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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING SEPTEMBER 9, 2006 Woodbine Polytrack by Tim Holland When Demi Song (Demidoff) passed the post more than 10 lengths ahead of his rivals in the 1ST race at Woodbine on August 30, history was made. Indeed, this was the first race in Canada contested over Polytrack, the "all-weather" surface that Turfway Park in Kentucky has been using for a year and which Keeneland will unveil this fall. Before the first race, during a ribbon-cutting ceremony, the Chairman and C.E.O of Woodbine Entertainment Group, David Willmot, said "Polytrack is a partially synthetic all-weather track, which is revolutionary in the world of horse racing. We believe it's the most important thing that's being done for the safety and welfare of the horse and the rider. The incidence of injuries and breakdowns is dramatically less. It's very consistent. It's very safe and we're proud that Woodbine is the second track in North America to have installed it." These sentiments had been echoed by the management of Turfway prior to their winter meet at the end of 2005 -- a meet which saw a huge decline in catastrophic breakdowns. Through Thursday evening, 42 races had been run over the new Woodbine surface with 10 favorites, at a slightly low rate of nearly 24 percent, winning. While it is probably too early to draw any concrete conclusions from this small sample of races, handicappers would do well to pay close attention to these races and take advantage of any emerging patterns. During Turfway's first Polytrack meet, horseplayers were quick to notice that the track's traditional speed bias had been greatly reduced. While Woodbine's dirt track did not compare to the old Turfway surface in terms of speed biases, the first 42 races run over Woodbine's new surface will probably lead horseplayers to draw the same conclusion. Although two of the three races at five or 5 1/2 furlongs were won by horses on or near the lead, just six of 26 races run at six and 6 1/2 furlongs were won by front-running horses. In eight of these races, horses closing from far back were victorious, but stalkers have without a doubt held an advantage here so far. While runners from just off the pace may indeed own the best style, horseplayers should use caution and not disregard basic handicapping rules. Indeed, similar to turf racing, speed can be just as dangerous on the Polytrack and we must remember that jockeys, believing that the track does not favor speed, will sometimes take back and allow only one horse an easy lead. This was exemplified in the last two races on Thursday evening, both run over 1 1/16 miles. Izkra (Iskandar Elakbar), ridden by Patrick Husbands, was allowed to set a "reserved pace" in the 7TH race before drawing off to win by 7 1/4 lengths. In the next race, Great Win (Great Gladiator), under Michelle Rainford, got away with a first quarter in a moderate 25 seconds before winning at odds of more than 30-1. Great Win is not the only speed horse to have paid handsomely at this meet as three others have wired their fields at 20-1 or higher, which serves as a reminder for value-seeking handicappers to remain flexible. The victory of Demi Song in the opening race was somewhat representative of the type of horse that has found success on the Polytrack at Turfway. While many had expected runners bred primarily for the grass to hold an advantage over the new surface, that was not the case. It turned out that horses who carried a certain amount of turf type acceleration in their pedigree combined with some dirt speed were the most successful. Sires that excelled were adaptable, such as Chester House (Mr. Prospector), Tale of the Cat (Storm Cat) and Grand Slam (Gone West). Meanwhile, Demidoff, the sire of Demi Song, is not known as a turf sire (rated only a "D" in the Sire Stat book), but he is by Mr. Prospector and is a full-brother to the good turf and dirt sire Gone West. Archers Bay (Silver Deputy), Bold Executive (Bold Ruckus), Bold n' Flashy (Bold Ruckus), Compadre (El Gran Senor), Doneraile Court (Seattle Slew), Greenwood Lake (Meadowlake) and Whiskey Wisdom (Wild Again) are all stallions that have sired more than one winner during the first few days of the Woodbine Polytrack meet . None of these are considered turf sires, but several of them do have grass influence in their immediate pedigrees, such as Whiskey Wisdom, who is out of a Lord at War (Arg) mare; Greenwood Lake, whose damsire is by Nijinsky II; and Compadre who is by El Gran Senor. Proving the point that it's not necessarily true turf-type horses that may find success on the Polytrack, 21 of the first 42 winners had made at least one start on the turf previously, and, of these, only two had actually managed to win. Furthermore, these 21 had made a total of 65 starts on the turf, resulting in just three wins. It should, however, be noted that Dancer's Flyer (Lost Soldier) accounted for 18 previous turf losses herself before breaking her maiden in her 31st lifetime start and Polytrack debut. Other sires that have already had winners over the Woodbine Polytrack, and handicappers should keep an eye out for, include Catienus (Storm Cat), who enjoyed immense success at Turfway, and the adaptable producers Mutakddim (Seeking the Gold), More Than Ready (Southern Halo) and Tale of the Cat. While it was generally agreed that there was little speed bias at Turfway, it must be noted that certain parts of the track were more favorable than others. For example, during the majority of the winter meet, the inside rail on the backstretch seemed to be tiring. However, the inside rail down the stretch was advantageous, as was evidenced by many horses that appeared to be beaten turning for home found extra life while racing on this strip. Additionally, the paths off the inside were tiring in the stretch, but horses were finishing well when kept on the far outside. While some of these biases may be short term and eventually disappear, studious handicappers can still use this knowledge to their advantage. A week of racing is still too early to discern any bias at Woodbine, but the jockeys will be first to know and take advantage of any. Julien Leparoux and Jesus Castanon were jockeys to follow at Turfway who quickly read the new surface well, and there will likewise be certain jockeys that will excel this fall at Woodbine. Leading rider Husbands (by earnings in 2006) has already secured six wins and clearly has a handle on the new surface while showing flexibility with three of his winners coming from off the pace, two stalking and one going wire-to-wire. Meanwhile Justin Stein has four wins and Rainford three. Furthermore, some jockeys are unfamiliar with the more tiring effect of the new surface on their mounts. Several horses have launched premature runs that would have sufficed over the dirt track, only to be caught late on Polytrack. With better timing, these horses (some are listed below) can improve in their next appearance. Horses to Watch London Snow (Trajectory)
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