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BELMONT REPORT JUNE 7, 2013 by James Scully A fast-approaching storm promises to drench Belmont Park, leaving a wet track for Saturday's 145th running of the Belmont Stakes, and the pace scenario is another major element to handicapping the race. The 1 1/2-mile event tends to play favorably toward horses with tactical speed -- confirmed closers are at a disadvantage because the leaders go slower than normal at the extended distance -- but this year looks like an exception. It was a fast and contested pace 17 years ago, the last time 14 horses headed postward in the Belmont Stakes, with opening fractions of :46 4/5 and 1:10 4/5. Those proved to be optimal conditions for Editor's Note and My Flag, who were 12th and 13th after the first half-mile before rallying to finish first and third, respectively. The dueling front-runners, including '96 Preakness winner Louis Quatorze, got burnt up on the front end. By comparison, the 2012 Belmont featured early splits of :49 1/5 and 1:14 3/5, which is more along the lines of how the race often develops. Whether they're dueling on the lead or it's a runaway pacesetter like Palace Malice going too fast to last, this year's Belmont is going to set up for late runners, playing more like the Kentucky Derby than the Preakness. The top three finishers at Churchill Downs were all 15th or worse after a vicious opening half-mile in 45 2/5 seconds, but Oxbow surprised everyone at Pimlico when he got clear early and slowed the pace down. Saturday's pace players include Frac Daddy, who drew one spot inside of speedball Freedom Child and appears committed to racing on the front end. Freedom Child has only one chance -- on the lead -- and it should be interesting to see how fast he sprints from the gate. Oxbow can't be taken a hold of (see the Arkansas Derby) and will be up close from the start as well. And there's the possibility of a wildcard, with Palace Malice, Giant Finish, Vyjack and Midnight Taboo all lurking as candidates to make an early bid. I'm taking a stand against the speed horses, building my wagers around four horses. Selections Orb is the top pick. He never looked comfortable after breaking from the rail post in the Preakness and spit the bit early, but the Belmont takes place over his home track and he possesses one of the better pedigrees for the distance. And we know he loves the mud, registering a career-best 111 BRIS Speed rating for his convincing Kentucky Derby win. The Preakness halted talk of his overwhelming superiority, but Orb reeled off five consecutive wins prior to the setback, improving greatly along the way (89 Speed rating for a win in January) while overcoming all kinds of circumstances. He's trained forwardly since the Preakness, according to all reports, and the Belmont should set up perfectly for the division leader. Golden Soul would not offer much appeal on a fast track, but the mud-loving lark can't be overlooked following his runner-up effort in the Derby. The Dallas Stewart trainee needed a little time to recover from that massive effort, but all systems appear ready to go following a sharp five-furlong breeze last week. He's bred for the trip on both sides of his pedigree and post 14 is no concern for the one-run closer -- the chestnut should be rolling by the far turn. Consider for an upset. Revolutionary also appears capable of capitalizing upon a hot pace. The inside draw did him no favors in the Derby, but he came on belatedly for third and rates as an excellent candidate to take a step forward from post 9 in the Belmont. Javier Castellano, who bolted in favor of Normandy Invasion following Revolutionary's win in the Louisiana Derby, gets back aboard the talented late runner. Unlimited Budget is bred to relish wet conditions and figures to get first jump on the late runners – she's an upset threat in her first start against males. A three-time stakes winner, the filly lacked the needed late punch after racing close throughout in the Kentucky Oaks, sustaining her first career loss when third, but she'll settle into a more favorable position in midpack Saturday. The filly overcame a near 10-length deficit with a brilliant middle move in the Rachel Alexandra earlier this year and should receive a similar set-up on Saturday. Betting Utilizing a $100 bankroll, I will recommend the following wagers on the Belmont Stakes: $35 win Orb Enjoy the Belmont Stakes!
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