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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 21, 2009 by Dick Powell Sometimes results seem improbable. A longshot wins a race and everyone is left scratching their heads in disbelief. Even after the race is long over it still makes no sense. I always go back through past performances to see what was it about the winning horse or the running of the race that I missed. Was there an obvious clue that I missed or was it the beginning of a trend that might be worth watching. There have been upsets in two of Saratoga's premier Grade 1 stakes races that upon closer examination should not have been so improbable. Let's take out the magnifying glass and find out why. In the Whitney H. (G1) on August 8, a field of six older males went to the gate to go nine furlongs on the main track. Asiatic Boy (Arg) (Not for Sale) was a morning scratch leaving six to go, but every one of them had major flaws in their recent form. From the rail out, Smooth Air (Smooth Jazz) was second in his last two starts and looked like he would get a perfect trip sitting behind the early speed. He was a multiple Grade 2 stakes winner that placed in the Metropolitan H. (G1) going a mile two starts back and the Florida Derby (G1) last year. Nice horse but not the greatest Grade 1 stakes credentials. BULLSBAY (Tiznow) was beaten badly last out in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) on a synthetic track and was fourth in the Stephen Foster H. (G1) prior to that. He won the Alysheba S. (G3) at Churchill going two turns in May for his only graded stakes score. Macho Again (Macho Uno) won the Stephen Foster last out and two other Grade 2 stakes in the past two years. When he's good, he's very good, but he has a lot of unplaced finishes on his resume. Tizway (Tiznow) was making his stakes debut, and despite two fast wins in his last three starts, he seemed overmatched. Dry Martini (Slew Gin Fizz) is a one-dimensional closer that won the Suburban H. (G2) in his last start and is usually a stretch factor. The field was filled out with Commentator (Distorted Humor) who won the Whitney last year and in 2005 but had not run competitive speed figures in his last three starts. The key to having the Whitney right was to recognize that this was not a vintage running. It might be listed as a Grade 1 stakes, but this year's renewal was probably between a Grade 2 and a Grade 3. If you made that determination, you had a chance to come up with the winner because you needed to recognize that you did not need to have Grade 1 ability or experience to win this year's running. In retrospect, and this is red-boarding at its worst but illuminating at best, Bullsbay, breaking from post 2 and only carrying 116 pounds, was well worth his nearly 19-1 odds as opposed to the four "logical" runners that attracted most of the wagering. Throw out his poor race on the synthetic track at Hollywood Park and his last three races on dirt going two turns made him competitive. And, he's sired by superior distance source Tiznow, whose horses do better as they get older. The point is that you didn't have to be a true Grade 1 stakes horse to win this year's Whitney since it did not come up, in my retrospective opinion, a Grade 1 stakes race. Last Saturday, a similar event took place. The Sword Dancer Invitational S. is listed as a Grade 1 stakes race, but for various reasons it usually isn't. Run in close proximity to the Arlington Million (G1), it usually gets the second string of the top East Coast older turfers. This year was no exception. Grand Couturier (GB) (Grand Lodge) won this race last year as well as a dominant victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1). Since then, he has been unplaced in his last three starts. Gentleman Chester (Chester House) seemed hopelessly overmatched. Lauro (Ger) (Monsun) was a German shipper that won the Sky Classic (Can-G2) at Woodbine last October and was second behind the speedy Presious Passion (Royal Anthem) in the United Nations S. (G1). Better Talk Now (Talkin Man) was trying to become the first 10-year-old to win a Grade 1 stakes race in North America. Rising Moon (Runaway Groom) had not run on the turf in two and a half years. Americain (Dynaformer) was making his American debut off a sharp win in a Group 2 at Longchamp going almost two miles. TELLING (A.P. Indy) had not won a race of any kind all year and his trainer Steve Hobby was making his first start at Saratoga. Quijano (Ger) (Acatenango) is a world traveler that was third in the Man O' War (G1) last out behind GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat). Brass Hat (Prized) is an eight-year-old that won the Louisville H. (G3) two starts back going the Sword Dancer's distance of 1 1/2 miles. And, Musketier (Ger) (Acatenango) won the Singspiel (Can-G3) at Woodbine two starts back at the Sword Dancer distance. The Sword Dancer had 10 starters and most did not have Grade 1 ability, and the ones that did had seen better days. Even now, I can't come up with Telling. He did show some ability last year going 12 furlongs on the turf, but I couldn't even deem him a Grade 3 turf horse. The pace of the Sword Dancer was extremely fast and contentious causing a meltdown in the stretch. The horses that were in the first five after a mile finished in the last five at the wire as Javier Castellano found clear sailing for Telling and won easily over Better Talk Now ,who might have run his last race. Telling paid $68 to win and left a lot of people scratching their heads. In my mind, the only way to come up with him was to recognize that this was not a true Grade 1 stakes race and lower your expectations for the winner. On a daily basis, many first level allowance or claiming races come up the same way. A $50,000 claimer may turn out to be a weak one and then next time those horses run they might be vulnerable to a hot horse moving up in class. Not all races are created equal, no matter what class level we assign to them, and the last two "Grade 1" stakes run at Saratoga proved it.
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