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HANDICAPPING FEATURES MARCH 14, 2007 Hidden dangers in common trainer stats by Steve Zacks Last time, I discussed points of entry using trainer statistics. Here are three examples to make the point, this can happen if you use statistics in an unknowing or uncaring way and without understanding exactly the full implications of them. Hidden dangers may lurk beneath the surface, so caveat emptor: let the buyer beware. What you see may NOT be what you get! In one form or another, many of us have fallen prey to similar misuse of information. The specifics do not matter; similar examples permeate racing publications regularly. Regardless of the work involved, if you are using your own home-made information you know exactly what data is in there and exactly what it means. Example One A four-year-old gelding makes his initial career start going nine furlongs on the turf in a maiden special weight for three-year-olds and up at an "A" track. Trainer stats:
Additional Information: Horse has a series of moderate works from four to six furlongs dating back some 90 days, and spaced every six-to-10 days with no extended gaps. The BRIS pedigree information in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances suggests that the horse is bred to run long, and could perform well on the turf. Comments: This horse is in the care of a solid trainer, who wins 20 percent or more of his starts, but has a public following and is usually well bet. We also know that in the right circumstances the trainer is capable of preparing the horse to do what is being asked of him today. Because he is a first-time starter, we really have no true indicator of what the horse can do. Workouts may give some indication of his inherent ability, but until tested under fire, no one knows for sure how the horse will perform, and of course there are all of the vagaries of what can happen in the race itself. The horse has the pedigree and preparation to do what is asked of him. The devil may be in the details Experience teaches that one should be careful about what he reads and how he uses the same. Quality information is usually more difficult to get. This type of "good" information may be gleaned by clipping the past performances of winners, recording information about certain winners or trainers in a notebook or a database; even if only the multiple characteristics of winners are collected, one becomes aware of nuances, which go beyond the raw data of the simple statistics. It may be hard work, but it does pay dividends in two respects: it will keep you off misleading-looking low-priced losers who are not as promising as the first glance suggests, and it may turn you on to some hidden trainer techniques or go signals which have higher wager value, even if they occur infrequently. Part of what we know comes from a collection of data race by race over a period of time. Here is some additional information that is not evident on the surface, but is of the utmost importance: The trainer has never won with a first-time starter going long on the turf. Of the 20 first-time starters who won, 14 of them were two-year-olds, 18 of them won sprints. 17 of the 20 first-time route winners had at least two previous races, usually sprints, and three had only one prior start. All of the first-time turf winners had three or more starts, and at least half of them had raced at today’s distance or longer. Will this horse win today? He might. One thing is for sure, the trainer's published statistics will lead to the horse being over bet considering his true chances of winning. The likelihood, however, is that unless this is an exceptional runner, the trainer is prepping this horse for a later start – something not necessarily in evidence from the statistics – if read without a critical eye. Example Two Three-year-old male debuts in maiden special weight at six furlongs on the dirt, early in the year at an "A" track. Trainer stats:
Additional Form Information: This horse shows a series of better than average works, fairly regularly spaced with no gaps. Pedigree information shows that the sire is a top debut sire (above 18 percent) and the stakes-winning dam has produced several debut winners. Comments: The trainer debut win percent, in conjunction with a strong work pattern, which includes several above average works, suggest that this horse – from a top stable and with a top rider up - is likely to go off at a short price. While the information base tracked only winners, and not those starters that lost, there was a hidden key element missing from the past performance profile. The ROI (Return on Investment) was modestly negative on this trainer in this debut category, but there was one element that if added to the mix, would turn it strongly into the black. Without its presence, one might be deterred from betting on this horse at low odds. Eight of the 10 maiden special weight winners at six furlongs or longer, and one of the two maiden claiming winners, had shown a six-furlong gate work in the 21 days before the winning debut. This colt has never worked six furlongs. He still could win. But if you had the additional information about the six furlong gate work would you be betting on this horse at 2-1 or less? At 15-1 maybe you would take a chance. Example Three Proven five-year-gelding makes his first start for a new trainer after shipping to a new circuit, going a two-turn mile in a high-dollar claimer. Trainer stats:
Additional Form Information: Horse has won several races at today's track, at today's distance and off similar layoffs. He has also won following a claim and track switch in the past. This information was available from either the current past performances or those found on old forms saved in hard copy, or on a hard drive, or from past clippings of other wins. Comments: The trainer stats here provide somewhat conflicting information. The trainer is obviously competent as several of the win percents show. The question is how to handle the somewhat conflicting negative statistic for the long layoff, which is below his normal performance level – either a weakness or perhaps trainer intent. Very often the listed statistics will conflict; very often there is additional information which will provide important clues, but is not there to look at. It is clear that the trainer can get a horse ready to run off a long layoff if he so chooses and if the horse will do so as the half-dozen or so past winners demonstrate. Knowing how the trainer generally prepares his horses will frequently provide some clues. Many trainers use certain work distances or patterns to prepare post-vacation runners for an immediate top effort. Maybe the key relates to the choice of rider (this might show up in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances), the class maneuver or quite possibly the horse himself. This horse has already indicated an ability to win off a long layoff in the past. If the work tab and class placement suggest that the trainer is interested today, then he is a lot more interesting than if there is one three-furlong breeze in :39, 17 days ago. Tentative Conclusions Just as with most elements of horse race betting, little is simple and straightforward. Keeping additional trainer data, might give one special insights into simple statistics. Some things work better together than they do alone. The basic premise was that: if a "good" trainer did something more than once, and with more than one horse, that was in his bag of tricks and he was eligible to use it at anytime in the future. Good trainers know that each runner is different, but also that they tend to fall into general types: slow down naturally quick horses in the morning, ask slower horses to work faster; some gallop fast and get their wind in shape and need little work; others have unsound underpinnings and may be unable to stand up to strenuous morning exercise, and so on. If he had past success with blinkers or a tongue tie, or a figure eight, or a certain jockey because he does something different during the race or has soft hands, then he tends to go back to them when he thinks the scenario might fit. Never underestimate the potential of a pattern match between horse and trainer. If a horse moves to a new trainer who has success with layoff returnees, in addition to moving from a trainer who did not either try or have the ability to do so and the horse has run well fresh in the past -- look out! One thought on using information about winners only, which means one does not know the percentages: While it certainly is more useful to know how often each maneuver is tried, how often it succeeded, as well as the odds and dollar return, simpler forms of information can provide subsets that keep a player off low-odds losers, justify low-odds plays on others, and produce very generous payouts on still others. The ideal situation would be interactive trainer stats, which would allow the handicapper to track multiple qualifying factors at the same time -- first-time starter, first time on turf, first time going long -- and understanding all the specifics of each particular situation. Until that format becomes available, any extra tidbits of information can and do go a long way to keeping you in the black.
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