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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT APRIL 24, 2008 by James Scully Todd Pletcher equaled a Kentucky Derby (G1) record with five starters in 2007, but he was on the verge of being left out of this year's event only two weeks ago as none of his horses had enough graded earnings to make the race. Then, MONBA (Maria's Mon) and COWBOY CAL (Giant's Causeway) finished one-two in the April 12 Blue Grass S. (G1), and Pletcher capped his April resurgence with a victory by BEHINDATTHEBAR (Forest Wildcat) in Saturday's Lexington S. (G2). Behindatthebar isn't definite for the Kentucky Derby yet. His connections will make a decision soon, but the late-running colt deserves serious consideration in a year when at least 15 members of the field can't run a BRIS Speed rating better than 101. The improving colt earned a career-best 99 figure in the Lexington, and more impressively, he overcame the speed-bias with a strong late run. The Polytrack favored closers during its first three meets at Keeneland, but that all changed last week. On Saturday's program, the first seven races on Polytrack were won by horses on or close to the pace as late runners were essentially stuck in the carpet fibers. SAMBA ROOSTER (Songandaprayer), a 17-1 outsider with no experience at two turns, shot right out of the gate, establishing wicked early splits in :22 3/5 and :45 1/5 while sprinting on a clear lead in his first start for Bob Baffert. The maiden winner likely would've stopped to a walk over the old Polytrack. Instead, he was summoning flashbacks of Sinister Minister (a Baffert-trained runner who shocked observers with a wire-to-wire victory in the 2006 Blue Grass on dirt and never won again) as he turned for home in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington. After rating near the back of the pace for the opening three-quarters of a mile, Behindatthebar began to pass rivals on the far turn and continued his momentum into the short stretch, inhaling the leaders with a dramatic rally to win going away by a length. He was the only late runner to make any impact as the track carried Samba Rooster to a runner-up finish, and the forwardly placed RILEY TUCKER (Harlan's Holiday) easily held third. Padua Stables has a decision to make, but how can they avoid Derby fever? Behindatthebar doesn't look like a dirt horse at first glance, with his last three wins coming over synthetic tracks and his lone dirt attempt resulting in a disappointing fifth as the favorite in the El Camino Real Derby (G3). However, the El Camino Real Derby was the inexperienced colt's first start against winners and his two-turn debut. Behindatthebar is a different horse right now. He's gained valuable seasoning and, after breaking his maiden up on the pace, developed a formidable late kick. The Kentucky Derby will set up for a runner like him. Contenders With all the preps concluded, here's a look at the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the Kentucky Derby contenders. I'll offer a final preview next week. ADRIANO -- 101, 81, 97 (last three BRIS Speed ratings) Strengths: The Graham Motion-trained colt opened his three-year-old season with a smashing 6 3/4-length allowance score over the turf at Gulfstream. He didn't handle the paddock or the 12-post in the Fountain of Youth (G2) next out, but Adriano (A.P. Indy) rebounded with a terrific score in the Lane's End S. (G2), winning convincingly from just off the pace. He's worked well twice over the dirt at Churchill Downs, and the talented colt is bred to excel at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt. Derby winner Edgar Prado selected Adriano over Wood (G1) winner Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat) and Blue Grass (G1) winner Monba. Weaknesses: He's unproven on dirt. Motion suggested that the Kentucky Derby wasn't in their plans before the Lane's End, and even said "I think we all agree that he's probably more of a turf horse" afterward. Adriano also must handle a circus-like paddock scene at Churchill Downs. "In the Fountain of Youth, he kind of fell apart (before the race) that day," Motion said. Adriano will have to keep it together to run well on Derby Day. ANAK NAKAL -- 96, 89, 84 Strengths: Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) last November, the grinder likes the track and recorded a solid breeze at Churchill last week. He'll pick up a hot jockey in Rafael Bejarano, who just won his first Southern Californian riding title at Santa Anita and is a multiple champion at Churchill, and is conditioned by two-time Derby winner Nick Zito. Anak Nakal (Victory