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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING FEBRUARY 9, 2008 "Under-the-radar" debut sires by Tim Holland At the beginning of the last two years, eight stallions that were rated "A" in the first-time starter category in the TSN Sire Stats book have been pinpointed in this space whose debutants could be potential overlays. In 2006 the 247 offspring of these under-the-radar sires that made their debuts won 41 times (17 percent) and, while it is generally unwise to blindly bet any set of horses regardless of odds, a straight win bet on all of these would have produced a profit of 10 percent. The stallions that were selected in mid-January of last year and followed through the end of last month were not quite as successful but were still profitable, winning 40 of 282 starts (14 percent ) for a profit of 4 percent at the windows. For each of the past two years, MUTAKDDIM has been the most successful selected sire. A solid but underrated Kentucky-based stallion, Mutakddim, a Group 2-placed stakes winner in England, owns a stallion's pedigree being related to Not For Love, Polish Numbers, Private Account and Rhythm. Despite siring more than 60 stakes winners including Test S. (G1) winner and millionaire (and incidentally debut winner) Lady Tak, Mutakddim is not considered a commercial type sire and many of his offspring end up with less familiar connections which can be of advantage to shrewd horseplayers. Indeed, in 2006 the stallion's offspring Jan Bo Nan, Tak Man and Muted Word, trained by Rick Hiles, Herbert Jones and Scott Sowle respectively, all returned more than $30 when breaking their maidens at first asking. Last year, debutants by Mutakddim continued to provide value, led by Turning Leaves, who paid $31 for her victory at Belmont, and Boudoir, who returned $61.60 when she successfully debuted over a mile at Arlington. In all, 14 of Mutakddim's 75 first-time starters in 2006 were winners, seven of which returned more than $10. Additionally, as was mentioned last year, if the offspring of these good debut sires do not win at their first attempt for whatever reason, it often pays to watch for them on their next start. Of the second-time starters by Mutakddim that had not won first time out last year, seven were victorious, including Sun Hawk (25.10-1) and Inspiration Lad (49.90-1) at Woodbine and Sugarfoot (11.30-1) at Turfway. A second sire that will be included in this list for the third time is WEST ACRE. Standing in Florida, the unraced West Acre is a son of proven sire of sires Forty Niner from the same female family as the leading stallions Pulpit, Tale of the Cat and Johannesburg. In 2006, seven of West Acre's 34 debutants were successful and while in the last 12 months he was not so successful, with four wins from 31 starts, these victories included the $35 payoff generated by Ivannarun at Calder in August and the recent 17-length romp by Affluent Lady at Philadelphia Park which returned $33.60. West Acre has 21 unraced three-year-olds and 36 juveniles to represent him in 2008, many of whom will be seen in Florida. ERLTON was selected for the first time last year and did not disappoint. With plenty of early speed, Erlton won eight of his 27 starts including the Hirsch Jacobs S. Standing in Louisiana, he was represented by eight winners from his first crop that raced in 2006. Erlton was represented last year by five debutant winners including Miss Erlton Class who wired her field at Delta Downs, returning $51.20 just a week after her sire was pinpointed in this column, and later in the year, Claudia Bertha ($19.60) and Elroy ($14.20) cemented Erlton as a sire that can produce value. The first new addition to the list this year is SNOW RIDGE who will be standing his first season in Pennsylvania in 2008 having been moved from Florida. