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INTERNATIONALS IN THE BREEDERS' CUP OCTOBER 23, 2008 by Kellie Reilly The 25th running of the Breeders' Cup features an outstanding brigade of international raiders. Let's take a look at each of them, arranged in order of their respective races. I'll highlight their strengths, and possible weaknesses, before rendering my own verdict. BREEDERS' CUP FRIDAY Filly & Mare Sprint LADY SPRINTER (Orientate) was a speed machine in Argentina. She ran older males ragged in the Gran Premio Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Arg-G1), defeating multiple Group 1 hero Compasivo Cat (Easing Along), and the Gran Premio Maipu (Arg-G1), dethroning the defending champion Knock (Luhuk). As brilliant as she is at five furlongs, Lady Sprinter is an unknown quantity beyond that distance, and this is a brutal spot to test seven furlongs for the first time. I'm also a little concerned about new trainer Juan Reviriego's strategy of altering her running style, converting her from a blistering pacesetter into a closer. While it's a logical way of trying to help her get the added distance, such tinkering does not often achieve the desired result. Lady Sprinter is talented enough to do well in the United States, but this debut looks like trial by fire. Juvenile Fillies Turf APRIL PRIDE (GB) (Falbrav [Ire]) is a really intriguing contender in her American debut for Jim Cassidy, and I'm thrilled that she's in the field after being ranked only fourth on the also-eligible list at the pre-entry stage. Formerly trained by Richard Hannon in England, the bay has been competing well against some solid opponents, finishing three lengths behind Cuis Ghaire (Galileo [Ire]) in the Albany S. (Eng-G3) at Royal Ascot and was most recently a good third to the first-rate Fantasia (Sadler's Wells) in the Prestige S. (Eng-G3). Fantasia came right back to take runner-up honors behind the unbeaten Rainbow View (Dynaformer), England's top juvenile filly, in the Fillies' Mile (Eng-G1). April Pride has sometimes compromised her chances by failing to relax early, but an honest pace and longer trip should remedy that. This firm-turf lover has serious upset potential, and she rates an excellent long-term prospect for Southern California's turf series for sophomore fillies. In short, she looks like a shrewd purchase for Forging Oaks Farm. Note that her sire, Falbrav (Ire), was a close third in the 2003 Turf (G1) here at Santa Anita, and her broodmare sire, champion Theatrical (Ire), captured the 1987 Turf at Hollywood. The well-bred HEART SHAPED (Storm Cat), who represents the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard, is better than her past performances imply. Indeed, like any self-respecting O'Brien juvenile, she already has a classic engagement for next spring, in her case the Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1). The winner of the five-furlong Marble Hill S. on firm turf at the Curragh, she was bumped at the break of the Queen Mary S. (Eng-G2) and didn't enjoy the softish conditions in the Cherry Hinton S. (Eng-G2). The chestnut returned from a three-month holiday to finish an encouraging fifth in the six-furlong Cheveley Park S. (Eng-G1) after fluffing the start. Obviously, Heart Shaped can't afford to do that here, especially because she appears to be more of a grinder who needs to be forwardly placed early. Considering that she's a half-sister to A.P. Valentine (A.P. Indy), Heart Shaped is probably crying out for a longer trip, so I expect her to give a good account of herself in the firm-turf mile. BEYOND OUR REACH (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) is still a maiden, but an accomplished one at that. Just missing when third to a subsequent stakes-placed filly on her debut, the Tommy Stack pupil was a creditable third in the seven-furlong Moyglare Stud S. (Ire-G1), beaten by the top-class Again (Danehill Dancer) and the very smart Shimah (Storm Cat). Beyond Our Reach did not thrive when cutting back to six furlongs in the Cheveley Park, winding up ninth and well adrift of Heart Shaped. That was also her first attempt on good-to-firm turf, which begs the question of whether she prefers a little bit of give in the ground. On the other hand, her connections would not have shipped her all this way if they weren't convinced that she handles a fast surface, and she is highly regarded enough to hold an Irish Guineas entry. I'm benevolently neutral about her chances. Juvenile