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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING APRIL 19, 2008 Pedigree ratings by Tim Holland The immediate reaction by many after last Saturday's upset in the Blue Grass S. (G1), and especially the poor showing of the heavy favorite Pyro (Pulpit), was, similar to the aftermath of last year's event, to label the race as meaningless and to blame the track surface for causing the confusion. However, while it must be said that handicapping on strict form has indeed been difficult through the current Keeneland meet -- leading to the low success-rate of favorites -- it has become apparent that pedigrees are playing a more important role in the outcome of races over the Polytrack surface. To some, pedigrees and their significance are easily understood, but to most, they are hard to quantify. To this end, a calculation using not only the sire and damsire's Sire Production Indexes but also the Female Family Index of the first two dams of the runners, and taking into account precocity and distance and surface preferences, can produce a final pedigree rating. While the ratings in theory range from 0-24, any figure higher than five represents a very respectable pedigree, higher than 12 is exceptional. The pedigree figures for the Blue Grass were as follows: Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway) 10.57 Being by Giant's Causeway and out of a Seeking the Gold mare, it may not be surprising that Cowboy Cal is highly rated, but the biggest boost to his figure comes from his dam being a half-sister to the Oaklawn H. (G1) winner and Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) second-place finisher, Behrens (Pleasant Colony). Checking in second was Miner's Claim, whose figure was earned by his dam, Sapphire N' Silk (Pleasant Tap) being the winner of the Prioress S. (G2) and herself being the dam of two stakes winners, including the Kentucky Cup Classic S. (G2) winner Shaniko (A.P. Indy). Monba's respectable pedigree figure is earned by his successful sire Maria's Mon and damsire Easy Goer, as well as a strong second dam who produced four stakes winners, including Secret Hello, winner of the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G1). The success of the pedigree ratings in the Blue Grass has been matched throughout the meet. Indeed, of the seven stakes races run over the Polytrack, two -- Lafayette S. winner Keep Laughing (Distorted Humor) ($12.40) and Rebellion (GB) (Mozart [Ire]) ($10.20), who won the Commonwealth S. (G2) -- were both top-rated. Little Belle (A.P. Indy) ($34.20), the shock winner of the Ashland S. (G1), and Beaumont S. (G2) heroine Ariege (Doneraile Court) ($8.40), were ranked second and, as seen above, Monba ($19.60) was the third choice in the Blue Grass, as well as Carriage Trail (Giant's Causeway) ($21.20) in the Doubledogdare S.(G3). A flat $2 win wager on the top three picks in each of these stakes races would have returned a profit of $64, or more than 150 per cent. Using the pedigree figure, selections follow for all the races on the Polytrack restricted to two- and three-year-olds for this weekend. Saturday: The 1ST race on the card is a maiden special weight for three-year-olds over 1 1/16 miles. #8 CARDINAL NATION (12.47, 15-1 ML) is a very strong pedigree play being rated nearly five points higher than all of his rivals. Cardinal Nation is by the above-average Lemon Drop Kid and is a three-quarter brother to the Grade 3 winner Rey de Cafe (Kingmambo) and is closely related to King Cugat (Kingmambo) from the family of Fast Play and Seeking the Gold. #11 SETTE E MEZZO (Dynaformer) (7.64, 3-1 ML) is the second pick and TIZZY (6.71, 7-2 ML), a son of Tiznow whose progeny have excelled over artificial surfaces, rates the third choice. The 3RD race is a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight with a field of 10 debuting two-year-old fillies. #6 A DAY FOR DANCING (9.86, 4-1 ML) is a solid selection being by Dance Master, who has done well with his first-time starters, and she is a full-sister to the stakes-winning juvenile Master of Disaster. The second pedigree pick here is #7 ROYAL CARD (Chapel Royal) (7.70*, 3-1 ML). This rating is accompanied by a star denoting that it could be upgraded since she is by a first-season sire who has no sire data. Indeed, this could be important since Chapel Royal's offspring have already made a promising start with one second-place finish at Keeneland on Wednesday. The 5TH race is the second division of the opener and here longshot #5 STONES RIVER (12.44, 15-1 ML) is narrowly picked over #3 MARL (12.16, 4-1 ML). At first glance Stones River, being by Monarchos out of a Silver Buck mare, might look light on pedigree until one considers that he is a half-brother to the millionaire and Beldame S. (G1) winner Unbridled Belle (Broken Vow). Marl, by Mizzen Mast, is out of the stakes winner Hastenby (Ire) (Tenby), and the third choice is DUKE OF PEARL (Unbridled's Song) (10.40, 12-1 ML), who is a half-brother to Vision and Verse. In the 7TH race, a six-furlong allowance event for three-year-old fillies, #9 GRAND BREEZE (7.60, 4-1 ML) is the pedigree pick. A daughter of Grand Slam, she is a half-sister to three stakes-placed performers and is out of a half-sister to Sam Who, whose 11 wins included the Los Angeles H. (G3). #8 TOMCITO (9.17, 6-1 ML) is the choice in the feature race of the day, the 1 1/16-mile Lexington S. (G2). He earns the top spot through being by Street Cry (Ire) and out of a half-sister to Canadian champion Numerous Times (Numerous) and stakes winner Ten a Penny (Gulch). Being a half-brother to Chelokee (Cherokee Run) ensures SALUTE THE SARGE (Forest Wildcat) (7.81, 4-1 ML) second place, but only narrowly ahead of RILEY TUCKER (7.74, 12-1 ML), a half-brother by the hot sire Harlan's Holiday to two stakes winners, and SAMBA ROOSTER (Songandaprayer) (7.26, 8/1 ML) who is out of a half-sister to the champion Heartlight No. One. The last three mentioned all may have stamina limitations and their figures suffered accordingly. Sunday: The opener is a claiming event for three-year-old fillies at about seven furlongs, and #4 SASSY STEPHANIE (5.37, 3-1 ML) is the pedigree pick. A daughter of the successful Cherokee Run, she is out of a mare by Storm Cat, and her second dam is the Grade 2 winner Via Borghese (Seattle Dancer). The 4TH race is a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies over six furlongs, and half the field is made up of first-time starters, including #3 CASERO (Came Home) (12.41, 6-1 ML), a half-sister to Bryan Station S. winner Vinista (Jade Hunter) from the same family as French Derby (Fr-G1) winner Hernando (Fr). #10 ANTEPOVA (9.06, 5-2 ML), who is out of a half-sister to Theatrical (Ire), is the narrowly second highest ranked runner, ahead of #1 CRIMSON HOPE (Forestry) (8.90, 12-1 ML), a half-sister to Indiana Oaks (G3) winner Tessa Blue (Awesome Again). Another six-furlong maiden will be the day's finale, and here #2 NOON DAY (12.71, 8-1 ML) takes top billing. A daughter of the fast Smoke Glacken, Noon Day is a half-sister to Quick Little Miss (Freud), who was second in the Hollywood Starlet S. (G1), and she is out of a half-sister to Greater Good (Intidab), winner of the Rebel S. (G3), and also the Golden Rod S. (G2) victress, Pure Clan (Pure Prize). #10 GLORIA GOODBODY (9.20, 20-1 ML) is the next choice in large part through her dam being a half-sister to Seldom Seen Sue (Lines of Power), who won the Milady H. (G1). Helped by her sire Officer's strong first-time starter record, the debutant #5 FORTUNATE (8.27, 12-1 ML) is the third highest ranked maiden.
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