|
|
HANDICAPPING FEATURE SEPTEMBER 12, 2007 The Summer of ’07: Is the Past a Prologue? by Steve Zacks With Saratoga and Del Mar now history, we take a look back with a view to the future. Compliments are paid; questions are asked. A horseplayer's evaluation of the new Del Mar Polytrack will take weeks. If horses who worked well but didn't run well in the afternoon perform well at other venues, players who liken the move from the Del Mar Poly-to-dirt or Del Mar Poly-to-Cushion Track as a turf-to-dirt move might find great opportunities. Several Del Mar-trained have run already run lights-out performances at Saratoga, and some horses who excelled at Hollywood Park didn't carry their form forward at Del Mar. We had some success at Del Mar favoring sustained type runners -- those with final BRIS Speed and Late Pace numbers higher than their Early Pace ratings. This may not be so much a positional play as an energy play. A patient ride, either in front or from behind, seemed to be the winning way. Pay attention to a horse with good form prior to Del Mar; be prepared to toss out the less-than-stellar performances there until trends clarify. Playing more than one horse in uncertain situations often leads to rewards, and regular trips to the cashier's window will keep you in a positive mindset. For those who focus on trainers, always be wary of trainers coming off particularly strong or weak meetings, especially if you had anticipated better (or worse); form reversals are common under these circumstances. Saratoga had one of its best meetings in recent years. The weather was great. The absence of major summer storm bursts led to plenty of turf racing with full fields. One real positive was the adjustments made at the starting gate; the fact that, other than an unfortunate event on closing day, the improvement was noticeable is significant. At the very least, horseplayers were given a fair shake and when racing does anything positive for the horseplayers, it deserves to be patted on the back. Small field sizes in major stakes continues to trouble racing. It is not very often that a deep closer has a chance to win a four-horse race, but it happened in the Hopeful S. (G1) when MAJESTIC WARRIOR (A.P. Indy) was able to roll on by the better-backed speedsters in the stretch. In a four-horse field, 6-1 is a great price and leading trainer Bill Mott was not likely to be running a two-year-old maiden winner in a Grade 1 event unless he was very serious! Clever handicappers got a great overlay there. In the Spinaway S. (G1), MORE HAPPY (Vindication), the beneficiary of a gate mishap in her Adirondack (G2) victory, was unable to sustain her speed at the longer distance and did not finish on the board. To her credit, she was returning on rather short rest off a hard effort. The hot horse was second-time starter IRISH SMOKE (Smoke Glacken), and she was the first two-year-old this season to win a Grade 1 in his/her second career start. So much for the old days when stakes and racing experience was a necessity to win the big juvenile events of the summer. Those who stay on top of hot trainers and jockeys were rewarded with a resurgent Mott winning all kinds of races, including almost a dozen two-year-old events. Could he be a force in the sophomore classics of 2008? Give him a horse with talent and some time, and he will find a way to bring that talent to the fore! Gary Contessa lit up the tote board several times during the closing days. These included a winner absent for more than a year and a developing sophomore. Those who pay attention to the work tab, found adequate clues with the different styles of preparation for each. Linda Rice had ample opportunity to take advantage of her known strength, winning a slew of turf events in the closing days. It became apparent early in the meeting that Todd Pletcher's horses were not winning the stretch battles the way so often do. That provided one clue for the skeptics. After the slow start, those who chose to play against the usual meet leader were able to take advantage by playing against many short-priced horses. Many of these were merely players in contentious races. When the barn was hot they would beat you time and again; this year they proved to be beatable. Very often when a good stable has a slow meet, they are dynamite in the following one. Along with Pletcher, Steve Asmussen is another that bears watching early in the upcoming Belmont Fall Championship meet, and at Keeneland later on. Watch the early trend carefully and have a strategy in place to take advantage -- be they hot or be they not! Carl Nafzger had a brilliant plan and equally successful execution with his top sophomores STREET SENSE (Street Cry) and LADY JOANNE (Orientate). Students of form and preparation would do well to study this master of bringing a horse up to a big race. In our book, his performance was akin to Dick Mandella's four victories in the Breeders' Cup of 2003. What the future holds for a couple of the meet's top name horses will unfold over the next months. LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) was dominant