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CLASSIC DIARY SEPTEMBER 24, 2009 by James Scully The Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) picture isn't clear at the top. The status of probable Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) is settled -- she won't be running due to the synthetic track -- but we'll have to wait and see about several other leading contenders. The nation's leading three-year-old male, SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone), is an uncertainty. Winner of the Belmont (G1) and Travers (G1), Summer Bird reportedly didn't train well over the Pro-Ride when based at Santa Anita last year. While he can wrap up a divisional championship in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park on October 3, his connections aren't counting out a Classic bid and will have reason to consider the trip if he loses the Gold Cup to QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Road), who still has an outside chance at championship honors. Quality Road has no experience over a synthetic track and doesn't need to ship if he drops the Gold Cup, but the landscape changes if the top-class sophomore rebounds from his Travers setback. The superb mare ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) will compete for favoritism if she makes her first start against males in the November 7 event, but she could easily wind up in the Ladies' Classic (G1) the day before. A final decision won't be made until after the Lady's Secret S. (G1) on October 10, but given the cautious and unimaginative stewardship from her connections so far this season, her Classic chances are 50-50 at best. Barring a setback in the Lady's Secret, Zenyatta deserves the chance to make history (no distaffer has won the Classic). Bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance, she's as good as the males in Southern California and loves the Pro-Ride, winning the 2008 runnings of the Ladies' Classic and Lady's Secret in spectacular fashion. Her presence would give the Classic a real boost in star quality. American racing fans would love to see European superstar SEA THE STARS (Cape Cross [Ire]) in Arcadia, California. Five-for-five this season, with victories in the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1), Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), Juddmonte International S. (Eng-G1) and Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1), Sea the Stars is being pointed toward Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) on October 4, which figures to be his swan song if he makes the starting gate at Longchamp. However, his participation is totally dependant on weather -- the three-year-old can't handle deep ground -- and trainer John Oxx has mentioned the Classic as a viable alternative. Let it rain in France! The Classic is an enticing option for America's best turf horse, GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat). Winner of four straight Grade 1s on the sod, including a decisive victory in the Arlington Million (G1) most recently, Gio Ponti is experienced on the Pro-Ride, capturing the Sir Beaufort S. (G3) last December, and the Classic distance is a better fit for the colt than either of the Breeders' Cup turf events. His connections will select a Breeders' Cup race after the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) on October 3. We'll need to wait a few weeks to find out if any of these stars will be running in the 26th edition of the Classic. California preps: The September 6 Pacific Classic (G1) was the most important prep race so far this year in California. RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid), who earned his first graded stakes victory with a 24-1 upset, still has much to prove, and we'll focus upon four Classic contenders who finished behind him. EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) performed well over the Polytrack at Del Mar, finishing second by a neck in the Pacific Classic, but his best race this season came over the Pro-Ride when he powered home to an impressive one-length score in the Santa Anita H. (G1) last March. Trained by Helen Pitts-Blasi, the seven-year-old horse registered a 101 BRIS Speed rating that afternoon, and the stalker looms as a serious Classic threat going forward. RAIL TRIP (Jump Start) turned in his second consecutive strong showing at 1 1/4 miles in the Pacific Classic, finishing third by a length, and the improving gelding is three-for-three at Santa Anita. He delivered a superb performance in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) two starts back, drawing clear to a three-length decision, and can be placed anywhere with his tactical speed. The late-blooming Ron Ellis pupil didn't make his career debut until last November, and Rail Trip looks like a very live Classic prospect. COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) came up short in fifth following a rough trip in the Pacific Classic, but the multiple Grade 1 winner was making only his second start of the season. We loved his first start, a sharp one-mile score on the turf in late July, and the Eoin Harty runner shouldn't be dismissed off his last setback. He's expected to prep for the Classic in the Goodwood S. (G1) on October 10. PARADING (Pulpit) wound up one spot ahead in fourth, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths, but there are some class concerns going forward. He's failed to hit the board in two forays out west for Shug McGaughey, faltering in fifth as the favorite in the Hollywood Gold Cup, but I wouldn't give up completely on him. An outstanding 7 1/2-length winner of the Ben Ali S. (G3) on Polytrack earlier this year, Parading has shipped back and forth from New York for his last two starts, but his connections are keeping him in Southern California now to prepare for his upcoming engagements. The five-year-old needs an encouraging effort in the Goodwood. Richard's Kid, who was transferred to Bob Baffert three starts back, has found a home on synthetics, recording two big efforts at Del Mar, but he must prove that he can transfer his form from Polytrack to the Pro-Ride. 2008 Classic third-placer TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) opened his five-year-old campaign with a third in the San Antonio H. (G2) in early February, but the John Shirreffs-conditioned horse