Fillies The David Wachman-trained PURSUIT OF GLORY (Fusaichi Pegasus) convincingly defeated both Heart Shaped and Beyond Our Reach in the Cheveley Park, where she stayed on well for third, beaten a total of 1 1/4 lengths by the perfect Serious Attitude (Mtoto). Her performance was particularly commendable because the Cheveley Park was her first race against winners, as well as her first try on turf. A clueless fourth in her debut on the synthetic at Dundalk, the bay showed just how much she'd advanced on the learning curve next time out at that same track. Demonstrating a real change of gear, Pursuit of Glory romped by six lengths, and flashed more than a hint that she may live up to her name. As a daughter of Coronation S. (Eng-G1) heroine Sophisticat (Storm Cat), and a granddaughter of champion Serena's Song (Rahy), she is bred in the purple. The 1 1/16-mile trip will be a novel experience for her, but that should be well within her scope, given her pedigree as well as her rapid improvement. Pursuit of Glory has no shortage of talent, and she is capable of snaring a Breeders' Cup title that eluded Serena's Song. Filly & Mare Turf HALFWAY TO HEAVEN (Ire) (Pivotal) ranks as one of the leaders of her generation, largely because of her heart and unwavering determination. The O'Brien filly was an honorable third to the great Zarava and Mile (G1) threat Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (Fr-G1), hanging on bravely after tracking a fast pace. Halfway to Heaven later battled to narrow victories in the Irish One Thousand Guineas and Sun Chariot S. (Eng-G1) at one mile, and the Nassau S. (Eng-G1) at about 1 1/4 miles. The Nassau was her only attempt at this distance, however, and as outlined in my Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf diary, she profited from an unusually advantageous set of circumstances that will not obtain here. Halfway to Heaven, who has already done well to outrun her sprint-oriented pedigree, may find this a shade too far. Nor does she have quite the profile of the previous European-trained winners of this event, who all boasted strong form versus males, and she is a touch below her Irish contemporary Lush Lashes (Galileo [Ire]). Halfway to Heaven is nevertheless a top-class performer with tactical speed, and her true grit should not be underestimated. She might excel herself once again and win this, but I'm inclined to view her as more of a minor place-getter in this spot. Godolphin's FOLK OPERA (Ire) (Singspiel [Ire]) progressed over the course of the season, capping her rise with an emphatic, front-running success in the E.P. Taylor S. (Can-G1) at Woodbine. In Europe this summer, her highlights included a victory over a decent group in the Prix Jean Romanet (Fr-G2) and a good second in the Aphrodite S. while trying to give 15 pounds to the solid Dar Re Mi (Singspiel [Ire]), who has chased Zarkava and Lush Lashes. Her two unplaced efforts come with asterisks, for the ground was against her in the Lancashire Oaks (Eng-G2) and she was taken out of her pacesetting game by the Ballydoyle rabbits in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1). Her tactical speed is an undeniable asset at Santa Anita, and she will stay every yard of this distance, and beyond. Like Halfway to Heaven, though, Folk Opera has not compiled a resume equal to those of past Filly & Mare Turf winners from Europe. While Frankie Dettori put on a master class in the E.P. Taylor, lulling his rivals to sleep, he is unlikely to get the same free pass on the front end here against an even better field. I may be underestimating Folk Opera, but I believe that she needs to take another step forward to land the spoils. VISIT (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]) is coming off a respectable third to Halfway to Heaven and the older Darjina in the Sun Chariot. Defeated all of 1 1/2 lengths, the Juddmonte Farms homebred was herself 3 3/4 lengths clear of fourth. Visit showed promise last year as a juvenile, breaking her maiden in the Princess Margaret S. (Eng-G3) and finishing second in a terrific edition of the Lowther S. (Eng-G2). Unfortunately, she was disqualified from the Lowther after testing positive for a tranquilizer, but that performance was surely indicative of her true ability. Although she's never raced past a mile, her pedigree strongly suggests that she will enjoy stepping up in trip. Visit is a half-sister to Promising Lead (Danehill), a Group 1 heroine at 1 1/4 miles, and even more tantalizingly