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BELMONT REPORT JUNE 4, 2009 by James Scully The Belmont S. (G1) discussion starts with MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone), the 2-1 favorite on the morning line for the 141st running of the 1 1/2-mile classic. It's been quite the journey for the diminutive gelding. Named the Canadian champion two-year-old based on his exploits on Polytrack last season, Mine That Bird was transferred to Chip Woolley and sent to New Mexico following a last-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He opened 2009 with a pair of less-than-stellar performances, finishing second in the Borderland Derby and fourth in the Sunland Derby, but still had the graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby (G1) field based on his victory in the 2009 Grey S. (Can-G3). He was overlooked at 50-1 over the sloppy track at Churchill Downs. Mine That Bird dropped several lengths behind the next-to-last runner entering the clubhouse turn in the "Run for the Roses" and continued to lag far behind along the backstretch. With Calvin Borel at the helm, he unleashed a scintillating rail rally on the far turn to reach contention and blew past the leaders in the stretch, drawing off to an amazing 6 3/4-length upset. The surprise result had all the makings of a fluke, but Mine That Bird backed it up two weeks later over a fast track in the Preakness S. (G1). At Pimlico, Mine That Bird wasn't able to save ground, closing wide on the far turn and into the stretch, and was momentarily checked in traffic turning for home. He still offered another terrific late burst but ran out of room at the wire, falling a length short to Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro), who enjoyed a dream trip and was able to get away from her rivals at the top of the stretch before barely holding on. Mine That Bird still managed to flatter himself in defeat. The focus now shifts to Saturday's "Test of the Champion," and Mine That Bird will be a deserving favorite over the expansive oval at Belmont Park. Listed as the 2-1 choice on the morning line, his odds could be much lower come post time. A big question is how much did the Derby and Preakness take out of him? The Triple Crown takes a toll, but it's all a matter of speculation as to how much. Mine That Bird certainly appeared in fine fettle when breezing four furlongs in :50 at Churchill on Monday morning, recording a final eighth of a mile in :11 3/5 prior to galloping out strongly in 1:02 1/5 and 1:15. The work made Borel excited. Borel will bring plenty of confidence to the Belmont. After winning both the Derby and Kentucky Oaks (G1) at the beginning of May, he kept his momentum going two weeks later aboard Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, and he's remained hot in the interim. Borel went after the Memorial Day weekend programs at Churchill with a gusto, making a battle of it with Julien Leparoux for leading rider honors when capturing 13 races over a three-day period (May 23-25). While Mine That Bird supporters can claim that the jockey switch cost him the Preakness, his connections remained loyal. They realized that Borel gives them their best chance and always wanted him back. "You watch when he comes out on the track with (exercise rider) Charlie (Figueroa) or anybody else and he has his head up and is looking around," Woolley explained. "With Calvin, he just drops his neck and knows it is time to go to work. I think we are in good shape going into the Belmont." There's a chemistry factor going on. Humble to a fault, Borel is now showing some bravado, openly predicting victory following Mine That Bird's sharp workout on Monday. "We're gonna win, no questions asked," Borel stated. And he remained confident when meeting with the media on Tuesday in Manhattan, telling the large gathering at Madison Square Garden, "He'll win -- that's what we're here for." He has me believing in the "Bird." The Derby winner is the fastest horse in the field based on BRIS Speed ratings (110 career-best), and the Belmont seems best-suited to his breeding. Sire Birdstone turned in his greatest performance in the 2004 edition, denying Smarty Jones the Triple Crown with a one-length upset, and Mine That Bird could get rolling in the sweeping turns of "Big Sandy." Rest of the Contenders CHARITABLE MAN (Lemon Drop Kid) is the second-choice on the morning line at 3-1 and exits a commendable 3 3/4-length score over the track in the May 9 Peter Pan S. (G2). Three-for-three on dirt, the Virginia-bred colt also captured the seven-furlong Futurity S. (G2) at Belmont last September. Sidelined over the winter by an injury, the Edward Evans' homebred finished a disappointing seventh when making a belated three-year-old debut in the Blue Grass S. (G1). His connections contributed the setback to the synthetic track, but it was the colt's first effort at two turns. Charitable Man figures to have a tactical advantage with his speed. A front-running maiden winner, he tracked wicked fractions in the Peter Pan before