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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 23, 2009 by Dick Powell Saturday's $350,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool at Belmont Park once again failed to hit the minimum, and anyone who has followed my advice on seeking these situations was handsomely rewarded. With rainy weather, all the races off the turf and the stakes race shifted to Wednesday, the Belmont Pick 4 pool was only $196,087. NYRA had to seed the pool with $113,895 ($153,913 minus 26 percent takeout) to meet the guarantee which far outweighs the $50,982 based on a 26 percent takeout rate. So unlike the situation that arose a few weeks ago where the effective takeout was around 13 percent because the guarantee was not hit, this time you actually entered the beautiful world of negative takeout. All this resulted in a Pick 4 that saw its winners pay $3.90; $10.20; $6.70 and $4.90 pay $391. *** Usually the smart money is the late money, but in Keeneland's 8TH race on Saturday, the smart money showed up real early. CONNIE AND MICHAEL (Roman Ruler) was a first-time starter trained by Ken McPeek that was 12-1 on the morning line. I had marked her down the previous night based on McPeek's success with firsters, and her first-crop sire's 19 juvenile winners. After the 7TH race was official, the first odds were posted and I couldn't believe my eyes when Connie and Michael opened up at 6-5! She was facing a field of juvenile fillies that included a $1 million yearling purchase, Cast Call, which was by A.P. Indy out of Grade 1 winner Shadow Cast (Smart Strike), and Elarose (Storm Cat) that was out of multiple Grade 1-winning mare Take Charge Lady (Dehere). Connie and Michael drifted some in the betting but was still only 5-2 at post time. It was a bargain. The gate opened and Kent Desormeaux broke her on top from post 12 and opened up a clear lead down the backstretch. She had a two-length lead after a first quarter in :22.69 and a three-length lead after a first half in :45.49. Star Recruit (Aldebaran) was the only one able to give chase but it was futile as Connie and Michael turned for home and widened her lead with a final margin of 7 3/4 lengths while stopping the teletimer in 1:22.74. The other juvenile filly race going seven furlongs earlier in the day went in 1:24.82. Owned by the Brooklyn Boyz Stable, it seemed like all of them were in the winner's circle which might explain the early money that showed. Where she goes next is anyone's guess, but she is a serious juvenile filly that should be able to stretch out to two turns. *** On Sunday, Eoin Harty sent out AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) to an equally impressive victory in a seven-furlong juvenile male race. Under Julien Leparoux, he broke well, settled nicely, made a big move around the far turn to take the lead and drew off to a 6 3/4-length victory in 1:22.22 in his second career start. Being by Tiznow, who is becoming a strong stamina influence in American pedigrees, and with his second dam being a multiple graded stakes-winning mare that won the Oak Leaf S. (G1) at two, American Lion should also be able to stretch out very nicely. *** If you were expecting a Breeders' Cup preview in this space this week, you are way too early. I've never had any success by handicapping early and until the fields shape up and post positions are drawn, I won't have any strong opinions. One trend I do feel strong about is I think that Aidan O'Brien will be the dominant story at this year's Breeders' Cup. Last year, O'Brien was close to having a memorable weekend. Heart Shaped (Storm Cat) missed by a nose in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Westphalia (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) was a good second to DONATIVUM (GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) in the Juvenile Turf. Soldier of Fortune (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) was only beaten about four lengths in fourth place when Johnny Murtagh inexplicably chased his own rabbit that set a blistering pace in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1). And in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), the O'Brien-trained Henrythenavigator rallied strongly to be second. Last year's Breeders' Cup was a frustrating weekend but one that Team Ballydoyle was sure to learn from. Yes, Godolphin/Darley will be tough again like they were last year, but I'm looking for their Irish rivals led by O'Brien to have a great weekend. Either by plan or circumstance, the O'Brien stable seems to be pointed for this year's Breeders' Cup more than in the past. Some of his stars, RIP VAN WINKLE (Galileo [Ire]) for instance, are coming into the Breeders' Cup much more lightly raced than many of O'Brien's previous stars. Instead of sending a group of horses that have fired their best shots over in Europe, it looks like O'Brien has saved plenty of ammunition.
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