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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 9, 2009 by Dick Powell A great weekend of racing around the world was highlighted by SEA THE STARS' (Cape Cross [Ire]) brilliant win in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). Over here, Belmont Park hosted their Super Saturday of stakes races; all of which had Breeders' Cup ramifications. Unfortunately for NYRA, heavy showers hit halfway through Saturday's card and turned the main track sloppy and the turf course extremely soft. In the Beldame S. (G1), a field of five went postward with four betting interests and the public made MUSIC NOTE (A.P. Indy) the prohibitive 1-5 favorite. Coming off a handy victory in the seven-furlong Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga, she showed two Grade 1 stakes victories last year at Belmont going the nine-furlong distance of the Beldame so the stretch-out was not a factor in anyone's handicapping. Under Rajiv Maragh, who rode her for the first time last out, Music Note stalked the modest pace set by Unbridled Belle (Broken Vow), winner of the Beldame two years ago, and took over turning for home to win by 2 1/4 easy lengths. Unbridled Belle, with blinkers removed, showed interest all the way and probably earned a trip to the Breeders' Cup. The Vosburgh S. (G1) was next up and only four horses showed up for the six furlong sprint on a very sloppy track. Fabulous Strike (Smart Strike) was the 3-5 favorite off a sharp win in the A.G. Vanderbilt H. (G2) at Saratoga and, at his favorite distance of six furlongs, figured to prove a tougher customer. Go Go Shoot (Songandaprayer) took the lead down the backstretch after breaking a bit flat-footed from the rail, and he enabled Ramon Dominguez to stalk aboard Fabulous Strike. The first quarter was only :22.33 and the half was a pokey :45.38, so the rain did not speed up the track and Fabulous Strike got leg weary after taking the lead in the stretch. Still, Munnings (Speightstown) was not making up any ground while stalking in third and it was left up to KODIAK KOWBOY (Posse) to pose the final threat. Despite a terrific wet-track pedigree, Kodiak Kowboy had never won on a wet track, but this one seemed to be more tiring than usual and Shaun Bridgmohan got him up in the final strides to win by a half-length. The final time of 1:10.08 was the slowest running of the Vosburgh since it was shortened six years ago. The first two finishers will likely skip the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1). What was impossible was Belmont listing the track for the Vosburgh as "fast." Correctly, the Equibase chart lists it as "sloppy" and anyone watching Belmont before the Vosburgh was run could see how wet the track was. The Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1) for fillies and mares going 10 furlongs on a bog known as the inner turf course produced some of the slowest fractions seen in a New York Grade 1 stakes; at least until the next race was run. With the European-like turf conditions, the public made Moneycantbuymelove (Ire) (Pivotal) the lukewarm favorite off a third in a Group 1 stakes last out at Goodwood. PURE CLAN (Pure Prize) was the third choice in the betting even though she was a Grade 1 stakes winner on the grass and showed a terrific second on the Belmont inner turf course that was rated yielding in last year's Garden City S. (G1). Edgar Prado put Leamington (Pleasant Tap) on the lead and they waltzed through a first quarter of :26.81, the half in :53.81 and three quarters in 1:20.43. Julien Leparoux had Pure Clan back in fifth in the field of seven, but kept her off the inside where the going was the spongiest and timed his move well around the far turn. When he asked her for her run after straightening away, she responded with a strong kick to run down Criticism (GB) (Machiavellian) and win going away. The problem that you will have when these fillies run back in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) is the total change in weather and turf condition that they will face at Santa Anita. I would look at it as a good conditioner for those that ran well and ignore everything else. The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational S. (G1) was next up and the rain continued to soften the turf. Run at 1 1/2 miles on the Widener course, there is no way it would have stayed on the turf if it had not been a Grade 1 stakes with a major role in preparing its entrants for the upcoming Breeders' Cup Turf (G1). In international racing, the course would have been viewed as muddy. The amazing thing about rain-soaked turf is that it is not always the battle of strength that logic would seem to dictate. Often times, the footing is so treacherous that a horse that sets the pace is able to maintain it while