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THOROUGHBRED BEAT JANUARY 8, 2009 by James Scully Some observations for the New Year: Rachel Show: RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) hasn't returned to serious training yet, but speculation about her four-year-old season will pick up at the Eclipse Awards on January 18 when she receives, in all likelihood, Horse of the Year honors. The focus then shifts to the possibilities ahead, with the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) in early November as the main goal, and her 2010 campaign promises to be quite a production if she remains healthy. Rachel Alexandra can run against males or females, at any venue with a dirt oval, and her connections probably won't take a conservative approach like the one employed by Zenyatta, who started only four times last year prior to the Breeders' Cup. Owners Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick, along with trainer Steve Asmussen and assistant Scott Blasi, will likely contemplate every option as they plot Rachel Alexandra's journey on a race-by-race basis. We witnessed the hoopla surrounding the process at the end of her three-year-old season last summer. Following her six-length dismissal of Belmont (G1) winner (and probable three-year-old champion) Summer Bird (Birdstone) in the Haskell Invitational (G1) on August 2, five races emerged in the following days as options for her next start: Alabama (G1), Travers (G1), Personal Ensign (G1), Woodward (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G2). The first four appeared viable, but the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Philadelphia Park? However, Jackson listed it as a possible destination for the seemingly unstoppable filly, and the racing world was forced to wait a couple of weeks, debating possible targets along the way, for the press conference to announce her next start. It will be more of the same in 2010, but the sideshow doesn't detract from the main event. Most Thoroughbred racing fans have never witnessed a three-year-old filly of Rachel Alexandra's caliber, and it will be fascinating to see whether she raises the ceiling higher this year. Her BRIS Speed ratings are exceptional so far, on par with many Horse of the Year winners of the decade, with her best figure (116) coming in the Haskell.
What can we expect from her in 2010? If she's better at four (as many of us are expecting), Rachel Alexandra will set new standards. Her BRIS Speed ratings should be in the 120+ range, and those numbers will serve as another testament to her greatness. Get ready for the drama surrounding the "Rachel Show" in 2010. Lets hope it runs all season because Thoroughbred racing is fortunate to have such terrific programming. Derby Watch: Winter racing is in full swing at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Fair Grounds, with Oaklawn Park set to join the mix next week, and this is the time of year to keep your eye on the maiden and allowance ranks for any interesting three-year-olds. It's possible that we haven't even seen the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner yet (an unraced juvenile will likely break through one of these years), but that's not the purpose of this column. Here are six Derby prospects from last season: LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) -- Winner of the CashCall Futurity (G1), Norfolk (G1), Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Best Pal (G2), the nation's best two-year-old suffered his only setback, a head second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), following a wide and troubled trip from post 13. Lookin at Lucky doesn't win by large margins, but always appears to have more in reserve while netting BRIS Late Pace ratings as high as 121. He's raced strictly on synthetics, but the bay colt is bred to excel on the main track at 10 furlongs and trainer Bob Baffert plans to prep him over a conventional track to prepare for the footing, as well as the kickback, in the Kentucky Derby. Lookin at Lucky is the early favorite. JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) -- Florida-bred swept the Florida Stallion Stakes series, winning the six-furlong Dr. Fager, seven-furlong Affirmed and 1 1/16-mile In Reality in authoritative fashion, and was sold and transferred to Nick Zito following those scintillating performances. His BRIS Speed and Late Pace numbers are outstanding, and the chestnut colt was flattered when D' Funnybone (D'wildcat), who he defeated last summer, romped in the Saratoga Special (G2) and Futurity S. (G2) in his subsequent starts. Jackson Bend owns a solid pedigree for longer distances (dam is by Preakness [G1] and Belmont winner Tabasco Cat) and the right connections to develop into top Derby contender. He's recorded a couple of fast works in preparation for his three-year-old bow and looks like a potential star in South Florida this winter/spring. BUDDY'S SAINT (Saint Liam) -- From the lone, abbreviated crop of the ill-fated Saint Liam, Buddy's Saint has utilized an impressive turn of foot to finish first in all three starts (disqualified from career debut). He officially broke his maiden with a 12-length runaway in the Nashua S. (G2), registering a 105 BRIS Speed rating, and followed with a professional, 4 3/4-length score in the Remsen S. (G2) that stamped him as a top Derby prospect for Bruce Levine. His trainer has never had a Derby starter, but first-timers Chip Woolley (Mine That Bird), Richard Dutrow (Big Brown), Michael Matz (Barbaro) and John Servis (Smarty Jones) all scored last decade. SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) -- He came on strong the end of his juvenile season, recording a sharp five-length score in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), and the front runner has the pedigree to relish 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs. Love the fact that he earned a 100 BRIS Speed rating at two, but hope his connections don't take a conservative approach with only two preps for the lightly-raced colt. