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TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
The $200,000 John B. Connally Turf H. (G3) at Sam Houston is the last of 14 graded stakes to be run on Saturday. The headline attraction in the 1 1/8-mile turf event is STUDENT COUNCIL (Kingmambo), winner last year of the Pacific Classic (G1) and Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2). Though regally bred for the turf, Student Council has placed only once in four previous starts on the surface and has the look of a vulnerable favorite. GOING BALLISTIC (Lite the Fuse), whose biggest victory occurred last fall in the Super Derby (G2) on dirt, has the adequate class and prior success on turf to make an impact. A dual stakes winner on turf, Going Ballistic turned in two fine turf efforts at Arlington last summer when finishing a fast-closing second in the American Derby (G2) and third in the Secretariat S. (G1) after tracking a slow pace. Though Going Ballistic trailed throughout in his seasonal debut in the Sunshine Millions Classic, his only start over a synthetic surface, he rebounded in his last start to finish third in the Razorback H. (G3) behind lone speed Jonesboro (Sefapiano). While there isn't much speed in the Connally, Going Ballistic's class should carry him a long way. EMBOSSED (Ire) (Mark of Esteem [Ire]), a close second in the Connally last year, figures to progress off a seventh in the Dust Commander S. over the Turfway Polytrack in his seasonal debut. Odds-on winner of the Dallas Turf Cup H. (G3) at Lone Star last season, Embossed raced in tough spots late in his 2007 campaign, finishing last of five in the United Nations S. (G1) at Monmouth and sixth of eight in the Sword Dancer Invitational S. (G1) at Saratoga. The Connally field is not nearly as formidable, and Embossed fits with this kind on his best form. Note that he is cross-entered to a Keeneland allowance on Saturday. FIREROCK BASE (Indian Charlie) is two-for-two over turf having taken a pair of allowance/optional claimers at Fair Grounds recently. While the Connally represents a class hike, this field is not overly deep, and a horse like this in solid form might have a say in the outcome. WISE RIVER (Belong to Me) enters off a second-level allowance win over Fair Grounds' turf. Second to eventual Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Barbaro in the 2006 Tropical Park Derby (G3), he spent the better part of two years trying to get that second allowance victory. Student Council finished in or near midpack in both the San Antonio H. (G2) and the Santa Anita H. (G1) in his two starts this season, and certainly towers over most of his Connally rivals on class. Whether he can upgrade his turf form to take advantage of that fact is open to debate, and with the odds likely to be short, value will certainly lie elsewhere. EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH (Wild Event) also exits a pair of Fair Grounds allowance/optional claiming victories, albeit in races that were switched from turf to dirt. Eighteenthofmarch finished third in the American Derby last summer, 1 1/4 lengths behind Going Ballistic, but has run some inexplicably poor races on turf as well, several in races of far lower stature than the Connally. Ex-claimer SCRAPPY ROO (Roo Art) is undefeated in four starts since switching to trainer John Locke, but only narrowly beat his fellow Texas-breds in the Tomball S. last time and does not seem classy enough. Much the same can be said of MR. UNSTOPPABLE (Devil His Due), a recent allowance/optional claiming winner on dirt who has been unplaced in four previous starts on grass.
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