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JUVENILE FILLIES DIARY

SEPTEMBER 16, 2009

by James Scully

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) will make a second straight appearance at Santa Anita on November 6, and history suggests that this year's winner will be based in Southern California. West Coast lasses won the first three runnings of the race on the old dirt track at Santa Anita, and Stardom Bound (Tapit) continued the tradition with an authoritative 1 1/2-length score over the Pro-Ride in 2008.

California: MI SUENO (Pulpit) established herself as the early favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies with victories in the Darley Debutante (G1) and Sorrento S. (G3). After recording a pair of runner-up finishes in maiden special weight events at Hollywood Park, the Eric Guillot-trained bay took a big step forward in the 6 1/2-furlong Sorrento at Del Mar, displaying a dazzling turn of foot off the far turn to win going away by 6 1/2 lengths. She didn't offer the same electric move in the seven-furlong Darley Debutante, but she responded admirably when called upon by jockey Michael Baze in the stretch, rallying to a one-length decision.

With a pedigree and running style suited to longer distances, Mi Sueno looms extremely large for the rest of the season. She's bred to excel, being the first first foal out of millionaire Madcap Escapade (Hennessy), winner of the 2004 Ashland S. (G1), and the Southern Equine Stable colorbearer will likely make her first start at a route in the 1 1/16-mile Oak Leaf S. (G1) on October 4. If she asserts her superiority in that final prep, Mi Sueno will head into the Breeders' Cup as the heavy favorite, similar to Stardom Bound last year.

BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) offered a belated rally for runner-up honors in the Darley Debutante, and jockey Tyler Baze was ecstatic afterward, stating, "If she ran straight today, I win easy. But she's so green; she was all over the place. But, oh, is she talented. Very talented. She's the kind that can win the Breeders' Cup."

We're not as high on her as the rider, but Blind Luck merits serious respect in a thin juvenile filly division out west. After earning a 101 BRIS Speed rating in her career debut, a 13 1/4-length romp over maiden claiming rivals at Calder, the chestnut was sold and transferred to Jerry Hollendorfer. She made a seamless transition to synthetic tracks in her first start at Del Mar, capturing a starter allowance by 3 1/4 lengths, but she never looked like a serious win threat last time, narrowly grabbing second in the final strides. The one-run closer still gave a fine account of herself while stepping up in class, and we'll watch to see if Blind Luck continues to improve in two-turn events.

A filly to watch from the maiden ranks is ALWAYS A PRINCESS (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]), who made a strong impression when capturing her career debut at Del Mar on September 5. After breaking poorly, the Bob Baffert pupil began to make up ground on the far turn of the 5 1/2-furlong event and really kicked it in through the stretch, flying past rivals to score by three parts of a length. She registered a 95 BRIS Speed rating, one of the best numbers earned by a two-year-old at Del Mar this summer, and we'll give her a big chance against stakes rivals this fall.

Hollywood Juvenile Championship (G3) winner and Sorrento runner-up NECESSARY EVIL (Harlan's Holiday) exited a sixth in the Darley Debutante with an injury and will be sidelined the rest of the year.

New York: HOT DIXIE CHICK (Dixie Union) made a splash when breaking her maiden by 5 3/4 lengths in her second career start, establishing a new track record for 5 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, and carried her momentum to Saratoga, posting a smashing 6 1/4-length win in the Schuylerville S. (G3) prior to a comfortable 1 3/4-length decision in the Spinaway S. (G1). She's very quick, racing on or close to the pace in all four career starts, and the dark bay has garnered excellent BRIS Speed ratings of 101-104-110 in her last three efforts.

Hot Dixie Chick was clearly the star of New York this summer, but her status for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies is in serious doubt. Owner Barbara Banke is the wife of Jess Jackson, whose disdain for synthetic tracks is well-chronicled, and trainer Steve Asmussen could point the East Coast division leader toward the one-mile Frizette S. (G1) at Belmont Park on October 10 and possibly wrapping up her juvenile campaign in the Golden Rod S. (G2) at Churchill in late November. That wouldn't be good for Thoroughbred racing, though, and her connections can find out whether she handle a synthetic track, as well as a two-turn distance, in the October 9 Alcibiades S. (G1) at Keeneland. If she passes that 1 1/16-mile test, there's no reason why Hot Dixie Chick shouldn't be headed to California.