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Snow Ridge was a brilliantly fast son of Tabasco Cat and he stretched his speed to seven furlongs when he scored his biggest of 10 wins in the San Carlos H. (G1) at Santa Anita. From his first crop of runners Snow Ridge sired the stakes winners Snow Way and Snow Lady, and last year an impressive eight of his 33 (24 percent) debutants were victorious. Several of these winners were no secret to the public, but value could be found when Snow Storm Lady won at Pimlico returning $19.80. In addition, debutant W J's Fox finished second at Turfway Park in September at odds exceeding 28-1, and first-timer School Girl was dispatched at 26.90-1 when she occupied the same placing at Arlington. Both of these runners won their next start, emphasizing the point that it is worth watching the offspring of these precocious sires on their subsequent efforts if unsuccessful in their first. Incidentally, while writing this article on February 7, the three-year-old gelding Boots and Shoes made his debut a winning one at Oaklawn, returning $6.60 as part of an entry. The next selection was, like Snow Ridge, conditioned by Lukas. However, the racing career of CAPE CANAVERAL was cut short by injury after just his fourth start in the spring of 2000. Hopes were high for the very well-bred Cape Canaveral when he entered stud in Kentucky. Being by Mr. Prospector and out of Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Seaside Attraction (Seattle Slew), he is a full-brother to champion Golden Attraction as well as a three-quarter brother to Florida Derby (G1) hero Cape Town (Seeking the Gold). Despite siring eight stakes winners in his first two crops, he has proven disappointing enough to be dispatched to Alberta for the 2008 breeding season. However, Cape Canaveral has shown himself as a useful sire of first-timers with nine of his 45 debutants winning last year. The most lucrative of these were Fox Forty Five, who won at Hawthorne in April returning $94.20, and Home At Dawn, a $21 winner at Louisiana Downs. The theme of watching these runners in their second start is continued with Carnival City, a first-timer by Cape Canaveral trained by Lukas, who is not known for winning with his first-time starters. Carnival City ran an encouraging race to be sixth in his debut at Saratoga before winning at the same venue four weeks later at 16.90-1. Cape Canaveral has 22 unraced three-year-olds to his name and no fewer than 86 juveniles waiting to represent him this year. A look at the pedigree of the stallion HE'S TOPS might inspire more confidence than his 4-0-1-1 race record, of which three efforts were in maiden claiming events. Indeed, He's Tops is by Seattle Slew, and he is a three-quarter brother to the dam of promising sire Dixie Union, from the family of Timber Country, Bianconi and Dubai Millennium. Standing in Washington, He's Tops has proven reasonably successful with 69 percent of his runners becoming winners, and his best performer to date is No Giveaway, who won Washington's biggest race, the Longacres Mile H. (G3) at Emerald Downs. Last year He's Tops was represented by 31 first-time starters, of which six won. Four of those returned more than $16, including Spatterdash, who was dispatched at 13.90-1, and Courageous Son, who was subsequently stakes-placed. He's Tops has 27 unraced three-year-olds and 33 two-year-olds to watch for this year, most of whom can be expected to be in action in the state of Washington. Closely related to He's Tops is the next selected sire, DOME, who is a half-brother to Dixie Union. Unraced and standing in New Mexico, Dome has so far had three crops to race and has sired three black-type winners including the multiple stakes winner Z Z Dome. From 21 debutants last year, four returned winners, including Momma Mac, who returned $29 at Zia Park, as well as Top Dancer and Top Set, who won wire-to-wire at Ruidoso Downs and Sunland Park respectively, each paying more than $12. In addition, Dome was responsible for Mega Dome, who ran second in her debut at odds of 26.20-1 and Dry n' High, who scored at second asking, returning $36.20. Dome has more than 50 unraced two- and three year olds to watch for this year, mostly on the New Mexico racing circuit. WILD GOLD was a tough and consistent sprinter whose nine victories from 36 tries included the California Sprint H. After spending the first few seasons of his stallion career in California, he was moved to Iowa, having just produced two stakes winners from his first six crops to race. However, it should be noted that 73 percent of the sire's starters have become winners, and he earns inclusion in this list through his record last year of having three winners and two second-place finishers from 11 debutants. These included the first-time out winners Frances Wild Gold and R R Gold, the latter returning $33.20, from Wild Gold's first crop foaled at his new home state where his debutants should be watched for in 2008. "A-rated" under-the-radar debutant sires to watch that can be found, among others, in the 2008 TSN Sire Stat book: MUTAKDDIM
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