for her Breeders' Cup hopes, she is out of a full sister to Hasili (Ire) (Kahyasi), the dam of 2001 Filly & Mare Turf queen Banks Hill (GB) and 2005 Filly & Mare Turf victress Intercontinental (GB). Although she richly deserves her spot in this event, I wonder, if she were not due to be transferred to Bobby Frankel anyway, would she be entered? If plans called for her to remain with Sir Michael Stoute in England next year, would she have shipped in expressly for this? Still, one can hardly get a better pedigree angle than hers, and I won't be shocked if she makes the frame. BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY Marathon As the winner of the 2006 St Leger (Eng-G1), SIXTIES ICON (GB) (Galileo [Ire]) lends a touch of class to the inaugural running of this 1 1/2-mile affair on the main track. The Jeremy Noseda charge has had mixed fortunes since his classic triumph, reportedly because of breathing problems, but he's been at the top of his game of late. Sixties Icon defeated eventual Canadian International (Can-G1) runner-up Spice Route (GB) (King's Best) in the Festival S. to kick off his three-race winning streak, scored a hard-fought verdict in the Geoffrey Freer S. (Eng-G3), and easily dismissed his foes in the Cumberland Lodge S. (Eng-G3) last time out. In those past two, however, he had to overcome tardy starts, and that could prove his undoing here. The other primary concern is his lack of racing experience on a synthetic surface. There's no doubting his ability, though, and it's worth remembering that when he won the Leger in fine style, he left subsequent Turf hero Red Rocks (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) behind in third. I imagine that Dettori will try to take measures to keep him focused at the gate, and if he handles the Pro-Ride, Sixties Icon is the one they all have to beat. MUHANNAK (Ire) (Chester House) is the reverse of Sixties Icon, in that his synthetic proficiency is established, but his class is not. Trained by the up-and-coming Ralph Beckett, the gelding has steadily risen through the ranks on the all-weather, and he most recently captured his stakes debut in the Diamond S. at Dundalk. The Diamond form ties in with some very good types, since the dependable runner-up had previously chased The Bogberry (Hawk Wing) and Famous Name (Dansili [GB]) on turf, but comparing formlines across surfaces is not the soundest methodology. By any measure, Muhannak is taking a stiff class hike here. The only crystal clear conclusion is that he is vastly better on synthetic than on turf, but it's anyone's guess how far that takes him against these. Turf Sprint Noseda's FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) is a dazzlingly fast sophomore filly who has held her own against Europe's best male sprinters. As a juvenile, she won the Molecomb S. (Eng-G3) over the colt Kingsgate Native, who came right back to garner the Nunthorpe S. (Eng-G1), becoming the first two-year-old to conquer older horses in that event since 1992. Fleeting Spirit went on to defeat males in the Flying Childers S. (Eng-G2) in juvenile course-record time, and she just missed to the high-class Natagora (Divine Light) in the Cheveley Park. She opened her three-year-old campaign with a course-record victory in the Temple S. (Eng-G2) over the tough older male Borderlescott (Compton Place), who would go on to take this year's Nunthorpe. An excellent third in the King's Stand S. (Eng-G1) to Equiano (Acclamation) and the globetrotting star Takeover Target (Celtic Swing) when Noseda felt that she was not at her best, Fleeting Spirit was rested until the Prix de l'Abbaye (Fr-G1). When her stall failed to open, causing a false start and a fiasco, she hit her head hard and twisted a shoe. After all of that nonsense, it was to her great credit that she was able to take part in the re-run of the race and checked in fifth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by Europe's pre-eminent sprinter, Marchand d'Or (Marchand de Sable). It's unclear how this five-furlong straightaway phenom will cope with Santa Anita's uniquely turning downhill course, and the about 6 1/2-furlong trip is farther than she has ever been. Of course, the gravity-assisted 6 1/2 here is less taxing than the straight six at Newmarket, which she handled in the Cheveley Park. She has a fantastic turn of foot, and I'm looking forward to a big effort from her. I won't spend an inordinate amount of space on DIABOLICAL (Artax), primarily because his