BEAUTICIAN (Dehere) made a run at Hot Dixie Chick in both Schuylerville and Spinaway before giving way in the stretch, but the late-running gray lass finished a clear second both times. We like her turn of foot and can easily envision her being a major factor this fall if she handles synthetic ground. The Alcibiades is next for the Kenny McPeek runner.

After garnering an off-the-turf maiden special weight event at Belmont Park, WORSTCASESCENARIO (Forbidden Apple) remained perfect with a 13-1 upset in the August 19 Adirondack S. (G2), racing close to the pace before drawing off to 4 1/4-length win. Trainer Richard Violette elected to bypass the Spinaway in favor of Saturday's Matron S. (G2), and Worstcasescenario, who earned a 100 BRIS Speed rating last time, will be a very logical contender for the Breeders' Cup if she runs well in the seven-furlong event. The Florida-bred miss is bred to relish turf, so she's a perfect candidate to handle the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita.

At Monmouth Park, TRUTH AND JUSTICE (Yes It's True) dominated the recent Sorority S., posting a 3 1/2-length decision, and HIDDEN EXPRESSION (Yonaguska) turned heads with her three-length thumping in the August 8 Colleen S., but both fillies seem better suited for sprint distances.

AWESOME MARIA (Maria's Mon) is a Saratoga maiden winner we will be watching for in her upcoming stakes appearance. After missing by a half-length in her career bow on July 30, she stretched out to seven furlongs successfully on August 21, rallying from just off the pace to an impressive 8 1/4-length win in the slop. From a strong female family, the Stanley Hough-trained gray looked like a filly who will only continue to improve at longer distances.

Midwest: The connections of SHE BE WILD (Offlee Wild) were lucky that she wasn't claimed for $40,000 from her career debut on May 30. Favored at 9-5 that afternoon, she rolled to a 7 1/4-length win over Arlington Park's Polytrack as Wayne Catalano got away with one. The dark bay went to straight to stakes company in her next start, taking the August 8 Top Flight S. by a 5 1/4-length margin, and established herself as a legitimate Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies contender with a convincing 5 3/4-length triumph in the September 8 Arlington-Washington Lassie S. (G3).

She Be Wild registered a terrific 97 BRIS Speed number last time, and stalker is bred to easily handle the 8 1/2-furlong distance of the Juvenile Fillies. Catalano has won the Juvenile Fillies before, sending out Dreaming of Anna in 2006, and there's plenty to like about his filly this year. The Alcibiades would serve as the perfect prep for her engagement at Santa Anita, but Catalano recently announced plans to train the filly up to the Breeders' Cup. Needless to say, that decision will be open to plenty of second-guessing if She Be Wild runs poorly in early November.

The strategy misfired with C. S. Silk (Medaglia d'Oro) last year. Sent off as 6-1 third choice, the 2008 Lassie winner never fired off the lengthy layoff, checking in seventh over the Pro-Ride, and went off form badly afterward. Caressing, who won the 2000 Juvenile Fillies as the longest shot on the board at 47-1, is the only winner to make her final prep at Arlington, but the Lassie was held on September 30 that year. She Be Wild will have an extra month of inactivity to overcome, and Catalano didn't subject Dreaming of Anna to such a lengthy time on the sidelines before her main engagement. That filly also had the advantage of racing over different tracks, winning stakes at Woodbine and Colonial Downs prior to her success at Churchill Downs. She Be Wild has raced exclusively in Chicago, and she'll be thrown into a difficult assignment at Santa Anita following a nine-week hibernation.

Turf:  We'll take a closer look at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in our next installment. With few stakes events so far, the main contenders for the one-mile turf affair will continue to emerge in the coming weeks, and we'll obviously keep an eye on any possible European invaders. Maram (Sahm) did the home team proud last year, withstanding the late run of the Aidan O'Brien-trained Heart Shaped (Storm Cat) by a nose in the inaugural edition.

Upcoming: One thing we learned last year on the Pro-Ride was the importance of synthetic experience. No horse that prepped for the Breeders' Cup on dirt was successful, so that naturally stamps the October 4 Oak Leaf and October 9 Alcibiades as key races to follow. We won't summarily dismiss any horses making their last start in New York, but they do appear to be at a disadvantage.


 


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