT LUNAIRE (War Chant), who handed Good Night Shirt a three-length defeat in the Iroquois (NSA-G1) in May, showed little in the Grand National when beaten more than 23 lengths into fifth. The five-year-old did encounter trouble that day when clipping heels with a rival, and could bounce back with a more representative effort here.

RED LETTER DAY (Red Ransom), who led from flag-to-finish in the Lonesome Glory (NSA-G1) two back, could not replicate that feat in the Grand National. A tiring fourth that day, he should nonetheless show speed from the start of the Colonial Cup. SPY IN THE SKY (Thunder Gulch), who romped by more than 10 lengths in the New York Turf Writers Cup (NSA-G1), was an okay fourth in the Lonesome Glory and most recently passed his first-level allowance condition on the flat at Aqueduct.

Others of note are the veteran MIXED UP (Carnivalay), who finished far back in two starts since taking the A.P. Smithwick Memorial (NSA-G1); THREE CARART (Storm Broker), runner-up to Good Night Shirt in the 2007 Colonial Cup; and SWEET SHANI (NZ) (Kashani), the multiple Grade 1-placed mare who appears to be rounding into better form.

Post time for the Colonial Cup is approximately 3 p.m. (EST).

Sea the Stars named Cartier Horse of the Year

The exceptional SEA THE STARS was named Cartier Horse of the Year and Cartier champion three-year-old colt at the 2009 Cartier Racing Awards, which were presented at Claridge's Hotel in Mayfair, London, England, before an invited audience of 200 on the Tuesday night.

Sea the Stars swept all before him as he won each of his six races in 2009, all in Group 1 company. The first two of those victories were in classic races and he thus became the first horse in 20 years to win both the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) at Newmarket and the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) at Epsom Downs. After clinching the Derby, Sea the Stars dropped down to 10 furlongs for his next three starts and emphasized his dominance against the best in Europe with triumphs in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) at Sandown, the Juddmonte International (Eng-G1) at York and the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) at Leopardstown.

A homebred out of the Tsui family's outstanding mare Urban Sea (Miswaki), Sea the Stars then emulated his dam with a victory in Europe's top middle-distance race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) over 12 furlongs at Longchamp, France, in October.

No horse before him had added Arc success to wins in the Two Thousand Guineas and Derby.

In the Cartier Horse of the Year category, Sea the Stars prevailed from the sensational two-time Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) heroine GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa), dual Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) victor Conduit (Ire) (Dalakhani), Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) winner Mastercraftsman (Ire) and the One Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) heroine Ghanaati. Between them, the five nominees gained 16 Group 1 races in 2009.

Sea the Stars also took the honors in the three-year-old colt category from crack miler Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), Mastercraftsman, runaway Irish Derby (Ire-G1) winner Fame and Glory (Montjeu [Ire]) and Prix du Jockey Club (Fr-G1) hero Le Havre.

Goldikova topped a very strong division to clinch the Cartier champion older horse award. With four Group 1 wins on the board this year, including that scintillating second Breeders' Cup Mile triumph, the Freddie Head-trained filly saw off King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) winner Conduit, as well as FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit), Dar Re Mi (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) and impressive Prince Of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) victor Vision d'Etat (Chichicastenango).

The Cartier two-year-old colt category was particularly competitive but it was the unbeaten Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1) winner ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (Montjeu [Ire]) who took the 2009 award. The Aidan O'Brien-trained colt pipped Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Fr-G1) scorer Siyouni (Pivotal), the unbeaten pair of  Middle Park S. (Eng-G1) hero Awzaan  (Alhaarth) and Prix Morny (Fr-G1) winner Arcano (Oasis Dream [GB]), as well as Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2) victor Pounced (Rahy).

SPECIAL DUTY (Hennessy) stormed to success in the Cheveley Park S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket in October and she has been crowned the Cartier champion two-year-old filly for 2009. The Criquette Head-Maarek-trained youngster won twice from four starts and defeated colts when winning the Prix Robert Papin (Fr-G2). Also nominated were Termagant (Powerscourt [GB]), winner of the Moyglare Stud S. (Ire-G1), Rosanara (Sinndar), Hibaayeb (Singspiel [Ire]) and Lady of the Desert (Rahy).

SARISKA (Pivotal) won the Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) at Epsom and cruised to a spectacular victory in the Irish Oaks (Ire-G1) at the Curragh. In a close-run contest, the Michael Bell-trained Pivotal filly took the 2009 Cartier champion three-year-old filly award from Ghanaati, and the Henry Cecil-trained Midday (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]), who added the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) to a Nassau S. (Eng-G1) triumph. Runaway Prix de Diane (Fr-G1) winner Stacelita (Monsun) and Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (Fr-G1) heroine Elusive Wave (Elusive City) were also nominated.

YEATS (Ire) ensured his place among the greats with a record fourth victory in the Gold Cup (Eng-G1) at Ascot. The eight-year-old, who aroused great emotion when winning the Royal Ascot feature, was named the Cartier champion stayer for 2009, thus becoming the first horse to win a Cartier Award four times. In a tough division, he headed Alandi (Galileo [Ire]), who defeated Yeats in both the Irish St Leger (Ire-G1) and Prix du Cadran (Fr-G1). Also in the running for recognition were the top-class Ask (GB) (Sadler's Wells), Schiaparelli (Monsun) and Askar Tau (Montjeu [Ire]).

Fleeting Spirit's victory in the July Cup (Eng-G1) at Newmarket, where she defeated a whole host of top-class sprinters from far and wide, sees her receive the 2009 Cartier champion sprinter award. Prix de l'Abbaye (Fr-G1) winner Total Gallery (Namid) was also in contention, as was the popular Borderlescott (Compton Place) who secured a second successive win in the Nunthorpe S. (Eng-G1) at York in August. Group 1 winners Art Connoisseur (Lucky Story) and King's Apostle (King's Best) were also nominated.

John Oxx, the trainer of Sea the Stars, has been voted the 2009 Cartier/Daily Telegraph Award of Merit winner. The Cartier/Daily Telegraph Award of Merit is for the person or persons who, in the opinion of the special 18-strong Cartier Jury, has/have done most for European racing and/or breeding either over their lifetime or within the past 12 months.

The list of past winners of the Cartier/Daily Telegraph Award of Merit is as follows: HM The Queen, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Niarchos Family, Peter Willett, Henry Cecil, David & Patricia Thompson, Lord Oaksey, Prince Khalid Abdulla, John Magnier, His Highness The Aga Khan, Peter Walwyn, the Head Family, Sir Peter O'Sullevan, Frankie Dettori, John Dunlop, the Marquess of Hartington, Francois Boutin, Lester Piggott and Henri Chalhoub.

The Cartier Award winners were determined by points earned in Pattern races combined with the opinions of a panel of racing journalists headed by Brough Scott plus votes from readers of the Racing Post and The Daily Telegraph.

Churchill announces six nighttime cards for 2010

Following the overwhelming popularity of a three-date market test this spring, Churchill Downs, the home of the Kentucky Derby (G1), will stage six special "Downs After Dark" nighttime racing programs under the lights in 2010.

The announcement was made Tuesday during a news conference at the historic Louisville, Kentucky, racetrack that also revealed Musco Lighting as the winning contract bidder to install permanent track lighting at Churchill Downs and a new online platform for patrons to purchase tickets to the track.

Churchill Downs will host its unique Downs After Dark programs -- a blend of an upscale night on the town with the excitement of Thoroughbred racing -- on the final four Fridays of the 42-day spring meet and two evening cards during the 20-day fall meet, including opening night which doubles as Halloween.

Pending final approval from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, the nighttime dates are June 11, 18 and 25 and July 2, with a first post of 6 p.m. (EDT); October 31 with a first post of 4:30 p.m., and November 19 with a post of 4:30 p.m. (EST). All dates except October 31, which is a Sunday, are on Friday.

Churchill Downs hosted night racing events on June 19, June 26 and July 2. The average attendance was 29,705 and the three-night total was 89,115. A modern day track record of 33,481 attended the finale on July 2 -- the largest crowd for a Churchill Downs racing program other than a Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks (G1) or Breeders' Cup. It topped the old mark of 28,396 for a pre-simulcast wagering era million-dollar Pick 6 carryover on November 14, 1987.

The event's popularity helped signal the go-ahead on a multi-million dollar project to install permanent track lighting at the home of the Kentucky Derby.

"We want to keep Downs After Dark a special and unique experience for our fans," Churchill Downs President Kevin Flanery said. "For three nights this past spring, Churchill Downs was transformed into Louisville's ultimate nighttime hot spot. The track was the place to be and offered the biggest party in town. Our distinctive events under the lights helped redefine the on-track racing experience and generated a tremendous buzz in the community and within the horse racing industry. It could not have been accomplished without the teamwork and support of our horsemen's groups, neighborhood associations and employees and the fantastic support and participation we received from the greater Louisville community. Our goal for the coming year is to deliver that same level of excitement to core customers, casual patrons and entertainment seekers within these six special Downs After Dark events in 2010."

Reserved ticket packages to 2010 Downs After Dark events are available for purchase online at tickets.churchilldowns.com -- Churchill Downs' new and convenient online box office platform.

Cover charge (general admission) to all Downs After Dark events will be $10. A special discounted general admission pass for entrance on all six nights is available for $45 (a $15 savings). Customers also have the opportunity to purchase a special $20 package that includes general admission, a box seat in the third-floor clubhouse and an official program. Additionally, Downs After Dark "Date Night" dinner and dancing packages are available for $59.90 and include a reserved seat in Millionaires Row, an official program and buffet dinner.

Hall of Fame trainer Frankel dies at 68

Bobby Frankel trained 10 champions (Debra Kral/Horsephotos.com) Hall of Fame horseman Bobby Frankel, a five-time Eclipse Award winner whose exceptional list of pupils included 10 champions and Belmont S. (G1) winner Empire Maker, died at his home in Pacific Palisades, California, early Monday morning. The Brooklyn native, 68, succumbed to complications from lymphoma. He had not made any public appearances for the past six months as he battled his illness. By his own admission a successful horseplayer after being introduced to the sport in the early 1960s, Frankel embarked on a training career in the middle of that decade and scored his first significant victory in the 1970 Suburban H. with Barometer, a horse he had claimed for $15,000. He built his early career on claiming runners, winning the first of his 30 training titles at Saratoga in 1970. He relocated to Southern California in 1972, where he made an immediate impact by winning the Hollywood Park training title. As the years passed Frankel's barn transitioned from one consisting of bread-and-butter horses to stakes winners and champions, aided by an infusion of stock from high-profile owners such as Edmund Gann, Jerry Moss, Bert and Diana Firestone, and Stavros Niarchos. More recently, Frankel has been best known for training the American contingent of Prince Khalid Abdullah's Juddmonte Farms as well as for the multiple Eclipse Award-winning Stronach Stables. Except for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1), Frankel scored at least one victory in virtually every other significant race in the United States. He was most prolific in grass stakes, winning the Matriarch S. (G1) and Gamely S. (G1) eight times each, the Eddie Read S. (G1) seven times and the Charles Whittingham Memorial (G1) six times. Among main track events, he registered six wins in the Pacific Classic (G1) and four wins apiece in the Woodward S. (G1) and Metropolitan H. (G1). He won six Breeders' Cup events, most recently in the 2008 Filly & Mare Sprint with Ventura (Chester House).

Arguably his best runner was 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who cemented year-end honors with an electrifying score in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Lone Star Park over a deeply talented field. Frankel also conditioned 1993 champion older male Bertrando; 2005 champion turf male Leroidesanimaux (Brz); 2007 champion older female Ginger Punch; the champion turf mares Possibly Perfect, Wandesta (GB), Ryafan and Intercontinental (GB); and the champion sprinters Squirtle Squirt and Aldebaran.

Frankel's best opportunity to win the Kentucky Derby was in 2003, when the Juddmonte homebred Empire Maker started favorite at Churchill Downs following scores in the Florida Derby  (G1) and Wood Memorial S. (G1), but the regally-bred son of Unbridled battled foot issues throughout Derby week and wound up second to Funny Cide. After skipping the Preakness, Empire Maker came back to deny his gelded rival Triple Crown glory in the Belmont S. Despite winning two of three matchups against Funny Cide that season, that rival was named champion three-year-old male. Frankel also trained 2000 Derby runner-up Aptitude.

A sampling of other major runners conditioned by Frankel include Al Mamoon, Beat Hollow (GB), Champs Elysees (GB), Chester House, Denon, Exbourne, Flute, Garthorn, Honest Lady, Keeper Hill, Lido Palace (Chi), Marquetry, Megahertz (GB), Milwaukee Brew, Pay the Butler, Peace Rules, Precious Kitten, Sightseek, Skimming, Starine (Fr), Tates Creek, Theatrical (Ire), Tinners Way, Vineyard Haven and You.

Frankel also trained two current stars of the breeding shed, Broodmare of the Year Toussaud and Medaglia d'Oro, the sire of Rachel Alexandra.

Frankel won the Eclipse Award as leading trainer in 1993 and from 2000 through 2003, inclusive. He won a world-record 25 Grade 1 races in 2003 and won a collective 29 training titles at the five major Southern California meetings.

Over his career, Frankel won 3,654 races from 17,657 starters with earnings of $227,947,775. He ranks second only to D. Wayne Lukas on the all-time money list.

"Bobby Frankel was one of the greatest trainers in Thoroughbred racing history," National Thoroughbred Racing Association President and CEO Alex Waldrop said. "His outstanding horsemanship, coupled with a keen insight into the game, made him a force in the sport for the last 40 years. His immense talent, and his abiding love for his horses, will be sorely missed."

A 1995 Hall of Fame inductee, Frankel, who was twice divorced, is survived by his daughter Bethenny, a reality television celebrity on the show "Real Housewives of New York." A memorial service will be held at Hillside Memorial Park in Los Angeles on Tuesday at 3 p.m. (PST).

BOBBY FRANKEL REMEMBERED

    NOVEMBER 16, 2009

"We at Juddmonte today mourn the loss of our friend and great trainer, Bobby Frankel. The term great may be used loosely in modern society, but his record and accomplishments are humbling to even the most highly esteemed leaders of our sport. To use a racetrack phrase, Bobby went to the front and was never headed. He could never, ever have been termed a follower, but good people followed him and we were privileged to be in in their midst. We will retain great memories of him, of great horses he trained for us and of great races he won for us.

"And we will always remember him for what he was: a great trainer."

—Juddmonte Farms release

"Bobby was a great guy. He did a lot of things behind the scenes that people don't know. He was very generous, very good to his help. He was great to ride for. He never told you how to ride. He had confidence in you. When he gave you a leg up, he felt you should know your business.

He was a great handicapper. He knew where to put his horses. He wasn't a good people person when he was plying his trade. If you didn't know him, he could be a jerk. You had to know him off the track. He was very gracious, but he wouldn't let everybody know that. On the track he was tough. He wanted to achieve his goals."

—Hall of Fame jockey Eddie Delahoussaye

"He proved you don't have to grow up on a farm or be somebody's kid to make it. Trainers come and go, but here's a guy who won at the highest level decade after decade. And as a horseman. a trainer, and a human being, he was so caring about horses, and his help. There's never going to be another Bobby Frankel."

—trainer Chad Brown, who worked for Frankel for two years in California

"This man was unbelievable, He had a heart as big as they get. A good man. Very good to his help. No one left. We were very good friends. He changed the game when he came (to Southern California) from New York. He'd claim a horse for $20,000 and run him for $8,000. He had everyone confused. They didn't know what he was doing."

—trainer Julio Canani, who introduced Frankel at his Hall of Fame induction in 1995

"This is very bad news for racing. He is one of the greatest. I put him up there with Charlie Whittingham. He showed it with claimers and stakes horses. I appreciate everything he did for me. He put me on special horses. We won a lot of races together."

—Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay Jr., who guided the Frankel-trained Aptitude to victory in the 2001 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1)

"He was a tremendous horseman, his horses always looked well, and he was a great caretaker. In some ways, he developed the trend of giving horses more time between races. He was very passionate about horses and passionate about racing."

—trainer Todd Pletcher

"He was an excellent horseman with an impeccable record. He was great to his horses and great to his help. He went from the bottom rung of racing all the way to the top, which is a mark not only of him as a horseman, but as a person. He will be sadly missed."

—Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey

"He was a great horseman and was unique in his training. He trained his horses one morning at a time and he wasn't afraid to change things midstream, the same morning even, and it worked. His horses looked wonderful on the racetrack. They were nice horses to start, of course, but they sure always looked the part. I always kept an eye on what he did."

—trainer Al Stall Jr., who was stabled near Frankel at Saratoga

"He was really sharp and sometimes he'd let you believe that he wasn't paying attention, but he always knew what you were doing. He was generous with people  that needed help. He could be gruff, but he had a soft side, too."

—Pam Fitzgerald, an assistant to Stall, who worked for Frankel in the mid-1990s

"Bobby was a great horseman and a fierce competitor. His passion for Thoroughbred racing will be sorely missed."

—P.J. Campo, Vice President and Director of Racing for the New York Racing Association (NYRA)

"Bobby Frankel was a winner at every level he competed, including in the Breeders' Cup, where his six career wins are part of his wonderful legacy as one of the true greats of our game. We extend our deepest sympathies to Bobby's family and his many friends."

—Greg Avioli, Breeders' Cup President and CEO

COMMENTARY

NOVEMBER 17, 2009

A personal tribute to Bobby Frankel

by The Wizard

On Monday morning, the racing world lost its brightest star in trainer Bobby Frankel. It would take many pages to list all his accomplishments.

I had the fortune to have several great conversations with him at Saratoga. Frankel was a family friend, who frequented my grandfather's restaurant in New York City when he trained horses there in the 70s and 80s before heading west.

Frankel was a man of very few words, especially with the press, because it was never about him. It was all about the horses and the people who cared for them.

Several times I would plead with him to take my binoculars and watch one of his Grade 1 stakes races from the stands. Frankel never did. He had to watch every race of his on a TV monitor in the racing secretaries' office.

As a kid growing up in the city, I was able to support myself, including paying for college, betting on Frankel and Buddy Jacobson claimers at Aqueduct.

Thirty plus years later, you would never have imagined that Frankel would have gone on to win 3,654 races from 17,657 starters and his horses earned $227,947,775, second all-time on the money list to D. Wayne Lukas.

I am hoping that every racetrack in the country pays tribute this week to one of the greatest horseman and human beings the racing world has ever known.

Gulfstream moves date of Florida Derby

Quality Road set a track record in the 2009 Florida Derby (Adam Coglianese Photo) Gulfstream Park has announced adjustments to their 2010 stakes schedule and the creation of a new stakes day for sprinters. Affected by the changes are the dates of the Florida Derby (G1) and Fountain of Youth S. (G2), and the layering of stakes races on Saturdays, especially the first Saturday of the meeting, when the five stakes carded compose the inaugural Gulfstream Sprint Showcase. Opening day for Gulfstream Park's 79-day meeting is January 3. "The name of the game is handle," Gulfstream Park's Racing Operations Manager Bernie Hettel said. "We believe that the adjustments are for the good of the fans as well as good for the horsemen, and ultimately good for the industry." The Florida Derby will be run March 20, six weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby (G1). Earlier, Fair Grounds had announced the Louisiana Derby (G2) would be run one week later than usual in 2010. The new date, March 27, was the original date for the Florida Derby.

"Gulfstream Park's well-diversified racing program is universally well known, but the accent, for the owners, trainers and jockeys as well as the racing public, has always been on the development of three-year-olds as they prepare for the Triple Crown," Gulfstream Park President and General Manager Ken Dunn said. "Fixing the date of the Florida Derby six weeks ahead of the Kentucky Derby puts the Florida Derby front and center in the consciousness of the American racing public."

The Fountain of Youth has also been moved, from February 27 to February 20. Both the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth will be run at 1 1/8 miles.

Another major move in the realignment was turning the first Saturday of the meet, January 9, into a blockbuster day of sprint stakes composed of the Spectacular Bid for three-year-olds, the Mr. Prospector (G3) for older horses, the Old Hat (G3) for three-year-old fillies, the Sugar Swirl (formerly the First Lady) (G3) for older fillies and mares, and a new stakes named the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint.

The first four named above carry a $100,000 purse and will be run at six furlongs; the Turf Sprint will be valued at $75,000 and will be run at five furlongs.

Red Ransom dies in Australia

Internationally renowned sire RED RANSOM (Roberto) has been euthanized in Australia, according to a Vinery release posted on racingandsports.com.au. The 22-year-old stallion had been experiencing complications in the wake of abdominal surgery on Saturday.

Red Ransom flashed real talent in his brief racing career, which was unfortunately curtailed by injury. A homebred campaigned by Paul Mellon, he won his debut impressively at Saratoga as a juvenile, blazing five furlongs in a track-record :56 4/5. The Mack Miller trainee prevailed in an allowance next time out at Belmont Park, and was regarded as an exciting candidate for the 1990 classics. In his three-year-old bow, Red Ransom finished second in a Gulfstream Park allowance, but he was never to race again.

While Red Ransom did not get the chance to fulfill his potential on the racetrack, he transmitted his raw ability to his progeny and built a glittering career at stud over the years. In his very first crop, he sired classy English juvenile Sri Pekan, who put him right on the map by winning the Richmond S. (Eng-G2), Champagne S. (Eng-G2) and Coventry S. (Eng-G3) in 1994. Red Ransom got off the mark quickly stateside as well, with his flagship performer Bail Out Becky taking the 1995 Del Mar Oaks Invitational (G1).

Since those promising beginnings, Red Ransom has sired such stand-outs as Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) hero Electrocutionist, a highweight in both Italy and the United Arab Emirates; American champion turf female Perfect Sting, winner of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1); English highweight miler Intikhab; German highweight Ransom o' War; Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) queen Casual Look; English Group 1 scorer Red Clubs; Italian Group 1 victor Ekraar; and Australian Group 1 winners Charge Forward, Red Dazzler, Duporth, Onemorenomore, Typhoon Tracy and All American. Typhoon Tracy just won her second Group title in the October 31 Empire Rose S. (Aus-G1), while All American joined the club in the November 7 Cantala/Emirates S. (Aus-G1).

Red Ransom is also making an impact as a broodmare sire, with his daughters producing the likes of Canadian champion older male Marchfield (A.P. Indy), Irish highweight U S Ranger (Danzig), Italian highweight Fashion Statement (Rainbow Quest), Frizette S. (G1) heroine Devil May Care (Malibu Moon) and U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) and Super Derby (G2) hero Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor).

Out of the winning Damascus mare Arabia, Red Ransom hailed from the family of Mellon's multiple Grade 1 handicap star Winter's Tale (Arts and Letters).

Red Ransom was standing at Vinery Stud in New South Wales, Australia, for a fee of A$66,000.

"Red Ransom was a foundation sire for Vinery and has contributed significantly in the stud's success over the last 11 years," the farm's statement said. "A horse of great character, he will be sadly missed by the partners and staff of Vinery."

Hollywood Park honors Zenyatta

Zenyatta and her connections will be honored at Hollywood Park (Benoit Photos) Undefeated champion ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]), who finished her career with a perfect 14-for-14 record by beating males with her dramatic late charge in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), will be saluted by Hollywood Park on November 29, the final day of the 18th Turf Festival. Zenyatta, stabled at Hollywood Park throughout her illustrious career, will parade between races on the program which will feature the 68th running of the Hollywood Derby (G1) and the Miesque S. (G3). Patrons attending the celebration of Zenyatta will receive a DVD -- "ZENYATTA, A Living Legend" -- which will include interviews and each of her 14 starts, culminating with the sensational victory over a world-class field in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park. In addition, the Breeders' Cup "Girl Power" poster with the "Go Zenyatta" exclamation will be reprinted with her lifetime past performances on the back. Both giveaways will be available to patrons while supplies last. Owners Jerry and Ann Moss will be on hand for the event, accompanied by the Zenyatta team -- Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, trainer John Shirreffs, groom Mario Espinoza, hot walker Carmen Zamora, exercise rider Steve Willard and stable manager Dottie Ingordo-Shirreffs.

Post time on November 29 will be the customary 12:30 p.m. (PST).

Diamondrella transferred to Stevens, headed for Matriarch

Diamondrella's last win came in the First Lady (EquiSport Photos) Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, who never won the prestigious Matriarch S. (G1) as a rider, will try to win the test as a trainer with DIAMONDRELLA (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) on November 28 at Hollywood Park. The Grade 1-winning five-year-old was an unexpected addition last week to the Santa Anita barn of Stevens, who began training in May. "I got a surprise call early Thursday morning," Stevens said Sunday from Santa Anita. "Michael (Iavarone, head of owner IEAH Stables) informed me that she was coming. It was a big confidence booster." Diamondrella was shipped to Kentucky for the Fasig-Tipton Sale after finishing 11th in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint at Santa Anita on November 7, but was bought back by IEAH for $1.1 million and flown back to California by way of Indianapolis early Friday morning. The bay mare, based in New York most of the year, enjoyed a banner campaign under previous trainer Angel Penna Jr., winning three of five starts, including two Grade 1 races --the Just a Game S. at Belmont and the First Lady S. at Keeneland. Both victories were at one mile on turf, the same distance as the Matriarch. Career-wise, the English-bred has won eight of 18 starts and earned $784,576.

"The Matriarch is the target," said Stevens, who plans to supplement the mare for $6,000. "She showed up in great shape. Angel did a great job with her. I just walked her this morning."

The Matriarch was one of the few major stakes in Southern California that eluded Stevens as a jockey. He finished second twice behind champion Flawlessly, with Fire the Groom in 1991 and Toussaud in 1993.

Diamondrella's toughest competition is expected from multiple Grade 1 winner VENTURA (Chester House), who captured the Woodbine Mile (Can-G1) over the boys and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) in her last two. The Bobby Frankel-trained five-year-old will be ridden by Garrett Gomez. Other probable starters include last-out Las Palmas H. (G2) queen TUSCAN EVENING (Ire) (Oasis Dream [GB]), Grade 1 heroine RUTHERIENNE (Pulpit) and Harold C. Ramser Sr. H. (G3) victress APRIL PRIDE (GB) (Falbrav [Ire]).

Queen Spumante sparkles in 77-1 upset of QEII

Queen Spumante was earning her first graded victory (Copyright of the Japan Racing Association [JRA]) Once more proving the old adage that pace makes the race, Green Farm's QUEEN SPUMANTE (Jungle Pocket) benefited from a heady front-running ride from 23-year-old Hiroyasu Tanaka to spring a 77-1 stunner in Sunday's $2,141,000 Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup (Jpn-G1). The French-based Shalanaya (Lomitas [GB]) wound up fourth, continuing the woes of internationals in the Kyoto showpiece. Queen Spumante and 91-1 longshot T M Precure (Paradise Creek) hooked up early, and after a solid first quarter, they managed to slow down and stride along at a steady tempo. Despite the moderate pace, the top two opened up a double-digit lead on the rest of the field, and they were gone beyond recall by the time they reached the Kyoto stretch. Queen Spumante pulled away from T M Precure by 1 1/2 lengths and completed the about 1 3/8 miles in 2:13 3/5 on the firm turf to earn her first graded victory.

Tanaka, only in his fourth year as a jockey, wept with joy at his first Grade 1 coup. Trainer Shigeyuki Kojima was engineering a Grade 1 upset at Kyoto for the second straight year. Last fall, he saddled Black Emblem (War Emblem) to a surprising 28-1 score in the Shuka Sho (Jpn-G1).

T M Precure, who had lost her way since reigning as Japan's champion two-year-old filly of 2005, barely salvaged second by a neck from the hard-charging 8-5 favorite, Buena Vista (Special Week). Reserved near the tail of the 18-horse field in the opening stages, Buena Vista improved her position approaching the final turn and was the only horse to burst clear of the pack. The dual classic heroine rattled home through the stretch and devoured the deficit with every stride, but the wire came too soon for her.

Another 3 1/2 lengths back came Shalanaya in fourth, followed by Meisho Beluga (French Deputy), Broad Street (Agnes Tachyon), defending champion Little Amapola (Agnes Tachyon), Wedding Fujiko (Fuji Kiseki), Kawakami Princess (King Halo), Nishino Blue Moon (Tanino Gimlet), Celebrita (Black Hawk), Mood Indigo (Dance in the Dark), Germinal (Agnes Tachyon), Mikrokosmos (Neo Universe), Sanrei Jasper (Misuzu Chardon), Bravo Daisy (Kurofune), Rain Dance (Dance in the Dark) and Piena Venus (Fuji Kiseki).

