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KEENELAND NOTEBOOK OCTOBER 15, 2009 by Frank Cotolo Keeneland's 2009 season began with 30 races over three programs, with a lot of stakes activity and a lot of Breeders' Cup talk along with the high-profile racing. If you read our preview article, you may have done well enough with the feature races. We chose DIAMONDRELLA (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]), who paid $7.20 and we gave you two exactas: INFORMED DECISION (Monarchos) to CARLSBAD (Cactus Ridge), which paid $8.80, and SILVER TIMBER (Prime Timber) to MR NIGHTLINGER (Indian Charlie), which paid $18.20. Our Horses-to-Watch list below may produce winners that do not race again during this brief meet. Still, follow our suggestion; that is, give each horse two chances to come back and win regardless of where that horse races. This has been the key to our successful horses-to-watch lists through my various track notebooks. As Keeneland launched its autumn meet, Polytrack was favorable to horses shipping from other tracks with synthetic surfaces. With only 30 races in the books, horses from Arlington races won eight. Horses from Presque Isle won five. That is a 43-percent rate of victory for horses going from synthetic to synthetic. No matter how you spin that stat, it looks strong when put against a 20-percent win rate for favorites with no distinction for where they raced last out. The only dirt track providing winners of any consequence shows that class certainly has a lot to do with winning horses no matter the surface. Saratoga shippers have done well, scoring five winners. Trainers Ken McPeek was the most successful trainer in the first three programs, with three winners. Jonathan Sheppard and George Arnold followed him with a pair each. If you read our preview, you know that Sheppard scored at 56 percent at the previous Keeneland meet with only nine starters. Arnold was third on the win-percentage list at 25 percent. McPeek was not in the top six. Watch for first-time starters coming under the tutelage of Christophe Clement or Ralph Nicks. Both of them scored in the first three days with new students. Their products deserve some attention before an obvious trend continues. HORSES TO WATCH Friday (10/9) 2ND -- CITIZEN JOHN (Proud Citizen) made a strong move to get to the lead early in this 1 1/8-mile journey and stayed second after being overcome, tiring late. 3RD -- LIZA LU (Menifee) looked good on paper, especially off a performance on Arlington's surface, but was not up to it. Call this a clunker, take another shot. 5TH -- HARKEN UP (Empire Maker) laid low for a bit and then made a five-wide move to challenge, looking good enough to give another shot. Saturday (10/10) 1ST -- DUMBLEDORE (Prospect Bay) was four wide on the second turn, making a strong run before tiring from the effort. 3RD -- SWEET LEMON CHELLO (Lemon Drop Kid) started badly, drifting and losing ground, then started up again to look very much in stride at 7-1. Sunday (10/11) 2ND -- WIND ON THE HILL (Hotoffthepress) began from the 10 post and was all out early at 13-1, staying well in the stretch and begging for another shot. 3RD -- VOUSSOIR (Arch) was a very good first-time starter, liking the surface, and at 8-1 finished third while three wide. 5TH -- SUN VALLEY STORM (Stormy Atlantic) adored this surface, let go at 63-1, stalking three wide and still driving while being pushed five wide.
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