everyone else is spinning their wheels trying to make a move. I thought the turf conditions set up perfectly for Musketier (Ger) (Acatenango) with his speed and strong soft-turf pedigree. Unfortunately, Prado rode him passively early and did not take advantage of the conditions. Robby Albarado did, going right to the front aboard INTERPATATION (Langfuhr) and setting fractions of :26.01, :54.22 and 1:22.20. With the race half over, it looked like it was setting up for Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat), who was looking for his fifth straight Grade 1 stakes victory on the turf. Dominguez had him clear on the outside and made his move around the far turn. The pace actually "quickened" around the far turn with the fifth quarter run in :25.80, so even though they were going slow they were now going less slow than they had been. In the stretch, Gio Ponti drew abreast of Interpatation and was going to go right on by. At one point, I thought Interpatation was going to fall down from exhaustion as it looked like he took a bad step at the eighth pole, but he incredibly surged forward and drew away to a 1 3/4-length victory at odds of 43-1. It was his first victory in two years and just like the Flower Bowl, it's hard to draw any hard conclusions from his win and the others' defeat. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), the public bet on three of the seven entrants and ignored the other four. The betting favorite was Belmont (G1) and Travers (G1) winner SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) at 6-5, followed by Macho Again (Macho Uno) and Quality Road (Elusive Quality) at 26-10. None of the others were below 11-1. Going to the starting gate, Quality Road began to melt down. After being reluctant to load, he then became downright nasty as he violently kicked out with his back feet as the gate crew attempted to load him. After a few scary tries, he finally went in as Johnny Velazquez pulled his left ear back to try to distract him. Tizway (Tiznow) took the lead out of the gate that is situated midway around the far turn and was immediately pressed by Quality Road. They strode through a first quarter in :24.96 and a half in :49.73 as the Belmont main track took on more water and was a few seconds slower than normal. In the Haskell Invitational (G1), Kent Desormeaux kept Summer Bird closer to the pace and even though he was no match for Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro), it was a new dimension for the former one-run closer. That tactical speed was used to his best advantage when he won the Travers and in the Gold Cup, Desormeaux had him third on the outside waiting to pounce. Unlike many closers that lose their punch when they use energy early, Summer Bird has learned to judicially use his speed and save enough for the finish. Give a lot of credit to Desormeaux who has been able to keep him relaxed and trainer Tim Ice's decision to add blinkers four starts back. Quality Road had a short lead for most of the far turn with Summer Bird breathing down his neck. The two turned for home as a team, and Summer Bird gradually was able to pull away to a one-length victory over a very game and determined Quality Road. Summer Bird's final time of 2:02.51 earned him a career best BRIS Speed rating of 112 and considering how much ground he lost racing out in the middle of the track, it was a terrific performance. If Quality Road ever settles down before the race and can conserve some of his energy, he'll be able to display his boundless running talent. He's come up short in both attempts at 10 furlongs, but he still battles on through the stretch as if the distance is not his enemy. In Paris on Sunday, Sea the Stars raced into history by winning the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp and completed a season of European racing unseen in the modern era. At this point, the only question is whether he'll try to raise the bar even farther by coming over here to contest the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)? Normally, I would say he wouldn't as European horses are trained to be at their peak for the Arc and anything else is a risky afterthought. But, there is a chance that Mick Kinane was right when he said that the Arc was his easiest race and it could lead to all signs pointing for a trip to Santa Anita. Trainer John Oxx has done a masterful job with Sea the Stars' training and management, and it would be very unlike him to ship to a hot climate for a race on a surface he's never raced on. But if he came out of the race as fresh as it appears to be, the temptation to ship him to southern California might be too much to resist. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but at least the circumstances seem favorable for it.
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