Shalanaya's trainer, Mikel Delzangles, realized that the race scenario worked against his lightly-raced pupil.

"She ran a good race, but it was also a tricky race -- the two horses ran very far (in front)," Delzangles said. "She extended very well but it was too late. She handled the track well, although she is not used to run on a track with such a short length (stretch), which might have been a little problem for her, but not too bad.

"(Jockey) Christophe Lemaire said that he was very happy by the way she finished the race, but he said that they went a bit too slow for her -- too slow for the pack. It's a pity that she didn't follow the two horses."

The five-year-old Queen Spumante more than doubled her bankroll to roughly $1.92 million from her 21-6-1-4 line. Well beaten in higher company as a sophomore, including a 12th-place finish in the 2007 Shuka Sho, the chestnut did not make another stakes attempt until this August, when she posted a wire-to-wire victory over males in the Minami Hokkaido S. at Sapporo. Queen Spumante stepped up in class for the Kyoto Daishoten (Jpn-G2) last time out, but faded to ninth behind the classy Oken Bruce Lee (Jungle Pocket).

Bred by Shadai Farm in Japan, Queen Spumante is out of the winning Sembon Zakura (Sakura Yutaka O). She comes from the family of multiple Grade 1 heroine Mrs. Warren (Hail to Reason), who captured the 1976 Matron S. (G1), Spinaway S. (G1) and Schuylerville S. (G2), and placed in such major events as the Acorn S. (G1), Mother Goose S. (G1), Frizette S. (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G2).

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

Only six sophomores will line up in Saturday's $100,000 Discovery H. (G3) at Aqueduct, and the Shug McGaughey-trained GONE ASTRAY (Dixie Union) is the one to beat in the nine-furlong affair. The dark bay colt has really come to life since switching to two-turn races, racking up dominating victories in the Ohio Derby (G2) and Pennsylvania Derby (G2) in his last two. He's also been earning century-topping BRIS numbers of late, garnering a 106 Speed figure for his Penn Derby win and a 116 Late Pace rating for a close head second in the Coronado's Quest S. Gone Astray has winning experience over the track, and appears more than capable of adding this one to his resume. Eddie Castro retains the mount.

BIRDRUN (Birdstone) might offer the best chance for some value in this race. The Bill Mott charge broke his maiden by 10 1/2 lengths against claiming rivals on a  sloppy track at Saratoga, and has since run second twice before breaking through his first-level allowance condition on October 21. That front-running win netted the chestnut colt a 102 Speed rating and should have set him up perfectly for his stakes bow in this spot. Alan Garcia will be taking over riding duties on Birdrun, and the 5-1 morning-line shot could take this field from gate-to-wire.

BAD ACTION (Brahms) has won or placed second in eight of his last nine races. That coupled with his 8-1 morning-line price makes us believe the Gary Contessa charge might help boost the exotics. The dark bay gelding has spent a good portion of the year racing on turf, but he switched over to Meadowlands' dirt to capture the Pegasus S. (G3) by a half-length last out. Though his numbers aren't quite as impressive as our top two, Bad Action has proven his ability against this caliber and should come running late under David Cohen.

HAYNESFIELD (Speightstown) owns five wins from eight career starts, but most of those came on Aqueduct's inner dirt earlier this season. The Steve Asmussen-conditioned colt has tailed off quite a bit since his 6 1/4-length victory in the Whirlaway S. on February 7, finishing a well-beaten eighth in the Gotham S. (G3) next out before being put on the shelf. He returned on October 2 to just miss in the Sir Keys S. by a head, and visited the winner's circle when capturing his last one, the Empire Classic S. at Belmont Park. Though the chestnut seems to be on the improve, we'll let him beat us for the win and just tab in the bottom of the gimmicks. Ramon Dominguez has the call.

PRECURSOR (A.P. Indy) posted a gate-to-wire score in the Proud Truth S. last out, repulsing a late bid from Bad Action. However, that win, along with his two other career victories, came on sloppy, sealed tracks. With sunny conditions forecast for Saturday, a fast surface seems probable, and we don't think Precursor will be able to duplicate his winning effort. REDDING COLLIERY (Mineshaft) seems to prefer less ground than what this race offers. We can't recommend.

TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS:		1st-GONE ASTRAY
		2nd-BIRDRUN
		3rd-BAD ACTION

Saturday's $100,000 Hollywood Prevue S. (G3) serves as a prep for next month's CashCall Futurity (G1), and in this seven-furlong feature we like INDIAN FIREWATER (Indian Charlie) for the potent combo of co-owner Mike Pegram, trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Garrett Gomez.

Fourth to a highly regarded maiden winner in his Del Mar debut, Indian Firewater came right back to graduate at the same venue by more than four lengths and earned a 99 BRIS Speed rating. The odds-on choice when attempting to pass his first allowance condition at Santa Anita last time, the dark bay unfortunately endured a wide trip and was outkicked to the wire while settling for the silver medal. If he can avoid another wide journey, we feel he is more than capable in this spot.

Another Baffert trainee is MACIAS (Purge), who has won two of three including the Jack Goodman S. by a neck last time. Though he only captured that race by a neck, he found himself in the unusual position of dueling early on, which left his tank a bit empty at the end. He's clearly a major threat again in this one, though we find it intriguing that Gomez has sided with our selection here.

AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) invades from Kentucky along with jockey Julien Leparoux. He beat a next-out winner by nearly seven lengths when breaking his maiden at Keeneland last out, and could be any kind for trainer Eoin Harty.

PICO PICO (Pico Central [Brz]) did not perform up to snuff in a pair of routes recently, but like his sire he might simply prefer one-turn races. He gets a chance to redeem himself on the cutback here. Last-out maiden winners GET MY FIX (Posse) and TRIBAL FACE (Tribal Rule) earned Speed ratings that aren't too far off what the top selections have earned, though they still seem a cut below on paper.

SEATTLE RULER (Roman Ruler) reverted to lackluster form in the Norfolk S. (G1) after breaking his maiden in the Barretts Juvenile over dirt at Fairplex. He simply seems to prefer dirt to the various synthetic surfaces he will constantly have to race over as long as he remains on this circuit. PURSE LUVA (Pollard's Vision) is a three-time winner, albeit in two claiming races and a starter allowance restricted to maiden claiming winners. He obviously lacks the necessary class to pull off the upset.

TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS:		1st-INDIAN FIREWATER
		2nd-MACIAS
		3rd-AMERICAN LION

Saturday's $100,000 Cardinal H. (G3) has attracted a contentious field of nine turf distaffers, led by Churchill course specialist ACOMA (Empire Maker). Although we believe that the David Carroll filly will rebound from her last two subpar efforts, we're not so bullish as to endorse her for the win as the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Instead, we'll go value-hunting with the Jonathan Sheppard-trained LONG APPROACH (Broad Brush), a 12-1 chance who missed narrowly in last year's running of the 1 1/8-mile Cardinal.

Long Approach has been sparingly campaigned over the past two seasons, and she enters this test off a nearly seven-month layoff, but we have full confidence in Sheppard's ability to have her ready to fire off the bench. Two starts ago, the five-year-old chased home Mushka (Empire Maker) in an off-the-turf Keeneland allowance, an effort that looks even better since Mushka's promotion to victory in the Spinster S. (G1) at the same venue. When last seen in April, Long Approach rallied to finish second to the classy Criticism (GB) in the La Prevoyante H. (G2) on Calder's turf. The tactical filly figures to settle just off an honest early pace, and she should get first run on the deep closers. Kent Desormeaux has the return call.

Acoma is two-for-two over the Matt Winn Turf Course, having captured the Mrs. Revere S. (G2) a year ago and the Mint Julep H. (G3) in June. She had valid excuses in her last pair -- irregular bloodwork signaled something was amiss following her poor sixth in the Delaware H. (G2) on the main track, and Keeneland's soft turf may not have been to her liking when she trailed home ninth in the First Lady S. (G1). Acoma still has to prove that she's back to her best, however, for new rider Jesus Castanon. Note also that she's spotting five pounds to Long Approach (121 versus 116).

MY BABY BABY (Bernstein) typically gives a good account of herself, and the Ken McPeek trainee has never finished worse than second on the Churchill lawn (3-1-2-0). Runner-up to Acoma in the Mrs. Revere, she was a close second to Cocoa Beach (Chi) (Doneraile Court) in the De La Rose S. in her belated 2009 bow. In her latest venture, My Baby Baby rolled to a good-looking allowance/optional claiming score on Keeneland's Polytrack. Her regular rider Robby Albarado, who guided Acoma last time out, interestingly sticks with My Baby Baby in this spot.

LEAMINGTON (Pleasant Tap) benefited from being lone speed when capturing the Voodoo Dancer S. two back, soundly defeating My Baby Baby in fourth, but she won't get that luxury Saturday. Still, the Graham Motion filly is strikingly consistent, boasting a 5-2-2-0 mark this season. Her lone blemish was a retreating fifth in the boglike Flower Bowl Invitational (G1), and she'll improve considerably back on better ground. Leamington is a must-use in the exotics with Calvin Borel, who piloted her to an allowance score over this course and distance in June.

Southern California shipper LEMON CHIFFON (Lemon Drop Kid) runs her race every time. While we don't think that she's quite good enough to win outright, we won't be surprised if the hard-trying mare works her way into the superfecta. The Sean McCarthy pupil threw a scare into Black Mamba (NZ) (Black Minnaloushe) in the C.T.T. and Thoroughbred Owners of California H. two back, and she was most recently a solid fourth in the Yellow Ribbon S. (G1). Jon Court will partner the late runner.

YOU GO WEST GIRL (Mr. Greeley) made mincemeat of fellow New York-breds in the Ticonderoga H. last time, and a duplication of that effort would make her a top-tier contender in this spot. On the other hand, the Tom Proctor mare is taking a jump in class to graded company and might be overbet. The deep-closing SOCIAL QUEEN (Dynaformer) is capable of uncorking a big late run, but she tends to leave herself too much to do.

TIZFIZ (Tiznow) deserves credit for just hanging on in the San Gorgonio H. (G2) in January, and for beating an iffy bunch of males in the Edward J. DeBartolo Sr. H. on Labor Day. If she were lone speed, we'd take a closer look, but her chances diminish with other early speed in here in the form of ZASKAR (GB) (Anabaa). It's feast or famine for Zaskar, who either turns in bold front-running efforts or drops right out of it. The John Terranova II trainee could make us look bad for dismissing her, yet we're not sure about the cutback in distance in this spot.

TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS:	1st-LONG APPROACH
	2nd-ACOMA
	3rd-MY BABY BABY

Stormy gets the nod in Commonwealth photo

Get Stormy (blaze) clocked a stakes-record time while posting his fourth straight victory (Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer Photography) Sullimar Stable's homebred GET STORMY (Stormy Atlantic) led throughout in Sunday's $112,100 Commonwealth Turf S. (G3) at Churchill Downs, but had to pull out all the stops to stave off a rallying Street Move (Street Cry [Ire]) by a nose at the wire. With Javier Castellano aboard, the Tom Bush trainee blitzed 1 1/16 miles in a stakes-record 1:41 3/5 on the firm turf, smashing the old stakes mark of 1:43 set by Inca King in 2007. The 9-5 favorite, who was extending his winning streak to four, rewarded his backers with payouts of $5.80, $4 and $3.40. Get Stormy broke sharply from the hedge and was quick to seize the advantage, clocking splits of :23 2/5, :47 and 1:11 3/5 while pressed by Major Marvel (Bernstein). As Proceed Bee (Bernstein) stalked on the outside, Florentino (Jpn) (Swept Overboard) crept up to track the leader along the inside. In the stretch, Get Stormy spurted away from his pursuers and opened up a three-length margin. Meanwhile, Street Move, who had been steadily improving his position, erupted from midpack and set sail after him. The late runner briefly appeared ready to tackle Get Stormy, but the leader proved to be resolute. Despite hopping onto his left lead in the final yards, Get Stormy knuckled down when challenged and refused to let Street Move pass.

"We had a great post to go straight to the rail and try to harness some of my speed," Castellano said. "I don't want to take anything away from the horse. He was very sharp today and felt great. I tried to make him relax a little today. He got some pretty easy fractions up front. When I asked him to take off for home he responded very well and opened up for me. He is really starting to mature and turn into a nice horse."

"This is great," said owner/breeder Mary A. Sullivan, whose nom de course is Sullimar Stable. "This is absolutely just wonderful beyond belief. I was hoping (we'd win the photo) but I wasn't sure until they put it up. It was so close. What a great race. He's moved up a lot and now he's going to have a rest until his four-year-old year. He's done well enough to go home and take it easy for a while."

"If it was a mile and a sixteenth and a jump, (Street Move) gets all of it today," jockey Joe Bravo lamented. "Just give all the credit to Kiaran (McLaughlin) for bringing this one around. He is really starting to develop and become a great horse."

Street Move returned $6 and $4.80 for his near-miss effort at 6-1 and concluded the $43.20 exacta. The runner-up was three lengths clear of 20-1 shot Grizzled Robert (Aptitude), who yielded $10 to show and rounded out the $420.80 trifecta. Pop Tarrt (E Dubai) rallied from last for fourth, just a head shy of third, and capped the $3,470.80 superfecta (1-4-7-2) at 9-1. Proceed Bee tired to fifth and was followed by Quite a Handful (Mutakddim), Major Marvel, Florentino, Perfect Bull (Holy Bull) and Spectacular Kid (Mizzen Mast).

Get Stormy's winning skein, which began with a three-length allowance score at Saratoga in July, now includes three straight stakes. The bay sophomore captured his stakes debut in the Lure S. next time out at the Spa, then landed the Bryan Station S. (G3) at Keeneland in his latest venture. Get Stormy, who has raced exclusively on turf, sports a 12-5-2-1 mark with $273,586 in earnings.

Bred in Kentucky, Get Stormy is out of the Kiri's Clown mare Foolish Gal, whose youngest progeny are a yearling colt named Foolish Tiger (Hold That Tiger) and a weanling filly named Glory Gal (Honour and Glory). With his fourth dam being multiple stakes heroine Amerigo's Fancy (*Amerigo), Get Stormy hails from the family of Grade 2 winners Tres Borrachos (Ecton Park), Informed (Tiznow), Triple Tipple (Raise a Cup) and Summer Wind Dancer (Siberian Summer).

Mary's Follies steals the show in Mrs. Revere

The connections of Big Brown made another successful invasion of Churchill Downs on Saturday when MARY'S FOLLIES (More Than Ready) slammed a capacity field of three-year-old fillies in the $209,500 Mrs. Revere S. (G2) by 1 1/2 lengths. Paul Pompa Jr., the original owner of Big Brown who later sold a majority interest in the colt to IEAH Stable, campaigns the bay. She is trained by Rick Dutrow and was ridden here by Kent Desormeaux. The 9-1 fourth choice among 14 paid $20.80, $11.40 and $8.40.

Desormeaux guided Mary's Follies to a ground-saving position along the rail as War Kill (War Chant) darted out to an early lead through splits of :24 1/5 and :48 2/5. That advantage began to diminish after War Kill clipped off six furlongs in 1:12 2/5, as a stampede of runners waited to take their shot, including pace presser Romacaca (Running Stag) and Keertana (Johar). Turning for home those two had every opportunity, but Desormeaux had shifted Mary's Follies off the rail and proved through the stretch that he had the most horse underneath. Mary's Follies burst to the lead with more than a furlong to go and extended her advantage to the wire. She completed 1 1/16 miles on the firm turf in a stakes-record 1:41 3/5.

"When I was in the paddock before the race I was told I had a loaded gun underneath me," Desormeaux said. "All I had to do was aim and pull the trigger."

Keertana, at 13-1, prevailed by a length for second, returning $14 and $7.80. Romacaca paid $10.80 at 15-1 after lasting by a neck over 2-1 favorite Hot Cha Cha (Cactus Ridge), the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) winner. The exacta paid $261.80, the trifecta $4,405.80, and the 5-11-9-7 superfecta gave back $14,902.20.

Bluegrass Princess (Dynaformer), Striking Dancer (Smart Strike), Miss World (Bernstein), Single Solution (Flatter), Kiawah Cat (Lemon Drop Kid), War Kill, C. S. Silk (Medaglia d'Oro), Redreamit (Tapit), Miss Keller (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]), and Obsequious (Fusaichi Pegasus) completed the order of finish. Also-eligibles Aaroness (Distorted Humor), Alice's Smart (Smart Strike) and Bum Bum (Fr) (Giant's Causeway) failed to draw in.

The win was the second in as many turf attempts for Mary's Follies, who also took the Boiling Springs S. (G3) at Monmouth Park in June for trainer John Forbes. She was the beaten favorite when second in the off-the-turf Lake George S. (G3) at Saratoga when debuting for Dutrow in her next start, then trailed the field in the Cotillion S. (G2) prior to the Mrs. Revere. Earlier in the year, Mary's Follies had finished a neck second in the Just Smashing S., a six-furlong dash at Monmouth. Her record now stands at 9-4-3-1, $319,581.

Bred by Mr. and Mrs. David Randal in Kentucky, the winner was a $40,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland September. She is out of the Miswaki mare Catch the Queen, who has since produced the unraced juvenile colt Catch a Wild One (Wild and Wicked) and a weanling filly by Good Reward. Mary's Follies' second dam is multiple stakes heroine Wave to the Queen (Wavering Monarch). This is the family of noted sire Bold Reasoning (Boldnesian), hero of the 1971 Withers S. and Jersey Derby, as well as Grade 1 winner Star Over the Bay (Cozzene).

COMMENTARY

NOVEMBER 14, 2009

Horse of the Year debate

by John Mucciolo

Since the debate regarding who should be voted Horse of the Year for 2009 will be running rampant until the selection takes place at the Eclipse Awards in January, I figured that chiming in with my two cents couldn't hurt, right?

Excellent cases can be made for each of the two wunderkind female athletes in what is clearly the most entertaining and historic year of racing since I got sucked into this way of life more than a decade ago. In a normal year, the voting would be a no-brainer with either of this sensational duo, but in 2009, with otherworldly performances by both Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) and Zenyatta, it seems unfortunate that one of them must not win the grandest prize at the Eclipse Award ceremonies. Still, it has to be Rachel Alexandra.

Rachel, as she is commonly referred to as, won all eight of her races this year and turned back the clock to be the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win the Preakness S. (G1). In addition to that courageous victory, she thoroughly dominated her sophomore filly counterparts with incomparable ease and also defeated males in both the Haskell Invitational S. (G1) (over soon-to-be three-year-old champion Summer Bird [Birdstone]), and the Woodward S. (G1) (the first filly ever to win that demanding and prestigious race). And while I'm not sure if captivating a racing nation and bringing a plethora of new racing fans to our sport matters in this particular vote, she undoubtedly did so.

What especially must be taken into account is whom Rachel defeated this year, and that's where her argument is strongest. The burly Kentucky-bred was much, much the best over the winners, either previously or subsequently, of the following 2009 races: Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont S. (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), Travers S. (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup S. (G1), Whitney H. (G1), Stephen Foster H. (G1), Arkansas Derby (G2), Acorn S. (G1), Test S. (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), Woody Stephens S. (G2), Illinois Derby (G2) and Tom Fool H. (G2) -- to say that she beat some accomplished horses is an outrageous understatement! Her connections went after the Horse of the Year title, and racing is better for it.

Her voyages took her to Oaklawn Park, Pimlico, Churchill Downs, Aqueduct, Belmont, Fair Grounds and Monmouth Park. Her durability can never be questioned. This has to be considered one of the greatest individual campaigns recorded in recent times.

The incomparable, invincible, unbeatable, etc...Zenyatta, did everything she was asked of in 2009 -- and in her lifetime -- but we must remember that we are voting on this year and not a whole body of work. The majestic five-year-old capped off yet another flawless campaign with an historic score over a top-notch field in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), becoming the first female ever to accomplish the feat.

Her foes earlier in the year left something to be desired, though, as dual Grade 1 heroine Life is Sweet (Storm Cat) is the only noteworthy runner she topped in 2009 prior to the Classic. The all-timer had chances to run with better in the Pacific Classic S. (G1), Hollywood Gold Cup S. (G1) and Santa Anita H. (G1), but her connections opted not to pursue the Horse of the Year trophy. It's not her fault, but, unfortunately, she must be punished for that.

We can't take away from the 11 she cruised past in the Classic, featuring Grade/Group 1 winners Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat), Twice Over (GB) (Observatory), Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), Einstein (Brz) (Spend a Buck), Colonel John, Mine That Bird (Birdstone) and Summer Bird. But even in that event, I question if she beat the real Summer Bird, or the real Mine that Bird, or even the real Girolamo (A.P. Indy), the real Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor); I hope you catch the drift of my intention. Not to say that she wouldn't or couldn't have trounced those same foes on a dirt oval, but one must acknowledge that she had a major edge over many of her counterparts in the Classic -- both in surface and locale. Zenyatta raced solely in Southern California this year with virtually no travel and never put in a dirt or turf effort, focusing solely on synthetic starts.

If there was to be a truly run race with both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra among the competitors, I would think that the five-year-old would win more times than not. She's just too athletically talented and mentally gifted to let a horse in front of her get away. But that is not what this vote is all about. The focus has to be on the whole body of work for 2009, not who might win a match race.

As I type this, it becomes increasingly clearer to me that Rachel should actually win Horse of the Year with little or no debate. This is far from an East Coast bias, just common sense. I told whoever would listen that nothing would beat Zenyatta prior to the Classic, and I have become a giant fan of hers, so I'm not playing favorites. I was at both the Classic and Preakness and admittedly cried after both. We might not have another year of racing like this for a very long time -- if ever.

But it should be forever known as the Year of Rachel!

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

NOVEMBER 13, 2009

by Dick Powell

It was not a good Breeders' Cup for me until about 3:57 p.m. Pacific time when it was worth all the money I had lost on Saturday.

My handicapping angle that Aidan O'Brien was going to have a great Breeders' Cup for a change looked good on Friday when MAN OF IRON (Giant's Causeway) upset the Marathon by a nose for Team Ballydoyle. But that was the only O'Brien trainee that raced with Lasix and whether it was a coincidence or not, the others that did not race with the diuretic ran terribly.

So instead of having 24-1 longshot Ready's Echo (More than Ready) on top in the Dirt Mile (G1), I had him second with O'Brien trainee Mastercraftsman (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) on top. In the Juvenile (G1), I went with O'Brien's Alfred Nobel (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) and had the 30-1 winner only third. On Friday, I went with 3-2 favorite Lillie Langtry (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) on top and 10-1 winner TAPITSFLY (Tapit) picked for second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. And in the biggest screw-up of the weekend, I went with Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) instead of ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) in the Classic (G1).

It's not like any of this should have been a surprise since O'Brien's Breeders' Cup record has been poor. Somehow, I thought he would make the necessary changes and show up loaded for bear. To add salt to the wound, his horses were all overbet so they represented little pari-mutuel value.

One reason that O'Brien has had so much trouble when racing in the United States is how poorly his horses get away from the gate. Here is how the O'Brien horses broke from the gate during the Breeders' Cup:

Man of Iron: 9th of 10
Lillie Langtry: 8th of 12
Viscount Nelson (Giant's Causeway): 12th of 12
Beethoven (Ire) (Oratorio [Ire]): 10th of 13
Alfred Nobel: 12th of 13
Mastercraftsman: 7th of 10
Rip Van Winkle: 10th of 12.

In American racing, that's too much ground to concede whether it's the main track or the turf.

But, years ago, Hall of Fame trainer John Nerud was quoted as saying, "A bad day at the track is better than a good day anywhere else." It couldn't have been any truer than last Saturday at Santa Anita.

The Breeders' Cup Classic has been run 26 times (not 25 like I wrote last week), and Saturday's running ranks up there with the first one with Wild Again desperately holding on and surviving a long stewards' inquiry; the 1988 edition with Alysheba rallying to win in near darkness, the 1989 edition with Sunday Silence holding off Easy Goer; and the 2001 edition with Tiznow "wins it for America."

I'm not saying Saturday's edition was better, but that it ranks right with these great championship races. My personal favorite has always been the 1989 edition because of all the tension and drama attached to the race.

Much of handicapping is extrapolation. A horse is successful in one circumstance and now you have to project how it will do in a different one. Zenyatta was undefeated in 13 starts and most of those races were at 1 1/16 miles. She had never run 1 1/4 miles, so even at the age of five she was entering unknown territory.

A big handicapping mistake that we all make is that we extrapolate a horse that makes up ground in a shorter race and conclude that they will be able to handle longer distances. Another big handicapping mistake that we all make is that we conclude that a horse that tires at a shorter distance will tire more at a longer distance without ever taking pace scenarios into consideration.

In Zenyatta's case, I've been waiting for her to stretch out in distance based not only on running style but on a truly stout pedigree. Her sire, Street Cry (Ire), has become a major source of stamina in pedigrees both here and abroad, as his son SHOCKING won the two-mile Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) earlier in the week in Australia.

As her trainer John Shirreffs has said, the fact that she was undefeated in 13 starts while coming from behind is truly remarkable. A lot can go wrong when you do not dictate your own circumstances, but she was always good enough to overcome anything thrown in her path. Finally, last Saturday, we got to see her run at what should be her optimum distance.

In Zenyatta's case, it didn't matter who she was facing. What was more important was that she was facing them at 10 furlongs. That extra furlong between nine and 10 seems to separate many pretenders from contenders. On Saturday, it confirmed greatness.

After Quality Road (Elusive Quality) had to be scratched at the gate due to a physical and mental meltdown, Mike Smith had Zenyatta away last from the gate. She ran very awkwardly through the stretch the first time as he was trying to get her to race on her correct lead. We have written in this space many times how Zenyatta does not warm up before the race, and that the first half-mile is used for that purpose, so we had little cause for concern.

Down the backstretch with 11 male rivals ahead of her, Smith was able to close the gap and with a half-mile to go she was in contact with the field. He kept her to the inside as much as possible to save ground and she began to find her best stride around the far turn.

Despite her enormous size and stride, Zenyatta is amazingly athletic. She runs with her weight underneath her with great balance. In the past, Smith rode like you are supposed to ride a 1-5 favorite -- go around horses using a clear path. Now, he had to ride her like any other racehorse and he steered her inside horses nearing the top of the stretch.

Zenyatta's response was without hesitation and she shot through the hole like a bullet. With a wall of about five horses in front of her, Smith switched her to the outside but had to wait a few strides for Twice Over (GB) (Observatory) to clear. With about a furlong to go, Smith had her in the position that he wanted and just like in the Clement Hirsch S. (G1) at Del Mar, when she used her incredible stride to get to the wire, her male rivals never had a chance.

She flew the last furlong like Forego in the Marlboro Cup (G1) and won going away. To show you how strong she was going 10 furlongs, she galloped out even farther in front after the wire in a brazen display of dominance. Forget the fact that she was a female facing males, Zenyatta's Classic win was not to be denied. If she was ever going to beat, it was at the shorter distances. If she ran 10 furlongs 14 times, she would be 14-for-14 as well. But, it would have been a lot easier.

I'll leave all the comparisons between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) to others. But there is one issue I have to comment on. I was at Saratoga sitting in section C for the Woodward S. (G1) and Rachel's exciting win. It was the loudest crowd I ever heard at Saratoga. I was at Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup on Saturday sitting in section K. There was no comparison between the crowd noise and how long the celebratory mood after the race was sustained. Saturday was better. And this is from someone that lost a lot of money. I'd do it again in a heartbeat. It was a great day at the track.

THOROUGHBRED BEAT

NOVEMBER 12, 2009

by James Scully

Z glory: ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) concluded her unbeaten racing career with an outstanding win in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), thrilling Thoroughbred racing fans one last time with her thunderous rally through the stretch. The John Shirreffs pupil was trying both males and the 1 1/4-mile distance for the first time, and the ease of her victory was striking -- she didn't even appear to be breathing hard after blowing past her top-class rivals.