greatest success came on the dirt in the United States before he was snapped up by Godolphin. He looked like his old self for a brief moment in Dubai this past March, when he outclassed the field in the Mahab al Shimaal (UAE-G3). After his disappointing performance in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1), Diabolical was switched to the turf. Although he's run creditably most of the time, his best results have typically come on good ground, such as his close sixth to Marchand d'Or in the July Cup (Eng-G1) and his near-miss, troubled second in the Diadem S. (Eng-G2) last time out. Most tellingly, trainer Saeed bin Suroor said at Diadem time that Diabolical was in the best shape he'd ever had him. Given his proven class, preference for fast ground and his currently fine fettle, Diabolical is an obvious threat in the Turf Sprint. I still wonder whether he's better on dirt, or how he would have handled the Pro-Ride, though. The ever-dangerous Andre Fabre has dispatched ONLY ANSWER (GB) (Green Desert), a four-year-old filly whose strongest qualification is that she excels on good turf and will likely improve when encountering firm going here. Successful in the Prix de Saint-Georges (Fr-G3) in May, she scored a game victory in the Prix du Petit-Couvert (Fr-G3) in her latest venture. On both occasions, Only Answer beat males, but not the top-tier variety that Fleeting Spirit has beaten. Indeed, on a strict constructionist view of the form, she is some way behind Fleeting Spirit. On the other hand, we probably have not seen the best that Only Answer has to offer, for she has frequently encountered softer than ideal conditions. For that reason, this daughter of multiple Group 1 heroine Occupandiste (Ire) (Kaldoun) looms as a wild card in her first try on truly quick ground. Dirt Mile LORD ADMIRAL (El Prado [Ire]) will test whether one can teach an old dog new tricks in the so-called Dirt Mile. A well-traveled seven-year-old trained by Charles O'Brien for his father, the legendary horseman Vincent O'Brien, Lord Admiral has never raced on a synthetic surface in his lengthy career. On the turf, he has been a faithful servant of the stable, usually running well in solid company while falling short of Group 1 standard. Hence, from a class perspective, this spot fits him better than the grassy Mile. Lord Admiral has performed best on left-handed courses, a trend that has continued this season with scores in the Al Rashidiya (UAE-G3) and Jebel Hatta (UAE-G2), a pair of Group 3 placings at Leopardstown, an honest fifth to the all-star New Approach in the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) and a fourth in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. Two years ago he visited Santa Anita, where he reported home a solid third to Aragorn (Ire) in the Oak Tree Mile (G2). With plenty of early speed on tap in the Pro-Ride Mile, Lord Admiral will get a legitimate pace to set up his closing kick, and I wouldn't put it past this veteran to get up for a piece of the purse. Mile Since I had written at length about both European contenders in my Breeders' Cup Turf diary, I will try to hit the high points while offering something new. GOLDIKOVA is the clear choice on form. Based in France with trainer Freddie Head, who rode the extraordinary Miesque to her two Mile triumphs in 1987-88, the three-year-old filly has defeated older horses in two prestigious contests. She powered away from distaffers in the Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1), and she conquered males, including Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo), in the Prix de Moulin (Fr-G1). The Moulin form was subsequently boosted when third-placer Paco Boy (Desert Style) romped in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1). Goldikova has tasted defeat only three times in her career, two of those at the hands of the sublime Zarkava, and once to an inferior opponent on heavy ground in her sophomore debut. Her runner-up effort to Zarkava in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French One Thousand Guineas) (Fr-G1) was especially noteworthy because Goldikova literally went to her nose at the break, yet still ran down Halfway to Heaven to grab second. That is one reason why I rate Goldikova superior to Halfway to Heaven, despite the fact that they have both beaten the older Darjina by the same half-length margin in different races. If Goldikova has a weakness, it may be the way this race shapes up. In France, she