Gallop) turned in an improved effort in the Wood with the addition of blinkers, finishing fifth by 3 1/2 lengths, and could keep moving forward with the hood. Weaknesses: He was no factor in his first two efforts this year, posting an eighth in the Fountain of Youth and a seventh in the Rebel S. (G2), and the Wood couldn't have set up more perfectly for the late runner, but Anak Nakal was never a serious factor, clunking up for fifth. He may not be good enough to challenge. BEHINDATTHEBAR -- 99, 90, 89 Strengths: He's finished strongly in his last two outings, winning an allowance at Santa Anita and the Lexington at Keeneland in convincing fashion from off the pace, and the Pletcher-trained colt could be mowing them down in the final furlongs of the Derby. Behindatthebar is bred to handle 10 furlongs on his dam side, and he's one to consider for the bottom of the exotics at long odds. Weaknesses: The label "synthetic horse" fits him to a T. He's won three straight on synthetic tracks since breaking his maiden in early February, and turned in a dull effort when making his lone dirt start in the El Camino Real Derby. Behindatthebar was unraced at two. With five starts already this year and only a two-week break between the Lexington and Derby, his connections could decide to wait and point toward the Preakness (G1). BIG BROWN -- 110, 102, 91 Strengths: He rates as a standout based on his 110 BRIS Speed rating in the Florida Derby (G1). The Richard Dutrow-trained colt won that event for fun on the front end, with an extra furlong looking like no problem for him, and the defection of War Pass (Cherokee Run) opens the door for the possibility of a wire-two-wire romp on May 3. He might be too good for the opposition. Weaknesses: The chances of a son of Boundary winning the Kentucky Derby appeared obsolete before Big Brown arrived on the scene in early March. His sire was a six-furlong specialist who threw mostly sprinters, so Big Brown has inherited the "freak" label because he isn't bred to handle a classic distance of ground. Lightly raced with only three career starts, including a turf maiden win and an off-the-turf allowance, no horse has won the Derby with three or less starts in nearly a century. Big Brown raced greenly through the stretch of the Florida Derby and has seized command early in all of his starts. He may not face such optimum conditions in a 20-horse field. BIG TRUCK -- 83, 99, 96 Strengths: Out of a Go for Gin mare, Big Truck (Hook and Ladder) closed determinedly to capture the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) two starts back. His last effort on Polytrack can be thrown out, and the New York-bred winner is trained by Barclay Tagg, who won the last time he brought a New York-bred to the Derby. Big Truck will be running late. Weaknesses: His 11th-place finish in the Blue Grass came over Polytrack, but it highlighted class concerns that Big Truck had coming into the race. His best efforts at Tampa Bay Downs came at the expense of lesser company (War Pass doesn't count because he didn't show up at Tampa), and he could be in too deep in the Derby. BOB BLACK JACK -- 97, 93, 106 Strengths: An extremely honest colt who has performed commendably in all seven career starts, Bob Black Jack (Stormy Jack) just missed when stretching out to 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last out. The James Kasparoff trainee owns plenty of natural speed, which should allow him to settle into a perfect stalking trip behind the first flight of runners in the Derby, and he figures to be in position to pounce if the leaders falter. Hard-trying sophomores like him will sometimes grab a top-three placing in the Derby despite their pedigree. Weaknesses: He's not bred for 1 1/4 miles, and he's never raced on dirt. His 106 Speed rating came in a six-furlong sprint. COLONEL JOHN -- 98, 90, 96 Strengths: One of the top three contenders in the Derby field, Colonel John (Tiznow) is two-for-two this year, winning the Santa Anita Derby and Sham S. (G3) in preparation for his main engagement. California form has held up well across the country, with wins in the Arkansas Derby (G2), Rebel and Lexington, and the top performer in the Golden State is just hitting his best stride for Eoin Harty. Bred for dirt and distance, Colonel John shipped in early to get acquainted with Churchill and looks very formidable. Weaknesses: The WinStar homebred has never raced on dirt, and he's never earned a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating. Only one Derby winner in the last 18 runnings (Sea Hero) failed to meet the latter criteria. COOL COAL MAN -- 85, 100, 94 Strengths: