|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS DECEMBER 31, 2009 by Dick Powell Last year I was a big fan of Pioneerof the Nile and loved him in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The Bob Baffert-trainee won the CashCall Futurity (G1) by a nose and went on to win all three Derby prep races. In the Run for the Roses, he went off as the third choice at 6-1 and beat everyone he needed to beat but 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird (Birdstone). This year, Bob Baffert is back with a similar classic contender in LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) who won the CashCall Futurity last week at Hollywood Park and clinched a divisional title for juvenile males. Winner of his first four starts, he just missed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) when breaking from post 13, then came back to win the Futurity in a game effort as the 3-10 favorite. But for some reason, as professional as Lookin at Lucky has been, I don't sense that there is much more upside for him. He came to hand quickly breaking his maiden on July 11 and has been in serious training ever since. Baffert tipped his hand after the Futurity by saying that he would only have two starts next year to get ready for the Derby which indicates to me that he "squeezed the lemon" pretty hard this year. Interestingly, he said that one of the two races would probably be on dirt. Many jumped on this statement as him admitting he made a mistake with Pioneerof the Nile last year by not racing him on dirt until the Derby, but based on his effort I don't see how that could be true. On a sealed, greasy track, Pioneerof the Nile ran a terrific race, and were it not for a death-defying ride by Calvin Borel on Mine that Bird, it would have been him adorned with the blanket of roses. I would guess that Baffert would target the Wood Memorial S. (G1) at Aqueduct as his final Derby prep race, a path that he took previously with Congaree and Bob and John. One reason that I am discounting Lookin at Lucky's Derby chances is how slow he ran compared to the rest of the horses that ran on Hollywood Park's main track that day. There were split divisions of a maiden special weight for juvenile males that went in 1:08.98 and 1:08.91. The Stuka S. for juveniles at 6 1/2 furlongs went in a quick 1:14.56 with a six-furlong split of 1:08.41, and there were other equally fast races on the undercard. So, when Lookin at Lucky took 1:43.30 to complete the 1 1/16 mile Futurity and only earned a BRIS Speed Rating of 90, it sticks out like a sore thumb. It was the slowest Futurity since Stephen's Odyssey won it in 1984 in 1:43.40. Somehow, I just don't see a lot of upside for him in next year's classics. One horse that I think has a big upside is TIZ CHROME (Tiznow), winner of the aforementioned Stuka. A winner of his career debut at Churchill Downs on November 1 at six furlongs when trained by Allen Crupper. Privately purchased by Mercedes Stable and the Lanni Family Trust following that win, he romped in the Stuka for Baffert by four lengths with Garrett Gomez in the irons. Incredibly, Tiz Chrome could not be sold at last year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale when his highest bid was $9,000. Bought back by his breeder, Whispering Hill Farm, he is by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Tiznow out of a Woodman mare that is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Designed for Luck. Whispering Hill Farm most likely made a healthy profit when they sold him after his maiden win and now he's worth even more with a win that was equally impressive quantitatively and qualitatively. Speaking of Baffert, for years his go-to rider in Southern California was Garrett Gomez. And he still is, but Martin Garcia is getting a lot of business from the Baffert barn and making the most of it. According to the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, Garcia is winning at a 41 percent clip (17 for 41) when riding for Baffert with a healthy flat-bet profit in the last 60 days.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
