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HANDICAPPING FEATURES FEBRUARY 14, 2007 Introducing Race Shapes in Brisnet PPs by Rich Nilsen A powerful handicapping angle involves a runner exiting either an exceptionally fast or slow paced race, which positively or negatively affected the chances of this particular horse. The result can be a running line that is "disguised" due to the pace scenario that occurred in that race. Brisnet recently added BRIS Race Shapes to their past performances, and it's a helpful tool for identifying these runners in a quick and efficient manner. Race Shapes explanation The BRIS Race Shapes measure how fast the leader ran relative to the average leader time for the race's final time/speed rating. The faster the leader's pace, the higher the BRIS Race Shape (e.g. +7). The slower the leader's pace, the lower the BRIS Race Shape (e.g. -7). The BRIS Race Shapes correspond to the first and second calls of a race. The first BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the first call (2f call for most sprints; and 4f call for most routes). The second BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the second call (4f call for most sprints; and 6f call for most routes). This enables the user to quickly identify which segments of the race were fastest and slowest (relative to each call's average pace for the final time). Like the BRIS Pace Ratings, the BRIS Race Shapes use a fixed scale of two points-per-length. For example, a "+6" Race Shape represents a pace which is three lengths faster than normal. Using Race Shapes as a handicapping tool There are a variety of ways to benefit from using the BRIS Race Shapes. A primary use of the BRIS Race Shapes is to quickly identify horses which were advantaged/disadvantaged by unusually fast or slow paced races. Generally speaking, horses with a late running style want a fast pace up front to be most effective. And, conversely, horses with an early running style want a softer pace to be most effective. Whenever a pace is unusually fast or slow, evaluate whether the horse was advantaged or disadvantaged by the pace. Anticipate possible improvement from horses that were disadvantaged by the pace of their recent races, and view skeptically the performances of horses that were advantaged by the pace of their recent races. In the recent Sham S. (G3) at Santa Anita, the Triple Crown hopeful RAVEL (Fusaichi Pegasus) stood out based on the Race Shapes of his two lifetime starts. In his debut at Keeneland, Ravel broke from the disadvantageous rail (one hole) going seven furlongs, always a difficult distance for a first time starter, and had a very slow pace up front. The slow pace is indicated by the -12 and -15 in the first and second call Race Shape figures, respectively. The -12 tells us that the first call was run by the leader 12 points slower than par. Since two points equal one length on the BRIS Pace rating scale, this represents six lengths. The second call, a -15 Race Shape, was 7 1/2 lengths slower than par. Despite it being his first start, breaking from a tough post at a difficult distance, and getting a slow pace up front, Ravel finished well and ran a winning race in a runner-up effort. Next time out, Ravel had enough going against him when shipping across the country to Hollywood Park and making his first start around two turns over the Cushion Track. And he wouldn't get any help pace-wise either. Despite moderate early fractions that favored front runners (-5 and -9 Race Shapes), Ravel closed from off the pace to take the lead by the top of the stretch and drew off to a decisive 3 1/2-length score. Impressive! Off those two performances, in which he earned huge Late Pace ratings, Ravel was a confident play in the Sham. The well bred son of Fusaichi Pegasus didn't light up any toteboards on this afternoon, but he was an authoritative winner and is now a major player on the Triple Crown trail. Where to find Race Shapes BRIS Race Shapes are included in the BRIS Premium and Ultimate PPs (condensed versions excluded). The Race Shapes are found on each past performance line next to the Pace Rating section. Experiment with this new addition to the Brisnet Past Performances. The Race Shapes offer a unique and effective handicapping tool that the majority of the wagering public is not taking advantage of.
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