Showed his class when winning the Fountain of Youth, and he's eligible to improve off a dull ninth in the Blue Grass over Polytrack. Trained by Zito, Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft) was an allowance winner last fall at Churchill, and he recorded a sharp four-furlong work over the track prior to his last effort. The bay colt will be an interesting longshot if he works well at Churchill in advance of the Derby. Weaknesses: Threw in a clunker when seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November, and Cool Coal Man benefited from a ground-saving trip from the rail in the Fountain of Youth. After surging to a clear lead in upper stretch that afternoon at Gulfstream, he appeared to get weary in the final yards, almost allowing the runner-up to come back and get him. That raised questions about how far he wants to go. COURT VISION -- 98, 93, 90 Strengths: Captured the one-mile Iroquois S. (G3) last November and drilled four furlongs at Churchill in a bullet :46 1/5 on April 17, sparking speculation that the Bill Mott runner was suddenly coming into form. If he can peak on Derby Day, Court Vision (Gulch) figures to make some noise during the stretch run. The dark bay colt showed class at two, overcoming trouble to win the Remsen S. (G2), but he left himself with too much to do when far off the pace in his first two starts this year. The one-run closer will be guided by Garrett Gomez, who figures to win a Kentucky Derby eventually, and Court Vision will likely get a hot pace to set up his run. Weaknesses: A non-threatening third in both the Wood and Fountain of Youth, Court Vision has yet to show that he's fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby. He earned only a 90 Speed rating in last year's Remsen, and he'll have to perform much better than he did in the Wood (which set up perfectly for him with a blistering early pace) to be any kind of factor. COWBOY CAL -- 96, 94, 94 Strengths: With a 3-2-0 mark in his last five starts, Cowboy Cal owns an admirable record. He just missed when setting the pace in the Blue Grass, finishing second by a neck to his stablemate, and the Pletcher runner figures to settle into a prime position, just off the leaders, during the early stages of the Kentucky Derby. He's got a terrific pedigree for 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, so we shouldn't be shocked to see Cowboy Cal make a smooth transition. The talented colt could be overlooked at huge odds. Weaknesses: A confirmed turf runner who took to the Polytrack at Keeneland, Cowboy Cal might not be a dirt horse. He didn't run well when making his debut sprinting on the main track at Saratoga, and, with the exception of Barbaro, horses who have been competing on the turf aren't good bets in the Derby. DENIS OF CORK -- 95, 99, 90 Strengths: Anybody who saw his maiden win at Churchill last November had to be impressed. Making his career debut for David Carroll, Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday) circled rivals eight-wide to win like a champion, and he opened his sophomore season with a pair of wins, including a superb 2 1/4-length tally in the Southwest S. (G3) in February. He unfortunately made only one more start over the next 2 1/2 months, with a fifth-place effort in the Illinois Derby (G2) threatening to derail his Derby bid due to limited graded earnings, but Denis of Cork is a candidate to rebound if he does get in the field. He worked this week over the oval, and he owns a ton of potential. Weaknesses: Very lightly raced with only four career starts, fitness is a legitimate question for Denis of Cork. Trainers can't replace racing experience with workouts, and the bay colt never offered a fight while one-paced throughout the Illinois Derby. He probably could've used a hard race over the last few months to set him up for the rigorous demands in a 20-horse Derby field, but he didn't get it due to his connections' decision to race him sparingly. EIGHT BELLES -- 103, 99, 98 Strengths: She'll bring a four-race winning streak into the Derby, and her 103 Speed rating in the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy (G2) compares very favorably to her male rivals. The gray filly owns a strong turn of foot, registering century-topping BRIS Late Pace numbers in her last four outings, and she's bred to handle 10 furlongs. After being a fairly non-descript runner last season, Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song) made huge strides for Larry Jones this year, and she owns room for further improvement. Weaknesses: Jockey Ramon Dominguez had to ask her for run to get past the unheralded Alina (Came