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TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
After a one-year hiatus, the Tropical Park Derby (G3) will kick off the New Year at Calder, and the 1 1/8-mile turf affair has proven to be a launching pad for some talented three-year-olds in recent years. Kentucky Derby (G1) hero Barbaro, champion Kitten's Joy and multiple Grade 2-winning millionaire Cowboy Cal are among the luminaries who have graced the Tropical Park Derby winner's circle in the last five runnings. The horse to beat is LOST APTITUDE (Aptitude). After breaking his maiden in his second career start at Kentucky Downs, the bay colt recorded a solid third in a Keeneland allowance, striking the front at the top of the stretch before weakening slightly to finish third, beaten only a length, by CAT PARK (Tale of the Cat). Lost Aptitude followed that narrow setback with a runaway allowance score at Churchill Downs and then crushed his rivals, including Cat Park, in the November 28 Grand Canyon H., leading wire to wire for a 5 1/4-length victory that garnered him a career-best 96 BRIS Speed rating. Trainer Dale Romans' two-year-olds have been firing on all cylinders over the last couple of months, and we'll look for Lost Aptitude to carry that momentum forward on Friday. He could lead all the way or sit just off of it before striking. SUNRISE NURSERY (Roman Ruler) didn't look like a stakes-quality colt when competing in maiden-claiming races on the dirt in his first four starts, but his connections wisely transferred him to turf last time and the chestnut responded with an impressive allowance tally, overcoming a stumbling start and some traffic trouble at the head of the stretch to win going away by three parts of a length. It's no surprise that he's much better on grass -- this is the female family of noted turf performers Ten Below, Fortnightly, Moments of Magic and Zann -- and his BRIS Speed rating (87) was significantly better than his dirt efforts. Trainer Jose Pinchin is always strong at Calder (20 percent win rate) and Rajiv Maragh is an underrated turf jockey. Sunrise Nursery is eligible to keep showing more off his encouraging victory last time and looms as a possible upsetter if our top choice falters. After finishing strongly in his allowance score at Keeneland, Cat Park turned in a one-paced effort in the Grand Canyon and wound up settling for third, seven lengths back of the winner. Conditioner Graham Motion makes a positive jockey switch in this spot to Julien Leparoux, one of the premiere turf riders in North America, and we expect to see the chestnut colt settle more in the early stages before offering a late run here. Cat Park rates as a top contender based on his BRIS numbers, and we won't be surprised to see him rally for the win. OUR CHAMPION (Value Plus) is a potential top three player for trainer David Braddy. His allowance victory last time didn't rate as highly as the allowance score by Sunrise Nursery, but the bay colt still got the job done from off the pace, rallying wide off the far turn to win by a hard-fought neck. A half-brother to Grade 2 turf queen Onceinabluemamoon, herself the dam of listed grass winner One Union, Our Champion owns BRIS Late Pace numbers of 111 and 95 in his recent starts, and he's got the potential to develop into a very legitimate turf performer in his own right. We'll use him on the bottom of our tickets. TRIPPO (Trippi) is an intriguing entrant. Trained by Frank Alexander, the chestnut colt broke his maiden in good fashion two starts back at Aqueduct, winning a 1 1/16-mile turf event by 2 1/4 lengths, and finished a respectable second versus allowance rivals last time at the Big A after being jostled and bumped around severely in the stretch. His BRIS Speed and Late Pace numbers for those efforts are strong, and Trippo appears to own plenty of potential going forward on the turf. However, he is stuck in post 11, and outside posts have performed terribly in turf routes at Calder. He still merits serious consideration for a minor award. GATOR TIGER (Tiger Ridge) exits a pair of solid efforts over the grass at Calder, missing by a neck last time to Our Champion, and might be a pace factor on Friday from the rail. The Joseph Catanese trainee has recorded a pair of bullet works in preparation for this start and could continue to show more for his connections, so he's another one to consider for the bottom of the exotics. BECKY'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy) is eligible to outperform our expectations, but we'll take a stand against him in this spot. The Wesley Ward runner broke his maiden over a solid group of rivals in a Saratoga turf affair and followed it with a good second in the Summer S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2), the dark bay colt was in position to offer a challenge before faltering in the stretch, eventually finishing ninth in the 12-horse field. He reportedly bled through Lasix last time, and Leparoux, who had been aboard for his last three starts, gets off the Kentucky-bred to ride Cat Park. Another drawback is post 12. Becky's Kitten is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line and looks vulnerable to us at potential short odds. After recording a pair of easy victories over maiden and allowance rivals on the main track, FLY BY PHIL (Act of Duty) will make his turf debut for Kathleen O'Connell. The dark bay gelding owns a decent turf pedigree on his dam's side, but we're inclined to give him a race on the sod in this difficult spot. BERNIE THE MAESTRO (Bernstein) does his best running on or close to the pace, but we can't envision him sustaining his speed the entire trip. THREE DEADLY SINS (Repent) and FORTY NINE ACRES (West Acre) both probably need an easier spot to be effective. Maiden KING PRADA (El Prado [Ire]) looks overmatched.
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