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JUSTIN TIME OCTOBER 24, 2008 The Cup Experiment by Justin Dew Please allow me to make a confession. Since the end of this year's Triple Crown, I have paid only minimal attention to the great sport of Thoroughbred horse racing. Now understand that "minimal" is a relative term. Some attention has been paid. But I have not watched every race that ESPN has carried. I have not read every news article. I have not made sure to watch race replays when too busy to flip on TVG or HRTV. I can tell you that a horse named Frost Giant (Giant's Causeway)is now a Grade 1 winner, but I can't tell you, off the top of my head, the names of the leaders of every division. Why? Well, let me begin to answer that with a second confession. Since that frigid, windy day at Belmont Park in 2001 when Tiznow nosed out Sakhee in the Classic (G1) (currently known as the Men's Dirt/Synthetic Classic) I have not recorded a profit on Breeders' Cup Day/Weekend. Why? Well, let me begin to answer that with a third confession, and an explanation of the first confession. My handicapping has gotten worse in recent years. Period. The sad facts about my recent Cup record and my handicapping in general led me to the inescapable conclusion that the doctor ordered a new but potentially temporary approach to this year's Breeders' Cup. So moments after Da' Tara (Tiznow) crossed the wire in the Belmont S. (G1), I stopped following the daily comings and goings of the racing world, hoping that tackling the Breeders' Cup with a fresh mind would help me turn a profit, just like in 1996, 1999, and 2001. 1998 would have been profitable had Swain (Ire) not ended up in the grandstand. And Starine (Fr) ran her best race one year too late for me. I played her big in 2001 (she lost), and her win cost me the tri in 2002. But I digress. My plan for 2008: Ignore racing from June through October, spend no more than five minutes handicapping each Breeders' Cup race, and attempt to turn a profit by betting on one horse across the board in every event. To be honest, I have to admit being unable to totally ignore the road to the Breeders' Cup. I saw several races here and there, and even bet on a few and cashed some nice tickets. But I am able to truthfully report that in just a minute, when taking a gander at the BC past performances for the first time and giving you my instant analysis, most of the horses will be new to me and I will not have any recollection of seeing most of the races since June because I, in fact, didn't see them. It's impossible to guess if this is going to work. But I am sick of leaving the track with an empty wallet after the Classic every year. So I have elected to take this drastic step, chosen to make this sacrifice, opted to pay only partial attention to the sport I love this summer and fall. Let's see how it shakes out. (For the record, I will give my selections as I am reading the PPs, and will not check the morning line odds until after selections are made.) Filly & Mare Sprint -- Being a sucker for class, I like VENTURA (Chester House). (5-1) Juvenile Fillies Turf -- Landed on Garrett Gomez again with SAUCEY EVENING (More Than Ready), and being a fan of Graham Motion didn't hurt. (9-2) Juvenile Fillies (G1) -- Instead of five, this race took me seven minutes to handicap, and I came up with SKY DIVA (Sky Mesa). Maybe she'll get first run on the early leaders, and can get the jump on the closers. (7-2) Filly & Mare Turf (G1) -- Random Question Alert: PURE CLAN (Pure Prize) was sent off as the favorite in the American Oaks Invitational (G1) in July? I'm guessing the field for that race wasn't exceptionally strong. I mean, I like Pure Clan, but there wasn't anyone else? Wow. Hey, good for her. As for this race, I'll take HALFWAY TO HEAVEN (Ire) (Pivotal) since she's from across the pond. (4-1….I swear I'm not trying to pick obvious horses.) Ladies' Classic (G1) -- A win by ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) would make me happy, but let's take a stab at beating her with COCOA BEACH (Chi) (Doneraile Court). (8-1) Marathon -- SIXTIES ICON (GB) (Galileo [Ire]), for lack of a better idea. (2-1) Turf Sprint -- Horses that I bet in the Breeders' Cup having a funny way of losing, only to come back and win the next year when I DON'T bet them. Thus, IDIOT PROOF (Benchmark), my pick in the Sprint (G1) last year, will be my pick this year. Gomez again. (8-1) Dirt Mile -- Don't laugh, but I'm gonna take a wild swing for the fences here with SLEW'S TIZNOW (Tiznow) (not to be confused with stablemate Slew's Tizzy [Tiznow]). (15-1) Mile (G1) -- DAYTONA (Ire) (Indian Ridge) is a Grade 1 winner at 8 and 10 furlongs in the last year. Here's to hoping that he fires his best shot, and he's undefeated on this track. (6-1) Juvenile (G1) -- BUSHRANGER (Ire) (Danetime) is the only multiple Group 1 winner in the field, and nothing else really excites me. (6-1) Juvenile Turf -- I like Mark Frostad so I'll go with GRAND ADVENTURE (Grand Slam). (5-1) Sprint -- I can't believe MIDNIGHT LUTE (Real Quiet) is as bad as his last. He can't be. (7-2) Turf (G1) -- Rather than try to guess which European is going to turn in the best performance here in the States, why not chalk up DANCING FOREVER's (Rahy) last two duds to the surface? Watch out for Shug. (10-1) Classic -- I'll be rooting for CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft) and CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) (Danehill), and otherwise just enjoying what should be a fun race to watch.
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