Home) in the stretch of the Fantasy, which she won by only three parts of a length, and Dominguez will bail to ride Blue Grass winner Monba in the Kentucky Derby. Eight Belles, who will be the one to beat if her connections opt for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) the day before, will face a severe class test in the Derby, and the fact that she's never been past 8 1/2 furlongs isn't encouraging. The stalker also has problems breaking from the gate, which could severely compromise her chances in a 20-horse field. GAYEGO -- 101, 94, 99 Strengths: Promising colt ran a big race when making his dirt debut in the Arkansas Derby (G2), repulsing a bid by runner-up Z Fortune (Siphon [Brz]) in midstretch to win by three-quarters of a length, and his tactical speed is an asset in the Kentucky Derby. Gayego (Gilded Time) didn't show any distance limitations that afternoon, and the Paulo Lobo runner is as honest as they come, never finishing worse than second in five career starts. He's got the talent to be a serious factor if he gets the trip. Weaknesses: Gayego didn't beat the strongest competition in the Arkansas Derby, and he'll have to outrun his pedigree to handle 1 1/4 miles. MONBA -- 97, 55, 95 Strengths: His 12th-place finish in the Fountain of Youth is a throw out (suffered a leg wound when being squeezed early in the race), and Monba rebounded with a top-class performance in the Blue Grass, determinedly wearing down a game Cowboy Cal to post a narrow win. The classy colt is an allowance winner on dirt at Churchill, capturing his second career start last November, and that effort can't be discounted. The gray was very well-regarded entering 2008, and he's finally on the right track for Pletcher. He's a threat to keep moving forward on Derby Day. Weaknesses: With little racing experience over the past four months, Monba must avoid regressing off a hard-fought effort last time. The Blue Grass came over Polytrack, and despite his previous win at Churchill, we're not sure how that form will transfer to 10 furlongs on dirt. Monba's also never earned a triple-digit Speed rating. PYRO -- 84, 100, 96 Strengths: Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up made an extremely favorable impression in his seasonal debut, overcoming traffic issues to win the Risen Star S. (G3) convincingly, and dominated the Louisiana Derby (G2) from just off the pace in his next outing. Pyro (Pulpit) gave every indication that he had matured into a top three-year-old, and his Blue Grass effort can be overlooked due to Polytrack. The dark bay is a big threat to rebound back at Churchill (6-3-2-1 on dirt tracks). Steve Asmussen got a taste of Derby fever last year with Curlin (Smart Strike), who finished third under the Twin Spires, and he's probably planned Pyro's schedule to the minute in order to have the colt at his best on May 3. Weaknesses: Derby winners don't finish 10th in their final prep race. The Blue Grass was also Pyro's first start at nine furlongs, and his ability to handle 1 1/4 miles is no certainty. His performances at Fair Grounds were visually impressive, but his Speed ratings were average. RECAPTURETHEGLORY -- 104, 86, 99 Strengths: Louie Roussel runner will enter the Derby on the upswing following a four-length, wire-to-wire score in the Illinois Derby, and his 104 Speed rating is a notable accomplishment in this year's field. In 2002, a front-running War Emblem came to hand for his connections in April and went on to win the Derby, and Recapturetheglory will attempt to follow the same path. The defection of War Pass helps his chances of securing a front-running trip under E.T. Baird, and he's run well at Churchill before, finishing second in a November allowance. Weaknesses: Only a maiden winner entering the Illinois Derby, Recapturetheglory parlayed an inside speed bias into an uncontested victory on the lead. He probably won't enjoy the same luxury in the Derby, and his ability to get 10 furlongs is questionable. SMOOTH AIR -- 105, 95, 99 Strengths: He's never finished out of the money (7-3-2-2) and ran a good second in the Florida Derby, 7 1/2 lengths clear of third. He's a heartwarming story, with 70-year-old Florida horseman Bennie Stutts saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter, and you can't knock the Grade 2 winner's consistency. Smooth Air (Smooth Jazz) is a candidate to outperform low expectations. Weaknesses: Winner of the seven-furlong Hutcheson S. (G2), Smooth Air is better suited to sprints/middle distances based on his breeding. He's handled two turns in his last two outings, but the Kentucky Derby will be a grueling task against much deeper