pouncing, but there is very little pace in the Belmont field. He could wind up showing the way at a moderate tempo, or he figures to be sitting a close second under Alan Garcia. DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song) is another top win contender based upon the promise he displayed at Gulfstream Park earlier this year. He opened his racing career in January with a smart 5 3/4-length win and followed with an ultra-impressive, nine-furlong allowance victory that netted him a 107 BRIS Speed rating. In the Florida Derby (G1), the gray colt offered an excellent rally on the far turn to reach contention but got out-finished by Quality Road (Elusive Quality), who may have been the Derby favorite if not sidelined by a quarter-crack. After stumbling at the start of the Derby and getting checked repeatedly in a congested pack approaching the first turn, Dunkirk ultimately spit the bit and checked in 11th. That race should serve as a good learning experience. He owns more tactical speed than he's being given credit for and figures to sit a good stalking trip in midpack with John Velazquez. CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) was pinched at the start of the Derby and ground out a fifth-place finish from off the pace while making his first start on a conventional dirt track. He's been freshened since then by Jerry Hollendorfer and is eligible to run better. Bred to relish a fast track, the Grade 3 winner appears to be training forwardly in preparation and will pick up the services of Garrett Gomez. SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) broke his maiden three starts back and stepped up with a top-class showing when making his first start against winners in the Arkansas Derby (G2), rallying boldly for third. He lacked seasoning when facing 18 rivals on Derby Day, but the chestnut colt gave a fine account of himself in sixth, losing a lot of ground while wide on both turns. Trainer Tim Ice wisely freshened his charge for the Belmont, and Summer Bird may continue to show more. FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) is the best hope of two entrants from D. Wayne Lukas. Runner-up in the Lane's End S. (G2) over Polytrack, the bay colt was no factor in the Arkansas Derby or Kentucky Derby, but he suddenly found his form in the Preakness, rallying for fourth-place honors. The added distance doesn't look like a detriment, and Flying Private deserves some consideration for the bottom of the exotics. MR. HOT STUFF (Tiznow) is an intriguing longshot. A full brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Colonel John, the WinStar homebred owns only a maiden win, but the late-developing colt displayed promise when finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Sham S. (G3). He trained forwardly on dirt for the Derby, but never fired over the sloppy track when 15th. Colonel John ran well below expectations in the 2008 Derby, but he moved forward significantly in his second dirt start, capturing the Travers S. (G1). Mr. Hot Stuff will look to do the same. MINER'S ESCAPE (Mineshaft), who along with BRAVE VICTORY (Lion Heart) is one of two outsiders trained by two-time Belmont winner Nick Zito, may come out winging it from the start under Jose Lezcano. Zito upset last year's Belmont in wire-to-wire fashion with Da' Tara (Tiznow), and Miner's Escape exits a front-running win in the Federico Tesio S. Peter Pan third-placer Brave Victory will likely want no part of the 12-furlong distance, and LUV GOV (Ten Most Wanted) is probably in too deep. The Lukas trainee needed 10 starts and a sloppy track to break his maiden, and he was no factor when eighth in the Preakness. Analysis After discounting his chances last week, I've come to my senses with Mine That Bird. The unproven competition is a big reason. Charitable Man may have been visually impressive last time out, but he's never earned big Speed ratings while defeating questionable rivals. And I don't like the fact that he's never won around two turns. Despite an encouraging pedigree, the 1 1/2-mile distance may be a problem. Dunkirk is even a bigger question mark. He lacks a stakes victory, and all of his wins have come at Gulfstream Park. The lightly raced colt may not be ready for his best effort at Saturday's marathon distance. I don't see much incentive in taking a short price with either, and the Belmont is ripe for an upset if Mine That Bird falters. For me, though, it's all about the little gelding and Borel. The 42-year-old Cajun will seek to become the first jockey to sweep all three Triple Crown races in the same year with different horses, and he'll be counting on a big turn of foot to accomplish the task. Mine That Bird won't be as far back early while traveling in the last flight of runners on Saturday, and I'll look for him to kick it in like he did in the Derby and Preakness. I'll make a straight win wager on Mine That Bird and look for value in the exotics over Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff. Enjoy the Belmont!
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