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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 1, 2008 by Dick Powell Two weeks in the books at Del Mar and the changes in their Polytrack racing surface have resulted in faster times, but even more horses have been able to win from far back. In 2007, there were 105 races run at six furlongs and despite very slow winning times, the Speed Bias found in your BRIS Ultimate Past Performances was 67 percent. This year, there have been 23 races run at six furlongs and the Speed Bias is only 30 percent. Last year in the six-furlong races, the average distance that the winner was behind at the first call was 2.3 lengths. This year, the distance is 3.2 lengths. In two-turn races, speed is doing better than last year based on a small sample. So what we have so far is a reversal of last year's trend of speed in sprints up to 6 1/2 furlongs and closers in two-turn races. It pays to be adaptable. Saratoga had about eight inches of rain in the first four days as the racing was marred by a wet main track and little turf racing. On Saturday evening, the Saratoga area was hit by violent thunderstorms of biblical proportions. I had a friend call me early Sunday morning and I guaranteed him that the races would be off the turf. Besides the torrential rains, the rails were down on both turf courses so I assumed that a New York-bred non-winners of one and a $35,000 claimer that have not won three races would be switched to protect the very part of the turf courses that needs protecting the most. Luckily my guarantees do not come with a "double your money back" clause since Sunday's 7TH and 11th races stayed on the turf that was rated "soft." But after 12 races were already switched to the main track, every effort is being made to race on the turf. Years ago, fewer races were taken off the turf and with horses making more starts you could actually examine their "non-firm" turf form. Now, with horses making fewer starts and fewer turf races staying on when it rains, it’s harder to judge who will like it "soft." I like to go with turf horses that have extreme running styles when the turf is soft -- either they show that they can go to the front and rate or come from way behind. With soft turf, horses that are stalking do not always get footing that they like and they often run one-paced. Horses on the front end that can slow the pace down have a good shot and horses that build up their momentum to make one, big run also tend to do well. One of the many reasons that I like to wager on racing conducted over synthetic tracks is the reduced role that the track superintendent plays during the running of the races. Case in point was Saturday at Saratoga. With all the rain and constant sealing, the Saratoga main track was very fast early on Saturday. MUNNINGS (Speightstown) won his juvenile career debut for Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez, covering six furlongs in 1:09.84 in the 2ND race. ACAI (Three Wonders) won a nine-furlong non-winners of one allowance race in 1:50.42 in the 4TH race and JOPPA FLATS (Broken Vow) broke his maiden at 34-1 going seven furlongs in 1:21.71 while making his 21st start. Let's just say that nothing in his prior 20 starts indicated that a 1:21.71 seven-furlong time was in his immediate future. With times like this, who knows how fast the upcoming three main track stake races would be run? The 7TH was on the turf and a funny thing happened to the tractors that groom the track. Instead of going counter-clockwise like they normally do, they came out on the main track and went around clockwise for the rest of the day. Just like professional golfers have to read the grain on the green before putting, the main track races were now against the grain. The Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G2) was won by ABRAAJ (Carson City) by 2 1/2 lengths. The running time for the six furlongs of 1:10.23 was the slowest in its 24 runnings. Next up was the nine-furlong Go for Wand S. (G1) for fillies and mares. It attracted last year's champion, GINGER PUNCH (Awesome Again), and after severe traffic problems she was able to shake loose and draw away to a 1 1/4-length score. Her final time of 1:53.43 was by far the slowest ever since the race was changed from a mile to nine furlongs in 1994. The next slowest running time was 1:50 4/5. The 10TH was the nine-furlong Whitney H. (G1). A wide open affair with seven of its 11 starters going off at single-digit odds, it turned into a stroll down memory lane as COMMENTATOR (Distorted Humor), winner of the 2005 Whitney, went gate to wire again. Unlike in 2005 when he held on by a desperate nose ahead of Saint Liam, Commentator won this year's renewal by a comfortable 4 3/4 lengths. A dog that has learned a new trick, Commentator showed early this year at Gulfstream that he can rate and relax early in his races. His win in the Richter Scale H. (G2) going seven furlongs was the only time I can remember that he won a race without having a lead early. He should have won the Met Mile (G1) but wound up catching a very slow main track at Belmont that was killing speed all weekend. Now in the Whitney, he broke running with Velazquez, who has been aboard him all year and has been a major factor in Commentator's ability to use his speed while conserving energy. His first quarter of :24.16 was the slowest in his career and when Tasteyville (With Approval) and Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor) had traffic problems at the start and did not provide the expected pace pressure, the Whitney was over. Commentator's final time of 1:50.23 was the slowest Whitney since Staunchness won in 1967. So a blazing-fast main track suddenly slows down and the only logical explanation was the direction of the tractors. There was a light shower during the Go Forf Wand and before the Whitney, but that should have speeded the track up. Luckily I stayed for the entire card, saw it myself and the reverse tractor angle was widely discussed by handicappers on track. If you are a handicapper that wasn't there and looks up Saturday's charts, you are going to have a hard time figuring out whether Joppa Flats is the second coming of Dr. Fager after running seven furlongs in 1:21.71 on a day that graded stakes winners couldn’t break 1:50 for nine furlongs or 1:10 for six furlongs. Consider it "Exhibit A" in the case against senseless track maintenance during the races. Aidan O'Brien won his 16th Group 1 stakes race on Wednesday when HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (Kingmambo) won the Sussex S. (Eng-G1) at Goodwood. A close second was Stonerside Stable's Raven’s Pass (Elusive Quality), whose furious late rally just fell short. The European flat season is only half over and O'Brien is on a record pace to win more Group 1 stakes races than ever before. Henrythenavigator is expected to contest the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Santa Anita later this year after one or two more starts at a mile in Europe. Other than very soft turf, he has shown he can run on just about anything and with a synthetic racing surface on Santa Anita's main track, he'll be one of many international horses that will get off the turf and try the "dirf." Legislation has been proposed in Washington that would remove the $5,000 withholding threshold on large winning wagers. Two points: (1) it is proposed legislation and Washington's process is an arduous one; don’t get your hopes up yet. (2) if it does get passed, your winnings on large payoffs will still be taxed. The difference is that when you sign for a ticket you will get the full amount. Yes, you can churn the money that would have been withheld but remember you will eventually have to pay your taxes.
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