company. TALE OF EKATI -- 100, 92, 94 Strengths: An excellent winner of the seven-furlong Futurity (G2) at two, Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat) was a very well-regarded colt entering 2008 but didn't run a step in the Louisiana Derby after breaking poorly in his first start back. He earned a measure of redemption in the Wood Memorial, gamely wearing down War Pass to win by a half-length, and Tale of Ekati received a commendable 100 Speed rating despite being softened up by the fast pace. He's eligible to improve off that tightener, and his female breeding suggests that he will relish a classic distance. The bay colt's stalk-and-pounce style could also prove effective. Weaknesses: Tagg drilled the slow-starting colt twice from the gate following the Louisiana Derby, and Tale of Ekati will risk being compromised in traffic if he misses the break on Derby Day. While his female family is strong, sire Tale of the Cat doesn't inspire much confidence at 10 furlongs. Tale of Ekati has raced only twice this year, and one can legitimately question whether he's good enough at this point in his career to win the Derby. VISIONAIRE -- 90, 100, 93 Strengths: He's a strong closer, overcoming a serious late deficit to win the Gotham S. (G3) in the final jumps, and Visionaire (Grand Slam) was the only late runner to make an impact in the Blue Grass, finishing up well for fifth. The Derby-winning Michael Matz appears confident in the improving colt, and the chestnut figures to be motoring in the stretch. If a fast pace exacts an extreme toll, Visionaire is a viable candidate to pick up the pieces. Weaknesses: Visionaire won't be the selection of any pedigree experts. He doesn't own a fashionable pedigree for 1 1/4 miles, and hasn't beat much so far in his career, knocking off Texas Wildcatter (Monarchos) and Larry's Revenge (Vindication) in the Gotham. Z FORTUNE -- 100, 92, 94 Strengths: Asmussen runner opened his sophomore campaign with a solid score in the Lecomte S. (G3) and a runner-up effort to Pyro in the Risen Star. Following a clunker in the Rebel, he bounced back well in the Arkansas Derby, missing by less than a length following a wide trip. The ground loss hurt him that afternoon, but the stretch duel with Gayego will likely toughen up Z Fortune for the Kentucky Derby. The gray colt has registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings in five-of-six lifetime starts, and he could parlay a grinding trip from off the pace into a strong showing. Weaknesses: Realistically, nobody expects to see a New York-bred by Siphon win the Kentucky Derby, and Z Fortune might not want any more ground than nine furlongs. The Arkansas Derby didn't feature the strongest company, so Z Fortune still has class concerns. Z HUMOR -- 99, 90, 91 Strengths: Owns a terrific pedigree for the Kentucky Derby, and the Grade 3-winning colt has subtly improved in every outing this year, going from fifth to fourth to third in the Illinois Derby most recently. Two of the last four Derby winners dropped all their seasonal preps (Funny Cide and Giacomo), and Z HUMOR (Distorted Humor) is eligible to keep improving for Mott while relishing the 1 1/4-mile distance. His tactical speed is another attribute. Z Humor shows a nice work at Churchill last week, and he figures to be forwardly placed from the start. Weaknesses: Considering that the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) dead-heat winner hasn't been a serious factor in any 2008 starts, subtle improvement is a tough sell in the Derby. Z Humor will need to show much more on May 3, and he might not be good enough to beat top-class horses. Top 10 1) PYRO -- Doubts sprung up with Blue Grass clunker, but expect him to rebound in Derby 2) COLONEL JOHN -- Appears set to run a big one; sending him to Churchill early is a good move to get him acquainted with dirt track 3) BIG BROWN -- Derby favorite is a threat to get a clear early lead with War Pass out 4) ADRIANO -- Prado passed up Wood winner and Blue Grass winner to ride him; very dangerous 5) TALE OF EKATI -- Like his running style; Tagg colt has plenty of upside 6) GAYEGO -- Distance could be an obstacle, but he has a chance to run really well 7) MONBA -- Blue Grass hero ran well at Churchill last year; tactical speed is an asset in Derby 8) VISIONAIRE -- Too much to overcome in Blue Grass, he closed well for fifth; strong late runner 9) COOL COAL MAN -- Must throw out Polytrack effort; Zito trainee will offer plenty of value in Derby 10) Z FORTUNE -- Exits an excellent runner-up in Arkansas Derby; one to consider for the exotics
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