Zenyatta became the first distaffer to win in the 26-year history of the Classic, but this year's Breeders' Cup, as well as the 2008 edition at Santa Anita, will always be remembered for the Pro-Ride. There's been plenty of anomalies over the controversial surface -- synthetic specialist and Dirt Mile (G1) hero FURTHEST LAND (Smart Strike) would have had no chance of winning on actual dirt -- but Zenyatta is as legitimate as they come. Anybody who watched her sensational 4 1/2-length victory in the 2008 Apple Blossom H. (G1) at Oaklawn Park knows that she's the real deal on dirt or synthetics. Her 107 BRIS Speed rating that afternoon was eclipsed only by the 109 figure she earned in the Classic.

The five-year-old mare capped off the Breeders' Cup weekend in grand fashion.

Horse of the Year toss-up: The debate heated up the moment Zenyatta finished humbling her male rivals in the Classic, and her supporters will have every reason to bemoan the outcome if Zenyatta loses the Horse of the Year race to RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro). Zenyatta showed up in Thoroughbred racing's championship event, and the connections of Rachel Alexandra, who defeated males in the Preakness (G1), Haskell Invitational (G1) and Woodward (G1) during her remarkable eight-for-eight campaign this season, elected to stay at home.

"If they don't reward her with Horse of the Year, it would be a travesty, or at least co-Horses of the Year (with Rachel Alexandra)," trainer Bob Baffert said. "Zenyatta made the Breeders' Cup. And the way she won! I've never seen a crowd so captivated. It felt like a horse winning the third leg of the Triple Crown."

Rachel Alexandra will have every opportunity to win Horse of the Year honors in 2010, but Saturday's Classic was Zenyatta's swan song and she delivered one the greatest performances in Breeders' Cup history. Her connections deserve all the credit in the world for bringing her back this season -- they could've easily retired her unbeaten following last year's smashing victory in the Ladies' Classic (G1) -- and their decision-making provided so much enjoyment to fans of Thoroughbred racing.

It could go either way, but I think Eclipse Award voters who give Zenyatta the nod will be recognizing the contributions of trainer John Shirreffs and owners Mr. and Mrs. Jerry Moss. She'll be a deserving winner, just like Curlin and Jess Jackson were last year following the colt's subpar effort in the Breeders' Cup.

No more Pro-Ride: There would be no Horse of the Year debate without synthetic tracks, but we're stuck with this lamentable situation because of the undesirable effect that they've brought to the sport domestically. Synthetic tracks are a third surface, and they're not going to be installed at any major venues in the future. Enthusiasm has already began to wane in California as trainers have become disillusioned with all the unforeseen drawbacks; the artificial concoctions aren't what distributors and proponents promised us. Dirt is the backbone of the racing industry in America, and synthetic tracks play as much like turf as they do a traditional surface. Some horses excel on any kind of ground, but many don't.

As a result, Rachel Alexandra didn't compete at Santa Anita, and I don't blame her connections. Next year will be her opportunity to shine, and they weren't about to let Rachel show up and perform well below standards like D' FUNNYBONE (D'wildcat) or DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon), who established themselves as the top two-year-olds on the East Coast in their respective divisions. D' Funnybone finished last in the Juvenile (G1), and Devil May Care beat only one horse in the Juvenile Fillies (G1). These horses had never raced over a synthetic track and were predictably out of their element over foreign ground.

It's basically a waste of time and money to run a horse without synthetic or turf experience in a Breeders' Cup race on Pro-Ride. For the second straight year, every winner on the Pro-Ride was proven on either surface.

The most common misconception in the Breeders' Cup aftermath is that synthetic tracks are essential to attracting European contestants. The Pro-Ride didn't benefit RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) or MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire). These European standouts (Rip Van Winkle was the second best horse in Europe this year behind Sea the Stars; Mastercraftsman was a multiple Group1 winner this season) probably would've run better over the dirt at Churchill Downs than Pro-Ride. They failed to show up with their best on the synthetic track, as did well-regarded Europeans like RAINBOW VIEW (Dynaformer), MASTERY (GB) (Sulamani [Ire]), FATHER TIME (GB) (Dansili [GB]), FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) and RADIOHEAD (GB) (Johannesburg).

The Euros that did succeed on Pro-Ride, MAN OF IRON (Giant's Causeway) and VALE OF YORK (Ire) (Invincible Spirit), both recorded big upsets and those can happen on any surface.

The top European performers this year, CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani), GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa) and MIDDAY (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]), won on grass, and horses like them show up every year for the Breeders' Cup turf races. The Pro-Ride at Santa Anita had nothing to do with their participation. And the fact is that European-based horses will compete on the main track no matter where the Breeders' Cup is held, with international raiders like Arcangues, Giant's Causeway, Sakhee and Ibn Bey (GB) all leaving an indelible mark upon previous Classics on dirt.

Regardless of the site, the Breeders' Cup isn't going to be the target for every top-class runner overseas. For the second straight year, the highest-ranked horse in Europe (Zarkava in 2008 and Sea the Stars this year) bypassed shipping to the warm Southern Californian climate. And I think the connections of Sea the Stars were probably smiling in appreciation of their decision following the 10th-place flop of Rip Van Winkle.

Tough beats: Troubled trips are a daily part of Thoroughbred racing, and I'll highlight a trio of tough beats from Breeders' Cup weekend.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is bred to handle dirt and established himself as the early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite based upon his stellar two-year-old form in California. Unbeaten in his first four starts, including the Norfolk (G1) and Del Mar Futurity (G1), the Baffert-trained colt drew post 13 in the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile and was carried extremely wide into the first turn after being bumped repeatedly. He lost more valuable ground on the far turn, circling five wide into contention for the stretch drive, and raced valiantly to the wire, falling a head short to a longshot who was able to save ground the entire way.

"He showed today what a good horse he is," Baffert said. "It's just frustrating to know you have much the best horse and to come up short like that. I didn't give him any chance at all at the half-mile pole. At least you know that you can look forward to the Derby."

Zenyatta was the only winner Saturday to go last-to-first on Pro-Ride, but READY'S ECHO (More Than Ready) was in position to mow down his rivals after turning for home in the Dirt Mile. However, in the midst of his furious rally, the four-year-old colt was interfered with by Mambo Meister (King Cugat), who veered out and bumped his rival twice in midstretch, knocking Ready's Echo off stride momentarily. The late runner regained his momentum, but it was too late as Ready's Echo fell less than a length short in second.

"I just wish we'd had a longer stretch to run in," jockey Calvin Borel said. "We came a little wide and, as a matter of fact, the six horse (Mambo Meister) cost me the race; he came out to me and I had to steady."

In the Juvenile Fillies, BIOFUEL (Stormin Fever) started from the extreme outside post (12) and dropped to the back of the pack after the gates opened. She circled at least six paths wide on the far turn and began to go after the leaders with earnest in the stretch when Negligee (Northern Afleet) came out and slammed into her left front leg, nearly knocking Biofuel to the ground. The Reade Baker-trained lass never appeared to fully recover from the traumatic incident, but she continued to make up ground on the far outside and was beaten less than two lengths for it all in fourth.

"She got mugged," Baker told Daily Racing Form. "I thought she was the best horse; she should have won the race."

Irish woes: Man of Iron saved Coolmore and trainer Aidan O'Brien from being blanked for the sixth consecutive year, but it still wound up being a very disappointing Breeders' Cup for the Irish outfit. In 2008, O'Brien saddled losing favorites in Soldier of Fortune (Ire), Halfway to Heaven (Ire) and Westphalia (Ire), and Duke of Marmalade (Ire) faltered as the third choice in the Classic. Henrythenavigator's runner-up effort at 19-1 offered a ray of sunshine at the end of the long weekend, but they weren't able to get out town on an encouraging note this year.

Coolmore sold Man of Iron prior to his Marathon victory, so his next start will come with new connections. The remaining O'Brien runners all performed well below standards in 2009. I won't heap all the blame on Johnny Murtagh, but he's proving to be a disservice to some of his mounts with perplexing rides in the Breeders' Cup. His lack of pace awareness aboard Rip Van Winkle was unbelievable -- the horse was chasing the pacesetter in second early before folding his tent like all the other front runners -- and he delivered a similar ride aboard Duke of Marmalade last year.

O'Brien could elect to go with competent American jockeys in the 2010 Breeders' Cup, and the proof was in the pudding last year when John Velazquez got the most out of Henrythenavigator, but that probably won't happen. We can only speculate on how much more the Coolmore horses would offer with a rider like Velazquez on their major contenders in the Breeders' Cup.

INTERNATIONAL DIARY

NOVEMBER 1, 2009

by Kellie Reilly

Throughout history, the celestial realm has been viewed as the abode of surpassing excellence. "They that are learned shall shine as the brightness of the firmament, and they that instruct many to justice, as stars for all eternity," as the Book of Daniel expresses it in the Judeo-Christian tradition. In the pagan Roman world, the appearance of a comet following the assassination of Julius Caesar was thought to be his deified soul, blazing his trail toward the gods. In our own time, our lexicon bristles with such words as "star," "stellar," "heavenly," and "other-worldly" to describe the exceptionally good. With this in mind, it now seems a matter of destiny that SEA THE STARS (Cape Cross [Ire]) has lived up to the loftiest implications of his name.

By concluding his career with a triumph in the October 4 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), Sea the Stars has added the one important item previously missing from his resume -- a victory over older horses at 1 1/2 miles. Not only did he answer that question, but the John Oxx colt did so in emphatic style after adversity that would have wrecked the hopes of a lesser horse.

Sea the Stars broke sharply and found himself alongside a Ballydoyle pacemaker in the opening strides. When Mick Kinane eased him back into a ground-saving spot off the pace, the all-conquering champion began to pull fiercely, perhaps the hardest he has ever pulled in the early going. That alone would have posed a concern, but in addition, Sea the Stars was shuffled back further in the field. From the pan shot, it appeared that he was jostled and bumped, and for an instant, I was afraid that he might slam into the rail. A horrible thought flashed across my mind: "Everything's going wrong for him; if he can't overcome this brutal trip, he'll have plenty of valid excuses, and we'll never know if he would have passed this test."

Sea the Stars saved us from that worst of all endings -- the ambiguous, inconclusive, and ultimately unknowable -- by overcoming those early trials with his typical panache. Straightening up into the stretch, as STACELITA (Monsun) overtook the exhausted rabbits, and DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) challenged her, Sea the Stars commenced his startling rally.

The royally-bred bay once again showed his speed and agility by diving through a gap along the inside. In a few strides, as the entire field was quickening, he accelerated even faster to reach contention, his brilliance equaled only by his characteristic nonchalance about it all. Sea the Stars' lightning-quick move made his rivals look downright ordinary.

Once Sea the Stars had charged onto Stacelita's heels, the outcome was a foregone conclusion. He angled out, split the fillies Stacelita and Dar Re Mi, and strode two lengths clear, flashing his "ears up" signal as he crossed the wire. The beauty of his victory was that it left no room for quibbling. Sea the Stars stayed more than every yard of the trip, for he actually kicked away again when a rival came near him on the gallop-out.

Perennial bridesmaid YOUMZAIN (Sinndar) barreled home late to grab runner-up honors for the third straight year. As a one-run closer, the Mick Channon charge doesn't have tactical options, and he did as well as could have been expected. The six-year-old will now head to the December 13 Hong Kong Vase (HK-G1), and he will stay in training for a fourth tilt at the Arc.

Youmzain got up in a three-way photo in the Arc, besting the three-year-old CAVALRYMAN (Halling) by a head, with CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani) finishing strongly another head back in fourth. Dar Re Mi ran a tremendous race to hold on for fifth, especially considering that she was forwardly placed in the main body of the field throughout, following the pacemakers. (I'll be writing more about Conduit and Dar Re Mi in an upcoming Breeders' Cup feature.)

Cavalryman, hero of the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1) and Prix Niel (Fr-G2), turned in the best performance by a sophomore not named Sea the Stars. Despite breaking from the dreadful post 19, and stalking early, the Andre Fabre colt kept on in determined fashion. In the process, Cavalryman continued the potent trend of Niel winners doing well in the Arc. Plans call for him to join the Godolphin banner in 2010, when he may light up the inaugural Dubai World Cup night at the Meydan facility.

The biggest disappointment of the Arc was sixth-place finisher FAME AND GLORY (Montjeu [Ire]), who raced evenly most of the way and never threatened. Stacelita tired inside the final furlong and checked in seventh, dead-heating with the unheralded longshot LA BOUM (Monsun). Of the remainder, the most notable was VISION D'ETAT (Chichicastenango), who wilted to 10th.

Vision d'Etat was in the hunt in the stretch before Sea the Stars shot past him. Ironically, he was similarly humbled in the 2008 Arc, when he was in the vicinity of Zarkava before she dusted him. He had stayed on better last year, finishing fifth, but his stamina cracked this time at a fast-run 12 furlongs. Trainer Eric Libaud has mentioned that he will cut back to 1 1/4 miles for the December 13 Hong Kong Cup (HK-G1), and judging by his successes in the 2008 Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) (Fr-G1) and the 2009 Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) at similar trips, he should be a prime contender.

Stacelita is another who couldn't see out the trip in a fast-run Arc, but this season's Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (Fr-G1) heroine turned in a high-caliber effort for the first 11 furlongs. The Jean-Claude Rouget filly raced at the head of the main body of the field throughout, with only the rabbits in front of her, and she stormed into the lead proper in the stretch. Stacelita figures to be a major player in the top-tier 10-furlong events next year, and I'd love to see her try something like the Prince of Wales's, Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), or Juddmonte International (Eng-G1) because she's world-class. She'd be well worth another try at 1 1/2 miles too, as long as the early pace weren't too fast. After all, she was just collared by Dar Re Mi in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1) at the Arc course and distance two back (and was subsequently awarded the victory upon the outrageous disqualification of Dar Re Mi).

Fame and Glory had no such excuse in the Arc, for the race was run to suit him, but the Aidan O'Brien colt did not keep up his end of the bargain. There are two ways to read this performance: either he was flattered by his previous efforts, especially his romp in the Irish Derby (Ire-G1), or he simply ran below par in the Arc. I think it's too soon to render a definitive verdict, but at the moment, I'd incline toward the idea that he's off form. In a surprisingly quick return in the October 17 Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket, Fame and Glory came under pressure early and toiled home sixth again (more on the Champion below). This was not the same horse who chased home Sea the Stars at Epsom, or even the one he swept past in the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1). Given his lackluster displays of late, it's just as well that he isn't coming for the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1).

Sea the Stars has now completed his golden season as the first horse ever to sweep the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), Derby (Eng-G1) and Arc, a triple that eluded such luminaries as Nijinsky II, Mill Reef and Dancing Brave. Remarkably, he has not merely coped with the rigors of the season, but he thrived on them and gained strength from them. Like a statesman who grows in office, rising to meet the challenges of his time, Sea the Stars scaled heights that few could have predicted at the start of the year. Remember, as recently as April, he was just one of a number of classic contenders -- promising, to be sure, but not reportedly supposed to be the stuff of greatness.

Six months later, Sea the Stars has joined the immortals. I'll resist the temptation to turn this into a year-in-review piece, saving that kind of retrospective for my third annual Reilly Turf Awards, but will wrap up the Arc by returning to our opening theme about the symbolism of stars. Sea the Stars has conquered his opponents handily without crushing them mercilessly, and off the course, he has shown a well-ordered, calm, and kindly temperament even when besieged by his most ardent fans. For these reasons, it may not be out of place to comment that Sea the Stars has excelled according to both the Judeo-Christian view, which prizes moral achievement, and the Roman view, which honors political/military success.

While it would have been fascinating to watch how Sea the Stars might have fared as a four-year-old, facing the cream of the next crop, I agree with the decision to retire him to stud. Short-term, of course, we fans will keenly feel his absence and wonder how next year's classic crop would have measured up against him.

Taking a long-term view, however, there's a fiduciary responsibility to the breed. A horse of such magnificent gifts, and no visible flaw, could exert a profound influence at stud. Keeping him in training, and racing him at four, would necessarily entail risks. Sea the Stars has been sound as a bell, but how often have we heard that about a horse who ultimately suffers a tragic mishap? Rather than risk something going amiss, the Tsui family has chosen wisely to retire him now, and safeguard his future as a potentially breed-shaping stallion. Furthermore, lest anyone contend that money was at the root of this decision, remember that the Aga Khan retired his homebred filly Zarkava in similar circumstances one year ago -- no stallion value at issue there, just safely retiring her to his broodmare band so that her exquisite bloodlines could be passed on to ensuing generations.

Nor am I disappointed that Sea the Stars will not appear in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). Why should he have to prove himself on an alien surface, an entire ocean and continent away, after he reigned supreme in Europe? Is there any doubt that he's sewn up the title of "world champion" already? The Classic has developed into America's championship race, with significant international flair, but it does not have the history or cache of the races that Sea the Stars has already won. Indeed, the Arc was a glorious exclamation point; what pressing need was there to follow it up?

Sea the Stars will have an able representative, so to speak, in the Classic in RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]). The O'Brien colt was a sneakily-good fourth to Sea the Stars in both the Guineas and Derby, and he threw down a real challenge in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) before Sea the Stars brushed him aside in stakes-record time. Had Sea the Stars stayed home for the Irish Derby, instead of going to the Eclipse, "Rip" would have been a devastating winner by 4 1/2 lengths over Conduit. If Rip prevails in the Classic, it can be read as a victory by proxy for Sea the Stars.

Also Breeders' Cup Classic-bound is Juddmonte Farms' homebred TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory), who captured the aforementioned Champion over 1 1/4 miles at Newmarket last time out. Reserved off the pace, the Henry Cecil charge rallied into contention and stayed on resolutely to score by a half-length from an unlucky MAWATHEEQ (Danzig), with Oaks (Eng-G1) victress SARISKA (Pivotal) a solid third at a distance short of her best.

Mawatheeq, who was cutting back in trip after taking the 1 1/2-mile Cumberland Lodge S. (Eng-G3), would have finished even closer with clear sailing. The regally-bred four-year-old was making a bold move before being squeezed back when Twice Over drifted out. Mawatheeq lost momentum as he had to angle to the left of Twice Over. Nevertheless, he regrouped quickly and was closing the gap approaching the wire. An objection was lodged against Twice Over, but the stewards allowed the result to stand. Other jurisdictions may have reached a different verdict.

Twice Over was finally fulfilling his early promise after losing his way a bit. A narrow winner over eventual Breeders' Cup Classic hero Raven's Pass in last year's Craven S. (G3), he was third to Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass in the St. James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) and ended his sophomore campaign with a distant runner-up effort in the 2008 Champion, which New Approach won in grand style in course-record time.

Earlier this year, Twice Over had come close a couple of times in top-level company, beaten all of a half-length when third in the Lockinge S. (Eng-G1) and tiring to fourth very late in the Prince of Wales's at Royal Ascot. The bay returned on relatively short rest in the Eclipse and never landed a blow in seventh. Cecil freshened him thereafter and gave him class relief in his next two starts, resulting in confidence-boosting wins. Twice Over was trained to the minute for the Champion and duly delivered, thrusting him unexpectedly into the Breeders' Cup picture.

My upcoming Breeders' Cup features will include more analysis of recent European developments.

With the curtain coming down on the European Flat season, the International Diary will go into winter quarters, to return next spring when the European classics are in full swing.

The center of gravity now shifts to the other side of the globe. Following the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1), on Monday night U.S. time, the year's final major events will take place in Japan and Hong Kong. Japan's Autumn International Series comprises the November 15 Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup (Jpn-G1), the November 22 Mile Championship (Jpn-G1), the November 29 Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) and the December 6 Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-G1). As has become customary, the December 13 Hong Kong International Races promise to end 2009 with a bang, and in early 2010, all eyes will be fixed upon the Dubai International Racing Carnival at Meydan.

JUVENILE FILLIES DIARY

OCTOBER 30, 2009

by James Scully

With the Breeders' Cup fast approaching, we'll take a look at the final premiere preps for the Juvenile Fillies (G1) and Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Home field advantage: The top two in the October 4 Oak Leaf (G1) at Santa Anita, BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) and ALWAYS A PRINCESS (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]), will loom large in the Juvenile Fillies. Blind Luck, who finished a commendable second when making her stakes debut in the September 5 Darley Debutante (G1), rallied from off the pace to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths, and her 93 BRIS Speed rating stacks up favorably with unbeaten counterpart and likely Juvenile (G1) favorite Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike), who registered a 94 number for his Norfolk S. (G1) score a couple of races after the Oak Leaf.

After selling for $11,000 at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale, Blind Luck opened her racing career in a $40,000 maiden claimer at Calder, winning by 13 1/4 lengths. She was sold and transferred to Jerry Hollendorfer following her sparkling debut, and the improving chestnut looks completely at ease in routes. The late runner netted a 114 BRIS Late Pace rating in the Oak Leaf.

Always a Princess made a strong impression when capturing her career bow at Del Mar. After breaking poorly, the Bob Baffert pupil launched her rally on the far turn and flew through the stretch to win by three-quarters of a length, and she was made the lukewarm 3-1 favorite in the Oak Leaf off the encouraging effort. However, the chestnut drew the rail and broke running under Garrett Gomez, establishing moderate early splits on a half-length lead, and was really no match for the winner. She still held gamely for second, but I expect to see an improved performance with a change in tactics next time. Always a Princess figures to be stalking the speed on November 6.

Third-placer BICKERSONS (Silver Deputy) showed speed in her first three starts on dirt, including a well-beaten third in the Spinaway (G1), but she settled just off the pace in the Oak Leaf and was never a serious factor. Don't be surprised to see the Kelly Breen runner show more speed next time under Joe Bravo.

Keeneland contingent: Four of the top five finishers in the October 9 Alcibiades S. (G1), including 12-1 upsetter NEGLIGEE (Northern Afleet), will travel west for the Breeders' Cup, and I won't be surprised to see the Keeneland prep have a serious impact. Negligee ran two good races at Woodbine before striking in her graded stakes debut, rallying from midpack to win by a half-length over the Polytrack, and John Terranova excels with shippers, winning at a 22 percent clip over the past two seasons. Negligee could be overlooked again in the wagering at Santa Anita.

SHE BE WILD (Offlee Wild) made her two-turn debut in the Alcibiades and raced close to the pace before seizing the lead on the far turn. She was caught late by Negligee, but finished a clear second and is eligible to keep improving off this effort for Wayne Catalano. The dark bay raced further off the pace in her previous two stakes wins at Arlington, and there will be more speed to set up her late rally in the Juvenile Fillies.

BEAUTICIAN (Dehere) struggled through a tough trip at Keeneland, eventually checking in fifth after having nowhere to run on the far turn and into the stretch, and the Grade 1 runner-up is eligible to show more in her second start over a synthetic track next time. Fourth-placer ZILVA (Successful Appeal) is under consideration for the Juvenile Fillies, but she appears headed to the Juvenile Fillies Turf, which is her first preference. We give her a chance to run well in either spot. After dropping far back in the Alcibiades, she offered a stout, albeit belated late run, and the Pennsylvania-bred looks like an up-and-coming filly for Graham Motion. She's one to consider for the bottom of the exotics at long odds.

Frizette Devil: The October 10 Frizette S. (G1) at Belmont Park will produce only one contestant for the Juvenile Fillies, DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon), and she would be one of the top contenders if the race was held on dirt. The unbeaten Todd Pletcher runner is an extremely promising prospect for events like the Kentucky Oaks (G1) next season, but she'll be forced to make her synthetic debut in the Breeders' Cup.

Her half-brother, Super Derby (G2) and U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) hero Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor), ran poorly when trying a synthetic surface in the 2008 Norfolk S. (G1), and Devil May Care is a candidate to follow in his hoofsteps. She's started slowly in both career starts, overcoming the tardy beginning to defeat medium-sized fields, but a bad break could cost her dearly against a large cast.

She's talented, but it's difficult to get excited about Devil May Care's chances in the Breeders' Cup.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: LILLIE LANGTRY (Ire) (Danehill Dancer), winner of the Debutante (Ire-G2) and third in the Moyglare Stud (Ire-G1), looms as the probable favorite for Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien. She's got the class to be a serious factor against a mostly unproven bunch of American-based fillies.

HOUSE OF GRACE (Limehouse), SMART SEATTLE (Smart Strike) and HATHEER (Storm Cat), the top three respective finishers in the off-the-turf Jessamine S. at Keeneland, are all contenders in the one-mile turf affair, and we're especially intrigued by Hatheer, who is the second foal to race out of 2002 champion turf mare Golden Apples (Ire) (Pivotal). She counts Grade 3 turf scorer Habaya as a full sister, and Hatheer should relish getting back to the turf in the Breeders' Cup. A grass maiden winner at Saratoga two back, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee gained valuable stakes experience last time.

LISA'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy), a fast-closing winner of the La Senorita S. at Retama Park on October 24, will also merit consideration..

Next week: We'll provide our top selections and longshot for each of the two-year-old filly races in the Breeders' Cup.

JUVENILE DIARY

OCTOBER 28, 2009

by Vance Hanson

In this edition, we'll touch on the final preps for the two Breeders' Cup juvenile races for males and our initial observations on the participants exiting those races that are headed to California.

Lookin good: The undefeated LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) ran to expectations in the October 4 Norfolk S. (G1) at 1 1/16 miles over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride and will be a deserving favorite in the November 7 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) over the same course and distance. Getting his preferred tracking trip several lengths off the leaders, the Bob Baffert trainee made a bold three-wide move to seize control with just over a furlong remaining and had little trouble fending off late-comer PULSION (Include) by 1 3/4 lengths.

It was by far the easiest looking victory in the four-race career of Lookin at Lucky, who appears to be going from strength-to-strength and goes for the same jockey/trainer combo that was successful in the same race a year ago with Midshipman (Unbridled's Song). As good as some of the Eastern invaders might be, Lookin at Lucky holds many advantages, not the least of which is experience over the track and a winning attitude.

Pulsion, meanwhile, is a colt whose stock is clearly on the rise, but the bottom line is that he's lost twice to Lookin at Lucky already this season, including their respective debut outing at Hollywood Park in July. Pulsion has progressed very quickly since that 10-length drubbing, but right now the edge remains with Lookin at Lucky.

Norfolk third-placer GALLANT GENT (Yankee Gentleman) has never been worse than third in five starts, and his performance against the top pair was solid as the former claimer was only 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner at the end. Those looking for faults will note the second quarter breather of approximately :24 this pace-presser was allowed to get away with. The situation could be vastly different on Breeders' Cup day. At any rate, we suspect the class simply isn't there to turn the tables on Lookin at Lucky.

DAVE IN DIXIE (Dixie Union), who we pulled for to upset Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk, was last in the early stages before finishing in midpack, 2 1/4 lengths behind the chalk. That was a huge jump in class for the second-time starter, and he could move forward on Breeders' Cup day.

Keeneland Capers: The other significant synthetic prep for the Juvenile was the October 10 Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, where 12-1 chance NOBLE'S PROMISE (Cuvee) sat the garden-trip in fifth early on, advanced to third down the backside, then seized control around the final turn before holding on by a desperate half-length through the short stretch run.

From a BRIS Speed rating perspective, it was an effort right on par with what Lookin at Lucky earned in the Norfolk (94), so there might not be much separating the leading Midwest prospects from those in California. Still, it's hard not to think Lookin at Lucky's home-course advantage will be a major factor in his favor and, from a pedigree perspective, 1 1/16 miles might be the outer limits for Noble's Promise, a son of Cuvee who himself failed to last the trip when beaten a pole in the 2003 Juvenile at Santa Anita.

Perhaps the most intriguing Breeders' Futurity participant is runner-up AIKENITE (Yes It's True), who had to weave his way through a large field that day and in the Hopeful S. (G1) at Saratoga to nab minor shares in both. His pedigree is a bit speed-orientated as well, but that might be offset to some extent by his late-closing tendencies. So far, he's been able to run on anything at any distance -- a useful animal indeed.

Fifth-placer PISCITELLI (Victory Gallop) lost virtually all chance after breaking slow and trailing the 14-horse stampede most of the way, though he did make a notable three-wide move to improve his position late. Third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) in his penultimate start, he figures to develop into a nice three-year-old and has the bloodlines to be an attractive nine-to-10 furlong colt. He seems a cut below going any shorter.

