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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 11, 2008 by Dick Powell “Just when you think you have all the answers, I change the questions!” Why do we want prep races to sort out the Kentucky Derby (G1) picture when we would be better off as bettors with chaos? If all the prep races went according to plan with performances that could be accurately measured, wouldn't we all fall on the same horse? Confusing and contradictory results lead to a better betting race. Do you really want a Final Four with all the number one seeds playing like the one we just had? Why was it necessary to cancel racing at Aqueduct on Friday so that we could have a dull, tiring track to run the Wood Memorial Invitational (G1) over on Saturday? Despite being sealed tight as a drum, the track on Saturday was impossible to figure out with amazingly slow running times. What would the harm have been if the Wood would have been run over a sloppy or muddy track? It certainly would have been more predictable than what we had on Saturday. How much did the blustery wind at Aqueduct affect the running times on Saturday? If you thought the Wood was slow, check out the Bay Shore (G3) and Excelsior Handicap (G3). The Wood's final time of 1:52.53 was the slowest since the race was first run at nine furlongs. The Excelsior's final time of 1:51.13 was the slowest ever since it was shortened to nine furlongs in 1994 ,and the Bay Shore's 1:23.67 for seven furlongs was one of the slowest ever. Do I have to change my opinion of WAR PASS (Cherokee Run) after his gutty second-place finish in the Wood? After his debacle at Tampa Bay Downs, he resumed his front-running ways and almost went gate to wire. Considering how little he got out of the Tampa Bay race and how tiring Saturday's track was, it was a very strong performance. How fast was War Pass' first quarter? The clock said :22.46 but considering the headwind that he was running into it had to be a sub-22 second effort. Can a son of Tale of the Cat win the Kentucky Derby? Ordinarily I would say "no," but TALE OF EKATI (Tale of the Cat) has a stout female pedigree and a dosage index of only 2.00. His second dam is 10-furlong, Grade 1 stakes winner Maplejinsky (Nijinsky II) and he's out of a half-sister to filly Triple Crown winner Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom) that was sired by Sunday Silence, who might be the leading source of proven stamina in the world's gene pool. Wasn't DENNIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) supposed to run last weekend in the Illinois Derby (G2)? There was a horse running in the Warren silks in the 7TH race at Hawthorne, but there's no way that it was him. Was that a racetrack or a merry-go-round at Hawthorne? The horses that went to the front in the Illinois Derby stayed in the front and nobody was able to make up any ground in the long stretch. The previous two-turn races on Saturday's card were run similarly. How much did Dennis of Cork's traffic problems hurt him? Considering that he doesn't run near the lead anyway, it's hard to tell, but he did have problems going into the first turn when Julien Leparoux was bouncing around in the saddle and never ran comfortably afterward. What was disappointing was the lack of energy in the stretch, even if he was on the worst part of the track. Is COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) good enough to finish on the board in the Derby after running a relatively slow Santa Anita Derby (G1)? He only earned a BRIS Speed Rating of 98 and is the only major contender to have never broken 100, but his win last Saturday was very impressive visually. On a track that has consistently favored closers since being re-engineered, Colonel John did have the right running style, but it was how he came from behind that impressed me. He raced in between horses for most of the trip, allowed two horses to pass him on the outside around the far turn, dropped over to the rail to save some ground turning for home, and then swung out wide to run down Bob Black Jack (Stormy Jack) by a half-length. As far as facing 19 other horses going two turns, he's answered all the questions. How can we expect horses like Colonel John, who has been racing on synthetic tracks, to perform on the dirt track at Churchill Downs? Let me respond to the question with another question: did you watch the races from Oaklawn? In the Apple Blossom H. (G1), ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]), who had never raced or even trained on a dirt track, blew by last year's champion older female Ginger Punch (Awesome Again) to win by 4 1/2-widening lengths. Two races later, synthetic-track specialists TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) and Heatseeker (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) battled it out to the wire in the Oaklawn Park H. (G2), with Tiago gamely winning on the inside. It capped a spectacular stakes double for owners Anne and Jerry Moss, trainer John Shirreffs and rider Mike Smith. Have you heard Rick Dutrow talk about BIG BROWN's (Boundary) feet and do you believe him? I’m not saying that Big Brown's foot will act up again, but it's pretty disingenuous of Dutrow to vehemently maintain that his foot problems are over and a thing of the past. Foot problems tend to be chronic and while they can be controlled, it's hard to categorically state that they are over. The fact is that Big Brown has only raced three times and will have to train and race at Churchill, which tends to be a hard track. A couple of years ago we heard the same song from Bobby Frankel denying that Empire Maker's foot problems were going to be a problem, even after he had trouble negotiating the turn in his last major workout. So where does all this leave us? With three weeks to go, the only contender without some kind of cloud over his head is PYRO (Pulpit). Considering how well he trained with the mighty Curlin (Smart Strike) earlier this year, he comes into this Saturday's Blue Grass S. (G1) with fewer questions than anyone in this year's field. Training on Fair Grounds' main track and now on Keeneland's PolyTrack should have him fit and ready for the first Saturday in May. I'm still not on the bandwagon but if its a last-man-standing contest, it's to Pyro's advantage.
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