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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JULY 18, 2008 by Dick Powell Del Mar opened up its 69th season of racing on Wednesday and am I the only person hoping the main track plays like last year? Despite all the criticism, Del Mar's main track last year was the most consistent racing surface I have ever played. Yes, the newly installed Polytrack was dramatically slower in the afternoon than it was for morning training. It generated complaints from horsemen regarding its maintenance as the track dried out in the afternoon sun. They felt that it needed to be watered, the manufacturer said it didn't and management decided not to make any changes while the meet was underway. This year, the composition of the track has been changed slightly and it will be watered if it gets too hot. It is expected that running times will be faster than last year. Last year's Polytrack was incredibly consistent day in and day out. There was hardly any variance from one day to the other. Obviously, part of it is the amazing weather that the San Diego area enjoys. But part of it was how Polytrack performed each day, throughout the day. The nuance that most handicappers missed last year was how well speed held up in sprint races. Yes, the track was dramatically slower than anything that we were used to. But up to around seven furlongs, speed did very well. Too many handicappers saw the two-turn races with horses rallying from the back of the pack to win going away and concluded that speed did not hold up. Last year's data showed speed dominated in sprint races on the Polytrack up to seven furlongs. In two-turn races, speed did terrible with deep closers dominating. BRIS' Track Bias Stats shows each distance run, the number of races run at that distance, the percentage of horses that won going wire to wire, the Speed Bias at that distance and the average distance the winner was behind at the first call.
Once the races go to seven furlongs in distance, the energy returned from the Polytrack drops dramatically and it becomes very tiring. For the three most frequently run sprint distances, speed horses did extremely well. For the two most frequently run two-turn races, closers did extremely well. These trends held up throughout the meet and were reliable throughout each race day. Hopefully, the change in composition and maintenance will not affect this reliability. One of the most positive aspects of synthetic racing surfaces is that the track superintendent plays less of a role once the racing begins. Now that the track is going to be watered, I wonder how consistent the racing surface will be. CURLIN (Smart Strike) was beaten in his turf debut by RED ROCKS (Galileo) in the Man o' War S. (G1) at Belmont Park. Just like I thought his turf workout at Churchill did not prove he neither liked turf nor disliked it, Saturday's race was more of the same. What was disappointing is that if you are using the Man o' War as a barometer to see if Curlin is going to be able to handle turf for a future European campaign, it would have been better had he run over a turf course that resembles what he might face overseas. The turf course at Belmont on Saturday was rock hard. It was nothing like he would run over at Longchamp in September and October. Turf courses in Europe never resemble what Curlin raced on since if they were that hard and dry, the course superintendent would water it to soften it up. So Curlin ran second in a wide trip in his turf debut behind the 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) winner and finished ahead of the winner of 2004 Breeders' Cup Turf winner BETTER TALK NOW (Talkin Man). Is that enough to take on Europe's best? Majority owner Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen now have an impossible decision to make. Do they go to Europe and try to win its most prestigious race without still knowing how Curlin will handle the surface? Do they try another turf race in America before shipping over? What if he goes and loses his prep race? Do you persevere or come home for one or two final starts in America? My guess is that all these questions will have the cumulative effect of deciding to stay home and finish his career in America. I wouldn't blame Curlin's connections if that is what they do but can't help but wonder how he would have handled a turf course that had some give to it.
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