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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER 25, 2009 by Dick Powell Andre Fabre has won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) a record seven times. When he shows up with a horse at Longchamp on the first Sunday of October in Paris you must pay attention. And when he wins a major Arc prep you must really stand up and take notice. A couple of weeks ago, Fabre won the Prix Niel (Fr-G2) with CAVALRYMAN (Halling) for new client Godolphin and it looked like he would be a major factor in the Arc. Having won the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1) in his previous start, he is coming into the Arc using the same path as Fabre's last Arc winner, Rail Link, in 2006. Fabre's presence in the Arc is similar to Bart Cummings in the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) or the late Woody Stephens in the Belmont S. (G1). When he speaks, we listen and this week Fabre made some shocking comments about the Arc and his own chances. He told the Racing Post in Monday's edition that "Cavalryman is a nice horse, but I think that he is more likely to finish in a place than to win. He obviously does not have the class of SEA THE STARS (Cape Cross [Ire]). I am sometimes optimistic but I am realistic as well. I would be satisfied with second." The last sentence of Fabre's candid analysis of the Arc is even more telling. "He will improve from the Niel to the Arc, but every horse improves from race to race -- he will not suddenly change into a different horse," Fabre said. With the ground in Paris expected to be firmer than usual, it's hard to argue with him. **** Speaking of the Racing Post, they had a story in it last week that was totally news to me. In an article about the infamous THE GREEN MONKEY (Forestry), writer David Ashforth mentioned that after being purchased for a record $16 million in the Fasig-Tipton Calder Two-Year-Olds-in-Training sale, he suffered a spine injury at Churchill Downs. I read a lot, and don't always remember everything that I read, but that was the first time I had ever seen any reference to that sort of injury and explains why he did not make his career debut until a year and a half after he was purchased and failed to win a race in three attempts. I did watch the video of his one-furlong breeze back then and if he had wings he would have taken off. Good job by Ashforth. **** Sea the Stars might have some competition for the best-bred horse in the world title. This past week, DELUXE (Storm Cat) won her career debut at Chantilly for owner/breeder Juddmonte Farms going a mile. She's sired by all-time great Storm Cat out of broodmare of the year Hasili (Ire) (Kahyasi). Hasili, to the cover of Danehill produced Dansili (GB), a multiple group stakes winner who would have won the 2000 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) with a clean trip; Banks Hill (GB), who won the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) in 2001 as well as the Coronation S. (G1) and the 2002 Prix Jacques le Marois (Fr-G1) against males; Intercontinental (GB), who won the 2005 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf as well as the Matriarch S. (G1) in 2004; Cacique (Ire), who won the Man o' War S. (G1) and Manhattan H. (G1) in 2006; and Champs Elysees (GB), who won last year's Hollywood Turf Cup (G1) and Northern Dancer Turf S. (Can-G1). To the cover of Green Desert, Hasili produced Heat Haze (GB) winner of the 2003 Matriarch and the Beverly D. S. (G1). To show you how inexact the science of breeding is, Hasili was winless in six starts. **** Rick Dutrow Jr. won the Futurity S. (G2) on Saturday at Belmont Park with Paul Pompa Jr.'s D' FUNNYBONE (D'wildcat) by almost five lengths and is the leader of East Coast juveniles. Another Pompa juvenile was ultra-impressive earlier on the card when the Todd Pletcher-trained CONDEMNED (Speightstown) won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden in his career debut by 4 3/4 lengths in the very fast time of 1:03.49 as much the best. The runner-up to Condemned bears watching. MUHAASEB (Ghostzapper) broke sharply for Alan Garcia then dropped back around the turn when he did not respond to Garcia's urging. Just when it looked like he would drop out of the race, Muhaaseb rallied in the stretch to pass two horses to be a clear second. He is out of a stakes-winning dam that has produced Runway Model (Petionville), winner of the Alcibiades S. (G2) and the Golden Rod S. (G2) as a juvenile and Mambo Train (Kingmambo), who was second in the Washington Park H. (G2). **** Pretty Discreet (Private Account) won the Alabama S. (G1) for owner/breeder Paul Robsham in 1995. When she went to the breeding shed, she produced Pretty Wild (Wild Again), winner of the Frisk Me Now S. at four going a mile and the Mr. Prospector S. at five going six furlongs. Three years later she produced the incredibly-talented Discreet Cat (Forestry) who won the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2), the Jerome H. (G2) and the Cigar Mile (G1). Later, she produced Discreet Treasure (El Prado [Ire]) who was second in the Westchester H. (G3). To the cover of Awesome Again, she produced Discreetly Awesome, who never made it to the races. Robsham bred Discreetly Awesome to Maria's Mon and got AWESOME MARIA. After just missing in her career debut at Saratoga, Awesome Maria came back there to break her maiden by over eight lengths going seven furlongs in the mud. Trainer Stanley Hough entered her in the Matron S. (G2) last Saturday at Belmont and she easily handled a field of nine. With her pedigree and cruising speed she'll be even tougher when Hough stretches her out. Pretty Discreet was bred to Mineshaft three years ago and produced DISCREETLY MINE. Discreetly Mine broke his maiden in his third attempt at Saratoga and despite lots of traffic problems he rallied nicely for second in the Futurity giving Hough/Robsham a strong hand going into the fall.
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