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PREAKNESS REPORT MAY 14, 2009 by James Scully Post draw -- RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) will have to overcome post 13 to win Saturday's 134th running of the Preakness S. (G1), but the far outside isn't a bad draw for the speedy filly. The other likely front runners -- BIG DRAMA (Montbrook), FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) and PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) -- are well inside of her, and she'll have plenty of time to settle into a perfect position with the long run to the first turn. Installed as the 8-5 favorite on the morning line, Rachel Alexandra will be the last to load and shouldn't be bothered in her outside gate. The most important thing for her will be a clean break. If Rachel Alexandra proves successful, she'll be the first female favorite to win the Preakness since 1906. Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) is the 5-1 second choice on the morning line, but he'll probably be a lower price come post time. The Bob Baffert-trained colt recorded a superb workout on Monday, and he's clearly the second most attractive betting option from post 9. Who goes off the third betting choice is anybody's guess. MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone), Friesan Fire and MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) are all logical candidates, and Big Drama, who is new to the Triple Crown scene, could prove to a wise-guy horse with his early speed. Look for Big Drama to set sail for the lead from his rail post. Controversy -- The other owners don't want her in the race because they know she can win it. Calvin Borel is a scoundrel for jumping off the Kentucky Derby winner to ride a filly. Her new owners are pushing her too hard in a difficult spot. The previous connections never had any intentions of running her back two weeks later. Nobody wants to see a nice filly get ruined by racing against males. Welcome to the Rachel Alexandra saga! New owner Jess Jackson isn't bothered by all the babble; he's a sportsman who wants to win the biggest prizes in horse racing. That's the motivation for the overwhelming majority of high-profile owners in Thoroughbred racing. There will be plenty of backlash if Rachel Alexandra fails, but that doesn't scare Jackson; his filly is good enough to win the middle jewel of the Triple Crown and will be given the opportunity to do so. Borel's choice -- Your sensibilities may be hurt, but Borel must do what's right for him. He's an independent contractor who gets paid for winning races. He may wind up choosing wrong -- critics will have a field day if Mine That Bird out-finishes Rachel Alexandra -- but loyalty and gratitude have no place in the equation. Borel must make the choice that he believes is in the best interest of himself and family. To begrudge him for that is self-serving. New rider -- Mine That Bird will pick up the services of Hall of Famer Mike Smith, who figures to take back as far as he can during the run to the first turn. Borel managed to settle the gelding an amazing distance behind the early leaders in the Derby -- six lengths back of the 18th-place runner entering the clubhouse turn -- but Smith will likely try to keep closer contact with the field during the opening furlongs. He can't count on all of his Preakness rivals being out of gas by the top of the stretch like the rest of the field was in the Derby. Smith is a good fit. He's well-known for his closing skills, partnering with champion late runners Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) and Stardom Bound (Tapit) last season, and is from Roswell, New Mexico, which is the home for Mine That Bird's owners. The Derby winner is also based in New Mexico. Selections -- After tabbing Friesan Fire to win the Derby, I will jump ship. That strategy hurt me with Hansel and Tabasco Cat, but I won't let it affect me because I like the filly. My wagering plan is pretty simple -- a healthy win bet on Rachel Alexandra, and I'll look for a little value in two straight exactas. I'll take her over Big Drama and Papa Clem. Enjoy the Preakness!
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