He's no joke: Arguably the most exciting of the Eastern invaders for the Juvenile is D' FUNNYBONE (D'wildcat), who has looked sensational winning the Futurity S. (G2) and Saratoga Special S. (G2) by wide margins in his last two. He and Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil), his conqueror in the July 11 Frank Gomez Memorial, appear to be the two best colts going on dirt, which in the long run is what matters most come classic season next spring. For now, aptitude on Pro-Ride is essential, and like most ship-ins he'll be at a disadvantage compared with the California-based colts.

In addition to being an unknown quantity on synthetic, D' Funnybone also possesses a speed-heavy pedigree, and the Juvenile will mark his first start beyond seven furlongs and around two-turns. Regardless of how he fares in the Breeders' Cup, this is a colt to keep an eye on for next year.

The October 10 Champagne S. (G1), traditionally the strongest of the New York preps, did not appear to be as good as the Futurity this year. Indeed, trainer Rick Dutrow is by-passing the Breeders' Cup with Champagne winner Homeboykris (Roman Ruler), presumably thinking D' Funnybone is the better of the two colts in his barn. Champagne third-placer ASPIRE (Tale of the Cat) appears as if he will be the only one from that race going to California. He's run virtually the same race in winning a maiden and placing second in the Hopeful prior to the Champagne, so progression will be needed on his part to play a role over the Pro-Ride.

Continental flavor: While some are likely to have also been pre-entered to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2), the European contingent for this year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile has to be one of the numerically deepest ever. Coolmore and trainer Aidan O'Brien could be represented by both BEETHOVEN (Oratorio [Ire]), who pulled off a stunning upset of the October 17 Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) in his first race with blinkers, and Phoenix S. (Ire-G1) victor ALFRED NOBEL (Danehill Dancer), whose form is in a bit of a tailspin following a last-place finish in the National S. (Ire-G1) and a fifth in the 22-horse Tattersalls Million.

Most European observers have judged this year's Dewhurst as subpar, and not just because of who won. The continent's leading juvenile is St Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu [Ire]), who skipped the Dewhurst in favor of last weekend's Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1), which he won impressively for O'Brien. That one was never under Breeders' Cup consideration, and the Coolmore folks are clearly focused on getting that one ready for next year's European classics more than those making up their Breeders' Cup contingent.

Godolphin could be represented by French Group 3 winner BUZZWORD (Pivotal), only fifth in the Dewhurst, and listed winner VALE OF YORK (Invincible Spirit), a narrowly beaten second in the Gran Criterium (Ity-G1) in Milan last time.

The more interesting of the Euro invaders are Norfolk S. (Eng-G2) winner RADIOHEAD (Johannesburg), runner-up in the Middle Park S. (Eng-G1) last time and now running under the IEAH banner, and Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Fr-G1) runner-up POUNCED (Rahy), whose pedigree ideally has many non-turf influences. The latter might very well take to Pro-Ride better than some of his overseas peers.

Juvenile Turf: As noted earlier, many of the Europeans mentioned above could wind up choosing the newly upgraded Juvenile Turf instead. Now in its third year of existence, the Juvenile Turf's presence has enticed racetracks throughout North America to schedule more high quality two-year-old races on grass. This more concerted focus is beginning to pay dividends as the American contingent for this year's renewal of the Juvenile Turf is arguably the best yet.

Perhaps the most exciting juvenile in the United States, regardless of surface, is INTERACTIF (Broken Vow), whose push-button acceleration has made him the dominant player in the division with scores in the With Anticipation S. (G3) at Saratoga and Bourbon S. (G3) at Keeneland, the latter over softish ground. He'll probably be the favorite at Santa Anita while cutting back slightly to one mile and, unless he gets hampered with a bad post position, should be the one to fear.

Bourbon runner-up CODOY (Bernstein) was underestimated by the Keeneland public at 57-1 despite some positive turf form at Ellis Park over the summer. He still might not be in the same league as Interactif despite finishing only a length behind that rival, but he's an improving colt nonetheless.

BRIDGETOWN (Speightstown) successfully raided Canada to plunder the riches in the Summer S. (Can-G3) back in September for trainer Ken McPeek, nicely following up on his convincing maiden win in a turf dash at Saratoga. We're not sure his front-running style will be conducive to victory at the Breeders' Cup, however, since the late kick of various Europeans are often hard to fend off in the final quarter-mile.

Owner/breeders Ken and Sarah Ramsey have a plethora of offspring by their champion grass horse Kitten's Joy, and as many as three could join the fray in the Juvenile Turf. Summer runner-up BECKY'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy) has been working spectacularly since arriving at Santa Anita in late September, while KERA'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy) will enter off two wins in as many starts, both on soft ground. The latest was the October 24 El Joven S. at Retama Park, so he will be under the gun returning on short rest.

In addition to Interactif, trainer Todd Pletcher might also be represented by ESKENDEREYA (Giant's Causeway), who took the downgraded Pilgrim S. that was transferred from turf to dirt due to rain. He was a good second in his turf debut at Saratoga and still might be better on that surface.

We'll close this section by mentioning another Coolmore colorbearer, VISCOUNT NELSON (Giant's Causeway), a beautifully-bred colt who is just starting to hit his best stride. A close second last out in the Champagne S. (Eng-G2) at Doncaster, he is a son of Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) winner Imagine (Ire) (Sadler's Wells), who has also produced French Group 1-winning juvenile Horatio Nelson (Danehill), Group 2-winning juvenile Kitty Matcham (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) and her multiple Group 1-placed full brother Red Rock Canyon (Ire).

Considering how the Europeans shipped all the way to California last year and ran one-two in this race, it would be a costly mistake not to take them seriously again regardless of how good some of our domestic stars might appear.

Next week: We'll provide our top three selections and a longshot for each of the Breeders' Cup juvenile races for males in our final installment.

CLASSIC DIARY

OCTOBER 24, 2009

by James Scully

Call it the heart of a line-up. In baseball, the New York Yankees come at you with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Hideki Matsui in the 3-4-5 spot, and the Philadelphia Phillies can counter with their own "Murderers' Row" of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Europe is poised to make a big impact upon this year's Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita, with hot prospects scattered throughout the 14-race program, and three top Classic (G1) contenders -- RIP VAN WINKLE (Galileo [Ire]), MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Danehill Dancer) and TWICE OVER (Observatory) -- represent the heart of the International team.

It will be a popular trifecta box. The 2008 Classic was a humbling experience for the home team as England's Raven's Pass and Ireland's Henrythenavigator proved superior over the Pro-Ride, and the foreign raiders are potentially stronger this time around. The American runners aren't viewed favorably this year. On dirt or synthetics, our three-year-old males are generally considered mediocre, and the older horses are held in lower regard.

America didn't have a horse in contention inside the final furlong last year, and many expect to see more of the same on November 7. Here is a profile of the European Classic contenders:

Rip Van Winkle is the likely Classic favorite for Aidan O'Brien. An impressive 2 1/2-length scorer in the one-mile Sussex S. (Eng-G1) two starts back, the three-year-old colt exits a commendable score in the one-mile Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot, winning by 1 1/4 lengths with plenty left in the tank. In his lone attempt at 10 furlongs, he finished an excellent second to Sea the Stars in the July 4 Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), 4 1/2 lengths clear of Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) hero Conduit (Ire) (Dalakhani) in third.

O'Brien has saddled two Classic runners-up, Henrythenavigator and Giant's Causeway, and Coolmore is on a mission to win the Breeders' Cup's centerpiece event. Rip Van Winkle heads a dynamite one-two punch for the powerful Irish outfit. His BRIS Class ratings will be the best in the field, and stable rider Johnny Murtagh will likely opt for the colt over Mastercraftsman.

Mastercraftsman poses a legitimate threat to his stablemate. Winner of the Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) at the Curragh and St James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot, the O'Brien colt gave Sea the Stars perhaps his biggest tussle when finishing a length second in the Juddmonte International S. (Eng-G1) in August. The champion juvenile owns experience on an all-weather track, tuning up for the Classic with a five-length romp in the Diamond S. (Ire-G3) at Dundalk on October 2, and figures to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance.

Twice Over doesn't have the name recognition of the Coolmore horses, but the English-based colt merits serious respect off his top-class victory in the 1 1/4-mile Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket. The four-year-old couldn't be doing any better for trainer Henry Cecil, winning three straight since receiving a freshening this summer, and the 10-furlong specialist will be a live contender in the Breeders' Cup.

American Pride: The American side is not without hope. SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) padded his growing resume with a superb one-length victory in the October 3 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), becoming the first horse since Easy Goer in 1989 to win the Belmont S. (G1), Travers S. (G1) and Gold Cup, and he earned a whopping 112 BRIS Speed rating in the slop at Belmont Park. His recent Speed numbers are outstanding, and the improving colt is a true 1 1/4-mile performer. We may not have seen his best yet.

In order for Summer Bird to challenge, he'll need to handle the Pro-Ride. That looms as a potential problem, given how Summer Bird was transferred from John Sadler's barn in Southern California after reportedly having trouble with the synthetic track, but he'll have three weeks to get acclimated to the surface and is a different, much more mature horse now than he was last year. The Pro-Ride is potentially a non-issue, but it's difficult to shake the sneaking suspicion that it will hold him back.

QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) will look to get over the hump at 1 1/4 miles while making his first start on a synthetic track in the Breeders' Cup. He's been brilliant at shorter distances, winning one-turn events like the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) and Amsterdam S. (G2) with complete authority, and established himself as the early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite with a smart score in the Florida Derby (G1). Foot problems derailed his Triple Crown plans, and the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has dropped his last two starts at 10 furlongs, finishing second in the Gold Cup and third in the Travers. He's bred to handle the distance, but the dark bay must still prove it.

Note that Quality Road shares the same sire with Raven's Pass, who made his synthetic debut in the Classic and had never won at 1 1/4 miles.

EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat) are Grade 1 turf winners who have shown an affinity for the Pro-Ride. The former recorded a convincing one-length victory in the Santa Anita H. (G1) earlier this year and exits a neck second in Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar. The Helen Pitts-Blasi trainee runs well fresh beneath Julien Leparoux.

Gio Ponti reeled off four straight Grade 1 wins on the sod before coming up a little short in the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1). Ten furlongs is an optimal distance for the four-year-old, who captured the one-mile Sir Beaufort S. (G3) in dramatic, last-to-first fashion over the Pro-Ride last December, and the Christophe Clement charge will be running late under Garrett Gomez.

ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) is as dangerous as any of the American-based horses, but her status remains up in the air. Her connections will decide between a title defense in the Ladies' Classic (G1) or a first meeting against males. The tremendous closer loves the Pro-Ride, winning all three attempts with consummate ease, and she's got nothing left to prove against fillies and mares. She deserves the chance to become the first female Classic winner.

Goodwood effect: GITANO HERNANDO (GB) (Hernando [Fr]) posted an improbable 18-1 upset in the local Classic prep at Oak Tree, the October 10 Goodwood S. (G1), but is not under Breeders' Cup consideration. His connections will point toward the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) in March. Runner-up COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) will need to improve significantly to challenge and is probably better suited to the Dirt Mile (G1). Third-placer RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid) also looks too slow for Classic rivals, and the Marathon would probably be a better fit for the long-distance runner.

MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) provided little reason for optimism with a dull sixth in the Goodwood, his second straight dismal effort over the track following a last-place finish in the 2008 Juvenile (G1), but bettors will be happy to see the popular gelding in the Classic field. Knocked down to 3-1 in the Goodwood, the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner will have his supporters regardless of circumstances.

Next year: ETCHED (Forestry) improved to five-for-five in the United States with a comfortable neck score in the October 16 Meadowlands Cup (G2), and the Godolphin colorbearer is one to watch for next year at Churchill Downs. Bred to excel on both turf and dirt, the long-striding colt appears to own a very bright future if he stays healthy, and he's scheduled to make his next start in the Clark H. (G2) at Churchill on November 27.

Dirt Mile outlook: Godolphin is loaded for the Dirt Mile, with a trio of top contenders in MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled's Song), GIROLAMO (A.P. Indy) and REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor). Midshipman wrapped up championship honors with his victory in the 2008 Juvenile, and the once-beaten colt returned from a near 11-month absence with an encouraging performance at Belmont, netting a 101 BRIS Speed rating for his 3 1/4-length decision over a tough group of allowance/optional claiming rivals.

Jerome H. (G2) winner Girolamo will be the one to beat if he handles his synthetic debut. Since returning to the races in August, he's recorded three sensational wins in New York. Regal Ransom left quite an impression in the Super Derby (G2) last time, winning easily on the front end by 1 1/4 lengths, and the one-mile distance is a good fit for the talented colt. However, Regal Ransom ran poorly over the Pro-Ride in last year's Norfolk S. (G1).

FAMOUS NAME (Dansili [GB]), who exits a narrow third in the 1 1/8-mile Prix Dollar S. (Fr-G2) at Longchamp, rates as the top Euro prospect. The four-year-old colt has turned in several top-class performances at a mile this season for Dermot Weld.

Marathon outlook: The 1 3/4-mile Marathon will feature a deeper field that last year when Zappa (Afternoon Deelites) was the 3-1 second choice among eight rivals. MUHANNAK (Ire) (Chester House), who posted a 12-1 upset in the 2008 inaugural edition, doesn't look like much of a threat in his title defense.

St Leger (Eng-G1) winner MASTERY (Sulamani [Ire]) and King Edward VII (Eng-G2) victor FATHER TIME (Dansili [Ire]) will be the big guns from Europe, and NITE LIGHT (Thunder Gulch) is one of the leading contenders on the American side.

Upcoming: The next installment will feature a final analysis and selections for the Classic, Dirt Mile and Marathon.

SPRINT DIARY

OCTOBER 20, 2009

by Vance Hanson

To paraphrase Samuel Clemens, who knew a little something about horse racing, the reports of ZENSATIONAL's (Unbridled's Song) invincibility have been greatly exaggerated. That thought came to mind in recent weeks as the final preps for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) yielded at least two contenders who might give the heralded three-year-old a serious challenge in the November 7 showcase at Santa Anita. Zensational, who will be the deserving favorite in a few weeks, was given some time off by trainer Bob Baffert following his romp in the September 6 Pat O'Brien S. (G1) and should be fresh and ready to go for what will undoubtedly be his toughest assignment to date.

We'll first to take a look at who we perceive to be Zensational's two main rivals for Breeders' Cup Sprint honors then have an overview of those who will not be making the trek to California.

Gayego: If Zensational is in any way softened up in the early stages of the Sprint, the one he might have to fear most in the final furlong is GAYEGO (Gilded Time), who turned in an effortless rally from near the back to win the October 11 Ancient Title S. (G1), a course-and-distance prep for the Sprint. Gayego appeared to float into contention when making a very wide rally at the top of the stretch and passed rivals with the greatest of ease en route to a 1 1/2-length victory. He earned a BRIS Late Pace rating of 111 and completed his final quarter-mile in the neighborhood of :23.

Call it the Silky Sullivan syndrome, but many racing fans can't get enough of deep-closing sprinters. They're certainly wonderful to behold when they get the job done, but they don't always do. Midnight Lute was successful in the last two editions of the Sprint employing come-from-behind tactics, but I don't think Gayego is in the same class. He does have the versatility to rate closer to the pace, however, so he's far from one-dimensional. Perhaps the most important factor is that he likes the Pro-Ride strip.

Fatal Bullet: Another with a fondness for Santa Anita and synthetics in general is FATAL BULLET (Red Bullet), who possesses a stellar 11-9-2-0 mark on such surfaces. One of those two losses was a strong second to Midnight Lute in last year's Sprint, a performance that tipped the scales in favor of the Reade Baker pupil as Canadian Horse of the Year. The gelding rebounded from a poor effort on dirt in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G2) to win the October 9 Phoenix S. (G3) at Keeneland by a half-length after pressing the pace throughout. He also prompted the pace at Santa Anita a year ago, so the free-running Zensational might have to work hard from the start if both he and Fatal Bullet break alertly.

Another headed to Santa Anita from the Phoenix is CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Ride [Arg]), who fared well in his synthetic debut with a grinding second-place effort. The sophomore, who was elevated to first in the King's Bishop S. (G1) two back, could certainly improve off that race, but still has the look of horse who probably prefers dirt and a seventh furlong.

Staying home: It appears that the surface the Sprint will be run over has the connections of the East Coast's leading dragsters looking elsewhere this fall. As we all know, the decision to hold the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita in consecutive years has hurt the depth of several races over the two-day fixture and the Sprint will not be immune.

The October 3 Vosburgh S. (G1) at Belmont Park, therefore, did not ultimately hold any Breeders' Cup implications. Conducted in a heavy downpour, the Vosburgh served as a rubber match between FABULOUS STRIKE (Smart Strike) and KODIAK KOWBOY (Posse). Each had beaten the other at their preferred distance this year, Fabulous Strike in the six-furlong Vanderbilt and Kodiak Kowboy in the seven-furlong Carter H. (G1), and Fabulous Strike was naturally the odds-on favorite to come out on top in the six-furlong Vosburgh.

Fabulous Strike tracked in second behind Go Go Shoot (Songandaprayer), seized control from that pacesetter and opened up two lengths in midstretch, then began to shorten stride as Kodiak Kowboy hit another gear when rallying in between rivals. At the wire, it was Kodiak Kowboy ahead by a half-length. For Fabulous Strike, it was another tough beat in the Vosburgh over an off-track.

Frankly, we were surprised Kodiak Kowboy displayed that kind of turn of foot going that short. His only stakes score under 6 1/2 furlongs prior to this had been a five-furlong dash at Woodbine in 2007, the year he was named Canada's champion juvenile. The Vosburgh was Kodiak Kowboy's first start back for Steve Asmussen, who trained the colt as a juvenile before being transferred to the soon-to-be-retired Larry Jones, so perhaps the change in training techniques was at least partially responsible.

Neither Kodiak Kowboy nor Fabulous Strike will be headed to Santa Anita. Kodiak Kowboy's main goal is the November 28 Cigar Mile (G1), which Vosburgh third Munnings (Speightstown) is also targeting. Fabulous Strike, who left the Arcadia, California, oval with a bad Pro-Ride aftertaste following last year's Sprint, will also point to dirt stakes on the East Coast. Both are nominated to next Saturday's Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1) at Laurel, and it would be great to see these two titans hook up once more. It's a longshot, but the De Francis might still have Eclipse Awards implications.

Eclipse talk: If Zensational wins the Breeders' Cup Sprint, it's hard to imagine Eclipse Award voters not supporting him overwhelmingly. But what if he loses, and badly? Though seemingly unlikely he would run up the track, stranger things have happened, and it is interesting to look at various hypothetical scenarios.

If Fatal Bullet were to win the Sprint, he would certainly attract plenty of support. But the numerically powerful eastern bloc of Eclipse voters would be hard pressed to overlook his ugly last-place finish in the Vanderbilt. When it comes to dirt, Fatal Bullet virtually can't stand up on it. However, a victory by Gayego would probably satisfy dirt purists as his first stakes win of the season was a Group 3 event on dirt in Dubai. He was also second in the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2).

From this angle, neither Fabulous Strike nor Kodiak Kowboy would have much to lose by contesting the De Francis as a win by either would pad their credentials for Eclipse consideration in the event of goofiness on the Pro-Ride two weeks later. Trying to claim another top-level race would make more sense for Kodiak Kowboy than using the October 31 Bold Ruler H. (G3) as his final Cigar Mile prep, while Fabulous Strike could potentially even up the series with Kodiak Kowboy in what could be a prelude to him carrying everything but the kitchen sink in the Fall Highweight H. (G3) on Thanksgiving Day.

Given the fact a horse campaigned exclusively on dirt was named champion of the division last year despite the results of the Breeders' Cup Sprint, there certainly seems to be a sizable number of voters who would rather not hold their nose to vote for a candidate whose main credentials were achieved exclusively on synthetics. They only need a viable alternative which they can make a valid case for. That's something Messrs. Asmussen and Beattie should keep in mind in the coming days.

Talk of the De Francis would not be complete without mentioning VINEYARD HAVEN (Lido Palace [Chi]), who will be the Godolphin representative for the race. The three-year-old returned from a long spell in August by passing the wire first in the King's Bishop S. (G1), but he was subsequently demoted and placed second for interfering with Capt. Candyman Can. With just two starts this season heading into Laurel's biggest race, Vineyard Haven probably won't be contending for any year-end honors regardless of his performance, but he could certainly seal the championship fates of either or both of the big two with a victory.

Fillies and mares: The newly upgraded Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) might not have a large field when it's renewed for a third time on November 6. Last year's one-two, VENTURA (Chester House) and INDIAN BLESSING (Indian Charlie), will be joined by at most three other legitimate contenders, and whoever makes up the rest of the field will have a tall mountain to scale to earn one of the larger checks.

Ventura will enter the Filly and Mare Sprint off a victory in the Woodbine Mile (Can-G1) on turf, a performance analyzed by my esteemed colleague, Kellie Reilly, in the October 14 edition of her Turf Diary. I would echo her sentiments that Ventura should aim higher and go for the Mile (G1) rather than a repeat score in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Perhaps one reason why the Juddmonte crew and Bobby Frankel are taking the less adventurous route is because Ventura's chances of winning an Eclipse Award as champion female sprinter seem better this year than last, when she was campaigned mostly on turf. Despite defeating Indian Blessing in the Breeders' Cup, that rival wound up as divisional champion due to her body of work on the main track.

Indian Blessing's resume is much thinner heading into the Breeders' Cup this time than it was a year ago. Despite showing signs of her old self in a game win over SARA LOUISE (Malibu Moon) in the September 26 Gallant Bloom H. (G2), we have doubts whether the dual champion has what it takes to erase the entire four-length deficit that existed between her and Ventura a year ago. Indian Blessing, though competent on synthetics, is a dirt horse at heart, while Ventura is an ace going seven furlongs on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride, having also landed the Santa Monica H. (G1) following her Breeders' Cup score.

Sara Louise, the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro), will be in the same boat as stablemate SEVENTH STREET (A.P. Indy), the dual Grade 1 winner, when trying a synthetic surface for the first time next month. Sara Louise ran an outstanding race in defeat when bowing by a head in the Gallant Bloom, and keep in mind it was only her second start of the season following an easy victory in the Victory Ride S. (G3) the previous month. The three-year-old has a very bright future ahead of her, particularly next year when the top two presumably head off to pasture and the Breeders' Cup returns to dirt at Churchill Downs.

On paper, Seventh Street seems oddly placed in this spot. A winner versus lesser going short, she developed this year into one of the better older fillies on dirt in the 8 1/2-to-nine furlong range. She might surprise us, but her connections obviously wanted no part of Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) in the Ladies' Classic and yet still wanted her to compete on racing's biggest stage whether she was entirely suited to the distance and surface or not.

Undoubtedly the biggest threat to Ventura is INFORMED DECISION (Monarchos), who remained undefeated on synthetics when landing the Presque Isle Downs Masters S. (G3) and Thoroughbred Club of America S. (G2) since our last edition. Regular rider Julien Leparoux cut it a bit close in the latter going six furlongs at Keeneland, but she appears far more suited to seven furlongs. She handled the Tapeta at Presque Isle as well as the Polytrack at Keeneland and Arlington she was more familiar with, and that will give her connections confidence as she tries Pro-Ride for the first time in a few weeks.

Of more importance is Informed Decision already has experience beating Ventura, having done so in the April 9 Madison S. (G1) at Keeneland. Though the margin was only a head when in receipt of two pounds, the win is still a plus for Informed Decision as far as Eclipse balloting is concerned, as is her victory on dirt in the Humana Distaff (G1). Three weeks out, these two seem to be to have the best chance at a divisional crown.

The tale on turf: As of this writing, it appears the primary European challengers in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint will be the top two finishers from the October 4 Prix de l'Abbaye (Fr-G1), TOTAL GALLERY (Namid) and FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit). While the former has come on late this season, Fleeting Spirit, who missed by a just a neck in the Prix de l'Abbaye, might still be the more qualified to make her presence felt over Santa Anita's tricky downhill course.

The filly has been remarkably consistent this year, if not a little unlucky. In addition to her narrow loss at Longchamp, Fleeting Spirit went down by less than a length in both the King's Stand S. (Eng-G1) and Haydock Sprint Cup (Eng-G1), but did beat males over a straight six furlongs at Newmarket in the July Cup (Eng-G1). Last year, she was the mild 4-1 favorite in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint but was compromised by a slow start. She closed well to be fourth, beaten 2 1/4 lengths, and that past experience might be of some help on November 7.

If Fleeting Spirit doesn't get the job done, there's still a chance a girl (two, in fact) could do it. Trainer Jenine Sahadi, who trained back-to-back Sprint winners Lit de Justice and Elmhurst in 1996-97, has announced she will point GOTTA HAVE HER (Royal Academy) to the Turf Sprint after whipping California's best turf filly sprinters in Saturday's Senator Ken Maddy H. (G3). The five-year-old mare, who has won or placed in all eight starts this season, won the Palomar H. (G2) two back and is well-versed going down the hillside turf course having also taken the Las Cienegas H. (G3) back in April.

Among males, the home course advantage clearly goes to CALIFORNIA FLAG (Avenue of Flags), who triumphed in the Morvich H. (G3) for the second straight year on opening day of the Oak Tree meet. Though a tiring 10th after dueling early in the Turf Sprint last year, trainer Brian Koriner is reportedly more confident of the gray's form heading into the Turf Sprint than he was a year ago. As for the rest of the Morvich field, runner-up GET FUNKY (Straight Man) ran his best race in a long time when missing by a length, but might find it difficult making the Turf Sprint field with only that one good race this year. DESERT CODE (E Dubai), who upset last year's Turf Sprint at 36-1, ran his third subpar race in a row when seventh in the Morvich. He does not seem as interesting a longshot this time around.

One Californian with longshot appeal is NOBLE COURT (Indian Charlie), who placed behind Zensational in the O'Brien and Triple Bend in his last two. The Ack Ack H. (G3) victor won the course-and-distance Joe Hernandez S. earlier this year and narrowly missed in his only other turf sprint attempt two years ago. The Hernandez yielded Desert Code last year, can lightning strike twice?

The best of the East Coast contingent for the Turf Sprint seems to be CANNONBALL (Catienus), whose exploits in England we covered in a previous edition of the diary. His victory in the September 6 Commentator S. at Saratoga, versus New York-breds, looks better now as runner-up SILVER TIMBER (Prime Timber) returned to win the Woodford S. (G3) by 1 1/4 lengths. That six-year-old veteran also won the Jaipur S. (G3) over the summer, and could not be going any better at the moment. Meanwhile, the candidacies of CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE (War Chant) and JUNGLE WAVE (Hold That Tiger) each took a hit with their loss to Field Commission (Service Stripe) in Saturday's Nearctic S. (Can-G2) at Woodbine.

There's at least a half-dozen specialists who have shared in the spoils in the major turf sprints east of the Mississippi River this year. Some of them will show up at Santa Anita and some won't. If not viable win threats, their presence will at least make the Turf Sprint one of the best betting races of the weekend.

Next up: The final installment of the Sprint Diary will feature our top three selections and a longshot to watch for in the Sprint, Filly and Mare Sprint and Turf Sprint.

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

OCTOBER 17, 2009

The Jockey as a Handicapping Factor

by Steve Zacks

For most of my handicapping career I regarded the jockey factor as incidental. Still I could never escape the feeling after many of the tough beats that are a part of the game that I was the victim of a poor ride, and that maybe the jockey factor really did matter more than I was prepared to give it credit for.

I recently explored the jockey as a handicapping tool to see if a jockey-based method of play could be found or if the jockey factor could aid in deciphering those otherwise unfathomable handicapping puzzles that so often creep into the serial bet sequences.

After spending too many hours and not getting the hoped for results, I did reach several conclusions. The jockey is a very significant factor in the handicapping/decision-making process; one way or another they influence the outcome of every race that is run, either through clever or plain-bad riding.

I did not find a consistent way to use the jockey factor automatically. With the proper judgment, discipline, effort and bankroll, a workable and profitable methodology might be devised that starts (and ends) with the jockey factor. There are in fact winning players who focus on every handicapping tool using them profitably -- be it pace, speed, trainer and work patterns and more.