has been a close stalker who surges to the front and holds sway. Here, the pace figures to be very fast, so she could be farther back than she's accustomed to being in the early going. Will she come flying from farther out of it, will she find too much to do in the stretch, or will her exceptional speed keep her close regardless of the pace? I suspect that Goldikova's class will shine through, however the Mile unfolds. The Aidan O'Brien-trained US RANGER (Danzig) is my longshot selection, as described in my diary. The beautifully bred bay began his career at one mile with excellent results, but he has not contested this distance since his sneakily good seventh in last year's Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1). Confined to sprints thereafter, US Ranger has been frustratingly inconsistent, and his attitude has not gone unquestioned. On his day, however, he is capable of a huge performance, as best exemplified when he lost a heartbreaker to Marchand d'Or in the aforementioned July Cup. Most recently he added blinkers in the Foret and closed for third to Paco Boy, suggesting that he's got a way to go to trouble Goldikova. But this two-turn mile will be worlds apart from the dashes that US Ranger has been competing in, and the stretch-out could finally bring out his long-hidden talent. Juvenile BUSHRANGER (Ire) (Danetime) has been the consummate professional two-year-old for Wachman. In the course of winning such events as the Middle Park S. (Eng-G1), Prix Morny (Fr-G1) and Anglesey S. (Ire-G3), he has defeated several classy performers, including Juvenile Turf contender Westphalia (Ire) (Danehill Dancer). Indeed, other Bushranger victims have gone on to sweep the top three places in both the Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) and Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Fr-G1). He has yet to race on a synthetic track, though, and an even bigger question staring him in the face is the 1 1/16-mile trip. Bushranger has been plying his trade at five to 6 1/2 furlongs, and his ability to cope with two turns on a strange surface is a complete unknown. If he runs up to his European standard, he would be a major contender, but I don't know what to expect. For whatever it's worth, he does not strike me as the type to progress into a classic prospect next season. Rather, I suspect that he may maintain his lofty ranking as a sprinter, and not as a Guineas horse. If my instinct is right, Bushranger may not put his best foot forward in the Juvenile. On the other hand, his terrific professionalism could carry him a long way at this stage of his career, possibly even further than he'll end up going at three. Juvenile Turf WESTPHALIA brings strong form into this affair, having collared the highly regarded Zacinto (Dansili [GB]) in deep stretch to take the Champagne S. (Eng-G2) last time out. The third-place finisher in the Champagne has since come back to win the Silver Tankard S. at Pontefract on Monday. Two starts back, the Aidan O'Brien pupil was sent off as the 4-5 favorite in the Futurity S. (Ire-G2), where he disappointed on the heavy ground and wound up a well-beaten seventh. Nevertheless, his short price against a few salty rivals on that occasion implies that he has a fairly nice reputation at home. In his career debut, Westphalia just missed to eventual Dewhurst hero Intense Focus (Giant's Causeway); in July, he recovered from a slow start to finish second to Bushranger in the aforementioned Anglesey; and next time out, he engineered a last-to-first victory in the Hurricane Run S. at Tipperary. Aside from the impressive manner of his triumph, his score is a useful guide to his Breeders' Cup prospects for two reasons: it proved that he enjoys a sharp left-handed course, and the third-placer, Driving Snow (GB) (Verglas [Ire]), has since appeared at Keeneland and almost upset morning-line Juvenile Turf favorite Bittel Road (Stormy Atlantic) in the Bourbon S. I think that Westphalia is a much better colt than Achill Island (Ire) (Sadler's Wells), the Ballydoyle runner who finished second in the inaugural 2007 running of this contest. Westphalia can conclude his campaign with a flourish before heading into winter quarters and eyeing his classic entries. DONATIVUM (GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) has thankfully gotten into this race after being relegated to the top of the also-eligible list at pre-entry time. The John Gosden trainee fully deserved to be in the main body of the field