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HANDICAPPING FEATURE To Stay Ahead...Keep Up to Date! by Steve Zacks Changing scenarios at the two major summer meetings have again proven that staying on top of current trends can make you successful. Much of the changing landscape has to do with the installation of the Polytrack racing surface at Del Mar. At Saratoga, certain outfits have yet to perform up to their recent lofty standards. The willingness to track events on a day-to-day basis can keep you on top of these changes and a step or two ahead of the published statistics. Being willing to adapt your play quickly to take advantage of emerging trends can produce great rewards. At Saratoga and Del Mar, the leading trainers and riders are not necessarily those one might have anticipated when doing prep work in July. Players who have been able to adjust quickly have been able to jump on and off the various bandwagons, avoiding numerous low-priced losers and taking advantage of the resulting generous overlays on other horses. Realizing early on that Billy Mott was loaded for bear and pointing to this meet and that Kent Desormeaux was intent on returning to his former glory days soon became evident. Cornelio Velasquez was back in top form and riding many winners, perhaps due to a return to a more patient style. Pricy winners have frequently been tied to these names throughout the meeting. When it became evident that many of Todd Pletcher's and Steve Asmussen's horses were underperforming, looking for other possibilities in those races where their runners were heavily bet produced some generous payoffs. Maybe there are hidden reasons or agendas that will become clear down the road. Maybe the stock is tired following strong prior meetings or didn't mature as expected, or maybe the barn has encountered a virus or more than the usual growing pains of young horses. Breeding, raising, buying and racing horses is fraught with risk. Sometimes nothing goes right. The new and different racing surface at Del Mar might require a change in training methods and approach. If, as Bob Baffert has suggested (taken second hand from printed reports) that the new surfaces will mean that he will have to start buying a different kind of race horse, then it will take time. If Ron Ellis had an exceptional meeting at Hollywood, maybe his stock was tired out and his top Hollywood performers should be bet with caution. And of course the old horse for course comes into play: some horses love one surface while others cannot stand up on it. Both of the young riders, Joey Talamo and Michael Baze, have picked up where they left off at Hollywood; their patient riding styles, not always associated with young and developing riders, seems to suit the Polytrack. The usual duo of O'Neill and Mullins is atop the trainer standings. As a horseplayer, you are the lucky one, for the only time you need to own a race horse is when you decide to back him with a deuce or more in an upcoming race. And during any transition period when you think you have spotted a new trend, you can always back two or three horses in the win pool as long as the profit potential is high enough should you be right. Deciding upon a specific approach to use will keep you from second-guessing yourself time and again; if the bottom line stays black continue with the current plan. If the idea is right and the plan is wrong then change the plan. If the underlying assumption is wrong or the situation changes...you go with the flow! Starting Gate Woes Starting gate changes at Saratoga are welcomed by horseman and horseplayer alike; especially if it leads to a resolution of a problem. The fact that NYRA is aware of and attempting to rectify the problem is a positive itself. NYRA has lost thousands in handle thanks to the proper actions of the stewards who have treated the betting public fairly with several refunds this meet. Here's hoping that the changes produce better starts. Perhaps all the blame should not lie in the hands of the starter. Judging by the behavior and demeanor of so many around the starting gates at many venues, the frequency with which horses are loaded without their riders, or with the front gates open are indicative of other issues. Be it the quality of the breed, the early schooling or even the qualifying process for a gate card, it would be worthwhile to examine the situation in greater depth. Problems at the starting gate are common everywhere. The refunds were fair, but when one of the speed horses gets left, the entire complexion of the pace scenario and the race can change. It is already too late for today (unless you backed the benefiting horse). You can only take advantage of some of these situations the next time some of the horses run back. And in the case of the Adirondack S. (G3) on August 15, it may not take too long either! MORE HAPPY (Vindication), the eventual winner and betting favorite, was the prime beneficiary of the gate events as she was able to clear off on her own. Judging by the way she looked to be shortening stride in the stretch when under pressure, she looked as if she might have been in trouble had she had to deal with any pace pressure during the early part of the race. A to the Croft (Menifee), the best of the late runners, was closing strongly from far back to grab the place and did gallop out well. The racing public will be well aware of what happened to Phantom Income (Montbrook) and she might take more money than otherwise expected next time. If, however, the easy trip of More Happy happens to pass under the radar, and if the pace of her next race figures to be contested, she might be ripe to play against. The closers in the Adirondack might all benefit from a fairer pace scenario next time. Time will tell, maybe as soon as the Spinaway S. (G1) in a couple of weeks. Watching Racing: A Horseplayer's Needs Here is a short list of what a horseplayer wants and needs from race tracks to properly assess the horses pre and post race! 1 -- A clear and uncluttered view of the horses and all of their legs walking in the paddock and on post parade. If it is necessary to place a camera in the infield so that the horse is not blocked by the pony, then do so. Place whatever graphics are deemed necessary in a position so that they do not interfere with a view of the legs, of the horse walking and as the horses' feet hit the ground. A close-up view of the head so that one could ascertain figure-8s, types of blinkers and bits, and tongue ties would also be helpful. These should be provided well in advance of post time so that those who use pre-race appearance in their methods have adequate time to adjust their plays and place their bets, based on what they see. Showing the post parade as the horses are being loaded is of little or no use to these players. 2-- A proper presentation of the gallop out following the race which allows a view of all the horses pulling up -- both short and into the back stretch is crucial. If the track has a dual screen set up, use it for this purpose as well if necessary. The ability to see the horses unsaddling would also be of great benefit to the visual horseplayer. 3 -- What is not necessary is to waste money on mostly useless, uninformed commentary that says nothing. Keep meaningless prattle to a minimum. Honest and informed opinions are welcome. Executives and producers of these should only know how often the "MUTE" button is hit. 4-- Every race track should maintain the right to its own signal and make it available to any person who wants to bet on their races. You alienate fans and players and lower your handle when you deprive the player the right to view your races live on the internet.
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