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BREEDERS' CUP PREVIEWS
Saturday's $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) figures to be an exciting race, but we'll be boringly conventional in our selections for the 1 1/4-mile centerpiece of the two-day fixture at Santa Anita. RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) gave wonder horse Sea the Stars a slight scare in the July 4 Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) at Sandown at about 10 furlongs, and subsequently flattered that form with big wins in the Sussex S. (Eng-G1) and Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1). Arguably Europe's second best horse up to 1 1/4 miles this year, the Coolmore representative should give a fine account of himself here and is the one to beat from a class perspective. He'll be a short price, he has foot problems and he's an unknown on Pro-Ride, so there are plenty of legitimate reasons to side elsewhere. However, we really can't wrap ourselves around any other horse in the field as our next four selections look interchangeable on paper. EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) won the course-and-distance Santa Anita H. (G1) in March, and that's about all the evidence we need to convince us he's the best American hope. He couldn't be coming into the race any better and, aside from a couple downers over the Arlington Park turf, has been in the mix every time for the past year and a half. He has the tactical foot to be in striking distance throughout and should be in the frame once more. The undefeated ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) makes her long-awaited debut against males here. We can envision her winning this, but can also see her falling just a bit short at a small price. Speed rating gurus don't really like her last two efforts, but she's capable of running much faster and on her best day she's equal to the American-based males she'll be facing here. While we don't entirely wish a first defeat as her Hall of Fame worthy career draws to a close, it would be sort of poetic justice as her connections unconscionably avoided a chance to add to her legacy against males earlier this year in such winnable races as the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) and Pacific Classic (G1). This field is much tougher than what she would have faced in those, which might prove to be her undoing. We'll see. COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) ran OK in last year's Classic despite being poorly prepared for the race. He had not started in the two months prior to the event, but this time Eoin Harty appears to have learned from his mistake. Colonel John bounced a little bit following his Wickerr S. score when fifth in the Pacific Classic (G1), but came right back to just miss in the Goodwood S. (G1). The form of that race has been questioned given the relative quality of the winner, Gitano Hernando (GB) (Hernando [Fr]), but on paper it won't take an effort much better than that to win if Rip Van Winkle has an off day. RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid) has become a new horse since arriving in the stable of Bob Baffert and switching to synthetics. His Pacific Classic and Goodwood performances were solid, and a similar run should be enough to get a piece of the purse. Again, there isn't much separating several of these. TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory) could be rated higher off his outstanding win in the Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket. He's eligible to adapt to Pro-Ride as well as any European-based runner, but the bottom line is that he's not quite as good as Rip Van Winkle, all things being equal. Rip's infirmities might allow this one to pull a surprise though we suspect that won't happen. We're downgrading the best dirt runners in the field, SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) and QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality). We wish them well as they both deserve to run big races, but considering what happened to Curlin last year we're not convinced either will be at home on Pro-Ride. If they can stay healthy through 2010, they should be huge factors when this is renewed at Churchill Downs. GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat) was the best American grass runner this year, and not being entirely suited to 1 1/2 miles, has wound up in the Classic. He's won over this surface before, but his Sir Beaufort S. (G3) win does not compare all that favorably with what others have done on the same surface, and his flop versus a relatively weaker field in the Strub S. (G2) gives us plenty cause for pause. AWESOME GEM (Awesome Again) won a weak renewal of the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) last time, and while he has won or placed in eight of 12 starts on synthetics, his very best efforts on those surfaces were some time ago. MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) certainly could have needed his last race in the Goodwood, his first start in more than two months, but the Kentucky Derby (G1) winning gelding still does not appear to be of this class even with a few lengths progression. Jockey Calvin Borel insists he's a better horse on dirt, and he might be completely on the money with that observation. The Godolphin duo of REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) and GIROLAMO (A.P. Indy) might have been better suited preparing for a race like the Cigar Mile (G1) on November 28, and either or both could still make that Aqueduct race. Regal Ransom, who flopped in the Norfolk (G1) last year in his only prior start on synthetic, got away with murder setting a slow pace in the Super Derby (G2) while Girolamo is untested beyond a mile and has been peaking on dirt.
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