from the beginning. Although well beaten when showing signs of inexperience in his first three outings, he was competing against several quality opponents, so those efforts are not as iffy as they appear on paper. Moreover, they all occurred before he was gelded, and he is two-for-two since that solution was imposed. Donativum promptly broke through with a facile maiden score and followed up with a decisive victory in the Tattersalls Timeform Million S., closing stoutly in the latter stages to conquer the well thought-of Crowded House (Rainbow Quest) and Solario S. (Eng-G3) winner Sri Putra (Oasis Dream [GB]), among other smart types. (Saturday news flash: for anyone who may be reading this just in advance of the race, note that Crowded House bolted home in the prestigious Racing Post Trophy [Eng-G1] this morning, making Donativum, an already hot property, even hotter in this contest.) As a gelding, Donativum will find his opportunities for glory limited in Europe, so this could well be the start of a prosperous career in America, or at least the first of many invasions for this talented performer. Although he bears the lovely green of Princess Haya at present, I won't be surprised if he is ultimately promoted to the Godolphin royal blue. PADDY THE PRO (Ire) (Exceed and Excel), who will make his first start for Paddy Gallagher, is the least accomplished of the European trio. I don't hold his debut defeat against him, considering that he was slowly away on unsuitably soft ground, but his only subsequent starts have come in all-weather sprints at Dundalk. Paddy the Pro broke his maiden in the same event in which Juvenile Fillies candidate Pursuit of Glory was fourth. No hasty conclusions should be drawn from that bare result, for every other horse in that maiden race is still a maiden at this writing, and it was obviously an educational experience for Pursuit of Glory. Indeed, to give Paddy special credit for that would be the equivalent of praising Change Up (Distorted Humor) for beating Rags to Riches on her debut. Next time out, Paddy captured a premier handicap in grand style, but again, those rivals bear no comparison to the company his comrades have been keeping on turf. He may turn out to be a great acquisition for his connections, but it's asking an awful lot to try two turns and step up markedly in class at the same time. Turf I practically wrote a biography of EAGLE MOUNTAIN (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) in my Breeders' Cup Turf diary, so I will keep my synopsis of him rather crisp in this spot. The Irish highweight sophomore at 9 1/2 to 11 furlongs last year when trained by Aidan O'Brien, he stamped himself as a major-league individual when storming home for second in the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) and going down narrowly in the Champion S. (Eng-G1). Eagle Mountain was purchased privately and turned over to Mike de Kock, but before he could campaign in Dubai, he fractured his pelvis and was on the sidelines until early October, returning with a last-gasp score in the Joel S. (Eng-G3) in course-record time. Obviously, it is a tall order to win the Turf in just his second start off a nearly year-long layoff. De Kock is a master at his craft, however, and I have confidence that he can pull off such a training feat. Nor am I worried about a regression off the Joel, for in 2007, his former trainer noted that Eagle Mountain was very much like his sire, Rock of Gibraltar (Ire): both exited their races well and improved afterward. If Eagle Mountain still has that trait, he is eligible to run a monster race at Santa Anita, where the conditions will be ideal for him. As discussed in my Breeders' Cup Turf diary, I'm pleasantly surprised that CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani) has popped up here, since his swashbuckling St Leger (Eng-G1) triumph was originally hailed as his seasonal finale. The Stoute sophomore began his year in handicap company, but when he simply pulverized the field with an astonishing rally in a heritage handicap on Epsom Derby Day, it was apparent that he was no mere handicapper. His first two forays into group competition were not as scintillating, as he encountered a boatload of trouble en route to a second-place finish in the King Edward VII S. (Eng-G2) and just scraped home as the odds-on favorite in the Gordon S. (Eng-G3). That King Edward VII turned out to be a much finer effort in hindsight. The winner, Campanalogist (Kingmambo), came