I assembled and explored dozens of ideas; after paring the numbers and getting them into a manageable format I tested the final group at Del Mar and Saratoga, thinking that if ever riders wanted to do well and gain a higher profile these summer meetings were ideal. You can likely add in any of the other major boutique or high-profile meetings. The longer the meeting, the more likely swings in and out of form are likely to occur.

My judgments were soft and personal, intending to capture the intent of the law. I research by hand and have no programming skills so I am limited in the data I accumulate. I do not track the number of starters, only the winners. I use my powers of observation to make judgments and do not rely just on the simple numbers!

The sample covered the 703 non-steeplechase races run at Del Mar and Saratoga in 2009. Maiden races accounted for 158 of these and 57 of the maiden subset were won by first-time starters. About 15 percent of winners paid $20 or more and almost 40 percent paid off at 5-1 or higher.

Right Questions

If one looks simultaneously through the windows of the trainer, the jockey's agent and the handicapper, you should ask most of the right questions. Some handicappers and race observers might even like to throw the horse into the mix as well.

Sometimes the questions will be hard to answer; that fact alone could send up a warning flag. When you see a top-five rider on a ship-in or from a low-key outfit does it hint of a sharp performance today or does it mean that that outfit has a promising young horse in the barn? What should you think when the leading rider from another circuit ships to ride a seemingly overmatched horse in Saturday's stakes race? Is the horse live, or does the rider simply want to ride at Saratoga?

Finding plausible answers to these questions will help you to decide whether a horse has a legitimate chance. Just as you, the handicapper, wants to win races and cash bets, so do trainers and jockeys. The latter, with their agents, are only as good as the live horses they ride in the right spots. An agent's job is political; his job is as much about managing other horses and future races as it is finding the right horse today.

A trainer might ask:

-- I have a ready horse, who is the best rider I can get?
-- that horse ran big for the bug-boy, maybe I can get a top rider for him today. He is doing really well and might even have a better race in him.
-- I have a really nice two-year-old or a European stakes shipper...who will do me a favor with this one to get on that other later?

An owner might think:

-- I have guests coming on Saturday and want to impress them; which high-profile rider can I get?
-- Do I want to interfere with or make demands on my trainer?

The horse might think like this, and a good trainer should do it for him:

-- I like to run my races in a certain way, which rider do I have confidence in? I need soft hands, I need to be allowed to settle, I hate being inside etc... Which rider will give me the best ride so that I can run my best and win?

An agent has a lot of questions to ask:

-- I have a top rider, which horse do I want to ride in today’s race?
-- Will my steady customers allow me to ride another horse today, so I can ride their new prospect later on? Or will I lose the barn if I go elsewhere today?
-- That horse ran a big race with the 10-pound bug up; there is a good race for him next week; I am open so I will see the trainer to get the mount (for the meet's leading rider).

As a handicapper:

-- Does the outfit care about riders? Does this rider fit their normal profile?
-- I like this horse in a race, which riders would I like to see? And which others will I accept to make a bet?
-- Will this rider make any difference to the way my horse runs today?
-- Does this rider produce wake-up performances when he rides a new horse?
-- What story did a trainer have to give the agent to ride this horse today; after all the last race was not too good, and/or it is taking a big class rise, and/or it is coming off a layoff with a non-descript work tab and so on? If this coincides with a top rider riding for a non-client or non-descript trainer it may take on greater significance and if one of the rider's regular customers has a live horse in the same race maybe this is a live long shot?

Winning Profiles

Here are eight ideas that frequently show up in the profiles of winners. The problem with them is that so many of the horses share one or more of these concepts that it has little direct value in terms of winner selection. Rarely is there only one in a race. What may be the most significant of all is the fact only about 10 percent of the winners had none of the jockey-related factors on their resume for their winning race. More than three-quarters of the winners had more than one factor.

1) Hot Trainer: I wanted to know if trainer status was important. It is. At the recently concluded Saratoga meeting, names such as Alan Jerkens, Bruce Levine and Tom Albertrani were cold as ice. Riders need live and well-meant horses to win races. That is when smart rides really matter.

A trainer was "hot" if at the time the race was run the trainer was (a) one of the meet's leading trainers (b) a high-percentage outfit (20%+) but not on the leading trainers' list due to limited starters or (c) a trainer had won at least one race within a few days of today's race (I chose to leave many doors open; determining when short cycles begin and end is an art form and mostly guesswork). Some stables are historically slow or fast starters or win races in bunches; some just pick their spots. More than 400 winners, or almost 60 percent, were won by jockeys riding for live outfits that fit these parameters.

2) Hot Rider: This is a potent factor as almost 70 percent of the winners at both meetings fit my definition of a hot rider. I included every rider who had won a race within the last three racing days. The condition book influences the flow of races, thus a trainer's or jockey's win patterns. The meet leaders generally qualify as they have recent wins; occasionally a top rider might qualify for some of his wins and not for others; this is frequently the case for trainers. At Saratoga, several top 10 riders went for a week or more without a win. Frequent updating allows you a better understanding of whether fallow periods relate to the rider being cold or the improbable horses he was riding. If you are using this factor and playing 20 tracks, the statistics will likely have to speak for themselves.

Two peculiar situations occur regularly: one is when a certain rider wins three or more races. Twenty-five times a rider scored three wins, and on seven occasions there were four (evenly divided between meets). If you think a rider may be in the midst of one of these days, he may be worth including in serial plays or take a look at the win price and bet any overlays. Occasionally a rider ships in for a day. Jeremy Rose held a hot hand on everything he rode at Saratoga. Justin Sheppard shipped into Lone Star for a day and scored five wins on the card. While these days are usually unpredictable in advance, it can produce dividends to be alert when these events are in progress.

3) Winning Combination: Horse and Rider: The rider has won with the horse in the past. I based this on the last 10 starts; if you have particular local knowledge you may qualify a horse if the rider has won with the horse at any time. Both approaches work well. Based on the races for winners, more than 40 percent of the winners had been ridden by jockeys who had won with them before. Of these winning combinations, 25 percent switched riders for today's race while 75 percent had ridden them last time.

4) Go-To Rider: Trainer and Rider: BRIS reports "trainer with jockey" for the past 60 days in many of their PPs. Many outfits use multiple riders on their winning horses. Your definition of "go-to" will influence the qualifying horses. I included those with a past win on the horse, regardless of the timing as well as those with one win from five or fewer starts, or more than one from six or more starts in the BRIS stats for the last 60 days. Using these definitions, go-to riders rode about 60 percent of the winners.

5) Rider Switch: Excluding debut winners, about half the races were won with a rider switch and half with a returning rider. Did today's winning jockey ride the horse last time, was he riding the horse for the first time or had he ridden the horse in the past and was switching back today? Did the switch entail the move from a lesser rider to a top-five, or go-to rider, or back to a winning combination? This may be one of the more fertile areas for exploration and tinkering for a playable method. This was the best factor for 10-1+ winners; 65 of the 109 had rider switches.

More than a quarter of all winners were repeaters, and 33 percent of them switched riders (many were shipping to a different circuit) and 67 percent were ridden by the same. While one would have expected more of the switches to have come at Saratoga, because of several injuries to top jockeys at Del Mar, they were almost evenly balanced.

Paying attention to a rider switch makes sense, though a switch can also fool you. When a rider vacates a last-out winner or a dropping horse in good form, what does it say about that horse or the other horse he is riding today? Success with this idea is dependent upon making the right judgment. A rider may have ridden a winner for one of his occasional customers and may be vacating that one to ride for one of his regulars today. The new barn may have a promising young horse or a stakes horse to ride later on. What you see in these situations may not always be what you see on the surface.

On the day after the Travers (G1), third-leading rider Rajiv Maragh jumped off back-to-back winner Beneath the Crown (Regal Classic); he left the Timmy Hills horse to ride a non-descript looking, allowance horse, Piazza Di Spagna (Lycius), for Gary Sciacca. Maragh guided him home to a $20+ win mutuel.

On September 18 at Belmont, Kent Desormeaux switched off a live Bill Mott second-time starter Show the Way (Forest Camp) to ride a first-time starter Peteloveshisboots (Texas Glitter) for A.J. Bizelia and Paul Pompa Jr. Desormeaux had ridden several first-time turf winners for Mott at the Spa. Mott's horse won at generous odds. There is a strong likelihood that Peteloveshisboots has a future and might be worth another shot -- especially if Desormeaux rides him back.

Rider switches are a productive source of winners at good prices! Asking why the rider is on the horse today is an interesting approach when a top rider shows up on a morning-line long shot, or for some relatively unknown or low-profile trainer. It is more interesting when one of his prime connections has a seemingly live horse entered in the same event.

6) Top-Five Rider: Statistical: The top five riders frequently win 50 percent of the races at any given meeting. The makeup of the list can be in constant flux as occurred this summer past. The intent of the rule is to focus on riders who are riding well and for live outfits. One can focus on this group.

Most trainers with fit and ready runners try to get the best rider they can especially at these boutique meets where everybody wants to win. A rider attracts attention by winning a lot of races or a high-profile event or two. Then his agent gets more live calls. Success breeds success. Trainers and owners want live riders; agents with hot riders get live mounts far more easily than for a rider with one win from 25 mounts.

The Top Five won close to 50 percent at both meetings. Del Mar totals were influenced by injuries to two top prospects. Saratoga had eight constantly vying for several of the top five spots so counts could vary.

7) A Personal List: One of the ideas I experimented with was to make up a personal list of top riders. This works better if you know the jockey colony well. The list might include some of the top five riders, some of the unappreciated lesser-profile riders and some specialists and is flexible and variable and personal. Where did you put Edgar Prado going into the Saratoga meeting after the rather quiet Belmont? He came alive at Saratoga but has been quiet again back at Belmont. Jose Lezcano was in the top five at the Belmont spring meeting and while he had had good success over the winter at Gulfstream and had made a successful transition to Belmont in the spring it was uncertain that his profile and client base would keep him up top.

If there is a very strong rider colony such as there was at Saratoga, limiting the list to four or five may be self-defeating. Variable lists for fast, slop, turf, routes and sprints will work in some cases. The list changes as riders heat up or cool off. The list is your perception of the various riders on your circuit.

A lesser-known or lower-profile rider with talent who is underappreciated by the betting public is a great addition to your list. A few years back a friend suggested I pay serious attention to Alan Garcia when he came to New York; it did not take long for me to jump on his bandwagon and he has been paying dividends since. While Dominguez was on my radar a long, long time ago, he is too popular at the windows; while you rarely get a generous overlay on him, you do get a reliably good ride very consistently. Maragh, now in the top-five rankings, still rides numerous generously-priced winners.

Due to a couple of accidents involving top riders at Del Mar, the numerical and personal lists were in a state of flux. Alonso Quinonez made my personal list as under-appreciated and rewarded me with several long-shot winners I might not otherwise have played.

Each should bring your own ideas to this process. The more personal the approach the more likely it is to be a little outside the norm and therefore have some wager value attached to it.

8) Top Rider: 10-1 Odds: While it is dependent upon your skill and decision-making, there is one nugget that comes close to a profitable and semi-automatic play. It is to pick one or several top riders (you can also do this with a list of trainers) and play that rider automatically when the horse goes off at odds of 10-1 or higher. To make it automatic you would have to rely on the morning line and live with the fact that some will be bet down too low and that you may miss a few which could turn the angle either positive or negative at any given meeting.

I find that you can select a couple that make the top five list; it is also useful if you have a name or two that flies under the radar, but who you think is capable but underrated.

At Del Mar, leading rider Joel Rosario was productive with four $20 + winners; Tyler Baze had two, Joey Talamo scored six winners mostly near 10-1, Garret Gomez a trio. Two under the radar riders there, Michael Baze won four and Quinonez five to lead the bomb squad.

At the Spa, second leading rider Garcia hit the $20 number five times, as did Javier Castellano and the steady, though not-in-fashion Mike Luzzi, a year-round New York mainstay. Desormeaux won a trio of races at 10-1+ and all were first time on the turf; leading rider Dominguez scored two, Robby Albarado and Maragh had four baggers.

Conclusion

When all is said and done, whether you are an owner, a trainer, or simply a handicapper with an opinion on a horse in a race, your fate ultimately rests with the jockey and the decisions he or she makes during the running of the race.

As a player, no one single factor is likely to frustrate you as much as some of the rides you get! Just how important the jockey factor should be to you is a decision you must make to suit your own game. The better the jockey the lower the odds are likely to be; you must tie your tolerance for poor rides to your desire for higher odds.

In the process of using the jockey factor one must learn to separate the horse and his training from the blame the rider game. Losses are frequently the horse’s fault as it will not run inside or lacks the athleticism/turn-of-foot to explode through the holes when they open. Big stables have a much better chance of schooling their horses in the mornings. Young horses can go out in sets of five or six and can train inside, outside and between others and can learn to take dirt in their faces. If one exercise rider does not get along with a horse, then maybe another will. The smaller stables frequently lack these opportunities and the horses get their in-company experience in their early races. If a trainer knows any of these quirks of a particular horse it is his responsibility to warn the rider of its foibles.

In evaluating horses, rides and trips, one should appreciate all of these factors along with stable intent. If the trainer's win percentage is 12 percent with debut runners and 28 percent with second-time starters, it may not be a bad ride if the horse fails to get there in time. The intent was to give the horse an education.

Five decades of racing experiences in all facets of the game teach that the jockey cannot win the race without the horse. The best horse can win without the best ride and a less-than-best horse can win a lot of races with a good ride and/or when the best horse gets a poor ride. So many races are very contentious that the trip along with the luck of the draw and the various rides in the race determine who is in the photo. Saving ground and expending the horse's energy at the right time are usually crucial. Along with their other skills, the better riders do this more frequently than the less successful ones. A lot has to do with the horses they ride, but the cream normally rises to the top.

Most of the top outfits go out of their way to get top riders, or a rider with a particular style that suits the horse. Why put in so much time and effort and then leave the last detail to chance? When every effort has been made to get a horse properly prepared they tend to go for the best in terms of athletic skill and in-race judgment.

The better riders have better physical skills and a better style of race riding. They make fewer errors in judgment. They try to save ground and save horse and avoid trouble. Generally the top riders make the right decisions more often than do the lesser riders. Thus they get the choice of the better mounts. Simply put: the good jockeys lose fewer races on the best horse. They tend to understand the surface they are riding over, find ways of getting the horse the good trip and avoiding trouble.

Using the rider as an entry point is never an easy game. After two weeks of the Belmont Championship fall meeting, three of the names atop the Saratoga final list are not near the top, while a couple of those who are usually near the top, but who could not be found at the Spa seem to be back riding in better form. Some of this relates to trainers who were not productive at Saratoga but are winning races on Long Island.

Paying particular attention to jockeys, those who are riding well, those who are cold and those who fly beneath the public radar are all worthwhile endeavors that will add to your bottom line.

Unfortunately, there appears to be no easy or simple or work-free way to use the jockey as a key handicapping factor. That said, any time you can get 10-1 or more on a top rider, along with any reason that helps to explain why he is there, you might be on to something. At the current Belmont meeting, the vast majority of the $15 to $40 winners have been ridden by those who are near the top of the jockey standings. Sometimes it works...but alas...not always!

Good Luck!

FILLY & MARE TURF DIARY

OCTOBER 17, 2009

by Kellie Reilly

In this edition, we'll survey five significant preps for the Breeders' Cup. After recapping the three that have taken place recently, we'll cast a glance at the two coming up on Saturday -- the E. P. Taylor S. (Can-G1) at Woodbine and the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland.

Diamonds are forever: That advertising slogan, for all of its philosophical emptiness, offers a handy way to link the outstanding efforts turned in by both the winning DIAMONDRELLA (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) and third-placer FOREVER TOGETHER (Belong to Me) in last Saturday's First Lady S. (G1) at Keeneland.

First, Diamondrella vindicated the decision of her new IEAH Stables ownership to pitch her into this spot. Not only was the Angel Penna Jr. mare unfazed by a two-turn mile, but she passed the test comfortably on soft turf, no less, in a race run at a fast pace for the conditions. As it turned out, the First Lady would have exposed any flaws in this diamond's ability to see out the trip, and she simply sailed through convincingly.

The First Lady was contested at a much quicker tempo than the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) two races later at the same course and distance, registering half-mile and three-quarter splits that were two full seconds faster than the males. Compared to Shadwell winner and fellow IEAH stalwart Court Vision (Gulch), Diamondrella was actually running at a faster clip for longer, as revealed by the Trakus data, yet she was doing it with apparent ease.

Diamondrella's winning move began on the backstretch. Seventh in the early going, just ahead of an unhurried Forever Together, Diamondrella steadily closed into the taxing fractions and improved her position in the strung-out field. Meanwhile, Forever Together continued to lope along in the rear, and that massive deficit -- as many as 20 lengths -- proved too much to overcome. Crucially, at the six-furlong mark, Diamondrella was 12 lengths behind the pacesetter, but five lengths in front of Forever Together.

Turning for home, Diamondrella was still well adrift of the three front runners, but she quickened stylishly to overhaul them in deep stretch. Judging by the chart, she threw in a sub 12-second final furlong to overcome a 6 1/2-length deficit. The Trakus times, which do not comport with the chart, yield a :12.38 final furlong, which would still be commendable in the circumstances. Unlike Court Vision, who was in an all-out stretch duel in the Shadwell, Diamondrella won going away by three-quarters of a length and appeared to be in hand as she crossed the wire. Both clocked a final time of 1:38 3/5, but the First Lady was a more testing race from flag-fall to finish than the Shadwell.

Champion Forever Together was behind horses leaving the far turn and had to switch out wide for the drive, just when Diamondrella was taking off after the leaders. Forever Together accelerated sharply herself to make up a great deal of ground, but she fell a total of 1 1/2 lengths short. While it might be viewed as disappointing that she could not reel in runner-up TIZAQUEENA (Tiznow) and settled for third, Forever Together is not quite the same on soft going. With the ground and race scenario weighted heavily against her, and with Julien Leparoux giving her a patient ride, the Jonathan Sheppard mare did quite well.

In my last diary, I had noted that if Forever Together didn't defend her First Lady title decisively, her Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) credentials would take a hit. In light of the way the First Lady unfolded, however, I must revise and extend my remarks. Forever Together does not enter the Breeders' Cup on a high as she did one year ago, and the fact that she has lost three of her last four -- with her lone victory in that span being a close call in the Diana S. (G1) -- necessarily raises questions. At the same time, extenuating circumstances have arisen in these races, a constellation of factors that are unlikely to repeat themselves in the Filly & Mare Turf at Oak Tree.

Diamondrella, who has now beaten Forever Together twice this season (both times on rain-softened ground), has an array of Breeders' Cup options. Her connections have mentioned the Turf Sprint as a possibility, but there's no guarantee that she'll enjoy the unique downhill course. Should she step way up in trip to 1 1/4 miles for the Filly & Mare Turf? The way she won the First Lady suggests that she stays farther than a mile. With her blistering speed, however, I'd vote for the Mile (G1), even though IEAH has Court Vision earmarked for that race as well. Diamondrella probably has a more devastating late kick than Court Vision. Granted, reigning Mile champion Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) overshadows the race, but in totality, the Mile is not coming up particularly deep.

Hardy perennial: The Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) over 1 1/4 miles at Belmont Park has historically yielded prime Breeders' Cup clues. Despite being contested in bog-like conditions, the October 3 renewal promises to uphold the tradition. The redoubtable PURE CLAN (Pure Prize) stayed on strongly to defeat CRITICISM (GB) (Machiavellian) by 2 3/4 lengths in an eye-catching display. So emphatic was her victory that it prompted her connections -- owner/breeder Lewis Lakin and trainer Bob Holthus -- to rethink their original plans to skip the Breeders' Cup.

Pure Clan enjoyed a better trip than the one she endured in the Beverly D. S. (G1) last time out, where she was far back off a slow pace, came charging too late, and checked in third to DYNAFORCE (Dynaformer). In the Flower Bowl, Leparoux rated Pure Clan in fifth, within striking distance of the crawl. As deliberate as it was, the tempo was still faster than the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) one race later.

For the first six furlongs, the Flower Bowl appeared to be setting up well for Criticism and Dynaforce, the defending champion who had romped in yielding conditions last year. Criticism was in her favorite spot, prompting the pace in second, while Dynaforce was also cruising in third. Then the two parted ways. Criticism moved forward, but Dynaforce mysteriously dropped back on the far turn. It was subsequently reported that Dynaforce threw a shoe about this point in the race, so her dismal sixth can be forgiven.

As Criticism blew past the early leader and surged to a clear lead, Pure Clan was making headway herself, proving that the soft going was no hindrance to her. Striding out powerfully, she caught Criticism in full flight -- not an easy thing to do -- and stamped her authority in no uncertain terms. Pure Clan has now won two top-level events in starkly contrasting conditions: her 2008 American Oaks Invitational (G1) coup came on firm turf at Hollywood. But for a traffic nightmare in last year's Garden City S. (G1) on yielding ground, she would have earned three Grade 1 scores by now.

Pure Clan deserves to line up in the Filly & Mare Turf, where she can erase the unpleasant memory of her trailing throughout in last year's edition. That's the only time she has ever been unplaced from 15 career starts, and it ought to be ignored as a transparently uncharacteristic effort.

With Leparoux already committed to Forever Together in the Breeders' Cup, Daily Racing Form reports that Pure Clan will need a new rider if she runs.

Criticism is expected to go on to the Breeders' Cup. The Tom Albertrani mare is eligible to quicken better on firm turf, but she won't have the luxury of waltzing through the opening stages either. Dynaforce is under consideration for the festivities at Oak Tree. The Bill Mott veteran usually doesn't look as formidable on that kind of ground, though.

Fantasy and reality: Unlike the Flower Bowl, the Yellow Ribbon S. (G1) at Oak Tree has not served as an informative guide to the Breeders' Cup. No Yellow Ribbon winner has gone on to win the Filly & Mare Turf in its 10-year history. Moreover, only two distaffers coming out of the Yellow Ribbon have even placed in the Filly & Mare Turf. (That's whittled down to one if you remove Wait a While, who crossed the wire third in last year's Filly & Mare Turf but was eventually disqualified and placed 10th).

Those are daunting statistics for last Saturday's Yellow Ribbon heroine, MAGICAL FANTASY (Diesis [GB]). Nevertheless, the Southern California star has gone from strength to strength over the course of her four-race winning streak, and she has a serious closing kick, as revealed once again in the Yellow Ribbon. The Paddy Gallagher filly reeled off her final quarter in a little less than :23 to subdue VISIT (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]) by a half-length, with the reliable BLACK MAMBA (NZ) (Black Minnaloushe) a close third.

On paper, that form doesn't look nearly as strong as Diamondrella's, or Forever Together's, or Pure Clan's. On the other hand, Magical Fantasy has projected the image of being in complete control, and possibly she did just enough to win without knocking herself out in her Breeders' Cup prep. She has beaten all comers since returning to the turf in March, and you can't ask for more than that.

Visit clearly benefited from a change in tactics in the Yellow Ribbon. The Bobby Frankel filly has often disappointed with mild rallies from off the pace, and I'm glad that she pressed the pace here. Visit, who was elevated to third in last year's Filly & Mare Turf, can be read as an indicator of how much Magical Fantasy has improved this campaign. Visit defeated Magical Fantasy in the 2008 Matriarch S. (G1), in which they finished third and fourth respectively, but Visit hasn't found a way to beat Magical Fantasy in three tries this season.

E. P. Taylor: Woodbine's 1 1/4-mile feature can produce a major contender for the Breeders' Cup, especially since the European invasion is even stronger here than it is in Saturday's Canadian International (Can-G1). Last year's Oaks (Eng-G1) romper, LOOK HERE (GB) (Hernando [Fr]), has been competing against tough males and may find this a welcome reversion to distaff company. Indeed, I thought she'd stack up pretty well in the Canadian International.

Third to subsequent Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) hero Conduit (Ire) (Dalakhani) in the St Leger (Eng-G1) in her 2008 finale, Look Here opened 2009 with an agonizing loss in a three-way photo in the Coronation Cup (Eng-G1). Who just outfinished her that day? Ask (GB) (Sadler's Wells), who had missed by a nose in the 2007 Canadian International, and beloved bridesmaid Youmzain (Sinndar), who finished runner-up in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) for the third straight year when chasing home Sea the Stars last time out. Look Here wound up third to the top-class Dar Re Mi (Singspiel [Ire]) in the Pretty Polly S. (Ire-G1), where the race didn't set up well for her, and reported home a subpar sixth to Conduit in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1).

Freshened for a couple of months, the Ralph Beckett filly turned in a much more characteristic effort in the September 18 Arc Trial (Eng-G3) at Newbury, only to be nailed late by Doctor Fremantle (Sadler's Wells). The form will be tested when the classy Doctor Fremantle lines up in Saturday's Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket.

RAINBOW VIEW (Dynaformer), last year's European champion two-year-old filly, finally earned her first victory as a sophomore in the September 5 Matron S. (Ire-G1) at Leopardstown. Prior to that breakthrough, the John Gosden filly had been chasing the likes of Midday (Oasis Dream [GB]), Goldikova, Ghanaati (Giant's Causeway) and Sariska (Pivotal). Interestingly, the Augustin Stable homebred is a half-sister to Canadian International contender Just as Well (A.P. Indy), so Saturday could be a banner day for the family.

Rounding out the European contingent are EASTERN ARIA (UAE) (Halling) and LAHALEEB (Ire) (Redback). While Lahaleeb is no stranger to Group 1 company, and finished a close second on bottomless ground in the Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) earlier this season, the Mick Channon trainee has never raced beyond the vicinity of one mile and looks up against it here.

The remarkable Eastern Aria, who will be making her 16th start of the year, has some appeal as a dark horse. She doesn't have the established form in the book, but the tough filly has been improving for trainer Mark Johnston. Eastern Aria captured a listed race at Saint-Cloud in her latest venture, but more tellingly for her E. P. Taylor chances, she was runner-up to the highly-regarded colt Mawatheeq (Danzig) in a Doncaster handicap two back. Mawatheeq went on to land the Cumberland Lodge S. (Eng-G3) in impressive fashion, and he is a supplementary entry to the Champion. Should he do well Saturday morning (U.S. time) at Newmarket, Mawatheeq would make Eastern Aria look better at Woodbine.

[Saturday update: In a form boost for Eastern Aria, Mawatheeq finished a terrific second in the Champion, beaten a half-length after a less than clear trip. The Champion did not give Look Here a form boost, as Doctor Fremantle failed to run up to his best and finished an abysmal 11th, but I wouldn't want to read too much into that.]

The North American-based squadron is led by Juddmonte Farms' homebred TREAT GENTLY (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]), whom I'd covered in a couple of past diaries this season. Based in France last year, the well-bred bay garnered a Group 2 event, beating Dar Re Mi, and crossed the wire third to Zarkava and Dar Re Mi in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1). (Treat Gently was subsequently disqualified from her Vermeille placing). Unfortunately, Treat Gently has managed to race only once since joining Frankel this campaign, but that was a good-looking allowance/optional claiming score at Belmont in July. She was under consideration for the Beverly D., but popped a splint and has not been ready to return until now. On raw talent, Treat Gently is a threat.

SALVE GERMANIA (Ire) (Peintre Celebre), who shocked the Ballston Spa H. (G2) in her U.S. debut, will be making her first start for IEAH Stables and Todd Pletcher. Her European form is a far cry from that of the others in here, and the E. P. Taylor is a tougher test. Still, Salve Germania finished like a freight train at Saratoga, and I don't want to underestimate her again. With a strong performance here, she can book her ticket to the Filly & Mare Turf, and maybe free up Diamondrella for the Mile.

PRINCESS HAYA (Street Cry [Ire]) is in a similar position, since she exits a photo-finish upset of Forever Together in the Canadian S. (Can-G2) over the course. The Michael Matz filly picks up 11 pounds off that surprising victory, though, and faces a tall order to follow up in her 1 1/4-mile debut.

Queen Elizabeth II: Like last year, Keeneland's signature race for the three-year-old filly turf set shapes up as a rematch of the Garden City at Belmont. Garden City winner MISS WORLD (Bernstein), runner-up SHARED ACCOUNT (Pleasantly Perfect) and badly-hampered fourth GOZZIP GIRL (Dynaformer) will renew rivalry in the 1 1/8-mile affair. Gozzip Girl, who had emerged as the divisional leader after her smashing triumph in the American Oaks Invitational, must turn the tables to regain her status. If the Albertrani filly does so, she would probably advance to the Filly & Mare Turf.

