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FILLY & MARE TURF DIARY NOVEMBER 4, 2009 As noted in the companion Turf Diary, it's no mean feat to defend a Breeders' Cup title. So far, in the brief 10-year history of the Filly & Mare Turf (G1), only one distaffer has managed to win it twice -- the exceptional Ouija Board (GB) (2004, 2006) -- and even she couldn't prevail in successive years. The historical omens, therefore, are not overwhelmingly encouraging for defending champion FOREVER TOGETHER (Belong to Me) to repeat, but they are favorable for a very strong showing. She is only the third distaffer to attempt a repeat bid, and both previous title defenses resulted in second-place finishes. Banks Hill (GB), the 2001 heroine, was runner-up in 2002, and Ouija Board filled that same spot behind Intercontinental (GB) in the 2005 running. A parallel suggests itself in the light of this evidence. Like Banks Hill and Ouija Board in their title defenses, Forever Together does not enter the Filly & Mare Turf in unimpeachable form. Banks Hill, although still strong overall at four, had been beaten into a distant third a couple of times that season, and Ouija Board had her campaign derailed for a time by injury, and had only one easy race back before lining up in the 2005 Breeders' Cup. Forever Together has had perfectly valid excuses for her past two losses, but the point remains that she is not on a hot streak at present. Moreover, I contend that this year's renewal is deeper. First, the European representation is far more formidable, and perhaps even her fellow Americans are an improved bunch. Champion Wait a While was my top selection in 2008, but she ran well below her best after spiking a fever during her preparation, and was still beaten only one length. I can't dispel the conviction that an in-form Wait a While would have won that race. So, who is the likeliest challenger to dethrone Forever Together?
Ignoring Midday's poor third on atrocious ground in the Irish Oaks (Ire-G1), I turn to her outstanding victory in the Nassau S. (Eng-G1) at roughly this 10-furlong trip. She took the race by the scruff of the neck, so to speak, with an early move and proceeded to rout a solid field, including Ladies' Classic (G1) contender Rainbow View (Dynaformer) and several sharp older distaffers. At first blush, I was disappointed in her third in the Prix de l'Opera (Fr-G1) on Arc Day, but upon further reflection, I realized that it was her first run back off a two-month holiday. Midday did not run at all badly that day, rolling to the front in the stretch, but just lacked the fitness to close the deal and was collared late. Cecil subsequently noted that he had miscalculated for the Opera, that she was blowing hard afterward, and that she was in much stronger shape the week after the race. According to all reports, Midday has been impressing on the gallops in advance of her Breeders' Cup foray. The distance and ground should be ideal for her, and she promises to get a beautiful trip in the slipstream of fellow Juddmonte runner VISIT (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]), who could go to the front in a race without a lot of early speed. Midday will steal a march on the deep-closing Forever Together, and as a top-notch filly at up to 12 furlongs, she certainly won't stop. The royally-bred filly, whose dam is a half-sister to Oaks star Reams of Verse and multiple Group 1 victor Elmaamul, should add another laurel to her impressive family. 2nd -- I'm going to stick with a longstanding favorite of mine, PURE CLAN (Pure Prize), for the runner-up spot. The fact that she posted an emphatic score in the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) at Belmont last time out, an historically key prep, only confirms my great respect for this Bob Holthus filly. I have a strong suspicion that if Pure Clan resided on either of the coasts, rather than flyover country, she'd have a higher profile in this division. The Midwestern-based filly, who has had a couple of tough trips when second in last year's Garden City S. (G1) and third in the Beverly D. S. (G1) two back, has experienced the highs and lows of racing in California. Pure Clan overcame traffic problems to capture the 2008 American Oaks Invitational (G1), but threw in the worst effort of her otherwise consistent career when trailing throughout in last year's Filly & Mare Turf. I expect her to leave that dreadful performance well behind her for two reasons: first, it's a tough spot for a three-year-old, unless she's a bona fide European celebrity. A more conservative approach, i.e., aiming for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland, would have been wiser. Second, Holthus has revealed that the excessive heat sapped her last year. The Breeders' Cup was her second exhausting trip out West, and she had been knocked out after her initial trek for the American Oaks as it was. This year, she's older, stronger, fresher, and making her first jaunt to California. There is ample precedent for distaffers to put forth a vastly better showing in the Filly & Mare Turf the following year: Perfect Sting, only sixth in 1999, came back to win in 2000, and Starine (Fr), a wretched 10th in 2001, rebounded to thwart Banks Hill in 2002. Needless to say, I'm also buoyed by Garrett Gomez taking the mount aboard Pure Clan. 3rd -- FOREVER TOGETHER is simply too accomplished to dismiss, especially because she'll finally get a firm turf course that she is known to enjoy. I've written at length about her two Diana S. (G1) victories, as well as her subsequent losses in the Canadian S. (Can-G2) and First Lady S. (G1), in this season's Filly & Mare Turf Diaries, so I won't belabor the points here. Through it all, the Jonathan Sheppard mare routinely delivers a potent late kick. I fully expect her to do so again here, but with the lack of pace on tap, and a top-tier stayer in Midday to catch, Forever Together's charge may come too late. Longshot -- The admirably consistent RUTHERIENNE (Pulpit) has won or placed in 20 of her 22 lifetime starts for the ever-dangerous Christophe Clement. She had excuses the only times she failed to crack the top three, both in 2007 -- a wide-trip fourth in the Appalachian S. at Keeneland and a rough-trip 10th in the Garden City, which she exited with cuts. Although the dark bay has never defeated Forever Together, she has chased her valiantly. Rutherienne was arguably unfortunate in this year's Diana, when she lacked room in the stretch, had to steady, and was only beaten three-quarters of a length. Considering how impressively Rutherienne won the Nassau S. (Can-G2) at Woodbine in May, I wonder what would have happened if she'd contested the Canadian. Might she have beaten the battling trio of Princess Haya (Street Cry [Ire]), Forever Together and Much Obliged (Kingmambo)? If so, Rutherienne would be attracting a lot more attention right now. Of course, the 1 1/4-mile distance is a complete unknown for Rutherienne, but others have captured the Filly & Mare Turf in their first crack at the trip -- Banks Hill, Intercontinental and Forever Together herself. For whatever it's worth, Rutherienne scored the most visually impressive victory of her career in Southern California, trouncing the field in the 2007 Del Mar Oaks (G1). This is a different league, but you couldn't ask for a harder-trying mare.
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