back to run well versus several top-tier older horses, and a few other King Edward alumni performed creditably too, especially eighth-placer WINCHESTER (Theatrical [Ire]), who annihilated the field in the Secretariat S. (G1). On the debit side, Conduit has never faced older horses, so the Turf represents a considerable challenge. And he's cutting back in trip from the about 1 3/4 miles of the St Leger in what could be cavalierly described as an afterthought at the end of the year. Those may be substantial obstacles to overcome, but I love this colt and expect him to do well here. SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) deserves to be the morning-line favorite, for he boasts the best resume in the field. The Aidan O'Brien charge romped in last year's Irish Derby (Ire-G1) on soft to heavy ground, leaving the fast-ground-preferred Eagle Mountain well back in third, but also landed the Prix Niel (Fr-G2) in stakes-record time on good going, and ranked as Ireland's highweight three-year-old from 11 to 14 furlongs. Soldier of Fortune opened his four-year-old campaign with a victory in the Coronation Cup (Eng-G1), and last time out, he finished in a dead-heat for third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), beaten 2 1/2 lengths by the all-conquering Zarkava. That was an improvement from the 2007 Arc, where he checked in fifth to Dylan Thomas (Ire). Despite his formidable record, I still worry that he may be vulnerable here, for reasons elaborated upon in my Breeders' Cup Turf diary. A resolute galloper, he has been outpaced at times by horses with greater acceleration, like Youmzain (Sinndar) twice this year, and like Authorized, Eagle Mountain and a couple of others in the Epsom Derby. Moreover, he appears to have done better with longer spacing between races, so the three weeks' interval after the Arc may be a tad short for him. Even if someone manages to outkick him for top honors at Santa Anita, he is more than entitled to finish in the top three. Regular readers may recall that I was bullish about WINCHESTER in advance of the Secretariat, and gave him my star performer designation in my ensuing diary. The Dermot Weld pupil could not have looked any better that day, not only in the course of the 1 1/4-mile race itself, but also during the gallop-out. He exceeded even my fondest expectations, based upon his encouraging European form. Winchester broke his maiden at the expense of eventual Irish Oaks (Ire-G1) heroine Moonstone (Dalakhani) in April, although she surely progressed beyond all recognition after that race, and he was a rallying second in the Silver S. next time out. Eighth in the aforementioned King Edward, he then finished seventh in the Irish Derby, a long way adrift of the winner, Frozen Fire (Montjeu [Ire]). There were enough clues embedded in those efforts, combined with the application of blinkers and the cutback to 10 furlongs, to mark him as a primary threat in the Secretariat. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the Turf, as much as I'd love to see him do well. He has yet to race since that Secretariat demolition job, and no horse has won the Turf off that long a break. If anyone can defy that statistic, it is Weld. But there are other concerns: Winchester should handle 1 1/2 miles on pedigree, but so far he has not, and he has never met older horses of this caliber. Even so, I might have blindly stuck with him in my top three, until Conduit showed up. Not only did Conduit crush him in the King Edward, but Conduit crushed Frozen Fire in the Leger. Perhaps Winchester can turn those results upside down in American conditions. Red Rocks is now technically an American. Last seen defeating Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart Strike) in the Man o' War S. (G1), he was then transferred to Mark Hennig, for whom he will be making his debut in the Turf. Like Winchester, Red Rocks is trying to buck history by winning this race off a layoff. Even more worrisome, he developed a hock infection that knocked him out of the Sword Dancer Invitational (G1), and such maladies can be tricky to overcome. RED ROCK CANYON (Ire) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) is the long-suffering Ballydoyle pacemaker. Perhaps one day he will be given an opportunity to break his maiden. Classic The Aidan O'Brien-trained DUKE OF MARMALADE (Ire) (Danehill) bestrode Europe like the proverbial colossus this season, reeling off five straight Group 1 scores. Among them were a four-length