Although Pucker Up S. (G3) victress HOT CHA CHA (Cactus Ridge); BLIND DATE (Not for Love), who had beaten Shared Account in the Virginia Oaks (G3) over the summer; and the streaking Woodbine shipper LADY SHAKESPEARE (Theatrical [Ire]) all lend substance to the QEII field, the absences of a few notable names in the division are disappointing.

The only Southern California representative is San Clemente H. (G2) third HAMEILDAEME (GB) (Storming Home [GB]), who could do no better than fourth in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) and Pucker Up. Regrettably, Del Mar Oaks winner INTERNALLYFLAWLESS (Giant's Causeway) opted to take on older rivals in the Yellow Ribbon instead and faded to finish last of eight. WELL MONIED (Maria's Mon), runner-up to Gozzip Girl in the American Oaks and a wide-trip third in the Del Mar Oaks, was bound for the QEII, but the DRF revealed that a lung infection has ruled her out.

In a similar vein, MARAM (Sahm), last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf queen, suffered foot trouble that has altered her fall plans. Rerouted to this past Monday's Pebbles S. at Belmont, the Chad Brown filly was unlucky to be handed her first defeat. Maram got away a step slowly and didn't seem to be traveling all that happily down the backstretch, was fanned out very wide turning for home, but rallied stoutly and just missed to MISS CATALYST (Mr. Greeley) and PULL DANCER (Pulpit).

The lack of international invaders in the QEII is also unfortunate. The QEII has often served up a clash between recently arrived Europeans and the cream of the American crop, but not this time. It was thin in that department last year as well, and we can only hope that this is an accidental blip and not a trend.

On the horizon: Our final installment will revolve around selections for the Filly & Mare Turf.

LADIES' CLASSIC DIARY

OCTOBER 15, 2009

by Jennifer Caldwell

This year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1) is shaping up to be a repeat of 2008, with most of the same cast and crew re-opposing reigning champion ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]). One really interesting contender has been retired, and another major player is now only 50-50 for the 1 1/8-mile event.

Multiple Grade 3 heroine INDESCRIBABLE (Pleasant Tap) has been retired following a surprising ninth-place finish in Saturday's Spinster S. (G1) at Keeneland. The Bill Mott trainee had no problems with the Keeneland Polytrack earlier this season, recording an easy victory in the Doubledogdare S. (G3), then moved over to Arlington Park's version of the all-weather surface to finish third in the Arlington Matron H. (G3). Following a pair of unplaced tries on turf, the five-year-old was put back on a synthetic track, this time Turfway Park's Polytrack, to dominate the September 26 Kentucky Cup Distaff (G3) by 3 1/2 lengths.

The Spinster set up perfectly for Indescribable, as she sat just off the pace while racing wide and clear of any kind of trouble. In the stretch, though, the chestnut mare just didn't have any kick and nearly all of her rivals passed her in the lane.

The official winner of the Spinster, MUSKHA (Empire Maker), is now probably headed to the Ladies' Classic for Bill Mott. The four-year-old lass was forced to hit the brakes when U.S. debuter PROVISO (GB) (Dansili [GB]) suddenly took a sharp right-hand turn in late stretch. Proviso recovered and went on to post the 1 1/4-length score, but the stewards disqualified and placed her second due to the obvious interference. The two could settle the whole matter of who is really best in the Breeders' Cup, as Proviso is under serious consideration following her semi-triumphant U.S. bow.

One who did not do well in the Spinster and is not headed to California is SWIFT TEMPER (Giant's Causeway). The Dale Romans charge was 10th in the 11-horse field having previously captured the Ruffian H. (G1), placed second in the Personal Ensign S. (G1) and scored in the Delaware H. (G2). All of those starts came on dirt tracks, and this chestnut made her disdain for all-weather tracks quite plain in the Spinster.

Another who will more than likely skip the Breeders' Cup trip west is Personal Ensign queen ICON PROJECT (Empire Maker). The Marty Wolfson charge has missed her last two expected starts in the Beldame S. (G1) and Spinster and, according to a report in the Daily Racing Form on Wednesday, bled during a workout at Calder while preparing for that latter race. Wolfson was already concerned about running the four-year-old on the synthetics, and this latest setback will probably put to rest her Ladies' Classic bid.

Division leader: Saturday's Lady's Secret S. (G1) at Santa Anita, the local major prep for the Ladies' Classic, drew the usual suspects and Zenyatta used her normal come-from-behind moved to score by 1 1/4 lengths. While I don't root against the talented mare, I've never really been a fan of the champion and was once again unimpressed by the victory.

Jockey Mike Smith once more described his mount as not even trying, but why would she? Zenyatta was facing horses she's' beaten multiple times and racing on her favored track. It wouldn't surprise me to learn she was tearing the barn down the next day as if she never even raced. The Lady's Secret win now ties Zenyatta with the great Personal Ensign, as both have gone undefeated through 13 starts. That stat alone assures the dark bay a spot in the Hall of Fame, and I do agree she deserves that much.

I just wish her connections had been more adventurous and really allowed Zenyatta to show the world what she could do. Trainer John Shirreffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss have one last chance in the upcoming Breeders' Cup to allow their star to shine, and that's by NOT running her in the Ladies' Classic for the second straight year. Instead, they need to enter her in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) against the boys and give her a chance to finally face a real challenge.

Let's not forget: Godolphin's COCOA BEACH (Chi) (Doneraile Court) and MUSIC NOTE (A.P. Indy) ran second and third, respectively, in last year's Ladies' Classic. That pair is considered likely to renew their rivalry with each other, and Zenyatta, in this year's race. Cocoa Beach got the jump on her stablemate by running third in the Lady's Secret, just a neck back of LETHAL HEAT (Unusual Heat). That was only the fourth start of 2009 for the dark bay mare, who has captured the De La Rose H. and run fourth in both the Heatherten S. and Ballston Spa H. (G2). The latter two races actually took place on turf, but Cocoa Beach is no stranger to running, and winning, on turf, dirt and synthetic.

Music Note has the same number of starts as Cocoa Beach this year, making her four-year-old bow a fifth in the Ogden Phipps H. (G1) on June 13. She's been unstoppable since, capturing the seven-furlong Ballerina S. (G1) and 1 1/8-mile Beldame in easy fashion. The bay lass was facing her elders for the first time in the Ladies' Classic and was making her first start on a synthetic track. She put in an exceptional rally following a five-wide trip to take third. Experience and maturity could be just what Music Note needs to find the winner's circle in the Breeders' Cup.

As for Lethal Heat, who was third in the Del Mar Mile H. (G2) and second in the California Cup Classic against the boys in two of her three races prior to the Lady's Secret, trainer Barry Abrams is considering his options. The surprising, though unlikely, twist is that she'll go in both the Ladies' Classic on November 6 and then once again face the boys in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint on November 7. I really can't see Abrams risking his filly in such a manner, but I do think he could be brave enough to give her another shot at the boys instead of tackling Zenyatta on her preferred surface. If Zenyatta skips the Ladies' Classic, a wide-open scenario develops and Lethal Heat has as much a chance as anybody at the victory. We'll just have to play the waiting game to see which option Abrams goes with.

Two to watch: CARELESS JEWEL (Tapit) could be this year's Music Note. The Josie Carroll three-year-old dominated the Alabama S. (G1) at Saratoga by 11 lengths despite a checking incident on the first turn. The diminutive filly finally settled to the outside of early pacesetter BE FAIR (Exchange Rate), took command on the backstretch and simply drew off. The gray lass is small but spunky, and showed her versatility when leading gate-to-wire in the Cotillion S. (G2) last out. She raced wide throughout and was never in any danger while finishing up 3 1/2 lengths in front of her nearest opponent.

Careless Jewel is back in Canada now, firing bullets over Woodbine's Polytrack, the same surface over which she won two of her first three starts. The Pro-Ride at Santa Anita should not be an obstacle for this talented lass.

LUNA VEGA (Malibu Moon) should be given the chance to try the Ladies' Classic off a nice win in the Molly Pitcher S. (G2) and a third in the Ruffian. Though she was well-beaten in the latter event, Swift Temper and runner-up SEVENTH STREET (Street Cry [Ire]) were the obvious choices. Luna Vega was more than nine lengths in front of the fourth-placer, though, and has experience on all-weather tracks, breaking her maiden at Keeneland last October. The chestnut four-year-old could be reaching her career peak just in time for the Breeders' Cup.

Hard knockers: JUST JENDA (Menifee) is exactly that, a hard-knocking filly who deserves a shot at Breeders' Cup glory. The chestnut miss will be one of the final chances for Larry Jones to get a Breeders' Cup win, as the conditioner has announced he'll retire from training after this year's running. Just Jenda would certainly be a sentimental favorite to win the Ladies' Classic, as she is owned by Jones' wife, Cindy, but the three-year-old also has the talent to get the job done. She dominated in the Serena's Song S. and Monmouth Oaks (G3), both at Monmouth Park.

Following that latter race, Jones indicated he might send Just Jenda to Keeneland to give her a start on a synthetic surface in advance of a possible try in the Breeders' Cup, but instead entered her in the Cotillion, where she ran fourth behind Careless Jewel. Just Jenda was not disgraced in defeat, and should still be given her chance.

GINGER BREW (Milwaukee Brew) was named Canada's 2008 champion three-year-old filly following easy wins in the Woodbine Oaks, Calder Oaks and Jammed Lovely S. as well as a head second against the boys in the Queen's Plate S. She has competed sporadically this year, taking a break between late March and July then returning to finish second in the Dance Smartly S. (Can-G2) on Woodbine's turf. She transferred back to the Polytrack to take her first win of the year in the Belle Mahone S. on August 15 and was fifth in the Spinster.

The four-year-old chestnut has plenty of experience over synthetics thanks to being based at Woodbine. She had been pointing to September 20 Canadian S. (Can-G2) at Woodbine, but her connections opted to go for the Spinster. That decision could set the miss up perfectly for a Breeders' Cup run.

TURF DIARY

OCTOBER 14, 2009

by Kellie Reilly

In this issue, we'll analyze the recent Breeders' Cup preps, first for the Turf (G1) and then for the Mile (G1), and take a look at Saturday's Canadian International (Can-G1).

Hermeneutic of rupture: This introductory phrase, for all of its academic jargon, precisely sums up what happened in the October 3 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) at Belmont Park: an "interpretation" that sees an event as a fundamental break from the past. In the Joe Hirsch, the 43-1 longshot INTERPATATION (Langfuhr) threw in by far the biggest effort of his 50-race career, halted the triumphal progress of divisional leader GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat), and interrupted the smoothly flowing narrative of the season.

As a practical matter, however, the Joe Hirsch should have no bearing on Gio Ponti's standing. The Christophe Clement trainee had already ventured into historic territory by winning four straight Grade 1 turf events, and his chances of extending his streak to five took a hit when downpours pelted the turf. The course condition would not have been a major factor over a lesser trip, but Gio Ponti was making his debut at 1 1/2 miles, and on soft ground, it was a much stiffer test of stamina.

For the first 11 furlongs, everything went according to plan for Gio Ponti. He relaxed off the pace set by the surprising front runner, Interpatation, who broke with all of his past precedent to grab the early lead. Leaving the far turn, Gio Ponti asserted himself and sluiced through the going to take command. The hard-knocking Interpatation looked set to place in the Joe Hirsch for the third straight year.

Then a sea change occurred in midstretch. Gio Ponti began to tire inside the 12th furlong, as if he hit the proverbial brick wall, and his stamina ebbed away. Meanwhile, Interpatation hopped onto his left lead, put his head down and gradually fought back on the inside. The seven-year-old gelding doesn't have a real turn of foot, let alone the turbo speed of Gio Ponti, but the Joe Hirsch demanded something that Interpatation does have: bottomless stamina. In what can only be called a war of attrition, Interpatation prevailed by 1 3/4 lengths and snapped a two-year losing streak.

His unlikely success has the quality of a fable, complete with a moral lesson. Owner Elliot Mavorah, following the guidance of his Orthodox rabbi, instructed trainer Robert Barbara not to work Interpatation on Yom Kippur. For his piety in observing the holy day, Mavorah and Interpatation were rewarded with a fantastic victory.

Neither of the top two is headed to the November 7 Breeders' Cup Turf, for good reason. Interpatation would be out of his element in that environment. Gio Ponti would probably handle 1 1/2 miles on Santa Anita's firm turf, but an assault on the 1 1/4-mile Classic (G1) has much more upside for him. He should have already sewn up the Eclipse Award as champion turf horse, so the Turf wouldn't bolster his case that much. Given the flux of the older male division, however, and the fact that the Classic is contested on the synthetic Pro-Ride, Gio Ponti could enter calculations for champion older male if he succeeds in that spot. Indeed, had Clement not already announced that the Classic was his aim, I would have argued for it. This "nothing ventured, nothing gained" spirit is to be applauded.

As a footnote to the Joe Hirsch, TELLING (A.P. Indy) proved that his Sword Dancer Invitational (G1) upset was no fluke with a solid effort. After making an eye-catching move on the far turn, Telling lugged in, then drifted out, possibly trying to find his footing on the ground, and crossed the wire in third. In his wandering around, Telling compromised defending champion GRAND COUTURIER (GB) (Grand Lodge), and was subsequently demoted and placed fourth. While the disqualification was warranted, Telling was finishing in front of Grand Couturier for the second consecutive time. I think that Telling deserves a shot at the Turf.

Weather refugee: Thankfully, PRESIOUS PASSION (Royal Anthem) was scratched from mission impossible in the Joe Hirsch, where he would have come apart on the ground. The Mary Hartmann charge headed to Oak Tree for the firm turf on offer in Sunday's Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship (G1), and the flamboyant performer took full advantage to score by 2 1/2 lengths. The scratch of the speedy BLACK ASTOR (Black Minnaloushe) ensured that Presious Passion would enjoy an uncontested lead, but it's highly doubtful that Black Astor would have compromised him in any meaningful way.

Without Black Astor to force the issue, Presious Passion got away with relatively moderate fractions. His slowest split was his opening quarter in :24 1/5. Presious Passion reeled off his second quarter in :23 1/5, and after posting :24 for his third quarter, he sped up to deliver the coup de grace. His fourth quarter was achieved in :23 4/5, and he came home his final quarter in :23 3/5 to complete 1 1/4 miles in 1:59. Nor did he want to stop there, for he continued to gallop out vigorously, and regular rider Elvis Trujillo had a hard time pulling him up on the backstretch.

Admittedly, his Clement Hirsch rivals left something to be desired, and Presious Passion was entitled to outclass the usual suspects in Southern California. A far stronger group will await him in the Breeders' Cup Turf, when he must carry that speed another two furlongs. Hartmann believes that the longer distance suits him best, but his most notable victories at 1 1/2 miles have come at the Grade 2 level at Gulfstream and Calder, and the Breeders' Cup is a league apart. On the other hand, the fact that Presious Passion was essentially rating on the front end in the Clement Hirsch, and not running off at a wild pace and hanging on for dear life, suggests that he is learning to harness that speed.

It's (not) just as well: The September 20 Northern Dancer Turf S. (Can-G1) at Woodbine yielded a messy result, clouded by interference and one high-profile disqualification. The Neil Drysdale-trained MARSH SIDE (Gone West) enjoyed the picture-perfect trip, sitting in second off slow fractions, and capitalized on this favorable set-up to cross the wire a half-length in front of the rallying JUST AS WELL (A.P. Indy). Unfortunately, Marsh Side hung to his left across the course during the stretch run. To his inside, QUIJANO (Ger) (Acatenango) also drifted inward, and eventually came over into the path of defending champion CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) (Danehill), shutting him off just when he was making headway. Champs Elysees was unable to regroup and wound up fourth.

Who was guilty of interfering with Champs Elysees? Jockey Garrett Gomez claimed foul against both Marsh Side and Quijano, the unofficial first- and third-place finishers. The stewards, however, ruled that Marsh Side herded and interfered with Quijano, who was helplessly forced to interfere with Champs Elysees. Convicting Marsh Side, they disqualified him and placed him fourth. Just as Well was awarded the victory, and Quijano was promoted to second.

While this was an extremely tough call, I'm not convinced that Quijano was an innocent bystander. Perhaps his leftward motion was influenced by Marsh Side at first, but later in the drive, Quijano appeared to be drifting in willingly. Rather than being crowded by Marsh Side, and hanging left as a reaction, it looked to me that he was all too happy to drift in himself under Andrasch Starke's vigorous right-handed whip. Indeed, after Quijano crossed over on Champs Elysees, Starke switched to a left-handed stick, to straighten his mount's course. Might that imply that Quijano was hanging of his own accord? If so, then he obviously shouldn't have been rewarded, while Marsh Side was punished, especially since it was Quijano who cut off Champs Elysees. Marsh Side's owner, Robert Evans, is appealing the decision.

Amid the fog of the Northern Dancer battle, two things are crystal clear. First, Just as Well's monumental performance on the step up to 1 1/2 miles must not be overlooked. Despite lagging far off the early crawl, the Jonathan Sheppard charge produced a furious late rush to miss narrowly. Considering that Marsh Side flew his final quarter in :22 4/5, Just as Well must have clocked approximately :21 4/5, at one point altering course to the outside, to make up as much ground as he did. Second, the Northern Dancer paid a handsome compliment to Gio Ponti, for the first three past the post had all been beaten by the divisional leader this summer.

Vivat Ventura: The September 20 Woodbine Mile (Can-G1) was refreshingly unambiguous, as VENTURA (Chester House) was at her brilliant best, despite reappearing from a five-month layoff. After traveling with conspicuous ease near the rear of the field early, on a tight rein, the Bobby Frankel mare exploded through the stretch to win by a cozy length. Ventura thereby ranks as the first distaffer to take the Woodbine Mile in its 13-year history.

Her triumph was not only visually impressive; it stands up to scrutiny on the clock as well. By rattling off her final quarter in a shade less than :22, she set a new stakes record time of 1:32.04, easily eclipsing the old stakes mark of 1:32.72 established by Soaring Free in 2004.

With her outstanding acceleration, Ventura would be a prime contender for the Breeders' Cup Mile. Alas, instead of seeking new worlds to conquer, she's mounting a title defense in the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) on the Pro-Ride. I understand the argument that she is more effective around one turn, but in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile H. (G1) in March at Santa Anita, run over the same course and distance as the Breeders' Cup Mile, Ventura was beaten on the wire by Gio Ponti. Is that not enough of a recommendation to press ahead?

FERNELEY (Ire) (Ishiguru), a gallant runner-up to Ventura in the Woodbine Mile, will represent the form in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Originally expected to swerve the Breeders' Cup because he was not nominated as a foal, Ferneley will be made eligible now, for the requisite fee.

Ferneley certainly exceeded my expectations at Woodbine. He had the speed and dexterity to take a gap as soon as it appeared, and although he was outkicked by Ventura, he still drew a convincing three lengths clear of third-placer STERWINS (Runaway Groom). Ferneley turned in a high-class performance, arguably the finest of his career, and vindicated trainer Ben Cecil's belief that he would find Woodbine more congenial than Del Mar. That's the rub, however, regarding his Breeders' Cup hopes. Will he duplicate his Woodbine effort at Santa Anita, or relapse to his less-than-spectacular ways back home in Southern California?

Back in the game: As mentioned in a few diary editions earlier this season, COURT VISION (Gulch) had been an archrival of Gio Ponti last year, but the two had gone in opposite directions in 2009. Court Vision's four-year-old campaign had started out frustrating, and it went downhill from there, prompting a trainer switch from Bill Mott to Rick Dutrow. What no one knew at the time, though, was that the royally-bred dark bay was bothered by an ascended testicle. According to Daily Racing Form, the problem was finally diagnosed, Court Vision had surgery, and the IEAH Stables colorbearer subsequently perked up in his training.

Now healthy, Court Vision rebounded to capture Saturday's Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) in his debut for Dutrow, rescuing his season and putting himself squarely in contention for the Breeders' Cup Mile. Interestingly, he was dropping back to a mile for the first time since his juvenile days, when he landed the Iroquois S. (G3) on the dirt at Churchill Downs. But because the Keeneland turf came up soft for the Shadwell, it may have played to the strengths of a horse who stays farther, so it's difficult to draw any firm conclusions about his preferred trip.

Court Vision was reserved in fourth early, not far off the slow pace set by KARELIAN (Bertrando), who was returning from a 10-month layoff. When Karelian injected a serious dose of speed turning for home, blitzing his seventh furlong in :11 3/5, Court Vision was covering that move and gaining ground himself. The two battled heads apart through a final furlong in :11 4/5, with Karelian all heart to hold on and Court Vision every bit as implacable on the outside. Court Vision proved the stronger by a nose, but Karelian performed heroically in defeat.

The final time for the Shadwell -- 1:38 3/5 -- was virtually identical to that posted by IEAH's new recruit DIAMONDRELLA (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) in the First Lady S. (G1) two races earlier over the same course and distance. Diamondrella came home in roughly :11 4/5 herself. (Her Breeders' Cup objective is to be determined, as will be discussed in the upcoming Filly & Mare Turf diary).

Conditions will be markedly different for Court Vision in the Breeders' Cup Mile, which will demand razor-sharp speed on a firm course, but he will give IEAH a major player in the event for the third straight year. It is ironic that he should inherit the mantle of his stablemate, the now-sidelined Kip Deville (Kipling), who won the 2007 Mile and finished runner-up last year: Court Vision is a full brother to Kip Deville's sire, Kipling.

Other than marking the bona fide renaissance of Court Vision, the Shadwell is problematic because of the soft ground. Sterwins did not flatter the Woodbine form when running a non-threatening fifth, and more tellingly, JUSTENUFFHUMOR (Distorted Humor) never got involved from off the pace in sixth. The Kiaran McLaughlin charge was suffering his first loss from seven turf starts, and it goes without saying that this race is hardly a reflection of his ability. By the same token, Justenuffhumor may have found a mile a bit too short for him, even in the best of circumstances, and that remains an open question after the Shadwell.

Cowboy's at home out West: While Justenuffhumor was flailing away at Keeneland, his old victim COWBOY CAL (Giant's Causeway) paid him a compliment with a front-running score in Saturday's Oak Tree Mile (G2). The Todd Pletcher trainee had been beaten by Justenuffhumor twice in a row at Saratoga, his second loss coming in the Bernard Baruch H. (G2) last time out, when he was nailed approaching the wire.

Cowboy Cal didn't have anyone of that stature gunning for him at Oak Tree, and on the slight cutback to a mile, he underscored once again how tough a customer he is. Moreover, like fellow East Coast shipper Presious Passion in the Clement Hirsch, he exposed the existential weakness of the Southern California turf set.

After shrugging off initial pressure from MONTEREY JAZZ (Thunderello), who ultimately faded in the stretch, Cowboy Cal kicked clear and was always doing enough to hold off Eddie Read (G1) winner GLOBAL HUNTER (Arg) (Jade Hunter) by three-quarters of a length. He turned in a sharp final time of 1:33 over the same course and distance as the Breeders' Cup Mile. While not the most naturally gifted of Mile contenders, Cowboy Cal is game and genuine, and it would be no surprise if he fights on for a minor award on the big day.

A tale of three trips: At this writing, it's unclear whether last Saturday's Jamaica H. (G1) at Belmont will have any Breeders' Cup implications, and given how the race unfolded, such clues may not be readily decipherable anyway. TAKE THE POINTS (Even the Score) followed up his photo-finish victory in the Secretariat S. (G1) with another narrow decision in the Jamaica, driving to win by a head from STRAIGHT STORY (Giant's Causeway), with COURAGEOUS CAT (Storm Cat) three-quarters of a length back in third.

Take the Points deserves credit for his willing attitude, and the Pletcher colt has been improving since Straight Story defeated him twice at Colonial over the summer. On the other hand, Take the Points was also the beneficiary of the best trip in the Jamaica, courtesy of Edgar Prado. The same could not be said of his opponents. Straight Story, who has done all of his best work up on the pace, flashed speed from the rail in the opening strides, only to be wrangled back under stout restraint. Meanwhile, Courageous Cat went to the front, wound up being engaged by a longshot, eased back, was pocketed turning for home, and didn't deliver his rally until the winner had already flown.

Take the Points was rank early, but Prado got him into the ideal stalking position on the outside, and made his winning move on the far turn. Straight Story tried to play the role of hunter, and he threw down a dangerous challenge to Take the Points, but the winner knuckled down and repelled him. I think that Straight Story wasn't best served by his tactics on the day. Still, Take the Points was spotting him four pounds as the 121-pound highweight.

The November 29 Hollywood Derby (G1) is the logical port of call for the principals, but Pletcher left the door open to supplementing Take the Points to the Breeders' Cup.

Canadian International: The Woodbine turf season reaches its apex on Saturday with this 1 1/2-mile event, which serves up an ever-intriguing clash of North Americans and European invaders. The Canadian International is also the last major prep for the Breeders' Cup Turf, but hardly any of its contenders are contemplating Santa Anita at the moment.

The top four from the aforementioned Northern Dancer – Marsh Side, Just as Well, Quijano and Champs Elysees – will come to blows again, and hopefully the outcome will be decided on the course, not in the stewards' room.

Marsh Side, the defending Canadian International champion, will try to become the first horse since George Royal (1965-66) to win back-to-back runnings. (Majesty's Prince was a two-time hero, but not consecutively, in 1982 and 1984).

The placegetters from last year will try to improve on those performances this time around. SPICE ROUTE (GB) (King's Best), the runner-up in 2008, has not run since his subpar fifth in the July 26 Nijinsky S. (Can-G2) on soft ground. The Roger Attfield charge exited the Nijinsky with body soreness and pulled muscles, but is pleasing his connections in advance of his return, according to the DRF.

Champs Elysees, who finished third to Marsh Side and Spice Route last year, will try to go out in a blaze of glory in his final career start. The Juddmonte Farms homebred is scheduled to retire to stud afterward. Quijano, a disappointing ninth here in 2008, had been a solid third in the 2007 Canadian International.

Of the three newly arrived European shippers, BUCCELLATI (GB) (Soviet Star) looks particularly dangerous as an under-the-radar type. The Andrew Balding charge is only a multiple Group 3 winner on paper, but that obscures a few fine efforts at a higher level. Sixth in last December's Hong Kong Vase (HK-G1), beaten all of two lengths by Doctor Dino (Fr), Buccellati opened 2009 with a third to the classy Tartan Bearer (Spectrum) and Pipedreamer (Selkirk) in the Gordon Richards S. (Eng-G3).

After a front-running success through a risible pace in the Ormonde S. (Eng-G3), Buccellati stepped up in class in the Coronation Cup (Eng-G1) in June, where he was making a good-looking move, only to be badly hampered and practically eased. Injured in the wake of the scuffle, Buccellati was sidelined until September. He returned to finish last of four in the Prix Foy (Fr-G2), beaten fewer than four lengths by the likes of Spanish Moon (El Prado [Ire]) and Vision d'Etat (Chichicastenango) in what was just a tightener for the Canadian International.

The Mark Johnston-trained JUKEBOX JURY (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) will try to become the first three-year-old to win the Canadian International since Phoenix Reach (Ire), who scored for Buccellati's conditioner Balding in 2003. The gray colt is a real battler, as illustrated by his photo-finish successes over older horses in the Preis von Europa (Ger-G1) and Grand Prix de Deauville (Fr-G2) in his last two outings. Earlier in the season, Jukebox Jury defeated Godolphin's useful Campanologist (Kingmambo) in the Rose of Lancaster S. (Eng-G3), and he had been sixth to the all-conquering Sea the Stars in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1).

ALLIED POWERS (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) is the least accomplished of the trio, but the Michael Bell trainee was second to Godolphin's well-regarded Kirklees (Jade Robbery) in the York S. (Eng-G2) three starts back. If Kirklees fares well in the Caulfield Cup (Aus-G1) on Friday night U.S. time (Saturday in Australia), it could boost Allied Powers' stock.

On the horizon: The year's final issue will feature selections for the Breeders' Cup Turf and Mile.