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who is still seeking his first Derby winner, has a prime candidate in Super Saver. DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft) -- A 6 1/4-length maiden scorer at Saratoga, Stanley Hough colt concluded last year with runner-up finishes in the Futurity and Champagne (G1). Out of Alabama (G1) winner Pretty Discreet and a half-brother to to Grade 1-winning millionaire Discreet Cat, Discreetly Mine rates an A in the pedigree department, and the bay colt has shown glimpses of his overwhelming potential. He's eligible to take giant strides forward this year. TAKE CONTROL (A.P. Indy) -- Maiden winner is still a darkhorse, but he will add a lot to the Derby chase if he develops into a legitimate contender. The first foal out of Horse of the Year Azeri, the chestnut colt rated off a slow pace and exhibited signs of greenness in the stretch when making his career debut in a two-turn maiden special weight event at Santa Anita on December 30, but he got the job done in commendable fashion, striding out powerfully late to record a 1 1/2-length decision. Take Control's career is off to a very encouraging start, and he's got three-time Derby winner Baffert in his corner. Oaks Watch: The Kentucky Oaks (G1) doesn't match the Derby in terms of importance, but it's still the premiere event for three-year-old fillies in North America. Here are my top five prospects: DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon) -- Draw a line through her last-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and focus upon her first two career starts. After breaking slowly in her debut, the bay miss rapidly advanced to the front and drew off smartly for a 4 3/4-length decision in the slop at Saratoga. She jumped to stakes company, stretching out to a mile in the Frizette (G1), and missed the break again with a stumbling start at Belmont Park, but Devil May Care recovered and rallied smartly from just off the pace to win by a head that afternoon, notching a stellar 100 BRIS Speed rating. The bay miss is capable of bigger and better things on the dirt this year for Pletcher. Considering how poorly her half-brother, multiple Grade 2-winning millionaire Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor), ran on synthetics at two in the Norfolk, it was no surprise to see Devil May Care throw in a clunker on Pro-Ride. BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) -- She's carved her reputation on synthetics, winning the Hollywood Starlet (G1) and Oak Leaf (G1) and placing in the Juvenile Fillies and Darley Debutante (G1), but the formidable late runner is experienced on dirt, winning her first start by 13 1/4 lengths at Calder. Jerry Hollendorfer, who saddled Lite Light to a 10-length score in the 1991 Oaks, will look to return to the winner's circle with Blind Luck, who has earned BRIS Late Pace ratings as high as 114. SHE BE WILD (Offlee Wild) -- Probable champion two-year-old filly has raced exclusively on synthetics for Wayne Catalano, but the stalker will be given every opportunity to excel on dirt in Florida this winter. After capturing her first three career starts by daylight, she just missed when stretching out to two turns in the Alcibiades (G1) and then closed determinedly to post a three-quarter length victory in the Juvenile Fillies, registering a better BRIS Speed rating (94) than the Juvenile winner (93) a day later. She Be Wild is a threat to transfer her top-class form to any surface. SASSY IMAGE (Broken Vow) -- Dale Romans filly has won her last three starts at Churchill Downs in style, cruising to a 3 3/4-length tally in the Golden Rod (G2) most recently, and the two-time graded winner merits serious respect given her affinity for the track. Her BRIS Speed ratings are a little low, but the chestnut can improve significantly in that area and nine furlongs appears well within the scope of the stalker. QUIET TEMPER (Quiet American) -- Another Oaks prospect in the Romans stable, Quiet Temper opened her career with three consecutive runner-up finishes in key maiden special weight events. She convincingly broke her maiden in the Delta Princess (G3), drawing clear by 7 3/4 lengths, and has now won two straight, easily capturing a one-mile-and-40-yards allowance/optional claiming event at Fair Grounds on January 3. Her BRIS numbers are first-rate, and Quiet Temper looks like a major factor in the sophomore filly ranks at Fair Grounds. Older horses: SUMMER BIRD will start the year on the sidelines in Hot Springs, Arkansas, recovering from recent surgery, but he's expected to be back in serious training by this summer. If he returns at full strength, the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Travers (G1) winner will add plenty to an older horse division that's lost its luster in the past few years. How bad was it in 2009? Vosburgh (G1) and Carter (G1) winner Kodiak Kowboy (Posse), an outstanding sprinter who would want no part of two turns except in a trailer, is an Eclipse Award finalist for champion older horse due to his victory in the Cigar Mile (G1). Another finalist, Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat), never won on the main track. Voters couldn't find any suitable alternatives in a year where Dry Martini (Slew Gin Fizz), Gitano Hernando (GB) (Hernando [Fr]) and Runforthedoe (Brz) (Our Emblem) all compiled major victories. The division should receive a much-needed infusion of talent from newly-turned four-year-olds like Quality Road (Elusive Quality), Regal Ransom, Blame (Arch), Misremembered (Candy Ride [Arg]), Midshipman (Unbridled's Song), Musket Man (Yonaguska), Kensei (Mr. Greeley), Papa Clem (Smart Strike), General Quarters (Sky Mesa), Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy), Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride [Arg]), Hold Me Back (Giant's Causeway) and Mine That Bird (Birdstone), so the outlook is much better for 2010.
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