in winning both the Whitney (G1) and Woodward (G1). He's always been a top performer, but a skeptic might ask if he is one of those Saratoga horse-for-course freaks. Will he run as well at Monmouth at 10 furlongs in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)? His performance in the Woodward was markedly inferior to that in the Whitney off a similar set up. Did the extra eight pounds make that much of a difference? Not that he would get paid any more for winning by more lengths than he did, but he did not gallop out nearly as well last time either. A contrarian position might prove rewarding in an upcoming race. The skeptics had much to say about the performances of Street Sense; he won both his prep race (Jim Dandy [G2]) and his main target (Travers [G1]), though not necessarily in the convincing fashion that many expected. Some race horses, with experience, become very professional and understand fully just what they have to do. Perhaps he is one of those. Race horses are athletes. Most athletes have problems. There is no doubt that Street Sense is an athlete. He may now have his physical limitations. Perhaps CURLIN (Smart Strike) did not win the Preakness (G1) so much as Street Sense lost it because these limitations came to the fore after making that long extended run to the front. It is also possible that Street Sense did not really care for the Saratoga surface (just as Lawyer Ron might have relished it), but was a good enough to win in spite of it. Perhaps the stress of racing has caught up with him somewhat and he is not quite the horse he was earlier. These days, so it seems, the modern race horse only has a few good efforts in it. And of course we do not yet know just how good a racehorse the later-developing GRASSHOPPER (Dixie Union) will turn out to be. If the new trend is for maiden winners to win the meeting's marquee two-year-old events, then why shouldn't an upstart three-year-old give the division leader a run for his money? He could be one to watch. On the subject of safety and racing, and the artificial versus the dirt surface debate, a quick review of the charts for Arlington Park, Del Mar, Saratoga and Monmouth Park over the same period suggests that there were as many or more DNFs (did not finish), pull-ups and vanned offs, on Poly as on dirt. The quality or thoroughness of the pre-race soundness/veterinary examinations may have something to do with what happens on the race track in the afternoons. The important factor needs to be a part of this discussion. To date, we have not seen this point publicly referenced. Having been hands-on with race horses for over two decades and having watched racing for more than four, we believe that in all but the rarest of cases, a properly trained horse will respond to sparing use of the whip. Once they have been taught what is expected of them, many need only to be shown the stick, or tapped lightly once or occasionally to keep their mind on the task at hand. We have lobbied in the past for tighter controls in use, misuse and abuse of the whip. We have watched Russell Baze ride in several thousand races over the years and rarely if ever do we recall him misusing or overusing the whip. Baze, and other top riders like him, win a lot of races because they are on good horses, understand what saving ground is about, are aware of pace and have a tactical understanding of a race. There is no doubt in our mind that Baze rates with the best of this group. To his credit, he is also a fierce competitor and does everything he can to win. He has also been seen not to persevere unnecessarily with other challenged or well-beaten runners. Those are some of the many ingredients which go into the making of the winningest rider in North American racing history. We watched the race in question when Baze's horse broke down in deep stretch. We saw the horse go bad and then seem to collect himself. In the shadow of the wire and wanting to win a race, Baze hit the horse a couple of times. The unfortunate outcome is a sad fact of horse racing. We are not sure that Baze deserved the suspension, but that is not our place. He has abided by the ruling as a true professional and gentleman. However, what is sad and what deserves comment is that he is penalized for a possible small lapse in judgment during the heat of competition while countless offenses of misuse, overuse and abuse of the whip go on across North America on a regular basis. Our hats go off daily to the riders who draw the sword only when necessary and hand ride their horses or who use the whip most judiciously -- Edgar Prado, Richard "the Mig" Migliore and Johnny Velazquez are a few of many. We applaud every time we see it. It is too bad that the common everyday abuses go unpunished and too many riders continue to do it repeatedly. More of the public needs to complain to the stewards and racetracks when they see a horse five or six lengths in front of the field being hit in the belly on every stride with the rider not evening looking back to see if there is any competition!
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