COMMENTARY

OCTOBER 6, 2009

A horse for all seasons

by Vance Hanson

I've never had the privilege of meeting or speaking to legendary Irish horseman John Oxx and I suspect I never will. If given the opportunity, however, I would personally thank him for his role in reassuring me not once but twice over the past decade that an affliction that's lasted with me for nearly a quarter-century is best left uncured.

Admittedly a hard person to please when it comes to the relative merits of the modern Thoroughbred, few runners of recent years have left with me the impression of being the equal of, or better than, the champions I witnessed during my formative years as a spectator in the mid-to-late 1980s. Indeed, I've been more apt to marvel and wax poetic about the immortals whose careers ended long before I drew my first earthly breath. Thankfully, 21st-century technology has allowed me to escape the often dreary American racing landscape in search of equine heroes from far distant lands, rejuvenating my compulsive love for the Thoroughbred sport.

The first foreign-based runner to win my heart was Sinndar, Oxx's first superstar colt whom I selected to win the 2000 Epsom Derby (Eng-G1). As exhilarating as it was to watch the Aga Khan's homebred come through in the Blue Riband via live satellite transmission at Keeneland, crass commercialism dampened the mood somewhat as no wagering on the race was available and the sweetest 7-1 prime bet of the year had passed me by like a thief in the night.

Despite not being paid for my profound forecast, there was something about Sinndar's performance that suggested he was more than just an average Derby winner. He was now "my" horse and I faithfully followed the remainder of his brief career with gusto, bragging to anyone who would listen how I spotted greatness earlier than most. My bravado was vindicated following Sinndar's tour-de-force romp in the Irish Derby (Ire-G1). After an easy prep in the Prix Niel (Fr-G2), the mighty bay was a smart winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), a race I was able to wager a few bucks on. He was nowhere near 7-1, but at least he wasn't the favorite.

I still hold firm to the belief that Sinndar is one of the more underrated European champions of the past generation. Unfortunately, a lot of the headlines that would have gone his way that season went instead to Giant's Causeway, who reeled off five consecutive Group 1 wins and won the admiration of American racing fans with his life-and-death stretch duel with Tiznow in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) in his one and only start on dirt. There's still no doubt in my mind who the better three-year-old was, though in reality it's an apples-and-oranges debate. Was the 12-furlong specialist better or the "Iron Horse" who was tough as nails in the eight-to-10 furlong range?

There is no debate in the year 2009. SEA THE STARS (Cape Cross [Ire]) is the horse for all seasons and distances.

While most American horseplayers were trying to make heads or tails of the Kentucky Derby (G1) in the days leading up to the event, in retrospect a futile endeavor for most, I blocked out time in my busy schedule to study the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1). Enlightened business practices in the United States now allow wagering on nearly every important English horse race, and it has now become ritual for international racing fans to focus in on Newmarket on the morning of the first Saturday in May.

You can probably guess where this is going. Yes, I was on the Sea the Stars bandwagon early. As in 9-1 in the Two Thousand Guineas early. Since honesty is the best policy in such matters, I must admit to betting another horse in addition to Sea the Stars, hedging as a result of being somewhat indecisive. But I have witnesses who can confirm I verbally committed to Sea the Stars 12 hours or so before post time.

Besides the value on the board, what did I like about Sea the Stars? Two things. It's hard to overlook a pedigree like his, being out of the blue hen Urban Sea (Miswaki) who had already produced a superstar in Galileo (Ire) (Sadler's Wells). Here was a colt who, though not guaranteed to stay, had the genetic hoofprint to be absolutely any kind. The clincher for me was that he was trained by Oxx, a hero from the Sinndar days. Sea the Stars could not have been in more capable hands.

My love affair with Sea the Stars this season has followed the same course as that of Sinndar nine years ago. Though it was no longer possible to profit financially from him following the Epsom Derby, commercialism ultimately yields to sport when we're talking about horses of this caliber. Fans of Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro), of which I am also one, should understand this clearly.

I can debate the relative merits of major American champions from about 1950 onwards, but will defer to the more knowledgeable with respect to where Sea the Stars belongs in the pantheon of European champions of the past half-century. I'm familiar with the accomplishments of Mill Reef, Nijinsky II, Dancing Brave and *Sea-Bird, and a consensus is developing that Sea the Stars has joined that exalted company following his victory in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

It's been a certainty for many months that Sea the Stars would not race beyond this year. While I can accept the point that he has nothing more to prove, it would be great fun to see him add his name to the roster of such races as the Coronation Cup (Eng-G1), Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1), King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Fr-G1), or become a two-time winner of the Arc.

If the retirement of Sea the Stars is imminent, it is suggested here that he exit the stage on top rather than run in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). For months, American commentators have been clamoring for the presence of Sea the Stars in a Classic already devoid of probable Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and potentially comprised of what can be delicately labeled a subpar group of older males. Some went so far as to pray for a deluge of rain before the Arc, hoping Oxx would then forfeit Europe's year-end championship and send the colt instead to California. To wish that Sea the Stars' legacy not be decided on Longchamp's famous French turf in what is annually the best race on the European continent was parochialism of the worst kind.

Other than for material gain, there is virtually no reason for Sea the Stars to contest the Breeders' Cup Classic. Some have taken the results of last year's Classic contested on Pro-Ride, which was dominated by Europeans, and proclaimed the surface and distance tailor-made for Sea the Stars. Besides being purely speculative, that belief overlooks the fact that Sea the Stars' reputation would not be appreciably enhanced by defeating several of the same foes he's already proven himself superior to in Europe, or American runners nowhere near his level of class. After all he's accomplished this year, would it be fair to Sea the Stars to ship him thousands of miles to run over a surface he has no experience over?

This is not to say I'm totally against clashes of an international flavor. But there has to be a modicum of common sense about when and where these should occur. For example, running Giant's Causeway in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs made sense as he was a son of Storm Cat and Mariah's Storm (Rahy), who captured the Falls City H. (G3) over the same track. In contrast, neither attempt at the same race by George Washington (Ire) in 2006-07 seemed proper given the lopsided amount of turf blood flowing through his veins (outweighing the presence of his broodmare sire Alysheba) and his relative inexperience at 1 1/4 miles. Regardless of a single afternoon's results on Pro-Ride last October, there is absolutely nothing in his pedigree to suggest that Sea the Stars should run on anything but turf.

While every race won by Sea the Stars this season will forever be emblazoned on my mind, perhaps the most indelible memory of this historic campaign were words uttered by Oxx that described the character and majesty of this special colt. Speaking to Racing Post's Brough Scott in July, Oxx said:

"As everyone has seen, he has a terrific big-race temperament, but when he goes in to the racecourse stables he will roar like a stallion. It's a territorial thing. Once he has established who is boss, he's all right."

That's Sea the Stars. Truly the king of the herd.

INTERNATIONAL DIARY

OCTOBER 3, 2009

by Kellie Reilly

Trainer Aidan O'Brien may be feeling like an Austrian general after the Battle of Austerlitz. No matter the dispositions of his troops, or the intricate designs of his tactics as he envisions them on the map, his forces are still getting smashed to pieces by Napoleon, or in this case, SEA THE STARS (Cape Cross [Ire]). Like the Corsican luring on the Allies in advance of Austerlitz, Sea the Stars led us into wondering whether he might be in a precarious position heading into the September 5 Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1). After all, had he not just scraped home in the Juddmonte International (Eng-G1) at York?

Like Napoleon in his finest hour, Sea the Stars sprang the trap to perfection in the Irish Champion. Far from losing his edge, as his life-and-death Juddmonte struggle may have implied, the John Oxx colt was in fact brimming with energy as he posted his most dominating victory of the season.

The indications were plain to see early on at Leopardstown. While Sea the Stars had been uncharacteristically quiet in the opening stages at York, he was very much into the bridle right out of the gate in the Irish Champion. After giving Mick Kinane a well-mannered tug, Sea the Stars settled well off the taxing pace dictated by the Ballydoyle rabbits.

The O'Brien-trained MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Danehill Dancer) tracked his pacemakers in third for much of the way, gaining on them as they weakened on the turn. Meanwhile, his stablemate FAME AND GLORY (Montjeu [Ire]), who had been reserved much farther back -- even behind Sea the Stars -- tried to get first run on his archrival. Under a heady Johnny Murtagh ride, Fame and Glory launched his move early, passing an on-hold Sea the Stars and advancing to join Mastercraftsman turning for home.

It would have been a brilliant maneuver, if Fame and Glory had the speed to open up enough of an advantage, and if Sea the Stars were a bit flat. Unfortunately for Ballydoyle, neither was true. As Fame and Glory seized command from Mastercraftsman at the top of the stretch, Sea the Stars was smoothly cantering up behind him, just waiting for Kinane to turn him loose. Fame and Glory never really got much of a head start. Judging by the way Sea the Stars took off on cue, it wouldn't have mattered even if Fame and Glory had been able build up a couple of lengths' separation.

Unlike in the Juddmonte, Sea the Stars' response was immediate, and Fame and Glory's doom was sealed. Rapidly striking the front, Sea the Stars did not bother to hang around for his opponent, but surged clear and won well in hand by 2 1/2 lengths. Also unlike the Juddmonte, where his ears were pinned for some time past the wire, here they shot up right away, as if to reinforce how easy a stroll it had been.

Fame and Glory was made to look like a one-paced, 1 1/2-mile horse in this 1 1/4-mile race. But that was only in comparison to the all-conquering winner, for Fame and Glory was well clear of the rest. Mastercraftsman, who had forced Sea the Stars to go all out at York, was another 2 1/2 lengths back in third. The much greater margin of defeat here was partly attributable to the heck-bent-for-leather pace, but I'm still convinced that Sea the Stars just wasn't himself at York. The real Sea the Stars beat Mastercraftsman pointless in the Irish Champion.

Other than demolishing any speculation regarding his condition at this point in an arduous campaign, however, the Irish Champion did not tell us anything terribly new. Since taking the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) and Derby (Eng-G1), Sea the Stars has now won three straight contests in the vicinity of 1 1/4 miles -- the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), the Juddmonte and now the Irish Champion. Judging by what we saw of him earlier in the season, he was entitled to win these last two.

Perhaps the one intriguing fact to take away from the Irish Champion is that Sea the Stars flew on the good-to-yielding ground. As his juvenile races suggested, he can handle some moisture in the ground -- maybe not an inordinate amount, but some give in the ground clearly didn't inconvenience him here.

Might we have learned something more about Sea the Stars if he had contested the September 12 St Leger (Eng-G1), where the elusive English Triple Crown was his for the taking? I doubt it, considering how the world's oldest classic actually shaped up. There were no scintillating performances that would have tested Sea the Stars, and even if he didn't truly stay the extended 1 3/4-mile trip, he would probably have won on class alone -- exactly like Nijinsky II, the last English Triple Crown winner, in 1970. And also like Nijinsky, the effort would have left its mark.

Turning to those who actually took part in the St Leger, Godolphin's KITE WOOD (Galileo [Ire]) had every chance to win, and actually held a narrow lead in the stretch, but he could not fend off the persistent challenge of his stablemate MASTERY (Sulamani [Ire]), who proved the stronger of the two in the waning yards. Godolphin's second string edged away by three-quarters of a length.

My knee-jerk reaction was that Mastery may end up rating as the least consequential St Leger winner since Bollin Eric in 2002, but only time will tell if that verdict is too harsh. Third-place finisher MONITOR CLOSELY (Oasis Dream [GB]) had convincingly defeated Mastery in the Great Voltigeur S. (Eng-G2), and back at 12 furlongs, he's likely to do so again. Sea the Stars' stablemate MOURAYAN (Alhaarth) was the victim of a terrible trip in the St Leger and ultimately checked in fifth. With a trouble-free passage, he would have finished much closer. It's a shame that O'Brien's AGE OF AQUARIUS (Galileo [Ire]) was ruled out by a setback; I suspect that the race would have set up well for him, he had beaten Mastery in his prior start, and he has no shortage of stamina in his pedigree.

Having resisted the antiquarian charms of the St Leger, Sea the Stars is in a stronger position going into Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). A victory would make him a legend, on the order of Dancing Brave (1986) and Mill Reef (1971). Unlike those all-time greats, however, Sea the Stars has not raced at 1 1/2 miles since the Derby. He swerved the summer's most significant inter-generational clash at that distance, the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1), a prize captured by Mill Reef and Dancing Brave on their march toward the Arc. While Mill Reef and Dancing Brave had already thrashed elite older horses at Europe's classic distance, Sea the Stars arrives at Longchamp to take an examination that is entirely new to him. Of course, he's aced all of his tests this season, even the one he had to work the hardest for, and he is quite simply the best horse, on merit, in the race.

But before prematurely handing him the trophy, it's worth considering the obstacles that could stand in his way. The draw is not one of them, as he has landed a plum spot in post 6. Two other potential obstacles may have already been cleared. No deluge of rain is expected, so the ground shouldn't be a factor. Moreover, Sea the Stars is reportedly in fine form, so it's possible that he's avoided the dreaded end-of-the-season bounce that has cost others dearly in this race. One can't know that with metaphysical certainty, though, and rival rider Kieren Fallon has ruminated in the Racing Post about the prospects for such a bounce.

An obvious concern is a crowded, 19-horse field, and indeed, Oxx has admitted as much. On the other hand, Sea the Stars travels so well, and has so many gears, that one would expect him to be able to extricate himself from traffic jams. The best horses tend to make their own luck, and he has an expert guide in Kinane.

The question of the course and distance may pose a more difficult challenge. The fact that he coped with 1 1/2 miles at Epsom, which is friendly to horses with his speed and handiness, does not necessarily mean that he will be equally suited to a truly-run 1 1/2 miles at Longchamp. For some historical perspective on the matter, let's turn to the Arc's official historian, Arthur Fitzgerald. In his Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, 1965-1982, Fitzgerald assesses the great Nijinsky, who suffered his first career loss in the Arc:

"On account of the gradients on the course at Epsom, the Derby can be won by a high-class colt, who does not really stay a mile and a half, but is in reality a ten or eleven furlong horse. Sir Ivor was a notable example....It is probable that Longchamp's mile and a half course is the stiffest and most searching test of stamina of any major racecourse in Europe. Therefore the 1970 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, for which he started 5 to 2 on favorite, was likely to provide Nijinsky with the greatest test he had ever faced. Although ostensibly on paper and in the great majority of people's minds, the outcome was a mere formality; there remains a suspicion that some people's judgment at that time was mesmerised by the brilliant and explosive bursts of acceleration that Nijinsky had shown at Newmarket, Epsom and Ascot" (p. 69).

Of course, Nijinsky was also coming off a grueling victory in the St Leger, but the larger point remains: Are we being similarly mesmerized by Sea the Stars' brilliance? Remember that, even after the Derby, Oxx and Kinane suggested that 10 furlongs was his ideal trip. Perhaps that factored into Oxx's decision to skip the King George, although he emphasizes that his primary reason was just the spacing between races. Still, it was shrewd to tailor his campaign around 10-furlong races, than risk his still-developing reputation over 12 furlongs in the King George. Now that he is universally hailed as a great horse, this is the time to pop the distance question.

Win or lose, Sea the Stars is already in the pantheon. He essentially has two alternative destinations: either he is classed alongside Nijinsky and Sir Ivor as brilliant champions who failed to add the Arc to their resume, or he joins Dancing Brave and Mill Reef. Whatever happens on Sunday, Sea the Stars is in rare company.

If Sea the Stars puts the seal on his golden season, he would also elevate his dam's historic profile. Urban Sea (Miswaki), who captured the 1993 Arc, would become just the second Arc heroine to produce an Arc winner. The first was Detroit (Fr) (Riverman), the 1980 Arc winner, who produced 1994 Arc hero Carnegie (Ire).

(Sunday Note: Thanks to a reader for kindly reminding me of Detroit! I had overlooked her in the original posting of the diary, and have corrected the preceding paragraph accordingly.)

To highlight how incredible a breeding accomplishment that is for a mare, consider that only six Arc-winning males have sired Arc winners. Four Arc winners have progeny to represent them on Sunday -- Fame and Glory, a son of 1999 hero Montjeu (Ire); CONDUIT (Ire), by 2003 Arc star Dalakhani; YOUMZAIN, a son of Sinndar, who won for Oxx in 2000; and BEHESHTAM, by 1997 champion Peintre Celebre.

Of Sea the Stars' rivals in the Arc, Oxx has mentioned Fame and Glory as a principal danger, and it is easy to see why. The Ballydoyle colt would still be unbeaten, were it not for his misfortune of being foaled the same year as Sea the Stars. His only losses were his runner-up efforts in the Derby and Irish Champion, and in between, he was an impressive winner of the Irish Derby (Ire-G1), where his high-class stamina was fully revealed. The Arc should play to his ample strengths, and if his archrival has an Achilles' heel at Longchamp, Fame and Glory should be well suited to expose it.

Should Fame and Glory find a way to turn the tables, he would elevate the historic profile of Montjeu, who would join the legendary *Ribot as the only Arc winner to sire two Arc winners. Ribot's pair were Molvedo (1961) and *Prince Royal II (1964), while Montjeu got off the mark with Hurricane Run (Ire) in 2005.

The four-year-old Conduit, who was well beaten into third in the Eclipse, is also hoping to reverse form with Sea the Stars in this 12-furlong championship. The Sir Michael Stoute charge will again concede significant weight to his younger opponents, spotting eight pounds to a superior horse in Sea the Stars. But as with Fame and Glory, the Arc will provide the stamina test that he relishes, and in that respect, it is a much more favorable venue for him than the Eclipse. Conduit has also been prepared with an autumn campaign in mind, so he was not near his peak for the Eclipse, but Stoute surely has him primed now.

On the other hand, Conduit must buck two important historical trends if he is to give Stoute his first Arc trophy. First, Conduit has not raced since his efficient score in the King George in late July, and that path has not been a successful one leading to the Arc. Indeed, in the last 40 years, only three horses who last raced in the King George went on to win the Arc -- Mill Reef, Rainbow Quest (promoted via disqualification in 1985) and Lammtarra (1995). The statistics overwhelmingly favor horses who have had a prep race nearer to the Arc.

Still more worrisome for Conduit, only one winner of the English St Leger has ever won the Arc -- *Ballymoss, the 1957 St Leger victor who captured the 1958 Arc. As the hero of the 2008 St Leger, Conduit will have to be at least as good as Ballymoss to turn the double. I would contend that he'd have to be better than Ballymoss to defeat this cast, which is exceptional, even by the Arc's lofty standards.

The six-year-old Youmzain is taking his third swing at the Arc, having finished runner-up to Dylan Thomas (Ire) and Zarkava for the past two years. The Mick Channon trainee also had strong form vis-a-vis Rail Link, the 2006 Arc winner, so he serves as a useful yardstick for the depth of this year's field. Youmzain is a wildcard in that he's capable of huge efforts on occasion, but he tends to find trouble. If anyone can conjure the best from him, it's Fallon, who is predicting a top performance. Youmzain will add blinkers, and he wouldn't be the first horse to turn things around with sharper focus.

Note that Youmzain is coming off a one-paced third to GETAWAY (Monsun) in the September 6 Grosser Preis von Baden (Ger-G1). Youmzain took the same route to the 2007 Arc, where he improved dramatically off a fourth at Baden-Baden to nearly upset Dylan Thomas.

Getaway is likewise trying the Arc for the third time. Fourth to Dylan Thomas and eighth behind Zarkava when trained by Andre Fabre, the German-bred has been in the form of his life since going back home and joining Jens Hirschberger. Whether Getaway just needed a change of scenery, or appreciated the relative class drop, he has scored his first two Group 1 victories this campaign. Getaway could not have been more authoritative in the Grosser Preis von Baden, drawing off by a comprehensive three lengths on soft ground. He's clearly headed in the right direction, but the six-year-old will need a career-best effort to threaten Sunday. The last Grosser Preis von Baden winner to take the Arc was Marienbard (2002); prior to that, the last Arc winner to exit the Baden event was *Star Appeal (1975), who was fourth at Baden-Baden before garnering a roughly-run Arc.

Modern Arc winners have most often emerged from the respective course-and-distance trials at Longchamp, which were held on September 13 this year. In the Prix Foy (Fr-G2), Juddmonte Farms' homebred SPANISH MOON (El Prado [Ire]) held on by three-quarters of a length from VISION D'ETAT (Chichicastenango) in a final time of 2:28 3/5, best of the day's three Arc trials. For that reason, Vision d'Etat deserves great credit for quickening well, and closing fastest of all, just when the serious running started. Trainer Eric Libaud has been thrilled with his Arc preparations, and Vision d'Etat merits respect as a winner of eight of 11 lifetime, including last year's Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) (Fr-G1) and this year's Prix Ganay (Fr-G1) and Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot. His lone unplaced finish came in the 2008 Arc, when he was in the hunt with Zarkava before winding up fifth.

Unfortunately, Spanish Moon was withdrawn from Arc consideration, a bewildering decision. The Stoute trainee turned in an excellent front-running performance in the Foy, his first start in more than two months, and he was entitled to move forward off the effort. Yet Spanish Moon's connections wanted to duck Sea the Stars and preferred to look ahead to targets abroad, such as the Breeders' Cup, Japan or Hong Kong. Fame and Glory and Conduit also have Breeders' Cup ambitions (as might Sea the Stars), but they're not skipping the Arc! It's folly to swerve an otherwise logical target because of one horse. Spanish Moon was well qualified for the Arc, boasting stronger credentials than a number of others who are lining up.

The Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1) for distaffers was marred by the intrusion of the stewards, who disqualified the outright winner DAR RE MI (Singspiel [Ire]) for an imaginary infraction and promoted STACELITA (Monsun) to the victory. The officials' notion that Dar Re Mi interfered with fifth-place finisher SOBERANIA (Monsun) is farcical, for neither Soberania nor her rider ever lost momentum, and they were plainly outkicked by the top four finishers.

Dar Re Mi will now head to the Arc on a wave of righteous anger, and worldwide sympathy, and it would be a fine turn of justice if she were to win. The John Gosden filly has burst the bubbles of Europe's most hyped sophomore fillies this season, having beaten SARISKA (Pivotal) in the Yorkshire Oaks (Eng-G1) prior to nailing Stacelita approaching the wire in the Vermeille. Dar Re Mi, who was runner-up to Zarkava in last year's Vermeille, would pay her old conqueror a handsome compliment if she goes close here.

On the other hand, I don't think that we saw the real Stacelita in the Vermeille, and I wouldn't be surprised if she were an entirely different specimen in the Arc, for which she has been supplemented. Unraced since spread-eagling the field in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (Fr-G1) in June, Stacelita was stepping up to 1 1/2 miles for the first time in the Vermeille, and the Jean-Claude Rouget filly didn't show her customary power. This is clear from third-placer (subsequently elevated to second) PLUMANIA (Anabaa), who was crushed by Stacelita twice earlier in the year, yet was only 1 1/2 lengths behind her in the Vermeille. Stacelita adopted her usual, forwardly-placed tactics, took over from her pacemaker in the stretch, never really kicked away from the field, and just yielded late to a tough, high-class, race-fit, older rival in Dar Re Mi.

The Prix Niel (Fr-G2) for sophomores has usually proven to be informative for the Arc, but perhaps not this time, and not only because it was the slowest of the three trials. The improving CAVALRYMAN (Halling [GB]), who had defeated Age of Aquarius and eventual St Leger winner Mastery in the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1), posted a workmanlike, half-length victory over Beheshtam in the Niel. It was just the sort of trial that horsemen love, in that the top two returned from their summer holiday with a fine tune-up that didn't take a lot out of them.

This is a world apart from the kind of races that Sea the Stars and Fame and Glory have contested, however, and both colts would have to show colossal improvement in the Arc. On the other hand, both are in the hands of masters who are capable of extracting just that kind of improvement. Godolphin's Cavalryman is trained by a record seven-time Arc winner in Fabre, who was not averse to supplementing him to the Arc. The Aga Khan's homebred Beheshtam is trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre, who conditioned Zarkava and Dalakhani. I suspect that Beheshtam has a bit more progress up his sleeve than Cavalryman. The late-developing colt has shown more at home than on the racecourse so far, but he was given a very sympathetic ride in the Niel, and he was finishing well. Beheshtam is eligible to get the better of Cavalryman in the Arc, especially in view of Cavalryman's dreadful 19 post position.

While the Arc is the most compelling race of the weekend, other events will yield a harvest of Breeders' Cup clues. Sunday's Prix de l'Opera (Fr-G1) figures to produce at least one candidate for the Filly & Mare Turf (G1). Juddmonte's Oaks (Eng-G1) runner-up MIDDAY (Oasis Dream [GB]), a convincing winner of the Nassau S. (Eng-G1) last out, will likely head to Oak Tree if she performs up to expectations at Longchamp. The Henry Cecil filly will face a few serious older customers, including Prix Jean Romanet (Fr-G1) queen ALPINE ROSE (Linamix), who was runner-up to Spanish Moon two back and almost went to the Arc herself; Godolphin's LADY MARIAN (Nayef), the defending Opera champion who missed narrowly to Alpine Rose in the Romanet; the Dermot Weld-trained CHINESE WHITE (Dalakhani), who extended her winning streak to three in the September 12 Blandford S. (Ire-G2); and Stoute's CRYSTAL CAPELLA (Cape Cross [Ire]), last seen outdueling Dar Re Mi in the Middleton S. (Eng-G3) in May.

Also on Sunday, the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (Fr-G1) will likely serve as a launching pad to the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint for FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit). The Jeremy Noseda filly is using a tried-and-true path, having finished fifth in last year's Abbaye and fourth in the Turf Sprint. Fleeting Spirit is even stronger this season at four, with a victory in the July Cup (Eng-G1) over males to her credit.

On Saturday at Longchamp, all eyes will be on the superstar GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa) as she looks for her fourth straight score in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1). The Freddie Head filly is cutting back in trip to about seven furlongs for the first time in her career, but given the loads of pace she has shown in the Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1) and Prix Jacques le Marois (Fr-G1) this season, it should not be a problem. Goldikova is sure to book her passage to a title defense in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1).

A few notables are lining up in Saturday's Prix Dollar (Fr-G2) at nearly 1 1/4 miles, including Weld's FAMOUS NAME (Dansili [GB]), who was a trifle unlucky to lose to Vision d'Etat in the 2008 French Derby, and who comes off a solid second to AQLAAM (Oasis Dream [GB]) in the Prix du Moulin (Fr-G1); Godolphin's well-traveled, multiple Group1-placed BALIUS (Mujahid), most recently successful in the Anatolian S. on the Polytrack at Veliefendi Racecourse in Istanbul; Group 2 victors PIPEDREAMER (Selkirk), who returns from a four-month layoff for Gosden, and CITY LEADER (Fasliyev), who will be making just his second start of the year for Brian Meehan; and Arlington Million (G1) third STOTSFOLD (GB) (Barathea [Ire]), who exits a runner-up effort in the Select S. (Eng-G3) at Goodwood.

Saturday's Sun Chariot S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket could have Breeders' Cup implications, whether for the Mile or Filly & Mare Turf. One Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) and Coronation S. (Eng-G1) star GHANAATI (Giant's Causeway) reverts to distaff company here after a dull third in the Sussex S. (Eng-G1), and the Barry Hills filly rates as the one to beat in the mile affair. Among her opponents are Beverly D. S. (G1) runner-up ALNADANA (Ire) (Danehill Dancer); HEAVEN SENT (Pivotal), most recently runner-up to RAINBOW VIEW (Dynaformer) in the Matron S. (Ire-G1); SPACIOUS (Nayef), who along with Heaven Sent had chased Goldikova earlier in the summer; and the upwardly mobile STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI (Dansili [GB]).

Ghanaati's conqueror in the Sussex, RIP VAN WINKLE (Galileo [Ire]), recovered from a hoof problem in time to contest the September 26 Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot, and the O'Brien colt firmly put his three rivals in their place. After powering to the front at the top of the stretch, "Rip" was accosted by the outsider ZACINTO (Dansili [GB]), who drew up to his girth and briefly threatened to spring an upset. Rip smoothly pulled away again and crossed the wire a decisive 1 1/4-length winner, with something in reserve.

