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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT APRIL 3, 2008 by James Scully Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby (G1) produced a big-time Kentucky Derby (G1) contender in BIG BROWN (Boundary). Starting from an unfriendly post 12, the Richard Dutrow runner blitzed his rivals on the front end, winning by five lengths in tour-de-force fashion. He missed the nine-furlong track record by .37 seconds and earned a whopping 110 BRIS Speed rating. That figure is an absolute standout among Kentucky Derby prospects this season. There's no doubting Big Brown's talent. He's raced only three times, winning each by a landslide, but the bay colt never faced serious competition until the Florida Derby. There didn't appear to be much other speed entering the race, but FIERCE WIND (Dixie Union) and NISTLE'S CRUNCH (Van Nistelrooy) set sail for the front end when the gates opened, chasing Big Brown through fast early splits in :22 3/5 and :45 4/5. Those rivals were done in by their early exploits, but Big Brown kept on rolling, extending his margin at every pole from the half-mile mark. He was fun to watch. Big Brown could easily wind up the Kentucky Derby favorite. Blessed with speed and raw ability at this stage of his career, he's been a spectacular performer and talent goes a long way in any sport. Big Brown may simply take it to his foes once again at Churchill Downs on May 3, overcoming any perceived obstacles in his path. We can point out the potential drawbacks, but it's important to remember the big picture -- Big Brown is really good. Here's a look at what Big Brown must overcome. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby in the last 93 years with three or fewer lifetime starts, so lightly raced horses are up against it. We witnessed it last year with Curlin (Smart Strike), a stirring 10 1/2-length winner of the Arkansas Derby (G2) who entered the grueling 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby with only three starts under his belt. The chestnut colt would go on to win the Preakness (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) en route to Horse of the Year honors, but he wasn't close at the wire on the first Saturday in May, finishing eight lengths back of Street Sense in third. Curlin was a two-time stakes winner entering the Kentucky Derby, but Big Brown doesn't even own that much experience. The thrice-raced colt broke his maiden on the turf last year and opened his 2008 campaign in an off-the-turf allowance that contained only four other starters. Run style is another factor to consider because Big Brown has been on or very close to the lead in all his starts. We can speculate on his ability to rate effectively, but the Kentucky Derby is a tough spot to go experimenting with a new running style. If jockey Kent Desormeaux doesn't send him right to the front, he risks getting shuffled back during the early stages. Bellamy Road, a confirmed front runner who was favored in the 2005 running off a 17 1/2-length thrashing in the Wood Memorial (G1), avoided the extreme pace battle after the break and settled into fifth, 3 1/2 lengths back of the leader, after a half-mile in the Kentucky Derby. He wasn't able to offer his best run from just off the pace and wound up seventh. Big Brown, who essentially has had everything his own way by the far turn in his three starts, figures to be under serious pressure from the get-go unless he alters his run style and probably won't receive a breather if he does make the early lead at Churchill Downs. Big Brown will have to outrun his pedigree on Derby Day and stay healthy over the next five weeks. Sire Boundary was a six-furlong specialist on the track and has thrown mostly sprinters, so that's not encouraging for 10 furlongs. Big Brown's broodmare sire is champion miler Nureyev. His mares have produced long-distance specialists when paired with the right stallions, with 2004 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) hero Bago (Fr) serving as a prime example, but Boundary doesn't fit that bill. Big Brown's feet are also a major concern. After breaking his maiden by 11 1/4 lengths in early September, he was sidelined for more than six months by foot problems. Dutrow even said that Big Brown's foot was bothering him when the colt crushed allowance foes by 12 3/4 lengths on March 5. Quarter crack issues threaten to play a part in his preparation for the Kentucky Derby. We can cite all the evidence we want, but it might fly out the window come Derby Day. Big Brown could be that special. SMOOTH AIR (Smooth Jazz) turned in a gutsy performance for second in the Florida Derby, finishing 7 1/2 lengths ahead of third-placer TOMCITO (Street Cry [Ire]). Winner of the seven-furlong Hutcheson S. (G2) two starts back, the Bennie Stutts Jr. pupil is an improving runner who lays it on the line every time. He may not want any part of the 1 1/4-mile distance, but I won't be surprised to see the hard-knocking colt earn a minor award. Tomcito gave a good account of himself. Far back through six furlongs, he unleashed a late move to finish third by 3 1/4 lengths in his U.S. debut. Unraced since a Peruvian Group 1 stakes in mid-November, the Dante Zanelli was facing a huge class test off a lengthy layoff. He finished up strongly, outperforming late runners like Grade 1 winner MAJESTIC WARRIOR (A.P. Indy), who checked in sixth, and Tomcito obviously owns room for improvement in his upcoming starts. His problem is graded earnings. Unless his connections decide to pursue another prep (the $325,000 Lexington S. [G2] on April 19 is a logical option), Tomcito probably won't be able to make the Kentucky Derby field. Upcoming An action-packed weekend is on tap with the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Illinois Derby (G2) all slated for Saturday. The 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial will be an opportunity for redemption for champion juvenile WAR PASS (Cherokee Run). The Nick Zito runner didn't break well in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and found himself in an unaccustomed position tracking the pace into the first turn. He never made the lead and began to back up readily upon reaching the stretch, suffering his first defeat in a last-place effort. It's put-up-or-shut-up time for the brilliant two-year-old performer as another setback will likely force him out of Kentucky Derby consideration. Look for War Pass to go right to the front when the gates open and take his rivals as far as he can. Grade 2 winners COURT VISION (Gulch), TALE OF EKATI (Tale of the Cat) and ANAK NAKAL (Victory Gallop) will try to catch the speed at Aqueduct. COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) and EL GATO MALO (El Corredor), the top two sophomores based in California, highlight a field of 11 in the Santa Anita Derby. This will be the second meeting between the two rivals. Colonel John got the better of El Gato Malo by a half-length in the March 1 Sham S. (G3), but the pace was slow that afternoon. The late-running El Gato Malo could have the advantage this time around. Other contenders include California Derby winner and Louisiana Derby (G2) third-placer YANKEE BRAVO (Yankee Gentleman); Grade 2-placed speedball BOB BLACK JACK (Stormy Jack); and POLONIUS (Broken Vow), who will switch to Cushion Track following a sharp score in the grassy Pasadena S. DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) and ATONED (Repent) are the top draws in the seven-horse Illinois Derby. Top 10 1) PYRO -- Working well at Keeneland in advance of the Blue Grass (G1) 2) COLONEL JOHN -- Narrowly edged El Gato Malo in 2008 debut; expect a strong showing in Santa Anita Derby 3) BIG BROWN -- Distance and seasoning are questions, but he's a threat on talent alone 4) EL GATO MALO -- Late runner will receive a better set-up in the Santa Anita Derby 5) ADRIANO -- Watch out if he takes to the dirt 6) COURT VISION -- Non-threatening third in Fountain of Youth (G2), but figures to be much tighter in his upcoming efforts 7) VISIONAIRE -- Gotham winner is now headed to deep Blue Grass 8) ATONED -- Encouraging return effort in Tampa Bay Derby; he'll test Denis of Cork in Illinois Derby 9) DENIS OF CORK -- Lightly raced colt will receive final prep in Illinois Derby 10) YANKEE BRAVO -- Commendable third in Louisiana Derby; needs to pick up graded earnings in Santa Anita Derby
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