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CHURCHILL NOTEBOOK MAY 21, 2009 by Frank Cotolo The Memorial Day weekend will be filled with action at Churchill Downs, unaffected by the recent cut in racing days from 52 to 45. Post time for the Thursday-Monday racing is 12:45 p.m. (EDT), except for the special "Friday Happy Hours" program that features a first-race post of 2:45 p.m. Racing will resume next week on Friday. The Holiday Weekend will offer plenty of wagering opportunities, including a pair of enticing, graded stakes: Saturday's Louisville S. (G3) and Monday's Winning Colors S. (G3). Speaking of schedules and positive changes, new lights are being installed in order to accommodate three nighttime programs at Churchill on June 19, June 26 and July 2. If the evening racing is received well, permanent lighting could be coming for future evening cards. Details on those programs will be available in upcoming Notebooks. Track Stats The message surfacing from handicapping last week is this: do not be afraid of speed, even though statistically, off-the-pace runners are producing most winners in routes and sprints. However, the stat is not so pure if you ad winners racing close to the pace. A good number of the 177 races presented so far include horses that but for one of two calls are in the mix of the race early, many we assume must be purposely stalking. The track is, therefore, favoring speed and penalizing it, for the most part, in duels. This adds up to good news for handicappers because the lay of the land, so to speak, is remarkably level. And with horses already beginning to repeat Churchill performances, strong handicapping elements are further supported. The margin of favorites winning through 177 races rose only slightly from 29.6 percent to 30 percent. So without any particular bias surprises or any parade of false favorites, the betting public is in its normal league of productivity. That is good news for value-hunters and accurate personal odds-line makers. The trainer situation is similarly consistent. Steve Asmussen's lead in raw win numbers is based on sending out the most horses thus far (45 through May 17). And Bill Mott's lot is a distant second but not surprisingly strong (he has sent out 26 with six winners, earning him only three points the better than Asmussen in win percentage). Ian Wilkes, as predicted, is going strong. He maintains a 25-percent win clip and a better earning score than the 11 trainers before him in the standings. Forest Kaelin has joined the top-20 list with a 33-percent win average from a dozen leaving the gate. Unlike Wilkes, Kaelin is amassing his numbers in overnight events. Coming Up Saturday's feature, the $100,000 Louisville, is a turf event going 1 1/2 miles for older horses. The Louisville will present a field of nine, including SPICE ROUTE (GB) (King's Best), who exits a win in the Elkhorn S. (G2) at Keeneland. Also entered are ALWAYS FIRST (GB) (Barathea [Ire]), fifth in the Elkhorn; Grade 1 winner BRASS HAT (Prized), who recorded a fast-finishing third in the Elkhorn; GANGBUSTER (Langfuhr), a runaway 10 3/4-length winner of the Fort Harrod S. over Keeneland's Polytrack; MY HAPPINESS (Arg) (Festin [Arg]); SILVER MOUNTAIN (Victory Gallop); THABAZIMBI (Empire Maker); Grade 3 winner and 2008 Louisville runner-up TRANSDUCTION GOLD (Formal Gold); and stakes victor WHY TONTO (Indian Charlie). The Ford Harrod romp from Gangbuster (he paid $34.20), which was his first stakes win, makes the four-year-old Kentucky-bred trained by Keith Desormeaux a firm investment here. His sire has produced a good number of stakes winners and Gangbuster looks to be a tough type with a good shot at improving his stakes credentials. Monday's $100,000 Winning Colors is a six-furlong race for fillies and mares. Stakes Review We warned everyone that trainer Ian Wilkes' stock was going head first into all stakes so far this seasonm, and he did it again with our pick in the $106,900 Matt Winn S. at Churchill last Saturday. The Wilkes-trained CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Rode [Arg]) earned the victory over the favored Cash Refund (Petionville), who was an unbeaten gelding going into this race. "Candyman" stalked Cash Refund until the stretch when the gelding rallied past for a three-quarter length victory under jockey Javier Castellano. The three-year-old covered seven furlongs over the "good" track in 1:22 4/5, and "Candyman" recorded his fourth stakes victory, raising his bankroll to $410,423. HORSES TO WATCH Friday (5/15) 2ND -- CHARLIE TRUMPER (Giant's Causeway) broke badly and was bumped early and then again late. In between he was trying very hard to race, going three wide with the attempt. That is way too much work for 1 1/16 miles in a maiden claimer. 4TH -- SMOKE WARNING (Smoke Glacken) wanted to run very much but was stalled behind a row of horses. Going three wide to make up for lost ground, he raced evenly despite the trouble. 5TH -- TEMPO APPROVED (With Approval) dueled early and boldly for a 29-1 shot. Then the going got tight and he went four wide, salvaging the race with a third-place finish. 7TH -- STAMP (Include) needed this race at Churchill, coming from Oaklawn, and turned in a strong effort, finishing second in what looked like a win in the latter stages. I think he likes this track. Saturday (5/16) 1ST -- ON MY DIME (Mizzen Mast) had early foot and went four wide, losing lots of ground in this 1 1/16-mile test. No wonder he tired badly. Next time, in the clear, he might not settle for change. 5TH -- PATHOKI (Wiseman's Ferry) was 19-1 and rallied six wide in this five-furlong maiden claiming event. That move should be noted. 7TH -- SWEET AND FLAWLESS (Unbridled's Song) was clearly the best of the rest in this chase of a monster on the lead. Watch for this one again in allowance company of if she's dropped into a high-priced claimer. 8TH -- DREAM DATE DIVA (Gulch) showed good early speed and was dueling bravely for a 46-1 shot, a warning for her next sprint. She should break her maiden at Churchill. Sunday (5/17) 3RD -- ALEXANDRITE RING (Century City [Ire]) seemed off in this mile turf test, coming in third while clearly the best of this field. 10TH -- GENTLE EDWIN (Trust N LUck) was very wide early and then wider later while executing a challenge. At one panel less than a mile, this one raced far better than his 43-1 status.
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