|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS FEBRUARY 15, 2008 by Dick Powell Saturday's Risen Star S. (G3) at the Fair Grounds raised as many questions as it answered. Usually, you could wait a while before making any firm decisions since horses in the past would be seen on the track at least three or four more times before the first Saturday in May. But in today's brave new world of trainers wanting fewer prep races, we are going to have to make some hard decisions regarding the results of the Risen Star since we are unlikely to see the top contenders more than once or twice between now and May 3. The Risen Star, held on the main track at 1 1/16 miles, appeared to have been switched to the turf course as the large field bunched up early due to a turf race-like pace. The first quarter was :24.52 and the half in :49.50. With the front runners saving energy, few of the midpack horses were willing to make a bold challenge since they knew it would be met with more resistance than normal. Slow-paced races bring everyone together and in a big field of 11 it makes for some difficult trips. Even with the first half run in :49.50, the pace slowed down even more with the first six furlongs covered in 1:14.62, more than three full seconds slower than the Silverbulletday S. (G3) the race before. Garrett Gomez was trying to restrain Lecomte S. (G3) winner Z Fortune (Siphon) as much as possible, but his wide trip from post 10 forced his hand and he made his move with three furlongs to go. Calvin Borel had Blackberry Road (Gone West) down on the inside behind horses and loomed boldly at the top of the stretch. Unlike last year's Kentucky Derby (G1) or the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), every time Borel thought he had running room the hole closed up, and he was forced to check repeatedly. Shaun Bridgmohan bided his time with PYRO (Pulpit), the 9-10 favorite, and with a quarter mile to go it looked like he gave him too much to do and not enough time to do it. Dead last at the top of the stretch, Pyro began to accelerate but so did everyone else. With the slow pace, the Risen Star was going to turn into a kicker's race and with Bridgmohan's deft handling, Pyro weaved his way between horses to get clear on the outside with less than a furlong to go. Z Fortune had taken a clear lead, but Pyro blew by him effortlessly to win going away. The official comment was that he won "driving," but clearly he was eased up by Bridgmohan. The final time for the Risen Star was 1:44.68 and considering the Silverbulletday was run in 1:43.75 and GRASSHOPPER's (Dixie Union) Mineshaft H. (G3) in 1:43.46, it was relatively slow. Pyro only earned a BRIS Speed Rating of 96 while INDIAN BLESSING (Indian Charlie) earned a 101 for her win in the Silverbulletday, and Grasshopper earned a 102. Yes the pace was slow and yes, he had a wide trip, so the 96 is more of a raw number that can be adjusted upwards some. But, I have to question the legitimacy of the set of circumstances that he performed under. Pyro was second in three races behind eventual juvenile champion War Pass (Cherokee Run) last year. Training with Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart Strike) seems to have done him a world of good and I do like his pedigree for two-turn races. He quickens nicely, but success on the first Saturday in May can often be the ability to quicken while cruising as opposed to the ability to quicken while loping. Still, it was a good start to his sophomore campaign and I would guess that Steve Asmussen will race him again in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and then maybe the Blue Grass S. (G1). As impressive as Pyro was in the last quarter mile of the Risen Star, I was just as impressed with Indian Blessing's first quarter in the Silverbulletday. Breaking from post 7, she veered out a bit when the gate opened, but Gomez got her quickly into stride and she cruised up to press the early lead of Miss Missile (Golden Missile) while settling beautifully. I know, the first quarter was only :23.87, but Indian Blessing showed that she can use her brilliant speed (a half of :43 3/5 in her prior start) and then relax to where she is just gliding over the ground. She did not fight Gomez at all and was content to sit next to the 93-1 longshot down the backstretch. Gomez asked her to go around the far turn and Indian Blessing quickly opened up a clear lead and turned for home three lengths in front. She opened her advantage to four lengths at the eighth pole and then withstood the late rally of the classy Proud Spell (Proud Citizen) to win by a length. Now undefeated in five starts, Indian Blessing's an exciting filly that can use a bottomless supply of speed to her advantage. Unlike many speedy young horses, she has already learned to relax and carry it around two turns. She showed on Saturday that she doesn't have to have the lead and can settle down when Gomez wants her to. Trained to the minute by Bob Baffert, she'll probably come back here for the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) a month from now. She's now won in the slop, on synthetic and on a conventional dirt track. A foal of April 9, she's still growing, has a dosage index of 3.00 and I would not rule her out of a shot against males. She's that good.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