Zacinto, highly regarded last year as a juvenile, was racing for only the third time this season, and the Juddmonte Farms homebred is on the upswing for Stoute. By drawing 3 1/4 lengths clear of QEII third DELEGATOR (Dansili [GB]), Zacinto avenged his loss at the hands of Delegator in the Celebration Mile (Eng-G2) in their prior start. Delegator ran a bit below his best in the QEII, as did Moulin winner Aqlaam, who faded to finish a distant last of the quartet. Sadly, the oft-injured Aqlaam exited the race with an injury, and the Sheikh Hamdan colt will likely be retired.

If Sheikh Hamdan had it to do over again, would he have run Ghanaati instead of Aqlaam in the QEII? Should Ghanaati win the Sun Chariot handily, it might fuel further second-guessing about the QEII. She was proven at the QEII course and distance, after all, and may have performed much better than she did in the Sussex at Goodwood.

Rip is on course for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), where he will attempt to emulate Raven's Pass, who turned the QEII/Classic double last year. O'Brien could be double-handed in the Classic, for Mastercraftsman pummeled a bunch of overmatched rivals in Friday's Diamond S. (Ire-G3) at Dundalk. Making his Polytrack debut, the gray sophomore rated in a distant third, well adrift of the two speedy front runners who sprinted to a double-digit lead. Mastercraftsman asserted his class, closed in on the leaders in the stretch and coasted home unextended by five lengths. The effortless win must have done wonders for his psyche, considering that he had been beaten twice recently by Sea the Stars.

Europe's last top-level race with Breeders' Cup potential will probably be the October 17 Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket. Dual Oaks heroine Sariska, who passed on Longchamp this weekend because of the lack of rain, is expected to contest the 1 1/4-mile event. Juddmonte has a few in the mix, including Zacinto; TWICE OVER (Observatory), who was runner-up to New Approach in the 2008 edition; and DOCTOR FREMANTLE (Sadler's Wells), who just caught last year's Oaks queen, LOOK HERE (Hernando [Fr]), on the line in the September 18 Arc Trial (Eng-G3) at Newbury.

An up-and-comer who could be supplemented to the Champion is Ghanaati's older half-brother, MAWATHEEQ (Danzig), who rolled to a 2 1/4-length victory over the consistent CAMPANOLOGIST (Kingmambo) in the September 27 Cumberland Lodge S. (Eng-G3) at Ascot. Finishing a sneakily good fourth in his much-awaited comeback was RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]). Now back in the care of Meehan, the 2006 Turf (G1) hero may enter Breeders' Cup calculations once again.

Our next edition will recap all of the Arc weekend action, as well as the Champion.

COMMENTARY

SEPTEMBER 27, 2009

The Good Sheppard

by John Mucciolo

When asked to reel off the top trainer or trainers in the United States, the common answers include the likes of Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, John Sadler, Steve Asmussen, Richard Mandella et al, and deservedly so, but one name that tends to get overlooked is the genius known as Jonathan Sheppard. Born just outside of Newmarket in England, the 68-year-old conditioner is the son of a British racing official and got the racing bug himself, coming to the United States in his 20s to learn his craft. And learn it he did!

He saddled his first winner in 1966 and hasn't stopped since. In 1973, the Brit led the nation in money won by a steeplechase trainer, and he did so for a startling 18 years in succession, leading his division for every year through 1990. A truly remarkable feat! His mounts have banked more than $11 million in steeplechase events, more than twice the number of his nearest foe. It was in 1990 that Sheppard was deservedly enshrined into Thoroughbred racing's Hall of Fame.

After dominating the steeplechase ranks, Sheppard figured to try his hand at flat racing, and the quick study picked up right where he left off. In 1985, he conditioned the legendary Storm Cat to a top freshman campaign that included a Grade 1 win and a runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Aqueduct. A subsequent injury the following year forced the retirement of the promising, well-bred juvenile, and it was Sheppard's unquestionable genius that helped pave the way for Overbrook Farm owner W.T. Young to make the greatest move in his storied racing career -- standing Storm Cat at stud at his Lexington, Kentucky, farm rather than selling him.

"Back then, Mr. Young sold his horses rather than breed them," Sheppard said. "No one could have envisioned how great a sire Storm Cat would turn out to be, but my wife and I thought he had great potential at stud and we urged Mr. Young to keep him."

Another example of how the expert horseman has gotten the best out of one of his animals is the rapid ascension of champion Forever Together (Belong to Me). As many know, the classy gray was not always the easiest of fillies to work with, but Sheppard worked his magic once again. The quirky filly had issues with not sweating, so Sheppard started feeding her Guinness Beer because he said it helps to promote perspiration -- an added bonus is that she likes the taste and therefore never leaves an oat of her feed. Brilliant! The high-maintenance miss was also a handful in her training -- it was reported that she actually would stop in her tracks while galloping -- so Sheppard made an adjustment and transferred her to the green. The turf star has arguably been the top performer in her division for the past two seasons.

After Sheppard took over the training of Canadian Grade 1 victor Cloudy's Knight (Lord Avie) and brought him back from a one-year layoff to easily win the Kentucky Cup Turf S. (G3) on September 19, jockey Rosemary Homeister explained how the nine-year-old gelding accomplished the task: "(Sheppard) is the king of the turf."

One of only two conditioners to train a champion over jumps and on the flat, Sheppard has been on a huge roll over the past two years and holds a strong hand heading toward the 26th edition of the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships at Santa Anita in early November. Multiple Grade 1 queen Informed Decision (Monarchos) is the best one-turn synthetic female in training not named Ventura (Chester House) and will be among the favorites in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). Forever Together has come up short on a few occasions in 2009, but she's a model of consistency and excellence and her presence will almost definitely be felt as she looks to repeat in the Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

Just As Well (A.P. Indy) was vaulted from second to first in the Northern Dancer S. (Can-G1) on Sunday and is peaking at age five. Runner-up in the Arlington Million (G1) two starts back, Just As Well might be a cut below some of the best turf stayers from abroad, but he rates as one of the best in the United States and could still make a bid at the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) following the 1 1/2-mile Canadian International (Can-G1) on October 17. Sheppard could have three top threats leading into the Breeders' Cup, quite a feat.

The Good Sheppard is a living legend who has reinvented himself, and he should be given the respect he deserves. There is simply no one better!

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

SEPTEMBER 26, 2009

Budding turf sire Eurosilver

by Tim Holland

Bred and raced by Buckram Oak Farm, Eurosilver began his career on the racetrack with Nick Zito and won the Breeders' Futurity (G2) at Keeneland. After capturing his first start as a three-year-old at Gulfstream, Eurosilver narrowly missed winning the Swale S. (G3), but his Triple Crown aspirations were thwarted by physical problems and the dark bay colt did not reappear until the fall of that year with new trainer Carl Nafzger.

Eurosilver's finest performance came in the Stephen Foster H. (G1) when he finished second to that year's Horse of the Year, Saint Liam, with the consistent Grade 1 performer Perfect Drift back in third. However, Eurosilver made just one subsequent start, an unplaced effort in the Whitney H. (G1), before being retired to Dromoland Farm in Kentucky.

Although he did not get the opportunity to race on grass, Eurosilver had the potential to succeed as a turf runner. Indeed, sire Unbridled's Song gets turf influences from being out of a mare by Caro (Ire), who has sired major grass winners such as With Approval, Cozzene and Golden Pheasant, and Unbridled's Song is responsible for Grade 1  turf winners Thorn Song and Magnificent Song. However, Eurosilver gets more turf influence from his dam, Russian Tango (Nijinsky II). The Unbridled's Song/ Nijinsky match has produced only four other foals, of which two were minor winners, but the Unbridled/Nijinsky nick has produced the stakes-winning Tap Your Heels and Broken Vow, who counts the 2001 Philip Iselin H. (G2) among his five stakes victories. Like Eurosilver, Broken Vow did not race on grass but, while best known as a sire of dirt runners, he has done well with his performers on the grass, winning at a 12 percent rate, including recent With Anticipation S. (G3) victor Interactif.

From his first crop of 123 two-year-olds, Eurosilver has been represented by 37 starters, with seven winners. His first winner was the Herbert Miller-trained Judas, who broke his maiden in his fifth attempt at Calder over 4 1/2 furlongs on July 24. A week later, Sterling Outlook garnered a maiden special weight event at Del Mar. A $270,000 yearling purchase trained by Peter Miller, Sterling Outlook followed this wire-to-wire win with a solid fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1).

Huasteco and Unclerichpeanuts were Eurosilver's next two scorers, and then came the sire's first turf winner, Shimmering Forest at Ellis Park. After showing promise in his first two starts, including a close third over 5 1/2 grassy furlongs, Shimmering Forest showed speed from the start and went on to win by a length when stretching out to a mile.

While Eurosilver's first four winners all needed a few starts to find the winner's circle, Crossfirehurricane bucked this trend when she proved ready to win first time out over 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass at Saratoga on September 3. Despite being trained by Ronny Werner, who is known for his success with first-time starters, the bay filly was sent off at 42-1.

Eurosilver's third consecutive winner on the grass came on September 20 when Avy Baby stalked the pace before drawing away to 4 3/4-length decision in a 1 1/16-mile affair at Arlington. Having shown very little in three starts while sprinting on the Polytrack, Avy Baby's form improved significantly when switching to the turf and stretching out in distance.

To-date, Eurosilver's runners have three wins from just eight turf starts, and several others, including Grand Strategy and Green Bananas, have shown promise in their debuts on the dirt. Paying attention to his offspring when trying the grass looks like an angle worth following.

WINNING AND LOSING STREAKS

AUGUST 26, 2009

by the Wizard

In Thoroughbred racing, every level of handicapper has encountered winning and losing streaks from time to time. Absolutely no one is immune to this phenomenon, and we are forced to deal with them on a consistent basis. These streaks come and go without the slightest bit of warning; making them even more difficult to recognize. Having said that, it is how we handle these highs and lows which greatly impact our bottom line that needs to be addressed.

For example, my Pick of the Day sheet has been absolutely on fire recently. The Pick of the Day has won an incredible 70 percent of late, winning seven of its last 10 races. While I would like to flatter myself and rationalize that it is my superior expertise as a handicapper, I know that at this time, things are just neatly falling into place. How am I able to identify this? Well, past experience tells me that this is a game of cycles. At this time, I seem to be spiraling onward and upward, and I plan to enjoy the ride for however long it lasts. During this streak, I was fortunate enough to select D' Funnybone (D'Wildcat) in Race 9 last Thursday at Saratoga, the Sanford S. (G2) for two-year-olds. My write-up for D' Funnybone on the Pick of the Day sheet for last Thursday appeared as follows:

(6)  D' FUNNYBONE -- Makes that all important move into the care of trainer Richard Dutrow who has been a wizard over the years with new acquisitions, scoring with over 30 percent in their first start and, amazingly, many times at good prices. This 2yo colt doesn't have to improve much, if at all, off two solid starts in Florida which prompted a private purchase by Paul Pompa Jr. of Big Brown fame after his July 11 race. Son of D'Wildcat hadn't run in nearly 2 months in latest start but ran a colt by the name of Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil) right down to the wire. That rival returned to win another stakes at Calder in his next outing and further flattered this game performance. Talented colt has shown he can rate and will utilize that ability in this spot under Dutrow's main man, Edgar Prado. Should offer a square price in a competitive field.

Not only did D' Funnybone win, but he paid $10.20! Also "keyed" a $44 exacta given out on the sheet. There have been times in the past when I have selected a similar type of runner as the Pick of the Day, or as a Crystal Ball selection (BEST BET) for that matter, and I was happy to get 2-1 odds. These types of occurrences are part of the winning streak as well, getting more than you hoped for. Can there be a downside to such a winning streak? Absolutely. During my run of Pick of the Day winners, I have selected TOP winners of 20 of the last 40 races at Saratoga, some of which were Crystal Ball selections that had the added bonus of being of Pick of the Day selection as well. When handicappers enjoy such great success for a sustained period of time, they have a tendency to wager more than they normally would, experiencing an invincibility of sorts during this timeframe.

Increasing your wagers by a substantial margin, leaving your "comfort zone" so to speak, can be disastrous. After a couple of losing bets, you might want to bet even more, looking for wagers that aren’t there. Before you know it, you have blown your profits, and you are now attempting to recoup that lost money. When riding high, you should remain even keel, increasing your wagers marginally, if at all. Also, when you are winning, handicappers have a tendency to get a bit lazy, take shortcuts in their handicapping and/or bet races where they lack a firm opinion as "ego" comes into play. It happens to us all. This type of behavior is just as bad as betting slow horses, both will evaporate your bankroll in a hurry.

Thus far, we have only talked about a winning streak. If you are ill-equipped to handle a losing streak; no matter how long or pronounced; you are in trouble. Period. We all have a tendency to press after a series of losing bets. This is not the time to increase your bet as this will certainly lead you down the path to going broke. During this time, you must continue to work hard and probably be more disciplined than ever as you struggle. If the streak persists, perhaps you may want to cut back a little and pass more races. Also, you might want to revisit some races where you picked the winner, or you feel you handicapped the race well but did not win. There is nothing like positive reinforcement to help you out of this hole you are in. This pertains to everyday life as well.

I have been "on a roll" at my home track of late, Saratoga. My experience in this game, which spans decades, tells me it will not last forever. Why? Who knows? Maybe when the racing shifts to Belmont I will cool off a bit. Or, it could be that it is just the natural order of things that my high-level of success will begin to wane at some juncture. Whatever the culprit is, I know that I continue to do things in the same manner, perhaps working even more diligently every day to handicap winners. I will go on with what has worked for me in the past, and/or look to see what adjustments might be necessary to move forward.  

Let's face it, nobody can avoid these "streaks." Maybe that is not the proper term to use, as it could be inferred that luck is present in some way, shape, or form during this time. One thing I am quite sure about is this, a structured handicapping routine, prudent bankroll management and extreme patience will help thru the lean times. Don't get too high when you're winning or too low when you're losing. I know it's easier said than done. But, the winners do the things the losers won't!

Horses to Watch

Ok. So you have a Horses to Watch list. Now what? These types of lists can get you into trouble if you are not careful. Just because you happen to have a Horse to Watch that is running, it is not an automatic play. So, how do we avoid the pitfalls that come with such a list?       

First of all, make sure that you are extremely selective about placing any horse on the list. If a horse gets into trouble, and it was there for the entire world to see, he will probably be overbet the next time he runs. Subtle trouble and or an observation work best and will be the most beneficial for you.     

I have developed a little checklist for you for things to look for with runners on a Horse to Watch list.

Recency -- I like to see a horse run back within 45 days. You can use your own guideline here.

Surface -- Is the horse returning on the same surface? If not, has he/she handled today's track/surface in the past?

Distance -- Has the horse won at today's distance in the past, or at least within an eighth of mile of it, especially if returning off a short layoff.

Form -- How does the horse stack up against today's competition? Is our runner in over his head? If the horse needs the lead, can he/she get it? Is there is other speed in the race and how much will our runner be compromised?

Finally, and this maybe the most significant aspect of all, make sure that you are getting "fair odds." If you handicapped the race the day before like I usually do, set a fair odds-line, and make sure you get it. For instance; if I think the horse should be 5-2 or more and he/she is sitting on the board at even-money, it's a passeroo! Following the lemmings is not the way go. Handicappers who take the road less traveled eventually yield the benefit. If not immediately, than later on.

The Wizard's product line is available exclusively at Brisnet.com. Call 800-354-9206 and ask for Customer Service to sign up for any Wizard Products or do it on-line at Brisnet.com!

CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK

NOVEMBER 20, 2009

by Frank Cotolo

The second full week of the November Churchill meet wrote another 50 races into the season's history book, with a sharp betting public producing a 46-percent win tally. That astute behavior brought the meet's halfway point average to 37 percent.

As strongly as some bettors feel about horses changing surfaces, specifically from all-weather to genuine dirt and vice versa, the horses coming to this brief meet from Keeneland, Turfway and Arlington continue to dominate at Churchill. Twenty of the week's winners, most of them in dirt events, were horses from Keeneland. Turfway provided four winners while Arlington and Presque Isle Downs contributed two each.

TRACK STATS

There has been a significant bias for horses coming off the pace this past week. We use three definitions to address the style statistics of winners. First, "off the pace" means the horse must have a call fourth or farther back before the half. Second, "close off the pace" means a horse must be within the first three on top all of the way, as long as being second or third is not separated by an unusual number of lengths. Finally, "wire-to-wire" is defined as having the lead at every call (unless in a duel the horse loses the lead at the exact moment of the call).

That being established, from November 11 through November 15, a startling 48 percent of the winners on the dirt were winners from off the pace. On November 14, there was no way for speed to win, with all nine dirt races won from off the pace, only one with the "close" definition. The day before there were four wire-to-wire wins.

Justifying the definitions, being close to the pace or on top all the way tallied 28 percent and 25 percent tallies, respectively. Still, wire-to-wire wins were rare and horses performing them should be noted as strong bet backs.

On the turf, winning from off the pace provided 45 percent of the winners.

TRAINERS

Steve Asmussen had a great week, topping all trainers with his five victories. Tom Proctor placed with three wins and a pair each were recorded by Ken McPeek, Greg Foley, Dale Romans, Ian Wilkes and Wallace Dollase. A first-time starter got into the winners' circle this week from conditioner Michelle Ninei.

STAKES

Sean McCarthy decided to head east and run LEMON CHIFFON (Lemon Drop Kid) at Churchill Downs in Saturday's Cardinal H. (G3) on the Matt Winn Turf Course. He is having his horse skip the November 28 Matriarch S. (G1) at Hollywood Park to go in this $100,000 event. It will be her second start at Churchill this year, as she ran third in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) this spring.

She broke her maiden in 2007 at Santa Anita with rider Jon Court aboard. He'll be in Louisville, Kentucky, for the mare's trip this time around at Churchill.

Local heroine ACOMA (Empire Maker), who has won on this course twice in stakes races and is running a four-race win streak on grass and dirt, is raring to go in this event, also. She is the top weight for trainer David Carroll, with Jesus Castanon up.

HORSES TO WATCH

One winner from our Horses to Watch list came back from this meet. SILVER CRAFT (Value Plus) won and paid $8. From our Keeneland lists, shippers who have won at Churchill so far are SMARTEN DESTINY (Smart Strike), $4.80; and COULEE (Vicar), $23.80. MOUNTAIN JUSTICE (Afleet Alex) returned off the Keeneland list and paid $18.60 for breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds on November 15.

Wednesday (11/11)

8TH -- PICK AND PRAY (Songandaprayer) produced an impressive wire-to-wire win on a day when eight horses won off the pace on the dirt. What is even better is that he won drawing away by 9 1/2 lengths, making for one terrific bet back.

Thursday (11/12)

2ND -- HAPPY WAC (Military) dueled to the three-eighths mark and, though he drifted a bit after the fight, seemed to take well to the dirt from Presque Isle's Tapeta surface.

5TH -- HONOR IN PEACE (Peace Rules) is better than this race, where he was pushed to the outside every step of the way and tired from the process.

7TH -- PAPAW BROUGHTON (Saint Liam) was out for the first time and got to the lead early, which is a significant display of speed.

Friday (11/13)

5TH -- EXCURSION (Sunday Break [Jpn]), at 9-1, was close to the pace early and battled with a 67-1 shot before both tired.

7TH -- JOLLY OL' NICK (Nicholas) gained well to the half, then dueled and held well to finish third.

Saturday (11/14)

1ST -- GAMEBOOK (Midway Road) was all out at 21-1 in this route early, leading by five lengths until caught in the stretch.

4TH -- I BELIEVE IN ME (Giant's Causeway) looked good on the turf, getting to the lead and dueling to the half at 13-1. This is a recent Churchill returnee who seems to like the course.

Sunday (11/15)

1ST -- FAVORITE MOON (Malibu Moon) displayed a mighty first win, striking from the 11 post, leading wide and then maintaining through a duel at the half and winning. A definite bet back.

5TH -- INTEREST ME (Belong to Me) is a Philly invader who jumped well from the 9 post and maintained speed to finish a sharp second, best of the rest to a winner who was more than eight lengths ahead of him.

AQUEDUCT NOTEBOOK

NOVEMBER 20, 2009

by Albie Johnson

We lost the Stuyvesant (G3) last week due to a shortage of entries and that was the only graded event that was scheduled during the past week.

There were a half-dozen state-bred stakes on Sunday which were all part of the New York Stallion Series, and the start of the day was MOTHER RUSSIA (Mayakovsky), who won her fifth stakes of the year by taking the Staten Island division in wire-to-wire fashion. The sophomore filly has shown great versatility this season, winning stakes on the grass going both short and long. In this victory, she scored her third black-type win on the main track, two this year and one during her initial campaign.

Mother Russia has been nicely managed by trainer Linda Rice, who has had just a simply spectacular year on this circuit.

The day's only scheduled turf stakes was switched to the main track as we lost all the grass races on the weekend due to heavy rain.

A field of seven headed by RUFFINO (Raffie's Majesty), who was coming off a second in the $250,000 Empire Classic S. at Belmont in October, stayed in the Cormorant division, which was shortened-up to a mile when the race was transferred to the sloppy, sealed main track. Ruffino was made a very heavy favorite and prevailed after looking beaten turning for home. The bay gelding surged in the last sixteenth to get by Pretty Boy Freud (Freud), who had stalked through the opening quarter, surged to the lead midway on the turn, but could not hold off the public choice after opening up in midstretch. The final margin was three parts of a length for this homebred who is trained by H. James Bond.

Earlier in the week, the fleet and talented TAR HEEL MOM (Flatter) went wire-to-wire in an overnight stakes, scoring her second such contest in a row, having previously been victorious in a similar event at the Meadowlands. She's been nicely spotted by trainer Stanley Hough over her two years of racing and I wouldn't be surprised if she were to notch a win in a graded stakes in the near future.

Another overnight stakes was run on Thursday's card and attracted a number of fillies and mares who have raced well against graded competition. In an exciting three-horse battle to the wire, the Todd Pletcher-trained SEA CHANTER (War Chant) was up in the last several strides to prove a half-length better than state-bred Chestoria (Chester House), who in turn had a neck on fellow New York-bred Love Cove (Not for Love).

The winner was returning to the grass for the first time since February, having raced on the main track in her previous half-dozen starts.

TRACK STATS

Wednesday and Thursday saw fast and firm condition, but the turf was downgraded to just good on Friday. The weekend saw a sloppy, sealed, main track with no turf racing.

Speed or those running near the pace proved most successful in both sprints and longer contests, while there was no discernible bias visible in the several grass races that were run.

Inside posts (1 and 2) have won 38 percent of the sprints run at the meet with a very nice distribution in races of a mile or longer on the dirt. As far as the grass racing is concerned, there is a nice distribution there also excepting the hedge post, which has won only one of 34 at this meet.

The leading rider is once again Ramon Dominguez, who holds a sizeable 10-win lead on Jose Lezcano as he tries for a sweep of the Belmont, Saratoga and Aqueduct titles.

In the trainer's race, Todd Pletcher has a three-win lead over both Chad Brown and Mike Hushion, with nine other conditioners lumped close together right behind them.

HORSES TO WATCH

Wednesday (11/11)

3RD -- AWESOME ASHLEY (Unbridled's Song), who won a pair of stakes during the winter here, signaled that she may be returning to form as she rallied to finish second in this sprint behind Tar Heel Mom. The effort was her best since the spring and she should be a force when the action shifts to the inner-dirt in the next few weeks.

6TH -- Nice training job by Steve Asmussen as he had AUTUMNLADY (Proud Citizen) ready off a 10-month layoff to break her maiden in wire-to-wire fashion. The filly was dropping into a claimer for the first time and getting the addition of blinkers.

Thursday (11/12)

8TH -- Making his second start off a Bruce Levine claim in late August, GONE MISSING (Pine Bluff) finished a very game second in this spot, giving the classier and heavily favored Base Commander (Officer) all he could handle here while losing by just a half-length. He'll find an easier spot soon.

Friday (11/13)

1ST -- The lightly raced BILLY BEAR (Tiznow) continues to impress as he had no trouble in this state-bred allowance/optional claimer. In running his record to 5-3-2-0, the dark bay stalked early in this spot, took over when ready and proved much the best while winning by 4 1/4 lengths. He looks stakes bound soon.

Saturday (11/14)

5TH -- Don't often see 10-year-olds winning on this circuit, but MIDWATCH (Sea Hero) sprinted clear early in this one-mile test for bottom claimers and never had an anxious moment while reporting home by 5 3/4 lengths. The veteran was picking-up his 13th lifetime win and off this one he has some more left in him.

6TH -- Very nice debut by THEMANINTHEGLASS (Malibu Moon) in this spot. Well-bet off of some sparkling drills, the Pletcher-trained colt had a tough post (8 of 10) and after being rated early he split runners on the turn and rallied to finish third. The $200,000 yearling purchase should win soon here, or at Gulfstream if they elect to give him some time.

UPCOMING STAKES

The Discovery H. (G3) is scheduled for Saturday, and has drawn a field of six sophomores going 1 1/8 miles.

Have a nice week!

HOLLYWOOD NOTEBOOK

NOVEMBER 18, 2009

by John Mucciolo

There were no graded races during the opening weekend of Hollywood Park.

Track Stats

From a total of 26 races held over the Inglewood racetrack during the three-day week, favorites won at a 27 percent clip and the top two betting choices combined for 46 percent of the wins. From 18 frays contested on the Cushion Track oval, six animals won in wire-to-wire fashion (33 percent), while three of the eight grassy tussles went all the way on the lead (37 percent).

With just a small sample of races held, we won't snap into any judgments about the racing oval just yet, although it seems evident that this is not Santa Anita. Speed is good on this main strip, especially so on Sunday, and this is a trend that will likely hold true for the duration of the meeting. The firm turf is very fair to early types, as well.

At this juncture, it seems as though the right animal can break from any post and win from virtually anywhere on the Cushion, although as we stated before, those with early speed will likely have a little edge.

Meet Totals:

RACES:		26
CUSHION:		18
TURF:		8
FAVORITES:		7 (42 percent)
2ND CHOICES:		5 (22 percent)
TURF WIRE:		3 (14 percent)
CUSHION WIRE:		6 (16 percent)

Post Positions (wins):

RAIL:		32
1-3:		10
4-6:		7
7-out:		9

HORSES TO WATCH

Friday (11/13)

5TH -- FIREY RED (Ire) (Pivotal) showed us enough in her U.S. debut to tab for big improvement next out. The Dermot Weld-trained sophomore wasn't facing much in here, but it was her initial effort since early September and it's more than possible that she was just prepping for a bigger event later in the year. Her final quarter-mile shaded :22 and she wants more ground!

7TH -- Old timer SHADOW OF ILLINOIS (Illinois Storm) continues to prove that age can't hold him back with yet another top turf sprint showing for Anthony Saavedra. The gelded nine-year-old stopped the timer on this day in a brisk 1:08 3/5, recording a fairly comfortable tally under Alex Solis.

Saturday (11/14)

3RD -- Debuting TWIRLING CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) was heavily backed in here, and deservedly so, in a smart first showing for John Sadler. We're more than intrigued by this one, as he looked tons the best while signaling that vast improvement is likely around the corner. We'll be watching this one into his sophomore campaign.

NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (Lido Palace [Chi]) was well clear in second in a fine first run for conditioner Michael Machowsky, and it seems logical that the colt will graduate before long.

7TH -- Sadler also had impressive allowance star MONOLINGUAL (Maria's Mon) on this day, a three-year-old colt who crushed a useful group late to win his second in three starts. The gray came home fast and seems to be peaking -- a stakes try should follow.

Sunday (11/15)

7TH -- It is difficult to win more impressively at first asking than debuter SHE'S FUNOMENAL (Fusaichi Pegasus) did for Jerry Hollendorfer, pounding this field by 5 1/2 lengths. The Kentucky-bred bay could be absolutely any type and is bred to handle a bit more ground, so it's more than possible that this race was just a sneak peek of what is to come.

8TH -- HIGH COURT DRAMA (Ire) (Theatrical [Ire]) ran down a clear leader in the lane under Kieren Fallon to take his U.S. bow in fine fashion for trainer Doug O' Neill. The four-year-old colt toppled an average field at best, but he did so the right way and deserves consideration in his subsequent outing.

A look ahead

The $100,000 Hollywood Prevue S. (G3) will be held this Saturday for juveniles, while its female counterpart, the $100,000 Moccasin S., will take place on Sunday.