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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 7, 2009 by Dick Powell Last Saturday's Diana S. (G1) for older fillies and mares on the turf demonstrated the difference between the inner and Mellon turf courses at Saratoga. In the recent past, the Diana was run on the inner turf course. As we discussed last week, the inner turf course favors inside posts and horses with tactical speed who can overcome the tight turns. The Mellon turf course with its wider, sweeping turns enables horses to commence sustained rallies farther off the hedge without losing their momentum. In the Diana, last year's female turf champion, FOREVER TOGETHER (Belong to Me), made a wide move turning for home on the Mellon turf course and went after Carribean Sunset (Ire) (Danehill Dancer), who had opened up a clear lead with a furlong to go. If the Diana was run on the inner turf course, I say Carribean Sunset holds on since Forever Together would have had to regain momentum after making her wide move around the turn. Instead, she was able to get up in time and win the Diana for the second year in a row. Monday's racecard was run over one of the fastest main tracks ever seen at Saratoga. In the 6TH race, the Fleet Indian S. sending New York-bred fillies and mares seven furlongs on the main track, DANCE GAL DANCE (Disco Rico) went gate-to-wire going the first six furlongs in 1:08.59 leading to a final time of 1:21.71. The 8TH race was the Amsterdam S. (G2) for three-year-olds going six furlongs on the main track. As expected, it was won by near 4-5 favorite QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality), who was making his first start since being switched from James Jerkens to Todd Pletcher. Stumbling a bit at the start, Quality Road lagged behind the early pace set by Everyday Heroes (Awesome Again) and Custom for Carlos (More than Ready). The first quarter was run in a pokey :22.45 and the half went in :44.55. I use the term "pokey' for the first quarter since 6 1/2-furlong sprints on the main track start where the backstretch chute meets the clubhouse turn. The starting gate is usually moved back more than usual, and with the long run-up to the timing pole we usually see first quarters in these races run way under :22. Quality Road raced five wide around the far turn and took off after the leaders. He charged down the middle of the track to seize command and draw off to a 2 1/4-length victory over Capt. Candyman Can (Candy Ride [Arg]). With a sixteenth of a mile to go, he stopped the teletimer in 1:07.22 and his final time of 1:13.74 shattered the previous track record. Probably the ultimate proof of how fast Monday's track was playing was the last race of the day. The 10TH was a maiden claimer ($20,000 price tags) for three-year-olds and up going six furlongs. TRI POLAR (Newfoundland), the 44-1 longshot, raced on the lead throughout, repelled a challenge by Cleric (Vicar) in the deep stretch and held on by a head. The over/under for this class of horses running six furlongs on the main track at Saratoga is around 1:12 flat. On Monday, Tri Polar stopped the teletimer in 1:09.72. The primary reason for Monday's hard, fast track was the deluge that hit the Northeast on Sunday. Monmouth Park was hit especially hard and the Haskell Invitational (G1) was run on a sealed, sloppy track. As expected, Johnny Velazquez sent Munnings (Speightstown) to the front. Not expected was Kent Desormeaux sending Belmont S. (G1) winner Summer Bird (Birdstone) up on the inside to challenge Munnings for the early lead. Calvin Borel broke RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) alertly and took up position three wide, willing to lose ground but also avoiding the leader's spray. Munnings ran the first quarter in :22.99 but when Velazquez tried to give him a breather, Desormeaux was riding Summer Bird hard to maintain the pressure. They covered the first half in :46.43 and six furlongs in a very quick 1:09.92 as Borel began to inch closer three wide aboard Rachel Alexandra. As quickly as it looked that this was going to be a battle to the wire, that's as quickly as the Haskell was over. Rachel Alexandra burst in front midway around the turn and kept widening her margin through the stretch. Forget the rest and the only drama was how far she was going to win by. The answer was six lengths as Borel stayed busy on her until the final strides before the wire. Rachel Alexandra's final time for the 1 1/8 miles was 1:47.21 and she earned a BRIS Speed rating of 116. It was her best performance so far. Here's what I am worried about: This is the second race in a row that she raced over a very hard racetrack. The Belmont racing strip for the Mother Goose S. (G1) was hard as a rock and Sunday's sealed track at Monmouth was as well. There's wear and tear on a horse's joints when they are running on such jarring surfaces, which eventually catches up to them and shortens their careers. Owner Jess Jackson is adamant about not running on the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup. Yes, Mr. Jackson is entitled to run his superstar filly anywhere he wants but I think that his decision is based upon two false assumptions. The first is what happened to CURLIN (Smart Strike) in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Santa Anita. He blames the loss on Pro-Ride but I blame it on the end of a long run with too many races run on hard surfaces. First he tried the turf with Curlin and the course at Belmont came up rock hard. Then he stayed in New York for the rest of the year and raced on a sealed, wet track while winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in less than impressive fashion. In my opinion, Curlin went to the Classic a tired, physically worn-out horse who was ripe for the picking. I predicted it in my Breeders' Cup preview column. When Curlin was making a gigantic, six-wide move around the far turn to catch the leaders did anyone think at that point he was not handling the Pro-Ride? It was only after he tired in the stretch that the knives came out. To apply Curlin's Pro-Ride experience to Rachel Alexandra is a gigantic mistake. Curlin was a big horse that pounded the ground. Rachel is a big filly that glides over the ground. She has already shown that she will run over anything. The second false assumption is thinking that she will not run well over the Pro-Ride or that Jackson is putting her at risk by doing so. Calvin Borel has said that she was awesome when she won her allowance race at Keeneland over Polytrack, so she already has winning experience running on a synthetic surface. And I would have been far more nervous about running Rachel at Monmouth on Sunday after Tale of Victory (Tale of the Cat) broke down in the 5TH race than running her at Santa Anita over Pro-Ride. Let's hope we see Rachel at Saratoga before a big crowd and give them what they want with another dominating victory. And let's hope that somewhere along the line Jackson changes his mind and runs in one of the Breeders' Cup races -- either against ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) in the Ladies' Classic (G1) or against the best the world has to offer in the Classic.
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