masterpiece in the 1 1/4-mile Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot and an epic, half-length triumph in the 1 1/2-mile King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1). His sequence came to a screeching halt in the Arc on rain-softened ground, when he never really looked like himself and checked in seventh. Whether The Duke will take to Pro-Ride is unknowable in advance, but for whatever it's worth, the distaff side of his pedigree is loaded with dirt influences, and he comes from the family of A.P. Indy. The distance is no obstacle, and he travels so well just off the pace that he promises to get an advantageous trip. Of more immediate concern is his current form: has his summer brilliance faded in the fall? Is the Breeders' Cup a bridge too far after all that he's achieved? Given his tremendous attitude, and the fact that he is made of pretty stern stuff, I will venture that The Duke will still be in tip-top shape. It would be a battle for the ages if he and Curlin set sail for home together. (Update: After this article was first posted, I came across the following quote from jockey Johnny Murtagh on the Sporting Life website: "If he [The Duke] hooks up with Curlin at the top of the stretch, I think it will be a battle royal." Either we are both deluded, or we are onto something.) HENRYTHENAVIGATOR's promise to become the next Rock of Gibraltar went awry in his past two starts. A stablemate of The Duke, Henry compiled a four-race winning streak at the start of the year, comprising the English and Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1), St James's Palace (Eng-G1) and Sussex S. (Eng-G1), all on fast ground. Faced with good-to-soft conditions in the Moulin, he never threatened the aforementioned Goldikova, and he was again confounded by loose sod when runner-up to his archrival RAVEN'S PASS (Elusive Quality) in the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1). Note that according to the Racing Post, some astute observers did not think he looked as dead-fit for the QEII, so he may well have been given an easy time with the Classic in view. Henry has yet to race beyond a mile, but I think the distance is a lesser issue than the surface. Although Henry has a trademark burst of speed, the way he was staying on well in those mile events suggests that he can go longer, and I suspect that he can handle 1 1/4 miles. Aidan O'Brien has always maintained that Henry would have run in the 1 1/2-mile Derby, if the ground hadn't been dicey. Because of his absolute need for firm going, though, I have no idea if he will feel that he has enough traction on Pro-Ride. More than The Duke, Henry's female line screams turf. On Polytrack, that would probably be a plus, but I'm not so sure if that same idea holds true for the 87 percent-dirt Pro-Ride. RAVEN'S PASS had been getting progressively closer to Henry in each start before finally beating him in the QEII. Fourth in the English Guineas from a problematic draw, he rallied to within three-quarters of a length in the St James's Palace and missed by a head in the Sussex. For the QEII, besides getting an assist from the ground, he also helped himself somewhat by racing a bit closer to the pace. It will be fascinating to see what tactics trainer Gosden and new jockey Dettori have in mind for the Classic. Will he continue the forward strategy, despite the fact that Raven will be stretching out to 1 1/4 miles for the first time? Does he revert to more pronounced rating tactics because of the distance question? It's no clear thing on pedigree whether Raven will stay, but with his female line shoring up his speedy sire, I think he will. Indeed, even last year during his juvenile campaign, Gosden averred that he would ultimately last 10 furlongs. Moreover, Raven will probably enjoy the surface. He is by Elusive Quality, the sire of Smarty Jones and Maryfield; his broodmare sire Lord at War (Arg) was a versatile performer at the very highest level; and while he has plenty of turf influences in his female line, his family has also produced E Dubai (Mr. Prospector), winner of the Suburban H. (G2) and Dwyer S. (G2). Finally, I must mention CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft) because he is Japanese-based, even though he has run more here than he has at home. If anyone doubts that he can be ready for this off a single, effortless allowance race, remember that trainer Kazuo Fujisawa is a genius.
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