wasn't seen again under silks until the August 26 Harry F. Brubaker S. on grass. The five-year-old didn't fire in that spot, trailing the field in sixth, but he needed the activity. He figures to be fitter for the Goodwood, and the multiple Grade 1 hero always merits consideration for at least a minor award with his late kick. Tiago remains a serious question mark going forward, but he may still have something left in the tank if his feet don't bother him. With the retirement of Pioneerof the Nile, the three-year-old colony in California was rendered meaningless in terms of the Classic, but MISREMEMBERED (Candy Ride [Arg]) is one to watch for down the road. The April maiden winner recorded his first stakes win in the 1 1/8-mile Swaps S. (G2) on July 18, drawing off sharply to a 1 3/4-length decision, and while he failed to challenge when stepping up in the Pacific Classic, he's still a promising prospect for Baffert. The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) is a possible target. New York preps: Woodward (G1) runner-up MACHO AGAIN (Macho Uno) gave Rachel Alexandra a run for the money before coming up a head short, and the gray is enjoying an excellent four-year-old season, winning the Stephen Foster H. (G1) and New Orleans H. (G2) as well as a second in the Whitney H. (G1), with triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings in his last three outings. The Dallas Stewart colt will ship west for the Classic following his next start in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he's a big question on synthetic. Macho Again is unplaced in two previous attempts on such surfaces. BULLSBAY (Tiznow) has really come on for Graham Motion this summer. Winner of the Alysheba S. (G3) on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) undercard, the five-year-old horse missed in his next two starts at the Grade 1 level before registering a 18-1 upset in the August 8 Whitney, displaying a dynamic turn of foot to run down Commentator (Distorted Humor) on the far turn and carrying his momentum to the wire. He offered another solid move in the Woodward before settling for third, and the Classic is definitely an option for his connections. However, Bullsbay is probably better suited for dirt, finishing a dismal 10th when making his last synthetic start in the Hollywood Gold Cup. The August 29 Travers proved disappointing for Quality Road, who was stuck down on the rail most of the way and came up short in third as the 3-2 favorite, but he's eligible to improve significantly if his feet don't bother him. With only a 6 1/2-furlong sprint under him since March, the Florida Derby (G1) winner lacked fitness for 1 1/4 miles, but that won't be the case next time. Summer Bird will be a formidable opponent, but don't be surprised to see Quality Road bounce back in the Gold Cup. HOLD ME BACK (Giant's Causeway) was overlooked as the 17-1 longest shot in the Travers, but the Bill Mott-trained colt offered a stout rally from last for second. The versatile sophomore was already proven on synthetic surfaces, with a win in the Lane's End S. (G2) and a second in the Blue Grass (G1) to his credit, and he'll prep for his Classic engagement in Saturday's Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) at Turfway Park. The improving colt is an intriguing darkhorse. MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled's Song) returned to the races in good form on September 18, winning a 6 1/2-furlong allowance/optional claiming event at Belmont, and the champion two-year-old colt is an exciting Classic prospect for Godolphin. He'll be rushed to make it seven weeks later, but it's very possible. The Saeed bin Suroor trainee tracked the pace before quickly drawing off at the top of the stretch, drifting out late en route to a 3 1/4-length margin, and he squared off against a solid group of rivals last time. I've always thought he would relish longer distances with his stride and would love to see him show up in the Goodwood, which should provide a good tightener for 10 furlongs. The chestnut colt showed his affinity for the Pro-Ride with a magnificent victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and Midshipman is back. Midwest preps: REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) is another one to watch from the mighty Godolphin stable following his comeback win in the September 26 Super Derby (G2). The colt established himself as a Kentucky Derby (G1) contender with his victory in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) but went to the sidelines following his eight-place effort at Churchill. He returned to the races in front-running fashion, establishing moderate splits en route to a comfortable 1 1/4-length score, and the future looks bright for the dark bay. However, Regal Ransom ran poorly last year when trying the Pro-Ride in the Norfolk S. (G1) and will likely point toward major events in New York this fall. Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) missed the Travers due to surgery for an entrapped epiglotis and is training in New Mexico for his return to Southern California. Second in the Preakness (G1) and third in the Belmont, the Chip Woolley-trained gelding was last seen finishing third in the West Virginia Derby (G2). He ran well over Polytrack last year in Canada, recording three stakes victories, including the Grey S. (Can-G3), but was never a factor on Pro-Ride when last in the Juvenile. Jockey Calvin Borel has signed back on for the next couple of starts, and Mine That Bird will look to invigorate his Classic hopes with a solid showing in the Goodwood. Euros: International invaders ran well over the dirt in previous Classics, with Sakhee (2001) and Giant's Causeway (2000) each recording a close second, but the European horses really took to the main track at Santa Anita last year as Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator finished one-two. The Pro-Ride plays friendly toward classy grass horses, and Coolmore's Aidan O'Brien, who sent out both Giant's Causeway and Henrythenavigator, will be back at Santa Anita with a strong hand. Multiple Group 1 winners MASTERSCRAFTSMAN (Danehill Dancer) and RIP VAN WINKLE (Galileo [Ire]) are the top Classic prospects in his stable. Upcoming: We'll review the Goodwood and Jockey Club Gold Cup next time.
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